DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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March 16th, 2010 at 1:29:55 PM permalink
Quote: thlf

To add another quirk to all you math guru's heads, I read how the megabucks and most other wide area progressives inculding the former jumbo jackpot (stations) work. An amount is randomly selected for the jackpot to hit at and as soon as that amount is achieved the first slot machine signal received will display the jackpot. In other words the jackpot will never come up randomly as you guys are suggesting. It is predetermined and whoever is there at the right time will hit it.


I find that VERY hard to swallow.

If it works as you suggest, it wouldn't be too hard for an insider to obtain the number and have buddies play when it gets close.

Oh, sure, there is no guarantee of hitting it, but such an inside tip would turn the odds heavily in favor of whoever acts upon it.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 16th, 2010 at 1:56:33 PM permalink
Quote: thlf

To add another quirk to all you math guru's heads, I read how the megabucks and most other wide area progressives inculding the former jumbo jackpot (stations) work. An amount is randomly selected for the jackpot to hit at and as soon as that amount is achieved the first slot machine signal received will display the jackpot. In other words the jackpot will never come up randomly as you guys are suggesting. It is predetermined and whoever is there at the right time will hit it.



I've heard that is how the Jumbo Jackpot worked, but I can't confirm or deny it. However that is absolutely NOT how Megabucks worked.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
thlf
thlf
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March 16th, 2010 at 2:06:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've heard that is how the Jumbo Jackpot worked, but I can't confirm or deny it. However that is absolutely NOT how Megabucks worked.




I am certainly not the person to say I know this for fact, but I thought I read it a few years ago. One reason I believed it would be that it would help explain how the wide area progressives can hit in remote areas with little machine play, and not always hit in the same properties with mega machine play.
cclub79
cclub79
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March 16th, 2010 at 2:17:50 PM permalink
Quote: thlf

I am certainly not the person to say I know this for fact, but I thought I read it a few years ago. One reason I believed it would be that it would help explain how the wide area progressives can hit in remote areas with little machine play, and not always hit in the same properties with mega machine play.



I don't believe either method would cause a remote area to be more or less likely to pay the jackpot, based on probability.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 16th, 2010 at 3:10:34 PM permalink
Wiz

You may want to show the entire year where you pulled the Megabucks Data from.


Year (2009) Profit ($,000) Profit (%) Handle($,000)
1 CENT 1,825,465 10.10% 18,073,911
5 CENT 238,384 6.96% 3,425,057
25 CENT 624,210 5.79% 10,780,829
1 DOLLAR 575,567 5.16% 11,154,399
MEGABUCKS 53,352 10.43% 511,524
5 DOLLAR 117,234 4.89% 2,397,423
25 DOLLAR 27,291 3.96% 689,167
100 DOLLAR 24,733 3.98% 621,432
MULTI DENOMINATION 3,250,396 5.19% 62,628,054
OTHER SLOT MACHINES 86,408 5.50%
1,571,302
TOTAL SLOT MACHINES 6,823,039 6.10% 111,853,098



Megabucks is slightly above penny slots in profitability in Nevada.

Compare to cumulative data in Pennsylvania which keeps a running track of wagers and payouts. Total wagers for the entire 40 months that the slot clubs have been open still is much less than NV for 2009. During those 40 months the 9 slot clubs have gradually been opening with some of the major ones only opening in the last year. However the win percentage is much higher than the average machine in Nevada.

Wagers $63,496,230,872.73
Payouts $57,929,087,580.01

Cumulative Nov 2006 - Feb 2010 Profit ($) Profit (%) Handle ($)
All Pennsylvania Casinos 5,567,143 8.77% 63,496,231
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 16th, 2010 at 3:53:05 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Wiz

You may want to show the entire year where you pulled the Megabucks Data from.



I'm not sure I see your point. My 2009 figure was for 1/1/09 to 12/31/09. Same as the figure your quoted, which is in thousands of dollars.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 16th, 2010 at 9:11:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm not sure I see your point. My 2009 figure was for 1/1/09 to 12/31/09. Same as the figure your quoted, which is in thousands of dollars.



It is the exact same figure. The extra ,000 is understood.

I thought it would be interesting to see what the return is for a Megabucks machine compared to all the other types of slots. Also that Pennsylvania casino crank their slots so tight, that the average slot machine is almost as stingy as a Megabucks machine.

It is not, however, addressing your main area of interest.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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March 16th, 2010 at 10:04:43 PM permalink
What is really interesting in the data is the profitability in the penny slot. It is pretty much the only item in Vegas where the Year over Year data shows an increase in slots, though the multi-denominatiosn are holding their own.

The number of actual penny machines is not increasing and the win % which determines handle is relatively constant over time. So is the recession pushing the nickel and higher denominations to the Penny slots (or not playing at all?) I think so.

Slot Denom Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2008
Penny 8.64% 4.08% 6.67% 10.73% 14.39% 18.34% 26.87% 34.36%
Nickel -39.76% -47.64% -47.78% -43.23% -40.23% -27.14% -12.78% -10.09%
Quarter -21.18% -29.69% -29.23% -29.54% -30.56% -13.48% 2.66% -17.29%
Dollar -17.47% -29.08% -30.43% -26.59% -30.04% -6.20% -10.45% -11.76%
Multi -0.52% -1.87% -5.77% -3.56% -7.85% 5.00% 10.15% 11.20%
All Slots -7.19% -13.40% -14.69% -14.12% -17.67% -4.86% 5.47% 0.27%
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 12th, 2010 at 9:49:26 AM permalink
I'm almost ready to announce my new page on Megabucks on my "Odds" site. However, I'd be interested in any initial comments or questions on it. Just click on the link above to see a rough draft.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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April 12th, 2010 at 10:22:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm almost ready to announce my new page on Megabucks on my "Odds" site. However, I'd be interested in any initial comments or questions on it. Just click on the link above to see a rough draft.



Only thing I might change is to estimate the Present Value (PV) of the annuity. At todays low interest rates it might be quite low. My financial calcualtor is at home or I'd put up an estimate here.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing

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