Jim123
• Posts: 20
Joined: Dec 7, 2009
August 21st, 2017 at 11:12:50 AM permalink
How does one go about estimate the virtual reel weightings of a slot machine by observing the outcomes of the game?

Also large of a sample size does one need to closely approximate the outcomes?

Could you give me an example please.

Thanks,

Jim
Jim123
• Posts: 20
Joined: Dec 7, 2009
August 22nd, 2017 at 8:47:59 AM permalink
/games/slots/appendix/1/

what I am referring to is this article, where mike estimates the reel weightings of a double strike machine by playing it roughly 4000 times, but i would like more clarification of how he comes up with the count on each symbol coming out to the estimated reel weighting of each symbol.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6465
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
August 22nd, 2017 at 10:41:14 AM permalink
Quote: Jim123

/games/slots/appendix/1/

what I am referring to is this article, where mike estimates the reel weightings of a double strike machine by playing it roughly 4000 times, but i would like more clarification of how he comes up with the count on each symbol coming out to the estimated reel weighting of each symbol.

I have a feeling the assumption of 128 stops per reel is incorrect; it looks like he is actually assuming 72.

Assuming that there are 72 stops per reel - and there is no way to tell exactly how many stops a reel has, other than looking at the slot machine's (very proprietary, and very closely guarded, from what I am led to believe - except that a "multi-line" machine "should" have one stop per symbol) information sheets - divide the number of times a particular symbol appears by the number of spins (in this case, 3976), and then multiply by the assumed number of stops on the reel (in this case, 72).
Jim123
• Posts: 20
Joined: Dec 7, 2009
August 22nd, 2017 at 10:58:30 PM permalink
I think your right he mistakenly put 128 stops when his virtual reel only has 72!

Thanks for the clarification.

Jim
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
August 22nd, 2017 at 11:24:31 PM permalink
Speaking of this, do machines have the same virtual stops on all 3 reels, assuming the reels are all identical? Like a double diamond, blazing sevens, etc. Or can each reel be weighted differently?

Can the JP symbol have a 2.5% chance on first feel, 1.5% on second, and 2% on third reels? Or do they all have to be the same likelihood?

Of course this can't be true for all machines, since not all machines have the same symbols on all reels. Stuff like 3x-4x-5x doesn't have 5x on first or second reel, 4x on first reel, etc. For the life of me I can't think of the name of another machine I'm thinking of, but there's a blue' sh symbol in third reel only and when you hit it, you go into a bonus round where you have 3 or 4 chances at picking. There's values above ranging from like \$10 to \$1,000, and you can either "take offer" or "try again".
CrystalMath
• Posts: 1911
Joined: May 10, 2011
August 23rd, 2017 at 6:22:55 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Speaking of this, do machines have the same virtual stops on all 3 reels, assuming the reels are all identical? Like a double diamond, blazing sevens, etc. Or can each reel be weighted differently?

Can the JP symbol have a 2.5% chance on first feel, 1.5% on second, and 2% on third reels? Or do they all have to be the same likelihood?

Of course this can't be true for all machines, since not all machines have the same symbols on all reels. Stuff like 3x-4x-5x doesn't have 5x on first or second reel, 4x on first reel, etc. For the life of me I can't think of the name of another machine I'm thinking of, but there's a blue' sh symbol in third reel only and when you hit it, you go into a bonus round where you have 3 or 4 chances at picking. There's values above ranging from like \$10 to \$1,000, and you can either "take offer" or "try again".

All the reels can be different.

It sounds like you're thinking of Top Dollar.
I heart Crystal Math.
Jim123
• Posts: 20
Joined: Dec 7, 2009
August 24th, 2017 at 8:27:03 AM permalink
So in the example of 72 stop three reel machine, how many observations does one need to get a representative sample size?
ThatDonGuy