Mystery Progressives

Recently I went to a talk by Peter Liston about how he turned $500 into millions playing "mystery progressive" slots. He has a book about it titled Million Dollar Slots.

What is a mystery progressive, you might ask? It is a progressive jackpot that is guaranteed to go off randomly by a certain maximum jackpot size. I assume the way they work is a point is chosen randomly from a uniform distribution between the seed amount and "hit point," which is the maximum the jackpot can grow. When an event causes the jackpot to go above the predestined hit point then the jackpot is awarded and it resets back to the seed amount.

Based on Peter Liston's book, these games have evidently been around Australia for a while. I've never paid much attention to them, but see there are some at the Red Rock by WMS. To make things more complicated, they each have two mystery jackpots. Some pictures I just took are below.

So, the question is at what point do the jackpots get so large they become a positive expected value bet?

I have done the math but will post the problem for the pleasure of the other math-heads on the forum. Let me given you the following assumptions:

1. Before considering the progressives, the base return of the game is 90%.
2. For every dollar WON both progressives increase by $0.00581879.
3. Minor jackpot must be hit by $50.
4. Major jackpot must be hit by $500.

Here are some questions to get the ball rolling:

1. What is a formula for the increase in expected value given the two jackpot sizes?
2. For the sake of argument, assume only one jackpot at a time. How large would it have to be for the return to be exactly break even?

Also, not that it is pertinent to the math, but does anyone know what the seed values are? My best guess is $20 and $200.

Some mystery jackpot games. Click on any image for a larger version.











Rules screens

Oh cool, you did some sleuthing/ analysis.

-slaps forehead- So that's how they work out a 'must be won by' jackpot.... it's a pre-determined value, not a value calculated on the fly.

That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

Quote: thecesspit

That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

They could also do it "as you go." For example, let's say the meter was at $30, must hit by $50, and should go up by $0.05. The probability of winning the jackpot should be 0.05/(50-30) = 0.0025. Mathematically, the odds are the same as if the win point were predestined. I think it is easier to explain the concept assuming the predestined jackpot way. MathExtremist may know how the games are actually programmed, but again, it is a moot question to the player.

Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

Quote: Hunterhill

Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

You can see my picture of Mystical Fortunes has a Major jackpot under $250.

Not surprisingly, the rules are confusing.

It says the increment increases. I think that should say the METER increase.

Also, I think the increment should actually decrease as it approaches the guarantee, thus enabling it to sustain a longer period of a high jackpot without actually hitting the guarantee threshold.

After all, does it automatically pay when it hits the guarantee?

There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

Quote: teddys

There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

You're right; I did. There are not many of Mystery Progressive machines in Vegas, which is why I ignored that thread. I just skimmed it and it didn't address the mathematical questions I am interested in addressing.

Hopefully Mango, CM, Miplet, or ME will find this thread (sorry if I'm leaving anybody out). This is an easy advantage play that has not been written about much, yet.

Assumptions 1 and 2 in reality, I believe #2 is dependent on #1. I say this based on other people's claims on the advantage point at other casinos which I felt just to be dangerous. There are many YT videos on these which may show how much the jumps are for. With so much obfuscation in modern slots, they seem so much harder for an observer to decipher based on mere observance due to mystery symbols. Also, couldn't the payback percentage be changed once it became advantageous with SBG since they could just disable the machine for the idle time and turn it back on tight.

I definitely have Liston's book on the list to get. It seems interesting based on your interview.

I remember hearing a GWAE program a while back saying that progressive slots always get camped towards the must hit so it's close to impossible to AP this, but I am interested in the process.

Just got done reading Liston's book, an excellent read. I wonder what he's doing in vegas now.

I wonged a $50 that was at $49.03, hit at $49.05, on this past New Years Eve. woohoo

Using Frank Kneeland's mystery progressive formula I developed a Basic program on my iphone to calculate the target point. Doesn't really come in handy ever but still cool to have if I'm walking through a casino.

Atlantic City has a ton of must-hit machines, and consequently, many vulture teams who seek these machines out. I saw one guy at Borgata who was eyeing a Konami machine that was a must-hit by $500 for 6 hours before someone else hit it (I played a 6 hour poker session). Another guy I talked to at Borgata waited 24 hours for a Big Ben Aristocrat slot machine that was at an unusually high $400.

Seems like a ton of downtime for a small reward.

Wizard,

I might take a shot at this one tomorrow, if it hasn't been answered before then.

I tried to do something similar in that other thread, but my assumptions were a bit different. I assumed $250 Base and $500 Jackpot, I assumed a return of 88% Base Return, and I assumed the Progressive Meter increased by .5% of all wins.

I also did not do anything to account for the likely event that the Jackpot would hit before $500, I went with the, "Absolute," advantage point in the sense that my guess was based only on the Jackpot hitting $500.00.

Anyway, my answer under the circumstances I have outlined above was $490.48.

Quote: Wizard

You can see my picture of Mystical Fortunes has a Major jackpot under $250.

That's very true, but in the event I try to figure this one out, I'll use Bases of $25 & $250 if it is all the same because the WMS machines of this nature I have observed at Wheeling Island Racetrack and Casino all start at $25 and $250. I know this to be the case because (while I've not hit them myself) I've had the good fortune to be there when each of them has hit and that is what they reverted to.

There are also machines there, I think they may be Konami (could be wrong) that actually start at $400 and must hit by $500, the Progressives still increase based on wins, but they increase much more slowly than .5% of the win. They may be Aristocrats, now that I think about it...I'll take a look next time I am there.

Quote: Mooseton

Using Frank Kneeland's mystery progressive formula I developed a Basic program on my iphone to calculate the target point. Doesn't really come in handy ever but still cool to have if I'm walking through a casino.

I agree with Frank's formula, which is: break-even jackpot (target point) = (must hit point)/[1+(meter rise)/(house edge)], where:

must hit point = Maximum possible jackpot.
meter rise = Ratio of meter rise to amount BET. Please note that with the WMS games the meter rise is based on win, not bet.
house edge = Ratio of expected player loss to amount bet, not including the value of the progressive.

The formula is on page 119.

More about Frank's book:

Quote: Wizard

I have done the math but will post the problem for the pleasure of the other math-heads on the forum. Let me given you the following assumptions:

1. Before considering the progressives, the base return of the game is 90%.
2. For every dollar WON both progressives increase by $0.00581879.
3. Minor jackpot must be hit by $50.
4. Major jackpot must be hit by $500.

Here are some questions to get the ball rolling:

1. What is a formula for the increase in expected value given the two jackpot sizes?
2. For the sake of argument, assume only one jackpot at a time. How large would it have to be for the return to be exactly break even?

A.) With all due respect, I believe that the Base Amounts for the Jackpot are pertinent to the Math because those must be considered as Base Pays for the machine and deducted from the 90%. In order to do that, the only part of the Jackpot applicable to any kind of +ER would be the difference between the starting point and the must-hit point.

B.) I'm going to go ahead and use the $200 as a base, although the ones I have observed have had a base of $250.

C.) Okay, if the base return of the game is 90%, then we will see a return of $0.90 for every $1.00 bet, and for each $1.00 bet which theoretically returns $0.90, .9 * .00581879 = $0.005236911 will be added to the Progressives.

If the Progressive were at the starting point of $200, then we know it would take $300 in total increase to the Progressive in order for the machine to reach the must hit point of $500. Assuming that the Progressive should increase by $0.005236911 for each dollar bet, it would take:

300/.005236911 = $57,285.67852 in dollars bet in order for the Progressive to hit from the starting point.

The $57,285.67852 would return $57,285.67852 * .9 + 300 = $51,857.11067

In the case of the Major Jackpot, then, we are actually returned .9 + .005236911 = .905236911 per dollar bet, assuming we hit the Progressive Jackpot at some point. (51857.11067/57285.67852 = .905236911)

.1 is the Hold Percentage absent the Progressive.

In this case, the amount of coin-in must equal the ER of the coin-in (plus $300) to be spinning at 100%ER.

The base hold is .1 and the amount added to the Progressive is $.005236911 of every dollar, so this must happen:

.1/.005236911 = 19.09522617 times to be spinning at 100% ER.

$300/19.09522617 = $15.710733---$15.71, which is the amount the Progressive can be short to be at 100% ER.

Thus, the Progressive must be at $500 - $15.71 = $484.29 or better to be at 100% ER or more.

It would take $15.71/.005236911 = $2,999.860032 coin-in to lock up the Progressive by hitting $500.

This represents $15.71/.00581879 = $2,699.874029 in total WINS to lock-up the Progressive.

$2,999.860032 * .9 = $2,699.874029

$2,999.860032 - $2,699.874029 = $299.986003 which is the difference in the must-hit point and starting point with errors due to rounding.

This also holds for the Minor Progressive, with starting and must-hit points both at 10% of the Major Progressive, thus, you would want the minor Progressive to be at $484.29 * .1 = $48.429---$48.43 to be at 100% ER.

It would take 1.57/.005236911 = $299.7950509 coin-in to lock up that by hitting $50.

This represents 1.57/.00581879 = $269.8155458 in total WINS to lock that up.

The difference is $29.9795051 which is the difference between the starting point and must-hit point with errors due to rounding.

Bases at Mystic Lake and Treasure Island in MN are 25 & 200. I won't get too into the math (I'll leave that to, you know, mathematicians), but I agree with Mission that the base jackpot is included in the base return of the game just like in progressive VP...

There are teams of transients that hawk these games in MN. They're nice guys, but they do make it impossible for anyone else to get on a machine that is approaching the jackpot. I have to imagine that this aspect is even worse in markets with more casinos (and more transients).

Quote: Wizard

I agree with Frank's formula, which is: break-even jackpot (target point) = (must hit point)/[1+(meter rise)/(house edge)], where:

must hit point = Maximum possible jackpot.
meter rise = Ratio of meter rise to amount BET. Please note that with the WMS games the meter rise is based on win, not bet.
house edge = Ratio of expected player loss to amount bet, not including the value of the progressive.

x = $500/[1+(.005236911)/(.1)]

x = $475.1184687

I guess I should be playing these more often, if you don't mind, Wizard, what went wrong with my method?

Quote: Mission146

A.) With all due respect, I believe that the Base Amounts for the Jackpot are pertinent to the Math because those must be considered as Base Pays for the machine and deducted from the 90%.

I was trying to keep things simple and not confuse the issue by deducting the value of the progressives from the return. Kneeland also does not muddy the waters with this. So, when I use the return of the game in my formula it is before considering the value of the average values of the progressives.

To make the adjustment, I show the average value of the progressives in the WMS games to be 1.92%, assuming seed values of 25 and 200, and a fixed-win return of 90%. So, let's say that based on other evidence you feel a casino sets their slots to 92%. Then for the base return of the game you should use 90.08%.

Quote: rdw4potus

Bases at Mystic Lake and Treasure Island in MN are 25 & 200.

Thanks, that is good to know.

The following table shows the Target Point of the Major jackpot according to total return of the game (including from the progressives) and the value of the Minor Jackpot.

Minor	86%	88%	90%	92%	94%
$20	$484.97	$482.53	$479.32	$474.90	$468.45
$21	$484.95	$482.50	$479.27	$474.83	$468.33
$22	$484.92	$482.46	$479.21	$474.75	$468.21
$23	$484.89	$482.42	$479.16	$474.66	$468.07
$24	$484.86	$482.37	$479.09	$474.57	$467.93
$25	$484.82	$482.32	$479.03	$474.47	$467.77
$26	$484.78	$482.27	$478.95	$474.36	$467.59
$27	$484.74	$482.22	$478.87	$474.24	$467.40
$28	$484.70	$482.15	$478.78	$474.11	$467.19
$29	$484.64	$482.08	$478.69	$473.96	$466.96
$30	$484.59	$482.01	$478.58	$473.80	$466.69
$31	$484.53	$481.92	$478.46	$473.62	$466.40
$32	$484.45	$481.82	$478.32	$473.42	$466.07
$33	$484.38	$481.72	$478.16	$473.18	$465.69
$34	$484.29	$481.59	$477.99	$472.92	$465.25
$35	$484.18	$481.45	$477.78	$472.61	$464.74
$36	$484.06	$481.28	$477.55	$472.24	$464.13
$37	$483.92	$481.09	$477.27	$471.81	$463.41
$38	$483.75	$480.86	$476.93	$471.30	$462.53
$39	$483.55	$480.58	$476.52	$470.66	$461.44
$40	$483.30	$480.23	$476.01	$469.85	$460.04
$41	$482.99	$479.78	$475.35	$468.81	$458.18
$42	$482.57	$479.20	$474.48	$467.40	$455.60
$43	$482.01	$478.40	$473.26	$465.38	$451.78
$44	$481.21	$477.23	$471.44	$462.27	$445.53
$45	$479.95	$475.35	$468.43	$456.84	$433.44
$46	$477.72	$471.89	$462.52	$444.97
$47	$472.64	$463.29	$445.49

The following table shows the Target Point of the Minor jackpot according to total return of the game (including from the progressives) and the value of the Major Jackpot.

Major	86%	88%	90%	92%	94%
$250	$48.48	$48.23	$47.90	$47.45	$46.78
$260	$48.48	$48.23	$47.90	$47.44	$46.76
$270	$48.47	$48.22	$47.89	$47.42	$46.74
$280	$48.47	$48.22	$47.88	$47.41	$46.72
$290	$48.46	$48.21	$47.87	$47.40	$46.70
$300	$48.46	$48.20	$47.86	$47.38	$46.67
$310	$48.45	$48.19	$47.85	$47.36	$46.64
$320	$48.45	$48.18	$47.83	$47.34	$46.61
$330	$48.44	$48.17	$47.82	$47.32	$46.57
$340	$48.43	$48.16	$47.80	$47.29	$46.52
$350	$48.42	$48.15	$47.78	$47.26	$46.47
$360	$48.41	$48.13	$47.75	$47.22	$46.41
$370	$48.39	$48.11	$47.73	$47.18	$46.34
$380	$48.38	$48.09	$47.69	$47.13	$46.25
$390	$48.36	$48.06	$47.65	$47.07	$46.14
$400	$48.33	$48.02	$47.60	$46.99	$46.00
$410	$48.30	$47.98	$47.54	$46.88	$45.82
$420	$48.26	$47.92	$47.45	$46.74	$45.56
$430	$48.20	$47.84	$47.33	$46.54	$45.18
$440	$48.12	$47.72	$47.14	$46.23	$44.55
$450	$48.00	$47.54	$46.84	$45.68	$43.34
$460	$47.77	$47.19	$46.25	$44.50	$40.02
$470	$47.26	$46.33	$44.55	$39.84

Excellent work Wizard! Making charts like that has been on the lower end of my bucket list for a while.

This may be a bit off subject and may have been talked about if so please send link. Some online casinos have mystery jackpots that are not must hit by. (I have yet to see a must hit by online if there is I would love to know about it.) for instance Bovada has some that start at 1k and I have seen them at 12k NEVER 13k. Any idea what one being at 12k would add to the game? Even if its not a positive my mom loves penny slots and plays anyway possibility I can get her to play at least with some casino buy in bonuses. Is there any number that would make a unknown Mystery Jackpots +EV

Also interesting but off-subject are pooled must-hit jackpots. Rising Star and Four Winds have casino-wide jackpots, Mystic Lake and Treasure Island (MN) have pooled jackpots at specific banks of machines. These machines are my usual drawing-night spots - grab a drink or 10, play 1 unit on 1 line, and people-watch.

Quote: Mooseton

Excellent work Wizard! Making charts like that has been on the lower end of my bucket list for a while.

Thanks! Any very funny. My bucket list has things like talking to a pretty girl without her being paid.

Lol! I really was actually being serious though, haha. :)

Quote: Wizard

Thanks! Any very funny. My bucket list has things like talking to a pretty girl without her being paid.

:D

Awesome work!!!

And for you slot hunters out there, I wouldn't use anything but the first two columns unless you had reliable info. The Vegas Strip had a 86.13% return for penny slots in Jan. 2013.

Quote: tringlomane

Awesome work!!!

Thanks!

My WoO page is done. Please check it out. Please PM me any typos.

Looks good! I'm still not sure I have stumbled across one of these machines in a good state yet...haha WMS doesn't require a max bet to win the jackpots right? I'm too poor to try these at max bet. :( If I bet less, the meter obviously rises proportionally less anyway.

deleted

Quote: tringlomane

Looks good! I'm still not sure I have stumbled across one of these machines in a good state yet...haha WMS doesn't require a max bet to win the jackpots right? I'm too poor to try these at max bet. :( If I bet less, the meter obviously rises proportionally less anyway.

I was told by a reliable source an Asian lady beside him continued betting $.01 and hit the minor on Vampire's Embrace. Any time max bet is not required to win, you can win on any bet. I have even been told of people winning the $1,000+ major on Penny Train betting $.01. When the common folk complain about things like this, they are happy just knowing the small bettor gets screwed even if doesn't benefit them. They seem to have a sense of entitlement betting a whole $2 a spin and must think they are Bill Gates at this level. Often they actually assume someone else getting screwed, well naturally the casino will share it with me=so naive.

Wiz, all I can say is "Minor" and "Major" jackpots should not be capitalized without quotations is how I feel. If anything capitalize all letters and include quotation marks.

Quote: AxelWolf

This may be a bit off subject and may have been talked about if so please send link. Some online casinos have mystery jackpots that are not must hit by. (I have yet to see a must hit by online if there is I would love to know about it.) for instance Bovada has some that start at 1k and I have seen them at 12k NEVER 13k. Any idea what one being at 12k would add to the game? Even if its not a positive my mom loves penny slots and plays anyway possibility I can get her to play at least with some casino buy in bonuses. Is there any number that would make a unknown Mystery Jackpots +EV

ANYONE ?

what about the must hit by $2k video poker machines that award a mystery progressive? have you ever taken a look at those? ive played them a few times at 25cent denomination as fast as i could when id see it over $1900 but never hit it. a guy a couple seats down from me hit it though. idk if its run station collective or just redrock. there might only be 2 sets maybe 3 of them at redrock. 10seats per grouping i think.

Quote: tringlomane

WMS doesn't require a max bet to win the jackpots right? I'm too poor to try these at max bet. :( If I bet less, the meter obviously rises proportionally less anyway.

That's right, any bet has a chance to win, in proportion to the bet amount. Of course, if you play until it hits, you may be there a long time with small bets.

Quote: Wizard

There are not many Mystery Progressive machines in Vegas ...

Well, there were not many Sic Bo layouts in Vegas either but when a Biloxi casino ordered a Sic Bo layout and received one with a misprinted payout, the sharpies flocked to Biloxi for awhile. So its good to have a thread like this since those who are already in Biloxi might want a head start some day.

Its good to indicate that its only a few machines though. That at least does not raise peoples expectations. I do recall that a few years ago the IP was advertising its "must hit before X" slot machine.

I'm curious if anyone has any idea how much of the payback, the progressives account for?

it is about 1 to 1.2% to the total games contribution rate.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks!

My WoO page is done. Please check it out. Please PM me any typos.

Thank you Wizard! Awesome subject, and thank you for the tables - I've always assumed the legal minimum return/hold for such calculations (86%/14% in Nevada), but offering OPN's for other returns is a nice touch.

I've noticed a possible error on your Mystery Progressives page on WoO. Not a typo or calc error, but I believe that the pic of Reel Boost - Mystical Fortunes is for a game whose meter increases by bet, not win. Since your analysis on that page focuses on the G+ Deluxe Mystery by Win, as I call it, I thought you might like to remove the other for Reel Boost (also a WMS product, but a Mystery by Bet game nonetheless). As far as I have seen in Northern Nevada, the Reel Boost are always by bet and the G+ Deluxe (blue numbers on yellow) are by bet. I am as yet unfamiliar with the versions in dark brown, like Great Tut's Mysteries.

Below are some "Must Hit By" Mystery Progressives that I have seen with common meter ranges and rises. These all rise and fall by any coin in amount and are connected to a single machine.

Ainsworth: Major: $350.00 - $400.00 rises at 0.200%; Minor: $20.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.450%
"": Major: $170.00 - $200.00 rises at 0.250%; Minor: $30.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.300%

Bally's Young Gunz: Major: $200.00 - $500.00 rises at 0.250%; Minor: $20.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.500%

Quick Strike: Major: $250.00 - $500.00 rises at 0.250%; Mini: $25.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.750%
"": Major: $100.00 - $250.00 rises at ~0.321%; Mini: $10.00 - $25.00 rises at ~0.534%
"": Major: $10.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.500%; Mini: $5.00 - $20.00 rises at 0.750%

Reel Boost (WMS): Major: $200.00 - $500.00 rises at 0.500%; Minor: $25.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.600%

Top Star: Major: $100.00 - $300.00; Minor: $25.00 - $75.00 both rise at 0.750%


Like above is the G+ Deluxe series with the following exception - the meters rise and fall strictly by wins, regardless of bet amount.

G+ Deluxe: Major: $250.00 - $500.00; Minor: $25.00 - $50.00 both rise at ~0.600% of each win

I have seen many games in this series, and the resets above are the only values that I have noticed when they bust.

If you plan to play any of the above as an AP, be sure to verify both the reset value and the meter rise for each, as all of the information is required to calculate the OPN's.

It seems that the consensus on these single-seat games is that the casinos may include the baseline return from the meters when determining the minimum return of the base game that will still be in compliance with the GCB. This has been my assumption as well.

In the case of the first version of Quick Strike in my previous post, also below, you would take the baseline return from the meters (or the return at reset), and add it to the maximum allowable hold (14% in Nevada). This sum would be the hold that you would use to calculate the OPN for each meter.

Quick Strike: Major: $250.00 - $500.00 rises at 0.250%; Mini: $25.00 - $50.00 rises at 0.750%


The return from each of the meters would be

Rtn(Major) = 0.250% * [ ( 500 + 250 ) / ( 500 - 250 ) ] = 0.750%
Rtn(Minor) = 0.750% * [ ( 50 + 25 ) / ( 50 - 25 ) ] = 2.250%

giving a combined return of

Rtn(meters) = R(Major) + R(Minor) = 0.750% + 2.250% = 3.000%

Adding this to our maximum allowable return gives

H = 14.000% + 3.000% = 17.000%

According to Kneeland (referenced by the Wizard), our OPN, T, for a single meter is given by:

T = X * H / (H + M)
for Max Meter Value, X, in dollars, Hold, H, and Meter Rise, M, both as percentages

When I calculate the OPN for one of my double meters, such as the ones in the list in my previous post, I reduce one of the meters to a return by replacing the reset value in my calculation above with the current value of the meter and subtract that return from the adjusted Hold, H.

For example, if the Minor is at reset, then I would use a Hold of
17% - 2.250% = 14.750%
and my OPN for the Major would be
T(Major) = $500 * 14.750% / (14.750% + 0.250%) = $491.67

Conversely, when the Major is at reset, the Hold would be
17% - 0.750% = 16.250%
and the OPN for the Minor is
T(Minor) = $250 * 16.250% / (16.250% + 0.750%) = $47.49

Note that the game is always playable if either meter is higher than it's OPN, regardless of the other meter's value. These are the highest numbers you will need to wait for. Clearly the OPN for either meter will come down as both meters rise.

If you wish to account for Slot Club or other quantifiable promotional values, put them in terms of a return and adjust the hold (down) accordingly. While this will reduce the expected profit when you play, it will allow you to play more often. This is the balance that you deal with when determining an OPN, isn't it?

Sorry to take away from the Wizard's question regarding the G+ Deluxe Mystery by Win; however, I do plan to get to that ...that more complex version!

Quote: camapl

It seems that the consensus on these single-seat games is that the casinos may include the baseline return from the meters when determining the minimum return of the base game that will still be in compliance with the GCB. This has been my assumption as well.

Sorry to quote myself, but I have a question regarding Mystery Progressives attached to pools related to the assumption above. The most common proprietary version of multi-seated mystery progressives that I have seen is summarized below.

Xtreme Mystery: Jackpot 1: $400.00 - $600.00 rises at 0.078125%; Jackpot 2: $40.00 - $60.00 rises at 0.200%; Jackpot 3: $15.00 - $25.00 rises at 0.400%

An obvious difference from Quick Strike or Reel Boost is the additional meter. While these meters also rise and fall by coin in, they do so as a collective. I have only seen these meters attached to a bank of at least two machines, rather than just being fed by only one. Most commonly, I see banks of four or six seats.

How the casino may calculate the maximum hold of each of the base games feeding these meters is what I wonder. Since only one machine may win any given jackpot, it is obvious to me that a casino would be incorrect to increase the hold on all of the machines by the total return generated by the meters. So, would it be acceptable to increase the hold by equal portions for each machine? In other words, with a set of meters adding 4% to the return of four base games, could a casino add 1% to the maximum hold of 14%?

Quote: camapl

Since only one machine may win any given jackpot, it is obvious to me that a casino would be incorrect to increase the hold on all of the machines by the total return generated by the meters. So, would it be acceptable to increase the hold by equal portions for each machine? In other words, with a set of meters adding 4% to the return of four base games, could a casino add 1% to the maximum hold of 14%?

All machines should contribute the same percentage regardless of how many machines are linked to the shared jackpot(s).

Quote: JB

All machines should contribute the same percentage regardless of how many machines are linked to the shared jackpot(s).

Thank you JB!

It was I who did not understand your response at first. The idea you are offering finally clicked in today late morning - I was at work of all places. Yes, yes, yes... in a multi-seat Mystery Progressive, I was concerned with all of the seats having to share in the jackpots, thus decreasing the return to each seat. However, since all of the seats are contributing to the rise (and sharing the cost), the return is the same for each machine as it would be for a single seat. I already was aware of this idea with respect to video poker, but somehow had a mental block when it came to the Mystery sort.

Quote: camapl

I do plan to get to that ...that more complex version!

Below is the OPN, T, for single-seat Mystery Progressives that rise and fall by bet, which I have stated in a previous post.

T = X * H / (H + M)
for Max Meter Value, X, in dollars, Hold, H, and Meter Rise, M, both as percentages

This is derived by finding the meter value that maximizes the profit per each jackpot if one always starts playing at exactly this meter value, or maximizing the Value, V. V is a product of the probability that the meter is playable (at or above the Play Number, PN) and the expected profit when starting at the PN and playing until the jackpot is won.

Another way to think of V is that it is the expected, or average, profit to you from every jackpot that this meter pays. When the jackpot hits for less than your PN, then it would result in $0 profit for you. If you could play whenever this meter got to your PN, continued until it hit, and stopped immediately, then you would have your expected profit for each jackpot that hits on that machine.

Using the same method as above for our G+ Deluxe (Mystery Progressive by Win), I arrive at the following OPN, T:

T = X * H / (H - H*M + M)

which differs from the Wizard's:

T = X * (H+M) / (H+2M)

...back to the drawing board!

Regarding the different formulas, mine differs slightly from that in Frank Kneeland's book because I consider the value of the progressive in the house edge and Frank doesn't. Since these rates of increase are small and it doesn't make much difference in the final answer.

About the minimum return, I thought it was 75% in Nevada.

Regarding whether the value of the progressive counts toward the official return of the game, I'm not sure, but would bet that it does. The slot makers are very guarded about their PAR sheets for progressive games. I will say that when I design a slot I include the average value of the progressive in the total return. For example, if a client asks for a 93% game, with a 2% progressive, then I make all the fixed wins worth 91%.

Can anyone answer my question about the non must hit Mystery Jackpots @ Bovada certainly someone has looked at them concerning you can win 12k for a 1 cent bet.

Quote: AxelWolf

Can anyone answer my question about the non must hit Mystery Jackpots @ Bovada certainly someone has looked at them concerning you can win 12k for a 1 cent bet.

If it's not a must-hit-by you are in the wrong thread. That slot jackpot would (probably) be awarded when you spin the right symbols, just like any other normal slot.

Quote: dwheatley

If it's not a must-hit-by you are in the wrong thread. That slot jackpot would (probably) be awarded when you spin the right symbols, just like any other normal slot.

YOU SIR are completely wrong. That's called a progressive jackpot your talking about. Not all mystery jackpots are must hit by. Ill go so far as to say must hit by's came after non-must hit by. What I'm talking about is very relevant considering this site sponsors Bovada and BV has at least 10 to 20 of them that often get 12x over reset 1 - 12k.

Quote: Wizard

About the minimum return, I thought it was 75% in Nevada.

Regarding whether the value of the progressive counts toward the official return of the game, I'm not sure, but would bet that it does. The slot makers are very guarded about their PAR sheets for progressive games. I will say that when I design a slot I include the average value of the progressive in the total return. For example, if a client asks for a 93% game, with a 2% progressive, then I make all the fixed wins worth 91%.

I concur with your first statement, the jurisdictional minimum is 75%.

With respect to your second statement, it varies based on the machine. For example, I know for an absolute fact that the return on Quick Hits Platinum machines does not include the average Progressive Values when hit, or anything along those lines, nor does it include the amount of coin-in that feeds the Progressive. I got that information directly from technical support at Bally Technologies Inc. It's the Base Pays on all potential wins in addition to the Base Pays on the Progressives only.

That having been said, if one is looking for +ER, with exception only to machines in which it is known that the coin-in that feeds the Progressive (or average Progressive amounts when hit) is not included in the overall return, it is best to assume that it is included.