Are AGS must-hit-by jackpots gaffed?
Poll
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24 members have voted
First, let me explain what a "Must-hit-by" jackpot it. It is a progressive jackpot that starts at a certain amount and must hit by a specified value. For example, in the picture I just posted, the Major must hit by $5,000 and the Minor one by $500. I have a whole page about the mathematics of them here: Mystery Progressives, which is what I called them at the time of writing. Today, most people seem to call them "must hit by" jackpots, which I will defer to for this thread.
Briefly, the way I assumed they worked at the time of writing that page was a trigger point was randomly chosen between the starting point and must-hit-by point. The probability distribution I assumed was uniform, meaning every possible value had the same chance.
With the introduction out of the way, I have heard from a few sources that such games by AGS deliberately don't let the jackpot hit until very close to the "must hit by" point the vast majority of the time. There is a good post about this at Advantage Play Slot Machines, which, by the way, is a very good site. That post claims that for jackpots that "must hit by" $5,000 rarely hit below $4990.
I am going to start collecting data to make my case. So far, I have only three games, which I know proves nothing, but I have to start somewhere. Here is that data
| Date | Casino | Game | Small | Large |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon* | $324.41 | $2,047.06 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon* | $278.15 | $2,048.22 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon* | $226.05 | $2,099.95 |
* Somebody has claimed there is no such AGS game by this name. I will return to verify the name of the machine.
I welcome any other evidence for or against this theory that AGS must-hit-by jackpots rarely trigger until nearly at the must-hit-by point.
The question for the poll is do you agree with the statement above?
Related thread: MUST HIT BY JACKPOT MATH QUESTION.
Quote: WizardI welcome any other evidence for or against this theory that AGS must-hit-by jackpots rarely trigger until nearly at the must-hit-by point.
Even if true, does that really mean they are "rigged" any more than another slot machine that is "rigged" to only pay out 90-cents of every dollar bet?
If one were to say this game can hit at any point, it's misleading and incomplete, knowing(truthfully safely assuming) they're heavily biased to go very, very late. The other style is considered fair, so this style must be considered unfair. This style is almost a con game, because the game is taking advantage of people, not the math.Quote: TomGEven if true, does that really mean they are "rigged" any more than another slot machine that is "rigged" to only pay out 90-cents of every dollar bet?
I dont think rigged is the right word but it appears hitting these before $4990 is like hitting the lottery, so there is a chance to keep the machines legal. It might even be rare before $4999.
Not taking sides and totally understand the Wizards position based on history, but sometimes forgiveness is possible in the Holiday season. Or the belief anything can happen is what makes Christmas special for some of us.
This makes no sense unless you mean you're passing on a message from a former poster. You didn't say they were banned, or whom it was, so I think that's ok, but I'm guessing it's Mickey Dee's Brother's Grimm if you can't read between the lines, which is also ok for me to say, because I'm being vague and cryptic.Quote: Boz
Not taking sides and totally understand the Wizards position based on history, but sometimes forgiveness is possible in the Holiday season. Or the belief anything can happen is what makes Christmas special for some of us.
Quote: onenickelmiracleThis makes no sense unless you mean you're passing on a message from a former poster. You didn't say they were banned, or whom it was, so I think that's ok, but I'm guessing it's Mickey Dee's Brother's Grimm if you can't read between the lines, which is also ok for me to say, because I'm being vague and cryptic.
You really should lay off the water bottle.
Not passing anything on, only stating facts about research I have observed. Knowing Mickey, yea Mickey like I do he probably would give me hell for even bringing it up. He knows why he was banned here, and never thought he didn’t deserve it.
But your post seems to match your recent pattern of pure nonsense. I miss the old 1.05miracle of the early 2000’s hanging out with the Golden Greek trying to beat Stinking Rich with the other Meet and Greeters and dreamers.
Quote: TomGEven if true, does that really mean they are "rigged" any more than another slot machine that is "rigged" to only pay out 90-cents of every dollar bet?
I think it is misleading to say something like, "This jackpot will hit between $2,500 and $5,000," when there is almost no chance of it hitting below $4,990. I admit there is no rule they are breaking, but it just doesn't seem kosher to me.
To make a comparison, suppose your favorite restaurant has a jar full of prize tickets. They claim it has 9999 losers and one that wins a car. For every paying visit you get to draw a ticket. With only 500 tickets to go nobody has won the car, so people are induced to eat there, for the 1 in 500 chance to win the car. However, the owner deliberately hides the winning ticket until there are only 50 tickets left and then slips it in. Wouldn't you feel a little cheated if you ate there because of the drawing when the jar was down to 500 tickets?
BTW, I get this example from an episode of Alice.
This is a personal insult.Quote: BozYou really should lay off the water bottle.
Not passing anything on, only stating facts about research I have observed. Knowing Mickey, yea Mickey like I do he probably would give me hell for even bringing it up. He knows why he was banned here, and never thought he didn’t deserve it.
But your post seems to match your recent pattern of pure nonsense. I miss the old 1.05miracle of the early 2000’s hanging out with the Golden Greek trying to beat Stinking Rich with the other Meet and Greeters and dreamers.
Quote: BozYou really should lay off the water bottle...But your post seems to match your recent pattern of pure nonsense.
Personal insult -- second recent offense -- 7 day suspension
Quote: Wizard
First, let me explain what a "Must-hit-by" jackpot it. It is a progressive jackpot that starts at a certain amount and must hit by a specified value. For example, in the picture I just posted, which is from a WMS game, the Major jackpot starts at $250 and must hit by $500. I have a whole page about the mathematics of them here: Mystery Progressives, which is what I called them at the time of writing. Today, most people seem to call them "must hit by" jackpots, which I will defer to for this thread.
Briefly, the way I assumed they worked at the time of writing that page was a trigger point was randomly chosen between the starting point and must-hit-by point. The probability distribution I assumed was uniform, meaning every possible value had the same chance.
With the introduction out of the way, I have heard from a few sources that such games by AGS deliberately don't let the jackpot hit until very close to the "must hit by" point the vast majority of the time. There is a good post about this at Advantage Play Slot Machines, which, by the way, is a very good site. That post claims that for jackpots that "must hit by" $5,000 rarely hit below $4990.
I am going to start collecting data to make my case. So far, I have only three games, which I know proves nothing, but I have to start somewhere. Here is that data
Date Casino Game Small Large 12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $324.41 $2,047.06 12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $278.15 $2,048.22 12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $226.05 $2,099.95
* Somebody has claimed there is no such AGS game by this name. I will return to verify the name of the machine.
I welcome any other evidence for or against this theory that AGS must-hit-by jackpots rarely trigger until nearly at the must-hit-by point.
The question for the poll is do you agree with the statement above?
Related thread: MUST HIT BY JACKPOT MATH QUESTION.
The name of the machine is River Dragons.
It’s River Dragon and Fire Wolf. I’m assuming they’re the same. I have also seen some other AGS must hits that play differently, have different starting points and have different meter movements.Quote: MaxPen
The name of the machine is River Dragons.
Bottom line, these AGS slots are awful. Don’t play them. Stay away from them. Don’t even bother looking at them.
Quote: WizardI think it is misleading to say something like, "This jackpot will hit between $2,500 and $5,000," when there is almost no chance of it hitting below $4,990. I admit there is no rule they are breaking, but it just doesn't seem kosher to me.
I think "rigged" is a terrible misrepresentation unless you are willing to say that almost all reel slot machines are rigged because the reels are weighted. There are 22 stops on a Megabucks 3 reel slot machine but the odds aren't 22^3 to hit the jackpots. Same with Wheel of Fortune. When you spin the overhead wheel the odds are not equal.
Quote: DRichI think "rigged" is a terrible misrepresentation unless you are willing to say that almost all reel slot machines are rigged because the reels are weighted.
I think everyone has been socialized into accepting weighted reels. However, yes, I would say those are rigged too.
Quote: WizardI think it is misleading to say something like, "This jackpot will hit between $2,500 and $5,000," when there is almost no chance of it hitting below $4,990. I admit there is no rule they are breaking, but it just doesn't seem kosher to me.
My thinking is that there might be 250 000 points where it could hit at. But each point doesn't have a 1 in 250 000 chance, the lower numbers might be 1 in 1 000 000, while the higher numbers are only 1 in 100 000 -- I would accept that as a viable way for the machine to maintain their advantage for the house
There is always an advantage for the house unless it's an accident, while always a short-term advantage is what you mean to say, besides when it is almost certainly ready to go off at the eleventh hour. It doesn't thwart APs, it thwarts pseudo APs considering the cat is now out of the bag. Depends if someone runs out of money and hope for the last few dollars. If a manufacturer does this, it's because they think the casino wants this, or to keep the overall payback lower because it doesn't hit as often. If a casino has these games, can you actually trust their slot director's attitude, maybe he or she will submit a payout change anticipating must hits getting close or when progressives getting positive, truly sinister, but I wonder because there are many dastardly people out there.Quote: TomGMy thinking is that there might be 250 000 points where it could hit at. But each point doesn't have a 1 in 250 000 chance, the lower numbers might be 1 in 1 000 000, while the higher numbers are only 1 in 100 000 -- I would accept that as a viable way for the machine to maintain their advantage for the house
| Date | Casino | Game | Small | Large |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $324.41 | $2,047.06 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $278.15 | $2,048.22 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $226.05 | $2,099.95 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $230.79 | $4,810.44 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $223.75 | $4,407.18 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $225.77 | $4,390.90 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $442.55 | $4,759.56 |
Note how the smallest of the large jackpots at the Linq is $4,390. However, it is also strange how the three Rampart jackpots are so low. Perhaps they just put them in and they haven't had much time to grow above the $2,000 starting point.
Quote: mcallister3200Wiz: many if not most river dragons by AGS have a 4k start point. Others, I think most of the Forest Dragons by AGS, start at 2k, but you will find some of these manufacturers machines start at 4k and others at 2k. Minor afaik is always 200-500.
Thank you. I did not know that.
| Date | Casino | Game | Small | Large |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $324.41 | $2,047.06 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $278.15 | $2,048.22 |
| 12/2/2018 | Rampart | Fire Dragon | $226.05 | $2,099.95 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $230.79 | $4,810.44 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $223.75 | $4,407.18 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $225.77 | $4,390.90 |
| 12/5/2018 | Linq | River Dragons | $442.55 | $4,759.56 |
| 12/9/2018 | Fremont | River Dragons | $283.43 | $4,038.51 |
| 12/9/2018 | Fremont | River Dragons | $352.48 | $4,780.54 |
| 12/9/2018 | Golden Nugget | Fire Dragons | $434.69 | $4,315.38 |
| 12/9/2018 | Golden Nugget | River Dragons | $242.24 | $2,631.92 |
| 12/9/2018 | Golden Nugget | Fire Dragons | $474.28 | $4,144.21 |
Date Large Casino Game
2-Dec 5794 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
4-Dec 5784 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
6-Dec 5838 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
7-Dec 5640 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
1/11 5659 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
2/11 5719 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
3/11 5717 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
5/11 5979 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
7/11 5770 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
9/11 5961 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
11/11 5965 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
14/11 5935 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
16/11 5770 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
19/11 5914 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
22/11 5754 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
24/11 5896 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
27/11 5847 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
30/11 5728 Asia Aristocrat 5Dragon Link
Also, these are banked machines, so maybe the banks on the strip have more machines connected together, which explains the higher meters?
Stations used to run a "Must Hit By" through all their properties. If a supposedly "random" event has to occur prior to a certain meter amount, how is that not "fixed"?
Quote: michael99000I would like to know if anyone has ever seen one hit within $10 of the minimum Must Hit By amount
At Emerald Island, I saw a woman hit two all red 7s within about forty minutes of the each other on one of those Jalapeno machines. All Gold is the bigger prize, but all Red is not too shabby. The first was for about $495. It resets at $250 and couldn't have gone up much before she hit it. I see the game laying fallow when the jackpots are pretty low, but when the Gold and Red get near the must hit bys they are packed.
Then 10 spins later hit again for $250.10
| Progressive | Large | Small |
|---|---|---|
| Seed | $4,000.00 | $200.00 |
| Must hit by | $5,000.00 | $500.00 |
| Meter rise | 0.266667% | 0.400000% |
| Return from seed | 1.128168% | 0.275487% |
| Total progressive return | 1.394835% | 0.675487% |
| Cycle ($) | $354,557.02 | $72,598.71 |
| Number $0.88 bets | 402,906 | 82,499 |
| Avg meter increase | $945.49 | $290.39 |
| Avg jackpot | $4,945.49 | $490.39 |
Note the Large jackpot will hit at $4,945.49 on average, confirming what was speculated, that the jackpots rarely hit until close to the must-hit-by point.
If the jackpot hit is completely random, one would assume the average meter would be halfway between the seed amount and the max, but it is not.
Quote: AyecarumbaSo, is the “hit point” on the meter randomly pre-selected from a certain range each cycle, or are there other forces at work?
I don't know. What I speculate is it is something like this:
Large jackpot has 1% chance of hitting below $4901 and 99% of hitting above.
Small jackpot has 1% chance of hitting below $483.80 and 99% of hitting above.
Whatever range is selected by the method above, the game will then randomly pick a hit point somewhere in that range along a uniform distribution (meaning all hit points in a specified range have the same chance).
For now, as a rough guide, I would not play these games unless the jackpots were at least as much as the bend points above.
Player A's chances of hitting the jackpot is how much higher? It sounds like 99 of the next 100 small jackpots should be on machines with payouts of $484. If that is expected, a player who only plays on machines above $494 has a much better chance of a jackpot than if he randomly played machines.
This is new to me, so excuse me if I'm off track.
Quote: billryanAm I understanding this correctly? A and B sit at side by side games. A's small jackpot is at $494. B's is at 260.
Player A's chances of hitting the jackpot is how much higher? It sounds like 99 of the next 100 small jackpots should be on machines with payouts of $484. If that is expected, a player who only plays on machines above $494 has a much better chance of a jackpot than if he randomly played machines.
This is new to me, so excuse me if I'm off track.
These machines are typically connected in "banks" so there might be 6 - 12 machines all pumping up the same shared jackpot. However, I think what your understanding of the "chance" is correct. The bigger the meter, the better your chance of a hit.
Quote:It sounds like 99 of the next 100 small jackpots should be on machines with payouts of $484. If that is expected, a player who only plays on machines above $494 has a much better chance of a jackpot than if he randomly played machines.
This is new to me, so excuse me if I'm off track.
I should emphasize that the 1%/99% thing was just speculating on it could be done to achieve the kind of average jackpots I posted. It seems consistent with anecdotal evidence of the large jackpot almost never hitting below $4900.
Quote: AyecarumbaThese machines are typically connected in "banks" so there might be 6 - 12 machines all pumping up the same shared jackpot.
I've never seen a must-hit-by machine in a bank with a linked progressive. Has anyone else?
Quote: WizardI've never seen a must-hit-by machine in a bank with a linked progressive. Has anyone else?
Definitely.
Quote: DRichDefinitely.
Definitely you have never seen one
Or definitely you have seen one
I am asking seriously. I couldnt tell from your answer
Quote: darkozDefinitely you have never seen one
Or definitely you have seen one
I am asking seriously. I couldnt tell from your answer
I have definitely seen shared progressive must hits. Usually limited to a pod or bank.
Quote: billryanAm I understanding this correctly? A and B sit at side by side games. A's small jackpot is at $494. B's is at 260.
Player A's chances of hitting the jackpot is how much higher? It sounds like 99 of the next 100 small jackpots should be on machines with payouts of $484. If that is expected, a player who only plays on machines above $494 has a much better chance of a jackpot than if he randomly played machines.
This is new to me, so excuse me if I'm off track.
This problem is trickier than it looks.
First, for a fair game, the odds of hitting are inversely proportional to your distance from the must-hit-by point. So, for a game where the jackpot can trigger at any point with equal probability, the machine with the $494 has a probability of hitting proportional to 1/6, and the one at $260 proportional to 1/240. Thus, the machine at $494 is (1/6)/(1/240) = 240/6 = 43.3 times as likely to hit.
Second, if we assume that 1% of the time the game will hit below $483.80, and a machine is observed at $260, I show there is a 1.0028% chance it will hit below $483.80. To make a long story short, I show the machine at $494 is 3719.5 times more likely to hit on the next spin, mainly because the machine at $260 has only a 1.0028% chance of being even possible to hit and even if it is possible, it doesn't mean it will on the next spin.
Quote: WizardThis problem is trickier than it looks.
First, for a fair game, the odds of hitting are inversely proportional to your distance from the must-hit-by point. So, for a game where the jackpot can trigger at any point with equal probability, the machine with the $494 has a probability of hitting proportional to 1/6, and the one at $260 proportional to 1/240. Thus, the machine at $494 is (1/6)/(1/240) = 240/6 = 43.3 times as likely to hit.
Second, if we assume that 1% of the time the game will hit below $483.80, and a machine is observed at $260, I show there is a 1.0028% chance it will hit below $483.80. To make a long story short, I show the machine at $494 is 3719.5 times more likely to hit on the next spin, mainly because the machine at $260 has only a 1.0028% chance of being even possible to hit and even if it is possible, it doesn't mean it will on the next spin.
So, what your saying is I should stick with video poker and its defined pay tables and probability of hands hitting and not going for this mysterious boondoggle? Cause my brain can only handle so much information before something falls out. Probably not in a good way either.
Quote: cmlotitoSo, what your saying is I should stick with video poker and its defined pay tables and probability of hands hitting and not going for this mysterious boondoggle? Cause my brain can only handle so much information before something falls out. Probably not in a good way either.
I wouldn't interpret what I'm saying that way. At a certain point, any must-hit-by slot must be over 100% in return. I'm just trying to help you know when that point is.
Quote: WizardI wouldn't interpret what I'm saying that way. At a certain point, any must-hit-by slot must be over 100% in return. I'm just trying to help you know when that point is.
I'll tell you what. Next 240k I get off of DSTP I promise to play a thousand on a must hit progressive. Honest.
Quote: WizardI've never seen a must-hit-by machine in a bank with a linked progressive. Has anyone else?
Betty White!
It also has the distinction of having the slowest meter rise I've ever seen. I think the 2k was going at .025%
Quote: sabreBetty White!
It also has the distinction of having the slowest meter rise I've ever seen. I think the 2k was going at .025%
What do you want?
Betty White is an old lady. Cant expect her to move fast
Quote: WizardI've never seen a must-hit-by machine in a bank with a linked progressive. Has anyone else?
I always thought the bank of machines all shared the same meter. I don't play alot of slots, so I haven't paid close attention.
Quote: AyecarumbaI always thought the bank of machines all shared the same meter. I don't play alot of slots, so I haven't paid close attention.
Is that game a must-hit-by?
NO.Quote: WizardQuote: AyecarumbaI always thought the bank of machines all shared the same meter. I don't play alot of slots, so I haven't paid close attention.
Is that game a must-hit-by?
Quote: WizardQuote: AyecarumbaI always thought the bank of machines all shared the same meter. I don't play alot of slots, so I haven't paid close attention.
Is that game a must-hit-by?
I'm not sure. But in this picture of another Quick Hit machine, all the machines have the same jackpot amounts. Maybe it is just a marketing ploy to call it "Quick Hit" when it isn's actually a "must hit by".
