"Must Hit By" progressives for dummies
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 | 4 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 15 votes (57.69%) | ||
| | 3 votes (11.53%) | ||
| | 4 votes (15.38%) |
26 members have voted
I still don't fully understand when the right time to strike is.
Also, it seems like there are 2 types of these machines?
An information sheet at the casino, assuming it's accurate, says:
1-5 cent slots are 9%
25 cents are 6%
1 dollar are 5%
I'm not sure if these apply to these progressives.
Given this information, how would I figure out when to hit the jackpot.
I saw a couple threads where mission breaks it down in long form math, but remember this is
Must Hit Progressives for Dummies.
We have the usual 100, 500, 1000. Maybe 250?
I know part of the calculation requires how much the meter rises.
I'm still learning, and I don't have all that information yet. I'm not even sure I can figure it out watching the machine lol.
I'm new to slots, so this is all foreign to me.
I saw one today that was must hit by 100, and it was at 96 something. 3 max bets later and POW!
Right in the kisser!
It seemed pretty easy, maybe I just got lucky.
Any links to previous threads that have good info or any help in learning when to hit these progressives is appreciated.
I put the vote because some threads suggested these machines were not as easy as they seem to gain an advantage.
Quote: onenickelmiracleWhat casino gives out such information? Eastern Europe I'm guessing. You need to know the starting points and generally at about 90% of the way there. Just basically expected gain minus expected cost.
There are states in the US that require this information to be posted. The first place I remember seeing it was in Iowa.
The first thing you need to know is the meter rise. With no one else playing on that bank of machines. Take note of what the meter is at and play exactly $10. Now check the meter and see how much it went up. For an example let's just say it went up 5 cents. In your example the meter was at $96 and had to hit by $100. The worst case scenario is that you have to play enough to get the meter to $100. The fact that it goes up 5 cents for every $10 played we can calculate that the most you have to play is $800 which is (($100-$96)/0.05)*$10. I believe in your example you said the penny games had a 9% hold so $800x9%=$72 that is how much you should expect to lose before you hit the jackpot if it goes all the way to $100.
Quote: DRichI will try to give a very simple explanation:
The first thing you need to know is the meter rise. With no one else playing on that bank of machines. Take note of what the meter is at and play exactly $10. Now check the meter and see how much it went up. For an example let's just say it went up 5 cents. In your example the meter was at $96 and had to hit by $100. The worst case scenario is that you have to play enough to get the meter to $100. The fact that it goes up 5 cents for every $10 played we can calculate that the most you have to play is $800 which is (($100-$96)/0.05)*$10. I believe in your example you said the penny games had a 9% hold so $800x9%=$72 that is how much you should expect to lose before you hit the jackpot if it goes all the way to $100.
Anyone knows the answers to the following questions relating to "must hit"/"maximum" progressives on linked slot machines -
1. We know that these are awarded only when the machine is played, hence when we hit the spin button are 2 things actually happening? i.e. 1) the main game where the RNG generates a win/lose result and 2) there is a separate mechanism to determine if the progressive is won; OR is the progressive win factored into the "main game" RNG?
2. In most cases, I believe the first scenario is more likely which brings me to the next question - Do bigger bets (higher denom/more credits per line) increase the probability of a hit?
3. When such meters reach the maximum amount, does it mean that the progressive will be awarded on the first spin which gets the meter to that amount OR does it simply mean that the meter stop but the odds of hitting the progressive remains the same?
The reason why I am asking this is because if the bet size does not change the odds of the progressive being awarded and the jackpot WILL be awarded before or when it hits the cap, doesn't it make sense to play a few machines linked to the progressive at the lowest possible bet and the highest possible speed when the progressive meter is at about 95-98%? e.g. on a 1c Aristocrat type slot machine, most players would play a minimum 25-30 credits for all reels but we can also play 1c for just 1 line and keep our hands on the button and instead of burning 2500 credits ($25) for 100 spins, we can churn out the same number of spins for just $1.
Quote: yy888888Anyone knows the answers to the following questions relating to "must hit"/"maximum" progressives on linked slot machines -
1. We know that these are awarded only when the machine is played, hence when we hit the spin button are 2 things actually happening? i.e. 1) the main game where the RNG generates a win/lose result and 2) there is a separate mechanism to determine if the progressive is won; OR is the progressive win factored into the "main game" RNG?
2. In most cases, I believe the first scenario is more likely which brings me to the next question - Do bigger bets (higher denom/more credits per line) increase the probability of a hit?
3. When such meters reach the maximum amount, does it mean that the progressive will be awarded on the first spin which gets the meter to that amount OR does it simply mean that the meter stop but the odds of hitting the progressive remains the same?
The reason why I am asking this is because if the bet size does not change the odds of the progressive being awarded and the jackpot WILL be awarded before or when it hits the cap, doesn't it make sense to play a few machines linked to the progressive at the lowest possible bet and the highest possible speed when the progressive meter is at about 95-98%? e.g. on a 1c Aristocrat type slot machine, most players would play a minimum 25-30 credits for all reels but we can also play 1c for just 1 line and keep our hands on the button and instead of burning 2500 credits ($25) for 100 spins, we can churn out the same number of spins for just $1.
sure you could spin for $0.01 at any point but if it is a linked game then you run the risk of someone sitting down and getting it before you. A $0.01 spin could literally take you 3 hours to move it $1. Also some of the must hits are after a winning game only so by playing 1 line it would be much longer between wins.
FWIW, most must hit machines that I have seen don't let you bet $0.01. They have the preset bet amounts like $0.35 or $0.40 as the min.
Quote: GWAEsure you could spin for $0.01 at any point but if it is a linked game then you run the risk of someone sitting down and getting it before you. A $0.01 spin could literally take you 3 hours to move it $1. Also some of the must hits are after a winning game only so by playing 1 line it would be much longer between wins.
FWIW, most must hit machines that I have seen don't let you bet $0.01. They have the preset bet amounts like $0.35 or $0.40 as the min.
At our local casino, Aristocrat games like 5 dragons for e.g. has a 1 credit for just 1 line played on their "mystery jackpot" or similar type of machines with capped progressives. And if I can know for sure bet sizes are not a factor (I know you can still win on the smallish bets as I have recently won a $93 (capped at $250) mini jackpot playing only 3 of 5 reels on Fortune Foo), and that the jackpot will be paid out as it approaches the cap for the tier, I would reduce my bet to the lowest possible in order to spin as many times as I can without making a big dent to my bankroll. Even though someone else may hit it, but if I am on "even ground", i.e. bet size is independent and winning spin is irrelevant, it would not be too much of a loss to use this strategy. It will also not take very long for the meter to move as other players are betting much higher to push it closer to the cap. I hope you know what I am getting at. :)
Quote: Vlad3TetesGiven this information, how would I figure out when to hit the jackpot.
I know part of the calculation requires how much the meter rises.
I'm still learning, and I don't have all that information yet. I'm not even sure I can figure it out watching the machine lol.
I saw one today that was must hit by 100, and it was at 96 something. 3 max bets later and POW! Right in the kisser!
It seemed pretty easy, maybe I just got lucky.
If it was a linked progressive that 96 to 100 may have happened on several machines.
I will say one thing: don't look for fancy math on the final meter advance. The programmers do not want vulnerability, so it goes to final meter advance and advances to 100 for show.
I think you better do that long form math and figure out just what it takes to get that 'must hit' meter moving.
Quote: DRichThe ones that I am familiar with from the past choose a winning progressive amount right at meter reset. The winner is the player that causes the meter to hit the designated number. In that scenario, if you are the only player playing, the bet size will not make a difference. if multiple people are playing it is better to bet the maximum because that way you are contributing more to the meter and will be more likely to be the person that forces it to its target number.
Thanks! I think I get what you mean now. So I gather every time the progressive resets, a random amount for that progressive is set and basically the larger the bet, it is more likely for it to hit the meter first since it is "pushing" the meter up at a greater rate. This also brings in timing and luck and also technically if you are able to throw in more spins near the designated hit point, your chances increase too?
100 pennies bet will put 1 cent in the meter.
10000 pennies bet will put $1 in the meter.
250000 pennies bet would put $25 in the meter.
So when the meter is at reset the RNG is selecting a random coin number between 1 and 250000.
Quote: BTLWIIf you read the help screens they often state that a higher bet increases your odds of winning the mystery progressive - which would mean it's not a fixed set point but basically a math check with every wager.
Not necessarily. Higher bets also increase the meter by more (they are usually either a percentage of the bet, or a percentage of the win)
However, I think that a fixed point would be illegal (in Nevada, anyway) since the result would be determined before the spin. But I may be misunderstanding the law there.
Mathematically, whether it is a fixed point that's picked randomly at reset time, or a calculation that's done on each spin is irrelevant -- they are identical for all intents and purposes, so it's not worth worrying about.
Quote: mickeycrimmyy888888, on these Mystery Progressives you are trying to bet a specific coin number. At reset an RNG selects a random number within the parameters of the meter. In the case of a penny slot where the meter runs between $25 and $50.... and runs at 1%....we can calculate the numbers of pennies bet to drive the meter from $25 to $50:
100 pennies bet will put 1 cent in the meter.
10000 pennies bet will put $1 in the meter.
250000 pennies bet would put $25 in the meter.
So when the meter is at reset the RNG is selecting a random coin number between 1 and 250000.
If you find a playable number and the machine is not linked to other machines you can set your bet level to whatever you are comfortable with because no one else can win the progressive. But my strategy on a linked bank is to bet max coins as fast as possible. I'll even play two machines if I can. You are trying to bet a specific coin number. If I am betting in blocks of 450 coins as fast as the machine will play, and my opponent is betting just 45 coins at a slow rate, they have almost no chance to beat me to the progressive.
Quote: onenickelmiracleInteresting how mickey put it. I always wondered how bets could be eligible between penny meter movements and this explains it.
I got the clue how these Mystery Progressives work the first time I encountered them, which was at the Mandalay Bay opening. The name they had hung over those banks of machines was "Lucky Coin Bonus System." The first two words "Lucky Coin" gave me the clue.
We have a Mystery Progressive with two meters on it. The lower meter is $50 to $100, the upper meter is $500 to $1000. Both meters run at 2%.
1. I guesstimate the overall payback of the game at 90%. I could be a couple of points off either way on this number but in the end I will have my butt covered, which I will explain later.
2. Clock the meters. I've already clocked them at 2%.
3. Now I want to know how much of the payback the lower meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $75. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $1250 (25 X 50) in action to move it to that number. Then I divide $75 by $1250 to get 6%. I subtract that from the overall payback of 90% to get 84%.
4. Now I want to know how much of the payback the upper meter represents. I add the lower parameter and the upper parameter together then divide by 2 to get an average hit of $750. Since the meter runs at 2% it would take $12500 in action (250 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $750 by $12500 to get 6%. Then I subtract that from 84% to get 78%.
So now I know I'm racing against a 22% drop.
5. I generally like somewhere around a 10% edge so I know I got my butt covered if the overall payback is a couple of points below where I put it. In the case of the lower meter, where most of the plays come from, I just pick an arbitrary number and do the math. In this case $88. Jumping into the game at that number means the average hit would be $94. Since it is a 2% meter it would take $300 in action (6 X 50) to move it to that number. Then I divide $94 by $300 to get 31.3333%. I add that to 78% to get 109.3333%.
I would jump into this game anytime I find the lower meter at $88 or higher. I would also have some equity in the upper meter, but not much as I'm going to quit when I hit the lower meter.
I keep wondering if it's worth trying on linked machines for 50 or 500 (which are pretty common across this casino), or if I should pick one like Zuma in the back which is not linked, when the bonus stands at 480 (250/500) for example, assuming it's available. It seems like in general people are saying that 85-90% payouts and 0.6% meter rise are common for this vendor.
I am rolling this around in my head along with the synopsis of Million Dollar Slots where the key factor appears to have been a high % meter rise (like 5-6%) and large jackpots. Others have said in the US it's more like 1-2%, so this 0.6% is rather pathetic. I'd need to win about 330$ to guarantee the 50$ above (starting at 48), but I might lose 30-40$ doing so plus there is a chance someone else will win it instead. Even if it's +EV, it's very small. Is it even worth the effort?
Now, I am wondering if there are decent online casinos with mystery progressives where a +EV can exist? I would assume they are linked to all players of that game so that the odds are poor of actually getting the jackpot for a single player even with timing. In the casino at least you are at a seat and there is a limit to who can play at a given time (or in the case of non-linked machines, you can monopolize it). Traveling far and wide to find high % meter games is not something I can do. It does seem like the manufacturers realized the issues with bonus vultures and have killed most of that incentive?
I am in Nevada and I anticipate the online offerings are probably not much better than physical casinos. Does anyone have a recommendation for where to look online or in Reno, if there are games with above-average meter rise or other positive factors? I am now very aware of the meters as I walk around the casino, but still a bit lost.
Anyway, what is the reasoning that I rarely see max jackpots over $400? In my mind I think if the progressive is randomly set between 250 and 500 we should see just as many machines nearing 500 as we see for example the 300-350 range which it seems is where most are seen. By my estimate there are total of around 200 of these machines in the casinos I visit and I'd say at any one time less than 5 are over $400.
Perhaps its that most of the machines are just not getting enough play? Because most of them do seem to sit idle. Or is there something else I'm missing.
When you do get on one at lest say $450 (not suggesting that's a good number) your going to complain and say this."what is the reasoning that when I play any "must hit by" progressives at $450 it always seems to go to $499 before it hits."Quote: kingdomofsalildIn my area the most common "must hit by" progressives are the ones where the mini jackpot must hit by $50 and max by $500. I think the resets are $25 and $250, they are not the WMS but another machine I can't remember by what manufacturer.
Anyway, what is the reasoning that I rarely see max jackpots over $400? In my mind I think if the progressive is randomly set between 250 and 500 we should see just as many machines nearing 500 as we see for example the 300-350 range which it seems is where most are seen. By my estimate there are total of around 200 of these machines in the casinos I visit and I'd say at any one time less than 5 are over $400.
Perhaps its that most of the machines are just not getting enough play? Because most of them do seem to sit idle. Or is there something else I'm missing.
All the combined "randomly" selected coin in/out number that triggers the progressive has a better chance of being selected. IE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1-8 will be selected more often but each individual number has the same chance.
if somehow it seems 5 & 6 are getting chosen more often it could just be coincidence.
Not sure if the Progressive coin in/out hit point number has to be weighted fairly. If not well there you have a possible answer.
Don't forget, people are attracted to the higher numbers, people who find higher numbers often stay longer chasing until they hit. This will be a contributing factor to what you are perceiving.
Quote: kingdomofsalildAnyway, what is the reasoning that I rarely see max jackpots over $400? In my mind I think if the progressive is randomly set between 250 and 500 we should see just as many machines nearing 500 as we see for example the 300-350 range which it seems is where most are seen.
That's wrong. You are forgetting that when the jackpot is hit at a high number, it has to go through all the low numbers to get there, but when it's a low number, it never goes through the high ones. So, the amounts you see will be skewed towards the low end.
@ $450 that fire is your money burning.Quote: BTLWIHalf of the local ones have a "fire" graphic
I have no knowledge of the actual programming, this is just my theory, so take it for what you will. But I noticed that there were far too many of the jackpots that hit very close to the maximum amount for it to be a simple random amount chosen between the low and high numbers. So I figured it must be something like this...
for the $25 must hit by $50 progressive, 25.01 would get 1 entry into "the draw", if you will. 25.02 would get 2 entries, and so on all the way to $50.00 would get 2,500 entries. Then a random number would be chosen between 1 and the sum 1+2+3+4....+2500.
This would skew the jackpot hit number to the higher end which is consistent with what I see a lot. (Expected hit would be 41.67).
Like I said.. I have no idea, but this seems to be consistent with how WMS works.
Now my story.. I was at WinStar in OK and saw a Kronos machine with the small progressive at $48.75. There was someone playing it, so I sat behind him and just waited a bit.... when the progressive got to $48.92, he said to his friend he was going to try a looser machine, so he got up and moved.
I gave his friend about 15 seconds to take the machine, and he didn't, so I sat down and starting betting $2 a spin. Within 10 spins, I lined up the first four reals all with the warrior guy (fifth wheel didn't hit). That got me $400 for the spin, then the small progressive for somewhere in the $51 range AND the large progressive for about $400. Total win on the spin was around $850.
Note that I said the small progressive got me $51..... my win was large enough to go over $50 and it keeps climbing for your entire win so that you get the progressive accumulation for your entire win. Then it reset to exactly $25.
I live here in lv and rarely find these things at a good minor let alone major. Even hustlers jump on too early.
Quote: djatcYou have to hope they tap out of money, which at betting 40c a spin you'll never wait out.
You will want to kill yourself rather than wait people out playing minimum bet. Okay, not kill, but you really need a good hobby if you want to hang out waiting for some to leave.
I've come back after dinner and a movie and seen people still trying to take down the high meter at minimum bets.
Quote: AxelWolf@ $450 that fire is your money burning.
Today I saw one at $472.1X. I passed on it since the chart Wizard has showed it as not playable. 15 min later I walked by and someone was sitting there taking a picture. I looked down and she won the major at $472.21. It made me sad.
Quote: GWAEToday I saw one at $472.1X. I passed on it since the chart Wizard has showed it as not playable. 15 min later I walked by and someone was sitting there taking a picture. I looked down and she won the major at $472.21. It made me sad.
Yea but you did the right thing not playing and will lose long term playing at that level. But that doesn't make it any easier when what you observed happens.
Quote: onenickelmiracleMust hits I hate because they always suck. I liked it better when meters were better and people never knew a good machine. No practical reason for the machines to even blink anyways when they do besides setting up a victim of the casino.
You're just pissed because that woman's been playing Eagle Bucks for 72 hrs.
I put her expected loss at north of 30k.
I'm not quite getting your reference.Quote: sabreYou're just pissed because that woman's been playing Eagle Bucks for 72 hrs.
I put her expected loss at north of 30k.
Quote: rsactuaryI noticed that there were far too many of the jackpots that hit very close to the maximum amount for it to be a simple random amount chosen between the low and high numbers. So I figured it must be something like this...
for the $25 must hit by $50 progressive, 25.01 would get 1 entry into "the draw", if you will. 25.02 would get 2 entries, and so on all the way to $50.00 would get 2,500 entries. Then a random number would be chosen between 1 and the sum 1+2+3+4....+2500.
This would skew the jackpot hit number to the higher end which is consistent with what I see a lot. (Expected hit would be 41.67).
Did anyone ever figure out if they use a system like the above? Or are all numbers between the min and must go equally likely to be picked?
While I'm not 100% sure, I can make an argument at least for the idea that when the jackpot resets, the machine picks a random number in the range with all being equally likely. The argument I could make is if it were skewed higher, then we'd see A LOT MORE 45 out of 50's, 90 out of 100's, 480 out of 500's, and so on. I went through a spurt where I learned everything I could about these and dedicated probably more of my time than they're worth. I can tell you first hand from my experience I've seen them hit at every point in the spectrum pretty fairly.Quote: BTLWIDid anyone ever figure out if they use a system like the above? Or are all numbers between the min and must go equally likely to be picked?
Even if the point were raised as in your quote... so the average was like "41...." it would be a moot point. In general after discovering the "cost per penny" or the "meter rate" I doubt you'll find a meter rate where it would be a play before that point anyways. Most need to be over 45, or over 90, etc... So even if the average was higher you're still over the average and within a +EV scenario all the same.
Not really.Quote: BTLWIWell it changes the percentage payback of the major/minors. For example on a $9000-10000 major with $6.25 per movement there's almost a percent difference if you use 9500 or 9666 as the average hit point.
Say you have a $100 must hit that moves at $1 per penny on the meter. It starts at $50 and is currently at $90... So what's the MAX coin in you might have to do? $10 in pennies... or 1,000 pennies.
1,000 pennies at $1 per penny is $1,000 in coin in on the machine. If the machine pays back 90% then you can expect to lose 90% of your $1,000 coin in.
EV = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (1000)*(-.10) = -$100
Thus, $90 is the "break even" point of the machine. I hope you see here this has literally nothing to do with the "Average Hit Point," to which again I don't believe exists. If the average hit point was $70, then you're way past that and should play. If the average hit point is $95, then it doesn't matter because your EV is at a break even point given worst case you have to put in $1k action at a 10% HE. Of course variance could do wonders, but this "average hit point" you refer to is erroneous.
minor %
major %
Those will add up to 90% but if you're not going to hit the major you shouldn't include it's full % in the 90%. So if we have bg = 83%, minor = 1%, major = 6% then you need to multiply your average coin in by 83%, maybe 83.1% (since we're slightly freerolling the major) when chasing a minor. Mickey showed how to do all that work (thank you Mickey ) so doing it here is redundant. Then you add in the true payback % of the minor based on where it is now and the average payback spot. If it's over 17% then you have a profitable play, if it's over 25% then you have a worthwhile play.
Anyway, back to my query, if the average hit point is weighted higher (66.7% instead of 50%) then that is going to change the minor, major, and base game numbers as well as the profitability of any given major/minor numbers.
Oh I'm aware that was a generic number. Most states have a MINIMUM base game payback of 85%, which in the states I play in I've verified and I use 85% payback on the base game for all of my calculations. Anything higher is just a bonus at that point because I have more important things I'm usually doing than mapping the reels.Quote: BTLWIWell, using 90% is wrong...
Just my opinion it seems for now, but I still don't believe in an average hit point. Just played one off last night and was lucky enough to win the minor in about 10 spins. I've seen all kinds of machines hit on the first spin and the last possible spin. I've heard (and believe) that when the jackpot resets a random number generator is used to select the next payout value and that's what it is, thus if you're really looking for an average it would be the "half way theory" and be 50% of the bottom to top bonus. But the half way theory is relative to where the meter is at, so it moves with the meter.
Example... minor that starts at $50 and must hit by $100... Average hit mark would be $75. Now if you come across the machine when it's at $80, you can treat the average as 50% of the remaining window since it's "random." This means if you ALWAYS start playing this game when you see it at $80, then for your experience the average it will hit at is $90. This also makes sense because you're never playing the game before $80, so anything below that ever hits is erroneous to your scope.
So you're saying if it's at $98 then on average it'll hit by $99 and you should calculate your coin in for just $1 in action instead of $2? I would think this is very similar to using the half way theory to decide when to even play the machine. Also, if I'm +EV at a worst case scenario, should just be gravy after that.Quote: RSI don't buy the theory that you gotta calculate how much coin in you gotta do until it hits at the must-hit point (i.e.: meter is at $98, movement is 0.25%, must hit by $100, then do $2/0.0025 = $800 coin in). You should be calculating the expected amount of coin in you'd gotta do, NOT the worst-case-scenario.
Quote: RomesSo you're saying if it's at $98 then on average it'll hit by $99 and you should calculate your coin in for just $1 in action instead of $2? I would think this is very similar to using the half way theory to decide when to even play the machine. Also, if I'm +EV at a worst case scenario, should just be gravy after that.
I don't know about the half-way theory. Don't have an opinion for nor against it. I don't know how/when/why/what makes the progressive go off. But I'm certain you aren't expected to hit it when the meter hits $100, you expect to hit it before that, so calculating it as I described before cannot be accurate.
But yes, if it's +EV on a worst-case scenario, then it's all gravy, and much safer to do it that way.
That's the whole point of the previous example. It shows the worst case scenario. I didn't mean that was the ONLY time I'd play the machine. I've played machines that were below that threshold. It's a good perspective and I think good information to go in "knowing" you have an advantage though... Given "worst case" is break even so to say (not counting mailers, etc).Quote: RS...But yes, if it's +EV on a worst-case scenario, then it's all gravy, and much safer to do it that way.
Quote: RomesThat's the whole point of the previous example. It shows the worst case scenario. I didn't mean that was the ONLY time I'd play the machine. I've played machines that were below that threshold. It's a good perspective and I think good information to go in "knowing" you have an advantage though... Given "worst case" is break even so to say (not counting mailers, etc).
Without giving up any secrets and excluding mailers, can you provide a reason to play when the worst case is less than break even? Is play through for ADT a reason to risk a little, or tier points to gain benefits a consideration?
Then without giving too much away, I'll just say... Yes. =PQuote: BozWithout giving up any secrets and excluding mailers, can you provide a reason to play when the worst case is less than break even? Is play through for ADT a reason to risk a little, or tier points to gain benefits a consideration?
Another simple example... As RS said, that's the absolutely worst case last penny. How many times do you really think you're going to make it to that point? Sure, it happens (and has happened to me more than I wish =/) but I've also had plenty of times I pull a few times and BAM hit it. So to always assume the worst is certainly safe, but certainly not correct. In the long run of things it'll average out to much lower than the "worst case scenario" which is why sometimes if you have other good reasons you can play them prior to that threshold.
Obviously you wouldn't want to play a mini(unless you can find a bunch of them) for ADT. You want to get something that's going to get some good amount of coin in. Unless you get lucky and snap it off quickly. Now you got to make a decision if you want to find something else and put more coin in.Quote: BozWithout giving up any secrets and excluding mailers, can you provide a reason to play when the worst case is less than break even? Is play through for ADT a reason to risk a little, or tier points to gain benefits a consideration?
It's always nice to have a runner get some significant coin in and then get lucky and start winning just before you hit it.
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Romes and RS I think you're both saying the same thing.
I believe it's the 1/2 point theory. It's might be slightly weighted towards a certain range but certainly not like some people believe. I wish it was, so there would be more opportunities.
Speaking of opportunities, is anybody actually playing must hit's and making a fair amount of money on a consistent basis? I hear some people saying they are(online and 3rd hand info), but anybody that I actually know and talk to about it, people that would be truthful are claiming that it's not that great.
Quote: AxelWolf...Speaking of opportunities, is anybody actually playing must hit's and making a fair amount of money on a consistent basis? I hear some people saying they are(online and 3rd hand info), but anybody that I actually know and talk to about it, people that would be truthful are claiming that it's not that great.
There's one here where I'm at currently at $470.00. Max is $500.00. The old lady on it has been there since I got here. They just never leave. I wouldn't doubt she's there all night chasing it. I've seen them on the phone calling people to bring them more money.
Quote: AxelWolf
Speaking of opportunities, is anybody actually playing must hit's and making a fair amount of money on a consistent basis? I hear some people saying they are(online and 3rd hand info), but anybody that I actually know and talk to about it, people that would be truthful are claiming that it's not that great.
In my opinion, most casinos are oversaturated with Must-Hits these days, I wrote two Articles about it:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/must-hit-over-saturation-part-1-of-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/must-hit-over-saturation-part-2-of-2/
Anyway, I think there are simply too many of them now compared to how many there used to be, and I've spoken to a few other AP's who tend to agree. With respect to my local casino, there are probably 4x as many more Must-Hits as there were a year ago and 8x as many as there were two years ago, and yet, there are fewer positive opportunities than ever.
The most important thing to learn is how to schmooze to get that seat or find out you' re not getting it.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIf they put a guarantee on the box, the only thing they're guaranteeing is it's a guaranteed pos. You really never even know once you lose so much, you'll even hit the jackpot because machines break and you might wind up sol. These machines bring out the worst in casinos from tightest possible settings in pb and meter rates, down to outright machine removal(Hollywood style). For high dollar jps, it would be better for the jps to not be guaranteed in my opinion, so more people can take a shot.
The most important thing to learn is how to schmooze to get that seat or find out you' re not getting it.
I'm pretty sure that by law ( at least in Nevada ), that if they take out a machine with a progressive on it, that the increase from the base level must be moved to another machine with comparable probability of hitting.
