Best Way to play $1500 Refund in Slot Losses- Or not

Valley Forge Casino in PA sent me a deal for a 1 day Rebate of up to $1500 in Slot Losses. Payback is in 3 equal payments on certain days in April, May and June. I am close enough that this is not a problem. The other rules are no VP, $25 Slots or $100 slots. This would not be a bankroll problem and I really do not play there much to be concerned about lack of play on the return days affecting future offers.

So my question is what would the right play be, if at all? Is the goal to try and hit a decent winner on a $5 slot until you lose $1500? At what point would you quit a winner, if that happened? And then would you play lower volitility video slots with the $500 free play each day? What I mean by this is older video slots that pay back a decent amount of small winners historically where you should get $350 to $400 back running $500 through, with no guarantees.

Or are the overall negative odds something you would just stay away from?

Thanks for all advice.

the best way to use a loss rebate is to set an extremely high win goal such that the chances of losing the whole 1500 are at least 90%

So you can't play VP to grind the freeplay back either?

I'm not well versed on the math of slot rebates, so I'm not just sure if this rebate offer is really +EV or not. :( It might be, but I have a feeling it isn't by very much.

Step 1 is usually to play the $5 slots to either win "big" or lose the $1500. I dunno how to calculate "big" though; personally I probably quit if I profit > $3k.

If you bust on Step 1, Step 2 is often like you are thinking, find a smaller denomination/lower volatility machine to grind most of it back. I still might pick quarter reel slots over video slots though since their payout is likely a few % higher.

freeplay is different from loss rebate. i answered OP's question as if it were a loss rebate

It is Freeplay in 3 equal amounts over time and does not say if you can or cannot use the freeplay on VP. I just assumed the rules would be the same as the initial slot requirements.

Quote: tringlomane

So you can't play VP to grind the freeplay back either?

I'm not well versed on the math of slot rebates, so I'm not just sure if this rebate offer is really +EV or not. :( It might be, but I have a feeling it isn't by very much.

I would be willing to bet that, assuming the slot machines return something like 92%+ that this is an extremely lucrative promotion if played correctly.

Quote: bigfoot66

I would be willing to bet that, assuming the slot machines return something like 92%+ that this is an extremely lucrative promotion if played correctly.

They generally do at the quarter level. But that is what I wasn't sure of, if it was profitable with a 92% overall return on both legs. It probably is, but I have no clue by how much. And I have no clue how to play this "optimally".

I'm guessing that the bigger the bet, the better. Is it possible to play multi-line $5 machines?

Quote: Boz

It is Freeplay in 3 equal amounts over time and does not say if you can or cannot use the freeplay on VP. I just assumed the rules would be the same as the initial slot requirements.

I don't think that VF has a way of segregating this freeplay from other freeplay, and their general freeplay definitely works on the multi-line 9/5 JOB machines (I believe that's their best game...so there's THAT...). So, unless they happen to notice where you downloaded the freeplay, I think you may be in the clear on the suck-out side of things.

Quote: rdw4potus

I don't think that VF has a way of segregating this freeplay from other freeplay, and their general freeplay definitely works on the multi-line 9/5 JOB machines (I believe that's their best game...so there's THAT...). So, unless they happen to notice where you downloaded the freeplay, I think you may be in the clear on the suck-out side of things.

VPFree says 9/6 DDB exists (98.98%) for $25/hand, but I would play 9/5 JoB (98.45%) for as low of a denomination as possible instead since I wouldn't be looking to significantly regamble the freeplay.

OK still trying to figure out the odds on this venture. Assuming I can get $1250 back out of a $1500 loss, I am still down $250. All of this is assuming I lost $1500 on the 1st day. Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but I am trying to figure out the 1st day and how to correctly play. Should I risk $1500 in losses ($250?) to win what amount?

Or am I looking at this wrong? If I am up $500 should I quit? Or what is the correct number according to odds? Or is there no easy answer?

So many questions, but I think is a good opportunity, I just don't know what the right approach is.

What would the Wizard do??

Well, I just got out of the Cosmo with a pair of 100$ loss FP loss promotions: Cut and ran at being +27.50 on one, lost the other so I dumped the FP into a 25c*3 slot and cashed out at 105$. Kind of disappointed that I was a bit short for the free buffets though.

Quote: Boz

OK still trying to figure out the odds on this venture. Assuming I can get $1250 back out of a $1500 loss, I am still down $250. All of this is assuming I lost $1500 on the 1st day. Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but I am trying to figure out the 1st day and how to correctly play. Should I risk $1500 in losses ($250?) to win what amount?

Or am I looking at this wrong? If I am up $500 should I quit? Or what is the correct number according to odds? Or is there no easy answer?

So many questions, but I think is a good opportunity, I just don't know what the right approach is.

What would the Wizard do??

(Not the Wizard)

Losing $1,500 v. Winning x

The first thing is whether or not you intend to play slots at a +ER, if there are any slots there upon which you can calculate the ER. QuickHits Platinum is an example of a slot machine where the ER can be gauged acceptably, especially if you want to just go ahead and assume the lowest Base Return setting. In that event, you would play that if those were at an advantage, or even if the difference in the Progressives added enough to the ER to put you at over whatever you want to assume the ER is on a $5.00 machine.

Are there not $10 machines there? I've seen them at various casinos, but have never been to Valley Forge.

In the event that you do not intend to, or are unable to find, slots at a +ER or better ER than you would expect from $5/$10 slots, then you should play $5/$10 slots as they will have the best ER.

I don't know where you would set your win goal, but on any slot machine that is not a Progressive slot machine, you're going to be looking at -ER. The best play, technically, would simply be to quit at any point at which you are ahead, since the expectation is that you will lose that money, then lose the $1,500, and finally not experience a 100+% return on the Free Play. I doubt if you would quit at +$5, though, otherwise there is no real point to doing this, but I don't know how to advise you on where to set your win goal, because you're at -ER anyway.

Obviously, the higher you set your win goal, the less likely you are to attain it, but it's impossible to determine the probability of having a win of x, or combination of wins totalling x, without PAR sheets. In general, if playing a -ER machine anyway, I might suggest not setting your overall win goal above the third or fourth least likely (read: highest-paying) single result of that machine. Look at The Wizard's Keno Game:

https://wizardofodds.com/play/keno/

If you would, go ahead and fill in ten numbers, set the wager to $10, and see the Return Table.

You can see that 7-Hits is a win of $990 ($1000-FOR-$10), and the probability of hitting 7-8-9-10 is:

0.001611143098528 + 0.000135419355264 + 0.000006120648825 + 0.000000112211895 = 0.0017527953145120001 or .18% or 1/0.0017527953145120001 = 1:570.5172713098062

Okay, so the probability of not hitting any of that is: 1 - 0.0017527953145120001 = 0.998247204685488

So then you ask, how many plays before I have a 50% chance of hitting it?

(.998247204685488)^396 = 0.4992162202256698--- 1 - 0.4992162202256698 = 0.5007837797743302

Okay, so 396 plays, which would cost 396 * 10 = $3960 in total bets.

At an expected return of, let's be really safe and call it 93% on a $10.00 machine, you'll lose $0.70 of all monies bet, so 396 spins should cost you about $277.20.

So, let's do the reverse.

Now, we don't want to lose more than $990, that's bad if you are going for $1000+ to walk, because if you hit the seven at that point you basically just get to start all over again.

990/.7= 1414.28571428 spins to lose $990 based on ER.

Awesome.

PROOF:

1414/396 = 3.570707070707 * 277.20 = $989.80 (Errors due to rounding)

In 1414 spins:

(.998247204685488)^1414 = 0.08369071611075328...1-0.08369071611075328 = 0.9163092838892467 you're at about 91.63 to hit 7 Balls or a better result. Of course, you'd probably be down at the time it happens, if it happens.

So, if there is just a straight Video Keno game, no multipliers, Free Games, etc, you can easily determine the Return % as well as the probability of y (or better) hitting in x attempts, as well as how many cards you would get and at what loss, if that's what you want to do.

Free Play

I guess this is where I'd have to ask you whether you are still trying to win money (+ER slot machine, VP, or high-denom slot machine) for the ER.

Or whether you want to get as much of that money back as you can, theoretically, with as little Variance as possible. ($0.01-$.25 slot machine, perfectly graduated payout, bet of 1 Line/1 Credit Bet)

I would play the maximum-denom video slot you can find (they probably have some at $1) and play it at max bet. Assuming 25 lines and 5 credits per line, that would be $125 a pop. Play that until you reach a winning goal or go bust trying. I think trying to double your money would be a reasonable goal. Some might say to go for a higher goal, but you don't want the edge of the game grinding you down trying to achieve it.

This is what I did with the Riviera promotion, and the rules were very similar. I played a $1 Coyote Moon and fortunately hit a good bonus and won about $1200, so got up and quit. That one was a max loss of $1000.

Thanks Wizard and Mission! VF has very few machines overall compared to most casinos as they fall into the resort license program in PA compared to regular casinos and have no $1 videos, but they do have multiple $1 (3 max) and $5(15 max) reel slots that I have observed. I am going to set a win goal of $500 with the first $1000 through $5 slots first and the last $500 in $1 machines. If at any time I get up $500 I will quit. If I lose it all I will go back a try to get $1250 or more back.

Again I have the discipline to play the FP and walk away and risk no further offers in slot play from VF. I will update on how I make out, but I believe I have a good risk to reward on this promo.

The one question no one has answered (except by gut feel or experience) is what to choose as your win goal.

Let $x be your win goal, and p(x) the probability you hit $x on the slot you choose before losing $1500. Assume you get $1250 back from your freeplay if you lose.

Maximize: x p(x) - 250 (1-p(x))

If this was a coin flipping game, this would be (relatively) easy, as p(x) = x / (1500 + x), so after a derivative we are done. But
a) it's my bed time, so I'm not figuring this out right now, and
b) it's not a coin flipping game, so p(x) is complicated, and depends on the variance and distribution of prizes of the slot you choose.

I'll be back tomorrow.

A quick follow up based on the most recent post. Your $500 win goal is too conservative for this promo. You should be looking at a win goal, I'm guessing, of ~$7500 to maximize the value of the promo. I'm double check the math in the morning.

Quote: Boz

Thanks Wizard and Mission! VF has very few machines overall compared to most casinos as they fall into the resort license program in PA compared to regular casinos and have no $1 videos, but they do have multiple $1 (3 max) and $5(15 max) reel slots that I have observed. I am going to set a win goal of $500 with the first $1000 through $5 slots first and the last $500 in $1 machines. If at any time I get up $500 I will quit. If I lose it all I will go back a try to get $1250 or more back.

Again I have the discipline to play the FP and walk away and risk no further offers in slot play from VF. I will update on how I make out, but I believe I have a good risk to reward on this promo.

I am interested in DWheatley's follow-up, because it essentially indicates that all of our, "Walk-Away," points have been too conservative. I tend to disagree with that because, if you are playing a -ER machine, I would still say it is technically best (albeit pointless) to quit whenever you are ahead.

I don't know that I would switch from $15/pull to $3/pull after getting down to $500 left to lose. The main reason is that you are looking for any single hit of $1500+ or a combination of hits resulting in $1500+ to achieve your win goal, at that point. Your ER will be slightly lower, one would assume, at the $1.00/denom. Furthermore, the probability of hitting any single result that puts you at your win goal will also be decreased on a per spin basis.

Quote: Boz

Thanks Wizard and Mission! VF has very few machines overall compared to most casinos as they fall into the resort license program in PA compared to regular casinos and have no $1 videos, but they do have multiple $1 (3 max) and $5(15 max) reel slots that I have observed. I am going to set a win goal of $500 with the first $1000 through $5 slots first and the last $500 in $1 machines. If at any time I get up $500 I will quit. If I lose it all I will go back a try to get $1250 or more back.

Switching to $1 slots seems like a bad idea. At that point you are already down $1000. Even if you stick to the $500 win mark, you will need at least a $1500 hit to get that high. You still want that to happen. If you end up getting a $800 hit on a $1 machine, you are just going to continue playing it. You are still going for that big hit. It is possible that you grind it up that high, but I would expect it will come in 1-2 large spins if you end up winning.

Part 1 of my follow-up:

If you are playing a coin flipping game, there is no win rate that maximizes your expectation. You should (strangely) play for as high a win goal as possible. At some point, the improvement in return rises so slowly that there is little practical value in continuing, but I was a little surprised to see this.

Part 2 of my follow-up will blow your mind:

Even if the probability of hitting your win goal is worse than a coin flipping game (because you are playing a volatile, -EV slot game), there is still no win rate that maximizes your expectation. If you choose $1000 as a win rate, even with a ridiculously low chance of achieving it (say 1% for the example), you would do better to choose $1100 as a win rate. And so on, to infinity!

I can fix all this by using the log-utility of money theory, but then we have to add in the OPs current wealth to find the right answer.

Example time!

If your wealth is $100,000, you should set a win goal of $16,000 to maximize your log-wealth.
If your wealth is $500,000, you should set a win goal of $35,500 to maximize your log-wealth.

Amazingly, these numbers do not depend on the probability of you achieving your goal, if we assume that the standard risk of ruin ratio applies (it's proportionally harder to achieve a larger win goal).