"Must Hit By" progressives for dummies

I was on another board and Montana seems like the place to go. Check out Mickey Crimm on gamblers forum. I can't quote him here, but it's a good read.

It indeed is - cheers!

sniff sniff

Quote: Vlad3Tetes

I still don't fully understand when the right time to strike is..

Just after I leave the machine.

Quote: mickeycrimm

The way I come up with playable numbers is not really complicated at all. I'll do a hypothetical game here to show you how I do it:

We have a Mystery Progressive with two meters on it. The lower meter is $50 to $100, the upper meter is $500 to $1000. Both meters run at 2%.

1. I guesstimate the overall payback of the game at 90%. I could be a couple of points off either way on this number but in the end I will have my butt covered, which I will explain later.

2. Clock the meters. I've already clocked them at 2%.

3. Now I want to know how much of the payback the lower meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $75. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $1250 (25 X 50) in action to move it to that number. Then I divide $75 by $1250 to get 6%. I subtract that from the overall payback of 90% to get 84%.

4. Now I want to know how much of the payback the upper meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $750. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $12500 in action (250 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $750 by $12500 to get 6%. Then I subtract that from 84% to get 78%.


So now I know I'm racing against a 22% drop.

5. I generally like somewhere around a 10% edge so I know I got my butt covered if the overall payback is a couple of points below where I put it. In the case of the lower meter, where most of the plays come from, I just pick an arbitrary number and do the math. In this case $88. Jumping into the game at that number means the average hit would be $94. Since it is a 2% meter it would take $300 in action (6 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $94 by $300 to get 31.3333%. I add that to 78% to get 109.3333%.

I would jump into this game anytime I find the lower meter at $88 or higher. I would also have some equity in the upper meter, but not much as I'm going to quit when I hit the lower meter.
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I’m following this okay up to point 5 then I get lost.

Can someone please explain this to me in simpler terms?

How does Mickey determine it will take $300 in action and that it would hit at $94 (on average) if he started playing it at $88?

Thank you!!

Update: Someone has kindly helped me understand this in DM’s. I am a new member here and unsure of the culture and politics of this forum, but I will err on the side of caution and trust my intuition and respect that some member’s of this forum may not want certain information clarified publicly or out in the public domain. Therefore, I will not clarify my new understanding of this particular problem on here, however if you are also struggling to comprehend Mickey’s working, please feel free to DM me and I will pass it forward.

Thanks again to the member who kindly (and succinctly) explained Mickey’s working to me.

Quote: Roberto21

Quote: mickeycrimm

The way I come up with playable numbers is not really complicated at all. I'll do a hypothetical game here to show you how I do it:

We have a Mystery Progressive with two meters on it. The lower meter is $50 to $100, the upper meter is $500 to $1000. Both meters run at 2%.

1. I guesstimate the overall payback of the game at 90%. I could be a couple of points off either way on this number but in the end I will have my butt covered, which I will explain later.

2. Clock the meters. I've already clocked them at 2%.

3. Now I want to know how much of the payback the lower meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $75. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $1250 (25 X 50) in action to move it to that number. Then I divide $75 by $1250 to get 6%. I subtract that from the overall payback of 90% to get 84%.

4. Now I want to know how much of the payback the upper meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $750. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $12500 in action (250 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $750 by $12500 to get 6%. Then I subtract that from 84% to get 78%.


So now I know I'm racing against a 22% drop.

5. I generally like somewhere around a 10% edge so I know I got my butt covered if the overall payback is a couple of points below where I put it. In the case of the lower meter, where most of the plays come from, I just pick an arbitrary number and do the math. In this case $88. Jumping into the game at that number means the average hit would be $94. Since it is a 2% meter it would take $300 in action (6 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $94 by $300 to get 31.3333%. I add that to 78% to get 109.3333%.

I would jump into this game anytime I find the lower meter at $88 or higher. I would also have some equity in the upper meter, but not much as I'm going to quit when I hit the lower meter.
link to original post

I’m following this okay up to point 5 then I get lost.

Can someone please explain this to me in simpler terms?

How does Mickey determine it will take $300 in action and that it would hit at $94 (on average) if he started playing it at $88?

Thank you!!

Update: Someone has kindly helped me understand this in DM’s. I am a new member here and unsure of the culture and politics of this forum, but I will err on the side of caution and trust my intuition and respect that some member’s of this forum may not want certain information clarified publicly or out in the public domain. Therefore, I will not clarify my new understanding of this particular problem on here, however if you are also struggling to comprehend Mickey’s working, please feel free to DM me and I will pass it forward.

Thanks again to the member who kindly (and succinctly) explained Mickey’s working to me.
link to original post

The person you quote is banned here, for threatening the owner's life. I suspect few things piss the owner off more than people quoting him here. If the member who sent you the information didn't warn you about this, I would be suspect of whatever information he passed along. It seems like he might be more interested in stirring up trouble than being of help.

Quote: billryan

Quote: Roberto21

Quote: mickeycrimm

The way I come up with playable numbers is not really complicated at all. I'll do a hypothetical game here to show you how I do it:

We have a Mystery Progressive with two meters on it. The lower meter is $50 to $100, the upper meter is $500 to $1000. Both meters run at 2%.

1. I guesstimate the overall payback of the game at 90%. I could be a couple of points off either way on this number but in the end I will have my butt covered, which I will explain later.

2. Clock the meters. I've already clocked them at 2%.

3. Now I want to know how much of the payback the lower meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $75. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $1250 (25 X 50) in action to move it to that number. Then I divide $75 by $1250 to get 6%. I subtract that from the overall payback of 90% to get 84%.

4. Now I want to know how much of the payback the upper meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $750. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $12500 in action (250 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $750 by $12500 to get 6%. Then I subtract that from 84% to get 78%.


So now I know I'm racing against a 22% drop.

5. I generally like somewhere around a 10% edge so I know I got my butt covered if the overall payback is a couple of points below where I put it. In the case of the lower meter, where most of the plays come from, I just pick an arbitrary number and do the math. In this case $88. Jumping into the game at that number means the average hit would be $94. Since it is a 2% meter it would take $300 in action (6 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $94 by $300 to get 31.3333%. I add that to 78% to get 109.3333%.

I would jump into this game anytime I find the lower meter at $88 or higher. I would also have some equity in the upper meter, but not much as I'm going to quit when I hit the lower meter.
link to original post

I’m following this okay up to point 5 then I get lost.

Can someone please explain this to me in simpler terms?

How does Mickey determine it will take $300 in action and that it would hit at $94 (on average) if he started playing it at $88?

Thank you!!

Update: Someone has kindly helped me understand this in DM’s. I am a new member here and unsure of the culture and politics of this forum, but I will err on the side of caution and trust my intuition and respect that some member’s of this forum may not want certain information clarified publicly or out in the public domain. Therefore, I will not clarify my new understanding of this particular problem on here, however if you are also struggling to comprehend Mickey’s working, please feel free to DM me and I will pass it forward.

Thanks again to the member who kindly (and succinctly) explained Mickey’s working to me.
link to original post

The person you quote is banned here, for threatening the owner's life. I suspect few things piss the owner off more than people quoting him here. If the member who sent you the information didn't warn you about this, I would be suspect of whatever information he passed along. It seems like he might be more interested in stirring up trouble than being of help.
link to original post

Consider speaking about situations you know about as opposed to suspecting. Mr Crimm is helping the Wizard with Cashman Bingo thread.

I'd respond, but I'm allergic to gutless shills who create a new id every time they want to say something.

First of all, I would like to apologise for quoting a banned member. I was not aware of the backstory.

As per my previous post, I believe I understand step 5 now. But I have been thinking about this, and I’m planning to try to take this one step further to a hypothetical step 6, whereby one can calculate the EV in the upper-tier progressive to calculate a more precise edge for the lower tier progressive. I will set out my example below. I cannot see Mickey’s exact step’s in front of me, so this replication may differ slightly to his own.

Step 1: Estimate the overall theoretical RTP of the machine. In this case it is known value of 92.34% (0.9234).

Step 2 (a): Calculate the meter increment for the lower-tier jackpot (or ‘progressive’), let’s call it the ‘Minor’ with a MHB range of $750.00-$1000.00. We know the meter increment is 0.2% (0.002), that is, it increases by 1c for every $5 wagered.

Step 2 (b): Calculate the meter increment for the higher-tier jackpot (or ‘progressive’), let’s call it the ‘Major’ with a MHB range of $9000.00-$10,000.00. We know the meter increment is the same as the Minor (i.e. 0.2%).

Step 3 (a): Calculate the jackpot contribution from the RTP for the Minor. Using Mickey’s method, we add the lower and upper limit together ($750 + $1000) and divide by 2 to get the average trigger value (e.g. $875). Next, we take 125 (how many dollars the jackpot will increase before it hits on average, playing it at $750.00) and multiply it by 500 (the 0.2% meter) to get 62,500. Next we divide 875 by 62,500 to get 1.4% (the Minor jackpot contribution from the RTP).

Step 3 (b): Calculate the jackpot contribution from the RTP for the Major. Again, using Mickey’s method, we add the lower and upper limit together (9000 + 10,000) and divide by 2 to get the average trigger value (e.g. $9500). Next, we take 500 (how many dollars the jackpot will increase before it hits on average, playing it at 9000.00) and multiply it by 500 (the 0.2% meter) to get 250,000. Next we divide 9500 by 250,000 to get 3.8% (the Major jackpot contribution from the RTP).

Step 4: Now we subtract the RTP contribution’s from the Minor and Major jackpot (i.e. 5.2%) from the overall RTP (i.e. 92.34%) to see we are running against a 12.86% drop (therefore an 87.14% base game payback).

Step 5 (a): Now assume we are only playing for the Minor, which is currently sitting at $966.00, if we want to calculate the EV for this jackpot in isolation from the Major, we would add 966 and 1000 and divide by 2 to get the average trigger value (starting play at $966.00) to be $983.00. Next, we take the difference between 1000 and 966 (e.g. 17) and multiply that by 500 (the 0.2% meter) to get 8500. Next we divide 983 by 8500 to get 11.56% (the RTP contribution from the Minor) and add that to our base game payback of 87.14% to get 98.7% (i.e. a 1.3% house edge).

As we can see, the Minor jackpot at $966.00 is a negative EV play, without regard to what the major is at. However, this is where my hypothetical ‘Step 6’ comes in. If we know the the Major is at $9400.00, for example. Can we add the EV of that jackpot to the EV of the minor to make the $966.00 Minor a positive EV play? E.g. To show the working: (9400 + 10,000) / 2 is 9700. 300 x 500 is 150,000. 9700 / 150,000 is 6.5% (i.e. the Jackpot contribution from the Major) and add that to our base game payback (87.14%) AND our RTP contribution from the Minor (11.56%), we are left with 105.2% , a +5% edge. So this same play has gone from a -1.3% edge to a + 5.2% edge, is that correct?

So, on average, a player can expect to make money on this play (with the Minor @ $966.00 and Major @ $9400.00), assuming they stop playing as soon as the Minor is hit?

Quote: billryan

Quote: Roberto21

Quote: mickeycrimm

The way I come up with playable numbers is not really complicated at all. I'll do a hypothetical game here to show you how I do it:

We have a Mystery Progressive with two meters on it. The lower meter is $50 to $100, the upper meter is $500 to $1000. Both meters run at 2%.

1. I guesstimate the overall payback of the game at 90%. I could be a couple of points off either way on this number but in the end I will have my butt covered, which I will explain later.

2. Clock the meters. I've already clocked them at 2%.

3. Now I want to know how much of the payback the lower meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $75. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $1250 (25 X 50) in action to move it to that number. Then I divide $75 by $1250 to get 6%. I subtract that from the overall payback of 90% to get 84%.

4. Now I want to know how much of the payback the upper meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $750. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $12500 in action (250 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $750 by $12500 to get 6%. Then I subtract that from 84% to get 78%.


So now I know I'm racing against a 22% drop.

5. I generally like somewhere around a 10% edge so I know I got my butt covered if the overall payback is a couple of points below where I put it. In the case of the lower meter, where most of the plays come from, I just pick an arbitrary number and do the math. In this case $88. Jumping into the game at that number means the average hit would be $94. Since it is a 2% meter it would take $300 in action (6 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $94 by $300 to get 31.3333%. I add that to 78% to get 109.3333%.

I would jump into this game anytime I find the lower meter at $88 or higher. I would also have some equity in the upper meter, but not much as I'm going to quit when I hit the lower meter.
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<snip>

The person you quote is banned here, for threatening the owner's life. I suspect few things piss the owner off more than people quoting him here. If the member who sent you the information didn't warn you about this, I would be suspect of whatever information he passed along. It seems like he might be more interested in stirring up trouble than being of help.
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i dont think mickey threatened the Wiz to get himself banned.
i think Mickey wrote racial slurs during one of his drunken nights that got him banned.

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: billryan

The person you quote is banned here, for threatening the owner's life. I suspect few things piss the owner off more than people quoting him here. If the member who sent you the information didn't warn you about this, I would be suspect of whatever information he passed along. It seems like he might be more interested in stirring up trouble than being of help.
link to original post

i dont think mickey threatened the Wiz to get himself banned.
i think Mickey wrote racial slurs during one of his drunken nights that got him banned.
link to original post

I don't think this is particularly relevant to machine progressives.