Must Hit By Progressive Question

Greetings all, I have been a long time lurker (since 2010) on the forums and have finally decided to take the plunge into posting something. For my first post I wanted to get some input from the Forums on a question I had about Must Hit By Progressives. I am the furthest thing from an AP. I like to visit my local casino once a month and plunk away at the slots and maybe play a little Video Poker to switch things up.

With that being said, my local casino has some of the Ainsworth Must Hit By Progressive machines (Thunder Cash, Mustang Money, etc.) in the high limit room at the $1 level (Major starts at $9,000 and will hit by $10,000, Minor Starts at $350 and will hit by $500) . I have reviewed the great write-up that the Wizard has on calculating the Target Point for when the Major and Minor Progressives would put the machine in +EV territory. As I said I am the furthest thing from an AP but if in my monthly visit to the Casino I happen to spot one of these machines where the progressive makes it +EV why not throw my money into that. So here is my question - how do you calculate the bankroll required to have a reasonable chance of hitting the progressive (Major or Minor)? I would like to understand the bankroll necessary to withstand the variance you could experience on these machines while chasing the progressive. It will not change my play but it would be good to understand how to calculate this. As a corollary to this question, if you are chasing one of these progressives what is the best bet level to play at (the machines I reference above have a bet range from $10 - $100 a spin)? My gut tells me the $10 per spin level gives you the best chance to survive the possible variance you would encounter.

I seem to remember a thread from last year that discussed the bankroll calculation issue but I have not been able to track it down.

Thanks in advance for responses!

Bankroll will depend heavily on (1) your starting point (2) machine settings (Ainsworth $5K/10K machines in the wild have been reported at 85-97%), (3) meter movements, (4) different themes have different variances (and wildly different bonus round variances) (5) whether you play 1-2-3-5-10-15-20 lines (6) whether or not your casino closes overnight...so you might lose the machine when it reopens on the next day

Typical meter movements are $667 & $250 to move $1 (Some newer ones have $667 & $222).
However, on a $5K Ainsworth, I once saw $2,000 & $667 meters. Beware...

For repeated play at competitive levels, I recommend $500K for majors, $100K for minors (20X maximum loss on one game).
For one try, $50K for major, $15K for minor should be ok 99%+ of the time.
-> My personal worsts: $35K+ to drop a major, $10K to drop a minor.

Theoretically, $10K might only move a major by +$15 ($667 meter), or a minor by +$40 ($250 meter).
-> My personal worsts: Twice 10K only moved major +17-22.

On a minor, if you play at 490, $2K should be enough for one play.
-> At 480, $4K is recommended
-> At 470, $5K-6K recommended

The most conservative people play $1-3 for multiple days to drop a major (working in teams).
The most aggressive person max-bets $100 all the way (A guy we call the "doctor")

Two things to balance:
(1) Lowering variance (2) Profit per hour

Good luck.

P.S. If you only want a "reasonable chance" to drop a major/minor, rather than a "play to the death" approach...just adjust for the % chance you want...

Thanks, Mamat I appreciate the response. At my local casino Thundercash for example has a meter rate of $10 coin in for a $0.02 increase for the major and a $0.04 increase for the minor. The big variable for me is what the return is set at. I suspect it is 94% but of course I have no where near enough spins to make that a statistically valid assumption nor am I smart enough to deconstruct it like the Wizard can. That being the case if the minor was sitting at $485 for Thundercash - my coin in required to hit at that level would be $3,750 "playing to the death". How do you move from the coin-in number to a bankroll? I typically play this machine at $10 a spin (10 lines for $1 per line). If I took 6% of the $3,750 and come up with $250 that just seems too low to account for variance I could experience. Appreciate any additional thoughts.

I suspect your local meters are the standard $667 $250. $30 coin-in should move the major $3 (rather than $4, as a $500 meter would).

Even 100,000 coin-in will only give you the return +/- 30-40%.
The variance on each game is different. Konami 10Ks have much higher variance than Ainsworth 10Ks.

Meter rates tell you NOTHING about variance.
Tracking actual reel behavior will tell you about variance, but it's a lot of data collection.

-----
Second time I played a 489 (back in 2011-2012 when I had no idea what machine settings were), I lost -$800 to -$1,300 betting mostly $5 (It's been so long that I can't remember whether I lost -$1,300, or whether I spent -$1,300 to drop the minor). I vowed never again to play anything below 491... (which didn't last).

I've seen a friend lose on a 496.xx (possible $750-1,000 coin-in).

On the flip side, I know three people who've dropped a $10K major on their first bet.
And two who've dropped 10K majors while betting $1.
Some people like to do their Free Play on Ainsworths betting $1. Often 5 of the best symbol pays $1,000.

Quote: sltploppy

How do you move from the coin-in number to a bankroll?

Without actual variance numbers from a PAR sheet (manufacturer) or an actual machine (from configuration screens), you can gather data about actual losses to estimate an RoR.

What I often use for bankroll is 20x worst loss (99-percentile-loss, or 99 in 100 losses are less than this "worst loss").
You could use a different multiplier (5x, 10x, 20x) and work with a different loss-level (80-percentile-loss, 90-percentile-loss, 95-percentile-loss).

Most people on this discussion board prefer working with SDs (standard deviations),
but I find percentile-losses more useful for real-world unknown distributions (slots are often not univariate normal distributions, especially ones with bonus rounds).

-----
So if you played a 485 (@250 meter), 3750-500=3,250 is the absolute worst loss (with zero line-pays).

When you play at $10/spin (10 lines x 1, 5 lines x 2, 3 lines x 3, 2 lines x 5, 1 line x 10),
what is the bankroll you should have for a certain level RoR?

Unfortunately, the answer will vary widely depending on the 85-97% setting.
94% would be quite high. When in doubt, assume on the lower-end for safety.

With my 20x method. If my 99-percentile loss at 485 was $2,000 (rather than 3,250), I would suggest a $40,000 bankroll.

There is also the issue of "implied bankroll". If you have $10,000 to gamble, but you have a $60,000/yr job which can replenish your bankroll, you can play as if you have a larger "implied bankroll" of $20K-40K+.

-----
In practice (over the past 5-6 years), a lot of pros/semi-pros who have tried to play Ainsworth majors/minors have gone broke because they drastically underestimated bankroll requirements. Most pros avoid them because they are so risky, or only play at very high numbers (yearly profit is low, due to very few plays).

The level to play (100%, 105%, 110%, etc...) depends on local competition & players. What level will maximize yearly EV (for your area)?

I've been on a -20K to -30K losing streak on Ainsworth minors for the past six months.
On majors, I've been on 7-month & 12-month losing streaks. Luckily got out of the last one recently.

The bankroll requirements are designed to keep you afloat during really bad luck.

Quote: sltploppy

Thanks, Mamat I appreciate the response. At my local casino Thundercash for example has a meter rate of $10 coin in for a $0.02 increase for the major and a $0.04 increase for the minor. The big variable for me is what the return is set at. I suspect it is 94% but of course I have no where near enough spins to make that a statistically valid assumption nor am I smart enough to deconstruct it like the Wizard can. That being the case if the minor was sitting at $485 for Thundercash - my coin in required to hit at that level would be $3,750 "playing to the death". How do you move from the coin-in number to a bankroll? I typically play this machine at $10 a spin (10 lines for $1 per line). If I took 6% of the $3,750 and come up with $250 that just seems too low to account for variance I could experience. Appreciate any additional thoughts.

Probably closer to 90% for base game play. You don't need to know how much it will take to get it if you already play $10/spin just for fun. All you need to know is how much the casino will allow you to cash checks in a day, how much your credit cards will allow, etc. I swear never saw a minor abandoned over $486.

There are people who think that that the money left isthe dollar amount that they need to play. For example, if it says,"Major must hit at $8,000 and it says "7500" they actually have the innocent naivety to think,"Well, I have $500. I'll just put $500 and I will win the big $8,000 jackpot!" And then tell off a poor casino employee when they lose their money and the meter only goes up a few cents/dollars.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I swear never saw a minor abandoned over $486.

When I started playing, I waited until 491-497. Tried 489 twice.
It was a different time. People left majors at 9850-9880+ almost every month (2011-2014).

More recently, one person was playing three machines at once for $100/spin.
Gave me a 495, and said "it'll hit soon". :-)

On the QuickStrike $500 majors, one friend played a 499.88 (which a lady abandoned, Theo $48 coin-in to drop).
Played max, got a $400 bonus, and dropped the major.