Range Slots, especially Ainsworth, is there an upward bias on the Major?

I have been playing advantageous slots for some time, and with these (mostly Ainsworth brand) 10K majors I have occasionally played with a friend, I am seeing some awfully hard to believe data on the hit points. Like, in a nutshell, it's around 2/3rds of the way-to-the-goal that it hits on average. Maybe played 14-15 times. Not a real scientific result, because I'm only noticing after the fact.

Also, reading tweets on the internet stating that players are finding the AGS Slots are biased toward only paying in the way upper regions.

Two questions...1.) Am I crazy, or are other AP slot players noticing this too. 2.) Can they do this, like is it legal? I mean I see how they CAN do it easily with an algorithm, but, is it legal to say it can be randomly hit and then skew it this way.

FIRST POST.

Quote: Forrem

Two questions...1.) Am I crazy, or are other AP slot players noticing this too. 2.) Can they do this, like is it legal? I mean I see how they CAN do it easily with an algorithm, but, is it legal to say it can be randomly hit and then skew it this way.

FIRST POST.

Welcome to WoV!

The prevailing theory is that the machine picks a random coin-in amount for it to hit upon reset, which can be anywhere from the first necessary spin to the last.

In terms of it going high before hitting, I would suggest that (even as AP's) it's because we're not paying attention. For example, let's say there's one with a meter that runs all the way from $350-$500, are you REALLY paying attention to any jackpot for which the first number is anything but a four? I'm not. If the second number is anything but an eight or a nine, then I don't care at all.

In other words, I could walk into a casino one day with a specific unit at $388.84, then walk in the next day with it at $352.75 (which means it hit at some point but may not have gotten really high before it did...hell, maybe it hit multiple times) and I'm not going to notice something like that. In essence, we end up with our own sort of confirmation bias because we are only paying any attention to them when they are already high.

Beyond that, as you mentioned, 14-15 occasions is an extremely limited sample size. Another thing it neglects is the mean average hit point, which could be well under 66% even if it goes to 66%+ more often than not for you in your sample.

I don't think it would be legal to call something that is not random random, but who knows? If the machine, "Randomly," picks a hit point, technically nothing is random after the point at which the hit point was selected, even though the hit point itself was selected randomly. In other words, given a certain bet size and where the meter is at v. where it has been selected to hit, the probability of hitting it with a given spin is either 0% or 100%...though the player doesn't know which.

Quote: Mission146

In terms of it going high before hitting, I would suggest that (even as AP's) it's because we're not paying attention. For example, let's say there's one with a meter that runs all the way from $350-$500, are you REALLY paying attention to any jackpot for which the first number is anything but a four? I'm not. If the second number is anything but an eight or a nine, then I don't care at all.

In other words, I could walk into a casino one day with a specific unit at $388.84, then walk in the next day with it at $352.75 (which means it hit at some point but may not have gotten really high before it did...hell, maybe it hit multiple times) and I'm not going to notice something like that. In essence, we end up with our own sort of confirmation bias because we are only paying any attention to them when they are already high.

I think most Must-Hits are biased to the top end and it is completely legal and still random. Just because something is random doesn't mean it is equally likely. Think about Megabucks, it is random and yet each symbol is not equally likely. I have never designed a must hit slot but if a did I would definitely weight it to the top end.

Quote: DRich

I think most Must-Hits are biased to the top end and it is completely legal and still random. Just because something is random doesn't mean it is equally likely. Think about Megabucks, it is random and yet each symbol is not equally likely. I have never designed a must hit slot but if a did I would definitely weight it to the top end.

Do you think it's on such a sliding scale that, assuming it is at $488.00 and the must-hit is $500 that the point is more likely to be $494.00+ rather than anything less than that? I suppose it could be.

Jena Choctaw pines casino in Dry Prong, Louisiana seems to have these installed in large numbers.
Great food and great rum, I'm told. Haven't been there.

I was told that there are some that can't/won't hit before a certain point. Not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I definitely don't think the OP is crazy.

I would ask Mamant what his results have been.

Probably the best 1st post on here in a long time.

Not sure if the NBA still does it this way, but the worst team got 16 balls in the hopper, next got 15, and so on, until the best non-playoff team got 1. Then they would draw for pick order in the draft.

Any team could still win first selection rights. The drawing was random. But the likelihood was heavily weighted towards the worst teams getting high draft order picks.

I figure the must-hits have a similar bias towards higher jackpot numbers before hitting. But I don't program them, so I don't know that.

Thanks for the warm welcome, guys.

Quote: AxelWolf

I was told that there are some that can't/won't hit before a certain point. Not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I'm thinking this AGS Gaming's might be one of those must hits that has no chance of hitting before a certain point, but I haven't played them.

And, just to clarify, my data is only on the Ainsworth's Majors that go from 9,000 - 10,000. Here is more specifically what I found after analyzing the data

18 plays (I've included my friends solo plays, so it's higher that my 14-15 plays I mentioned earlier).

Average HIT point: 69.2% of the way!

15 of 18 went over 50%-to-the-goal.
3 of 18 went under 50%-to-the-goal.

The chance of only 3 or fewer favorable "before 50%" hits on the way to 10,000 - if the odds are not skewed to the upper end - are only about 1 in 265! I'm going to say right upfront: I believe Ainsworth is doing this on their 10K majors. Yes, once in 265 trials this would be happening. But I've also heard anecdotally from a few APs their results are similar.

This TOTALLY would change the starting point for playing these 10K majors, and I think it is deceptive (probably legal though) and I don't like that skewing may be happening on some machines and not on others. I don't think certain minors skew at all.

Quote: AxelWolf

I would ask Mamat what his results have been.

Thanks Axel.

Haven't looked at any data for about 2-3 years, but Ainsworth 10Ks seem to be pretty uniform from $9,000 to 10,000 (average movement within 1% of 50%)...and the return is pretty close to theoretical (within 1%). If you get a chance to look at machine summary pages, the lifetime actual return is usually within 0.5% of theo.

Know six people who've dropped one on 1st spin, and heard of seven 10,000 drops (meaning 9,999.xx rounded up).
Also looked at percentage dropping in first 10%, and last 10%, and they seem comparable.
You could do a complete decile comparison - first 10%, 2nd 10%, ..., last 10% to see how flat it is, but I haven't bothered.

In 2017, I dropped 11 10Ks within first 20K coin-in (+30 on major), slightly higher than expected (9).

Variance on Ainsworth 10Ks: 15-25 game losing streaks are fairly common.
I'd say looking at any data less than 50 games is very random.
Sometimes you get a streak of fast drops, other times a streak of 9,999, 9,997, 9,995.

Never bothered to analyze Ainsworth $5K, $500 major (or minor), $400 major, or $200 minor. So don't know.

Note: Never seen an Ainsworth 10K meter at anything other than $667, but I have seen a 5K meter at $2,000 (got whomped on that one chasing the minor, which had a $667 meter).
10K minor meters can be $250 or $222 or (who knows). ALWAYS check your meters.

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AGS 5Ks are another beast.
Personal guess is 97% drop 4,990-5,000 (uniform within that), and 3% earlier. Likewise for the minor (97% drop 490-500).
There just aren't any 4,989 and 489 drops...

Machine settings on two different themes - combined progressives are 2.07% (would be 4% if uniform, 2% if always went to 5,000 & 500).

However, there is no guarantee that other AGS machines are not set at 2.07%.

P.S. I have never seen an early AGS drop (major or minor), but a friend claims he's seen two early majors and played six early minors.

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Heard a guess that Konami 5Ks and 10Ks are biased high (but never seen any analysis).

Hate the $2K, $5K, $10K Konamis because the variance is so high, so I rarely ever play them.

Quote: AxelWolf

I was told that there are some that can't/won't hit before a certain point. Not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I would doubt that, but they could set the likely hood to 0.0000000000001%

Quote: Mission146

Do you think it's on such a sliding scale that, assuming it is at $488.00 and the must-hit is $500 that the point is more likely to be $494.00+ rather than anything less than that? I suppose it could be.

I am not going to try to guess at what numbers other programmers have chosen but if I as writing the code at least 50% of the time it would be hitting near the very top of the range.

Quote: DRich

I would doubt that, but they could set the likely hood to 0.0000000000001%

Close enough to me. In that case, I would have to have AlanM watch me play so he could see it happen a bunch of times in a row. Crap, I forgot, what Alan sees happen won't help me a lick since it never really happens.

Quote: mamat

Thanks Axel.

Haven't looked at any data for about 2-3 years, but Ainsworth 10Ks seem to be pretty uniform from $9,000 to 10,000 (average movement within 1% of 50%)...and the return is pretty close to theoretical (within 1%). If you get a chance to look at machine summary pages, the lifetime actual return is usually within 0.5% of theo.

Know six people who've dropped one on 1st spin, and heard of seven 10,000 drops (meaning 9,999.xx rounded up).
Also looked at percentage dropping in first 10%, and last 10%, and they seem comparable.
You could do a complete decile comparison - first 10%, 2nd 10%, ..., last 10% to see how flat it is, but I haven't bothered.

In 2017, I dropped 11 10Ks within first 20K coin-in (+30 on major), slightly higher than expected (9).

Variance on Ainsworth 10Ks: 15-25 game losing streaks are fairly common.
I'd say looking at any data less than 50 games is very random.
Sometimes you get a streak of fast drops, other times a streak of 9,999, 9,997, 9,995.

Never bothered to analyze Ainsworth $5K, $500 major (or minor), $400 major, or $200 minor. So don't know.

Note: Never seen an Ainsworth 10K meter at anything other than $667, but I have seen a 5K meter at $2,000 (got whomped on that one chasing the minor, which had a $667 meter).
10K minor meters can be $250 or $222 or (who knows). ALWAYS check your meters.

-----
AGS 5Ks are another beast.
Personal guess is 97% drop 4,990-5,000 (uniform within that), and 3% earlier. Likewise for the minor (97% drop 490-500).
There just aren't any 4,989 and 489 drops...

Machine settings on two different themes - combined progressives are 2.07% (would be 4% if uniform, 2% if always went to 5,000 & 500).

However, there is no guarantee that other AGS machines are not set at 2.07%.

P.S. I have never seen an early AGS drop (major or minor), but a friend claims he's seen two early majors and played six early minors.

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Heard a guess that Konami 5Ks and 10Ks are biased high (but never seen any analysis).

Hate the $2K, $5K, $10K Konamis because the variance is so high, so I rarely ever play them.

Awesome analysis mamat; thank you.

Your numbers give me hope that we have just being very unlucky with the Ainsworth 10Ks and where they've hit. Of course 18 plays is not a proper sample. Going 69.2% of the way on average is dishearting when you think of how unlikely that is even with just 18 plays. Within 1% of 50%, for you huh? That is soooooooo NOT a skewed result that I have to believe we've just been unlucky now (only other thing could be jurisdictional differences).

One thing that gives me hope is that I see other players who are supposedly winning who start even earlier us and on average and they seem in the black from even more plays than us. Just from observation they don't seem to be getting our badly skewed results. These folks never complained about long term terrible late average hits (some of these crude "AP"s look like they wouldn't know how to keep records, let alone know how to do analyses though!)

I'm going to keep playing them while using our relatively conservative start points, so again, thank you mamat.

Quote: Forrem

...our relatively conservative start points.

I consider 106% conservative. In 2011-2013, 106% would have been hyper-aggressive.

1st number = return of the game (including pts, and whatever else...)
2nd number = when this game is 106%
Assumes Ainsworth $10K meter is $667. (If it's $2,000, don't use this table.)

85% 9,874
86% 9,869
87% 9,863
88% 9,856
89% 9,849
90% 9,841

91% 9,832
92% 9,822
93% 9,811
94% 9,798
95% 9,784

96% 9,767
97% 9,747
98% 9,724
99% 9,696
100% 9,661

I think Ainsworth 10Ks were released in late 2011 or early 2012...
In 2013, 115% was easy to find, and 110% was all over the place.
In 2015, you could still play conservative (106%).
Haven't played any 10Ks in 5 months, but was playing 102.5% before I quit.
Tried 101.5-102.0% for 7 months, and didn't like the variance.
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Highest find heard about was 9,982 (257%). Three 9,960s (164-167%). Highest I've found 9,920 (128%).
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Vegas people are hyper-aggressive. They play 98.5% (sub-100%) for casino benefits.
Vegas 10Ks are mostly 90% & 91%. Never played a Vegas 10K major.
Rampart Casino has 0.5% pts, and 5x pts days (2.5% pts).
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Themes have different variance. With a higher variance, you might want to start higher.

Treasure trove, mamat, what can I say..

Quote: mamat

I consider 106% conservative.

Let's just say, based on your criteria, we've been very close to conservative. LOL. My calcs closely matched yours so that's good. Our meters are all $667 and $250 (Major/Minor).

I guess I won't be making any special trips to Vegas to play these any time soon: 90 and 91% on $1 machines? Yuck...even worse, probably never finding an even near-conservative play.

I echo what you said about these when they came out. A lot easier to find a juicy meter (obviously on the minor more often) back in the day of 2013. Nowhere near as often these days.

You can imagine how hard it is to try and stay conservative with these; not getting many plays. Lot more of the 1 and 2% players and some that have no hope with a negative starting point --- perfectly put "playing for the casino's benefit".

Quote: Forrem

Our meters are all $667 and $250 (Major/Minor)

Multi-Win 10Ks are often $667 and $222. I haven't looked much at $8K Ainsworths.

I've been on A-G-S/C-J Majors when a $481 and $454 Minor dropped. The $454 was great because the minor was supposed to end at around $470 - $475 by the time we hit the major. The $481 was not great because we would have preferred a $499.99 drop. That's 2 before $490 out of 50+ we've done.

We had heard a lady was on a Major and it "didn't drop". Eventually the slot techs did something and she got paid a few hours later. I didn't understand what that means until it happened to us. My buddy is spinning at $4991 and we hear the music. The game then won't let him spin anymore. We're like, hmm. We look up and sure enough the Major up top now says $4000.00 but the big graphical box isn't on screen.

So the attendant comes over. Doesn't understand what we mean. Then a slot tech comes over. He's useless. Then we have all 3 slot supervisors and they can't figure it out. There's nothing in the game log history that says that it hit. Well guess what? We had just hit a minor on the machine next to it and nobody had played since. They look in there and there's a log entry - EXT Bonus $494. Then there's an EXT Tab where they go and it lists the spin that triggered the minor. Cool, just find that same thing on our Major machine. Nope, nowhere to be found. The last EXT Bonus was our $454 minor. So no internal log of it triggering either. WTF this is not looking good for us.

It's been an hour now and they say they're going to have to do an investigation. The main slot tech then restarts the machine. After boot up the music re plays and the graphic "Major Progressive Won $4991.17" now appears on screen. And we get an apology and our money.

What a complete shit manufacturer.

Welcome to WOV! :D I don't know if this is related to what you are saying, but I recall someone on a gambling website saying something like,"The Must Hit said Must Hit by $500. I hopped on it at $490 and assumed it was ready to pop any imminent spin. I lost $600 before it finally hit at $498. So I ended up about $100 down chasing the "Very close," Must Hit by slot."

Thank you all for the info and experiences. It's true that these AGS slots all go the distance. I have played 4 minors that all hit at $494+ and 1 major that hit at $4996. I have seen at least two others that went to $4999. While it seems that the fix is in on them, they are at least consistent. I played one last night and it was only about a 12% hold on the coin in. Free games come up often enough and are often retriggered.

These Ainsworths however are crazy. They often do hit early, however the problem is the hold. My last 3 have seen hold percentages in the 30-45% ranges. The base games pay so poorly. The hit rate is very bad. You often go 10+ spins without any line pay. They are so dependent on free games. One bonus round you'll make $600, the next, $15.

From time to time locally, quarter and dollar Ainsworth majors become available but I'm unable to tolerate the risk. One is $4928/$5000 now, guy about ready to croak imo. The value dealing these machines isn't worth the time trying to get them.

Quote: BTLWI

It's been an hour now and they say they're going to have to do an investigation. The main slot tech then restarts the machine. After boot up the music re plays and the graphic "Major Progressive Won $4991.17" now appears on screen. And we get an apology and our money.

I had a similar problem on an AGS 5K Fire Wolf when they first were released. Slot Techs had to inspect the machine to see why the $5K jackpot wasn't registering properly.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Thank you all for the info and experiences. It's true that these AGS slots all go the distance. I have played 4 minors that all hit at $494+ and 1 major that hit at $4996. I have seen at least two others that went to $4999. While it seems that the fix is in on them, they are at least consistent. I played one last night and it was only about a 12% hold on the coin in. Free games come up often enough and are often retriggered.

These Ainsworths however are crazy. They often do hit early, however the problem is the hold. My last 3 have seen hold percentages in the 30-45% ranges. The base games pay so poorly. The hit rate is very bad. You often go 10+ spins without any line pay. They are so dependent on free games. One bonus round you'll make $600, the next, $15.

Probably the AGS drops 97% between 4990-5000 and 490-500, and 3% pre-4990 and pre-490.

Worst paybacks I've had on $1 Ainsworths (for over $10K coin-in) were 17% and 28% (83% & 72% hold). Best have been 130-140%+ (not including major).
Panda King has the most stable bonus rounds - no really big ones, but very very few tiny ones. Dollar Chief has some of the highest variances in bonus rounds.

Konami holds can be even lower than Ainsworths.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

From time to time locally, quarter and dollar Ainsworth majors become available but I'm unable to tolerate the risk. One is $4928/$5000 now, guy about ready to croak imo. The value dealing these machines isn't worth the time trying to get them.

5Ks are +/- 20K. 10Ks are +/- 30K. ...at 103% (even higher if playing 98-99% for mailers).

Recommended quarter-Kelly bankrolls for conservative play are roughly $250K for 5Ks, $500K for 10Ks (but it depends heavily on when you play).

$5k must hit.
meter was at $4890.
he was quick pressing at max bet meaning he didn't let the reels spin.
press then press again immediately to see the results.

2hrs later, he was at $4900.xx
at that rate, he's going to be there for 20hrs if it goes to $4990+.


that got me thinking about how much $ I need to bring incase it goes to $4990+?

Quote: 100xOdds

$5k must hit.
meter was at $4890.
he was quick pressing at max bet meaning he didn't let the reels spin.
press then press again immediately to see the results.

2hrs later, he was at $4900.xx
at that rate, he's going to be there for 20hrs if it goes to $4990+.


that got me thinking about how much $ I need to bring incase it goes to $4990+?

15k

Quote: mcallister3200

15k

wow.. so that person will be taking a $10k loss if it goes all the way to $4990+?
so he started waaaay too soon?

My understanding is that a lot of the value is in lower hits as you play so you don't end up a net loss 10k of a 15k br, but I don't claim to understand the math of chasing progressives.The idea (afaik) is to lose some while you chase if you have to, but end up net ahead something once the progressive hits, probably not the whole 5k either.