Nice little jackpot on a wongable slot from WMS
I've not even seen one of these machines. However, it's going to be fairly unlikely that you see one above $490 because people will tend to play anything above a certain amount (varying by individual) until they either win or are tapped, as is the hook of the machine.
The second reason is, if my RNG-activated when the Jackpot is hit theory is correct, then the Jackpot will rarely rise to $490 in the first place. If it can be anywhere from $250.01 to $499.99, you're talking about essentially 25 multiples of ten, which results in a 4% chance that the jackpot is set between $490-$499.99 in the first place. Clearly, if the Jackpot is set at $254.12, then you are playing with an advantage if the meter is at $254.11.
The beauty of it is that since the $250 is part of the base ER, and the wins increasing the jackpots are also based upon the base ER, the point at which the jackpot hits does not affect the overall take of the machine in any way, shape or form. It is merely (and inevitably) giving back that which it was programmed to give back.
I guess the one thing that we have accomplished is in figuring out a definitive advantage point. Of course, if you happened to notice one of these machines with the Major at $490+, you'd have probably played it anyway! ;)
Of course, at least you know you can play at an advantage with the minor, as well, which you might otherwise have not cared about one way or the other.
Quote: tringlomaneNice work mission. Now one question is...has anyone seen one of these major jackpots above $490? I definitely haven't.
I actually hit two of these jackpots on my last trip to Vegas. I've never seen it get all the way to $490, but the two that I hit were at around $440 and $470. Both of them, I was betting max coin. One of them, I hit it on a regular spin, and the other I hit at the end of a set of free spins. Both times, I hit it on my first win of over $100 on the machine. The smaller one was at Aliante, and the bigger one was at M.
As I understand it, any such "theme" game has to pay a royalty to the owners of the trademark "American Idol" and thus such a royalty is actually paid by those who play the game and thus receive a lower payout. So if one wants to have (not an advantage, but the lowest DIS-advantage) when playing a slot machine, it is best to play a "generic" slot machine rather than some super duper popular one even though it may offer some 'trinkets' from time to time.Quote: Mission146There are quite a few machines out there that will award something along the lines of Free Games seemingly at random and even on a losing spin. The, "American Idol Audition Bonus," is an example of one such machine.
Have you tried saying "Shut up. Open your yap once more and I'll call security."Quote: tsmithbut as I've gotten older I've developed a dislike for sitting at a table with other people where they all tell you what to do and criticize your play even tho you're playing perfect strategy, and counting was too much like work.
I know what you mean about just You versus The Machine, but the key factor seems to be just how lopsided the fight may be. At blackjack you have a chance and at craps you have a chance but with these chips in the machine it seems you just might as well buy a lottery ticket and save yourself the airfare to Vegas.
Quote: fleastiffAt blackjack you have a chance and at craps you have a chance but with these chips in the machine it seems you just might as well buy a lottery ticket and save yourself the airfare to Vegas.
It could be argued that a statement like this is no better than someone at the blackjack table telling you that you played your hand wrong or yelling at you for "taking the dealer's bust card."
You play the game you like and I'll play the game I like and we'll both have a good time at the casino.
Quote: FleaStiffAs I understand it, any such "theme" game has to pay a royalty to the owners of the trademark "American Idol" and thus such a royalty is actually paid by those who play the game and thus receive a lower payout. So if one wants to have (not an advantage, but the lowest DIS-advantage) when playing a slot machine, it is best to play a "generic" slot machine rather than some super duper popular one even though it may offer some 'trinkets' from time to time.
I guess the first thing that I should point out is that one can definitely play a slot machine at an advantage, and this could potentially happen with any Progressive machine. It's not an advantage in the sense that a BJ AP will play at an advantage, but again, very comparable to the advantage that a VP player pays in the rare event that a machine pays at slightly over 100% ER, or when the ER + Comps are greater than the amount bet. The advantage for the slot player who sees that rare +EV opportunity is that he doesn't have to play optimally as one does with VP, he just hits the, "Spin," button.
You are right that there are going to be royalties due to the llicensing of a game, and thus,those royalties may result in lower ER. I was just pointing out that the American Idol machine occasionally offers a bonus on a losing spin, not suggesting that anyone should play it or that I have with any regularity, I played it once in my life and spent a few minutes observing it being played.
You generally have the worst of it with any other $0.01 Video Slot Machine, though the licensed ones are worse. The only reason to ever really play one, from an EV standpoint, is if the Progressive(s) have risen to a high enough level as to put it on at least equal ER footing with a higher denomination slot machine. In most cases, though, the best you can do is make an educated guess. Other than that, even popular machines should be fine as long as they are not premised on anything that would require a license.
This time the minor jackpot was standing at about $32 and the major jackpot was standing at around $430 so I figured what the heck, I'll give it a shot, maybe I can get the minor one. I was playing $1/spin consistently and getting a few wins here and there. I had about $80 invested when I won about $20 on the spin and I heard the major jackpot award announcement, at around $434.
Since our discussion last month I tried to make mental notes of how the progressives increased. It looked like the amount on both went up about .03 for a $5 win, around .07 for a $10 win, and maybe .10 for a $15 win. I could be off by a cent here or there since by the time I looked up to see the counters they were already changing.
I also played a little on the new Paradise Fishing multi-player slot game from Aruze. I think there's been a thread about this game already so I won't go into any details other than to say it's a hoot-and-a-half to play and 20 bucks lasted me a loooong time.
Quote: 24BingoThose machines that tell you "at the current rate of play, the jackpot will hit within X minutes," as discussed in the OP... if those aren't typically +EV as soon as the announcements start, is there a good rule of thumb for when they are?
Do you have any more specifics? Most importantly, how much are you betting? What is the jackpot amount? How many spins are you making per hour?
I doubt that there is an advantage as soon as the announcement starts playing, but there would come a point...I've never seen any such machine.
Quote: tsmithI made another trip to Tunica this week and sonofagun if I didn't get the major jackpot on the very same machine as last month!
This time the minor jackpot was standing at about $32 and the major jackpot was standing at around $430 so I figured what the heck, I'll give it a shot, maybe I can get the minor one. I was playing $1/spin consistently and getting a few wins here and there. I had about $80 invested when I won about $20 on the spin and I heard the major jackpot award announcement, at around $434.
Since our discussion last month I tried to make mental notes of how the progressives increased. It looked like the amount on both went up about .03 for a $5 win, around .07 for a $10 win, and maybe .10 for a $15 win. I could be off by a cent here or there since by the time I looked up to see the counters they were already changing.
I also played a little on the new Paradise Fishing multi-player slot game from Aruze. I think there's been a thread about this game already so I won't go into any details other than to say it's a hoot-and-a-half to play and 20 bucks lasted me a loooong time.
Awesome! Congratulations on finding a machine that wants to be your personal ATM!
I never got to play one of the G+ games in Vegas. The closest I found was a Konami version that raised the jackpot based on coin-in, so I was able to scoop up a minor that was over $47 when I sat down and ended up $96 on the plus side since I had a decent hit in the meantime. Nothing in the $400 range for me!
I'll have to try the Paradise Fishing if I see it anywhere since I love to find games that stretch the playing time like that.
Quote: Mission146Congratulations, although it is a shame that the Progressive increases seem to be other than what was discussed.
A little bit, but if they still linearly increase based upon wins, then breakeven points for the jackpots may still be found. The data tsmith gave was still roughly linear. It wouldn't surprise me that the progressive meters may increase at different rates for different machines.
Nice hit, tsmith!
I have hit 4 of the majors, 470, 463, 458 and 376. I have hit minors more times then I can remember, I have been playing max coin, which is $4 so the Minor hits pretty often for me.
Then my sister saw a game she wanted to play so I took the one next to hers, and she immediately got a bonus and at the end the little firework/meteor things went launching up to the top and I noticed a G+ logo in the upper left corner. I told her these machines had random bonuses that award after wins but used to TELL you how high the jackpots were. She had placed a voucher from a previous win into the machine so her credit balance was very high and people around thought she had won all that money on that particular machine, making the jackpot close to being ready to hit. Then she realized she had lost her phone and went to look for it so I sat at her machine and a woman asked if she could have mine since I wasn't playing, and she checked the menu on my old machine and said they used to tell you either what the jackpot was or when it had last hit, but now that was gone from the menu!
So the end result is they still exist but at least the ones I found no longer have any indication of what the jackpot level is, but there are still people who know how they work and go looking for people having big wins and playing those machines after the winner leaves hoping they've built the jackpot up high enough. The woman I spoke to thought my sister had won over $1000 on that machine but she already had over $600 on her voucher since she didn't want to carry a purse and didn't have pockets on her clothes (which is why she left her phone behind at one slot we had been playing) so she loaded her bankroll onto a voucher that she could carry from machine to machine and I carried the small bills we needed for tips. I had really wanted to find one at a high level but that fun was gone. I guess they had problems with slot vultures fighting over the "good" machines or something.
Quote:I told her these machines had random bonuses that award after wins but used to TELL you how high the jackpots were.
Not all G+ machines have the major and minor progressive jackpots, only the G+ Deluxe series and only certain types of those, and they are clearly marked with the jackpot amounts. For instance, I have seen a Kronos machine with the progressive jackpots sitting right next to a Kronos machine that has no jackpots. Don't be looking for any random jackpot awards unless the progressive amounts are shown at the top of the machine.
Quote: tsmithQuote:I told her these machines had random bonuses that award after wins but used to TELL you how high the jackpots were.
Not all G+ machines have the major and minor progressive jackpots, only the G+ Deluxe series and only certain types of those, and they are clearly marked with the jackpot amounts. For instance, I have seen a Kronos machine with the progressive jackpots sitting right next to a Kronos machine that has no jackpots. Don't be looking for any random jackpot awards unless the progressive amounts are shown at the top of the machine.
Then there weren't any WMS machines with the random progressives! But some of the other players seemed to think the G+ ones had mystery progressives as well. I wish I could find some G+ Deluxes somewhere.
While the WMS G+ games are all over the place, these Deluxe machines with the progressives are in short supply in every casino I go to in Tunica, Miss. There are 3 at one casino, 2 at another (sister casino), and none in at least 3 other casinos that I visit regularly.
Maybe if the amounts increased more rapidly they would get more play, which might equal more demand for them. I'm sure a lot of people get frustrated when they win $20 and see the progressive move up only a nickel.
From what I hear on other boards about these machines, their volatility keeps a lot of people from being able to last as long as you did; you were lucky to get the big hits once in a while to keep you going.
I personally know the individual who coined that term; so you are 15 years late. The irony here is the the surname of the person who coined "wongable slots" is actually pronounced "Wong" in mandarin. That person continues to pursue wongable slots based on design mistakes, equity left in the game, etc.
Actually John Ferguson got the credit for it, but the first author to suggest back counting before you sit down to bet, was none other
than Edwin O. Thorp .
Quote: BuzzardI am going to AC to the Revel in January to win enough at Blackjack to pay the med bills. I understand it's easy money !
Oh yeah Buzz - like shootin' fish in a barrel
Quote: Buzzard" The term "Wongable Slots" was coined on bj21.com on the free pages back in circa July 1997 in homage to S. Wong (who also operates bj21.com), the man who put wonging in blackjack."
Actually John Ferguson got the credit for it, but the first author to suggest back counting before you sit down to bet, was none other
than Edwin O. Thorp .
Sorry, but you have your fact confused.
John F. is S. Wong and his action put "wonging" into AP lexicon. However, "wongable slots" was coined by Angst, later Man of Angst (M.O.A.) and after graduating with an MBA from NYU, he changed his handle to Man Bearing Angst (M.B.A.) -- all this occurred on bj21.com. Angst's surname is ironically pronounced "Wong" in Mandarin.
And the first person to write about the advantage to be gained by back counting was indeed Edwin O.. Thorp !
Quote: BuzzardLike I did not know who John Ferguson is. LOL I believe some other writer coined the phrase " wonging in "
And the first person to write about the advantage to be gained by back counting was indeed Edwin O.. Thorp !
You remind me Cyrus of bj21.com -- and he was hated by many because Cyrus loved to show off his vast intelligence and when proven wrong on many occassions, Cyrus would be argumentive and pedantic.
First, the original post concerns "wongable" not "wonging in" and the post was applied to slots. Therefore, Angst gets credit for putting "wongable slot" into the AP lexicon. Prior to Angst, slots were described as "beatable" or some other equivalent adjective (such as "bonus hustling" or playing progressive RF that resulted in positive EV, etc), but the epithet "wongable slots" was used by Angst and that term later become popular with VP players due to bimodal VP machines that were "wongable" in the "On" mode such as Flush Attack, etc. The term went from bj21.com to Skip Hughes "message group". That is the etymology of "wongable slots" and I hope ot makes it into the O.E.D. The IRONY here is that the term wongable was really used to denote Stanford Wong's analysis of Piggy Bankin', i.e. the use of BEP analysis, and obviously caught on because of S. Wong's name and that fact S. Wong made "wonging" a famous and profitable activity.
Again, read the orignal post in this thread started by tsmith: "I hope I'm using the term "wongable" correctly. It means there's a point where it is a good idea to play it to win a large amount, right?" Again, tsmith is not asking about "wonging in" -- he is asking about "wongable (slot)" and that term was started by Angst in July 1997.
Second, E. Thorp was NOT the first person to write about advantage gained by back counting -- we have no idea who was the first person. E. Thorp was the NOT the first person who developed a bona fide card counting system for blackjack. History tells us that players were "chasing aces" (i.e. bet more when there were more aces left in the deck), and some players were using crude forms of balance counts prior to Thorp's original ten-count system. We have no idea who was the first person to create card counting as defined in the modern system.
What E. Thorp did was that he was the first to PUBLISH a system or method based on math that was proven to beat blackjack. Thorp put his system into the public domain via a book called "Beat the Dealer."
In summary, please check your facts because the chasing aces argument easily refutes your "And the first person to write about the advantage to be gained by back counting was indeed Edwin O.. Thorp" assertion.
Thank you.
dealers dealing seconds, card mechanics, etc !
I will stand by : "And the first person to write about the advantage to be gained by back counting was indeed Edwin O.. Thorp"
Quote: BuzzardI will stand by : "And the first person to write about the advantage to be gained by back counting was indeed Edwin O.. Thorp"
Chasing Aces is the "forefather" to wonging, and you haven't added anything to the discussion except to show that you are argumentative.
What you did well is go off on a tangent from the original post. Some people would call it hijacking a thread.
It was a bank of 4 WMS slot machines, each of which had a screen above it with castle-themed progressive jackpots, where each turret of a castle had a different amount, ranging from Jester, the lowest at around 8 bucks, to King, that stood at over $1k. I don't know how these amounts increased, whether by partial or full coin-in or by wins or what, but there were different amounts above each machine.
Without getting into too much detail, there was a random bonus separate from the game's normal bonus that activated a feature whereby you could win one of the progressives via a pick-em screen, either the one displayed above your machine or someone else's. It cost a little more per spin because of this feature.
But the thing is, each progressive meter displayed "Guaranteed to win within x choices" and while I was there, there were several that said "Guaranteed to win within NEXT choice" so I sat down and played.
Since the place was fairly empty I was the only one playing at this bank of machines, so every time I got to the random bonus feature I won at least 1 or 2 of the progessives. I won $100-$110 about 4 or 5 times and $8+change about 4 times. On one bonus feature alone I won 3 of the $8 amounts and 2 of the $100s!
I'm calling this game "exploitable" because, as you can see, with only 1 person playing there is no competition for the progressives; if an amount is guaranteed to be won on the next choice, essentially all you have to do is get to the bonus feature, hit a certain reel combination, and it's all yours. With 4 players, however, it becomes a completely different game and one that I probably would not play.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy5O08npUyg
Quote: tsmith
But the thing is, each progressive meter displayed "Guaranteed to win within x choices" and while I was there, there were several that said "Guaranteed to win within NEXT choice" so I sat down and played.
Since the place was fairly empty I was the only one playing at this bank of machines, so every time I got to the random bonus feature I won at least 1 or 2 of the progessives. I won $100-$110 about 4 or 5 times and $8+change about 4 times. On one bonus feature alone I won 3 of the $8 amounts and 2 of the $100s!
I'm calling this game "exploitable" because, as you can see, with only 1 person playing there is no competition for the progressives; if an amount is guaranteed to be won on the next choice, essentially all you have to do is get to the bonus feature, hit a certain reel combination, and it's all yours. With 4 players, however, it becomes a completely different game and one that I probably would not play.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy5O08npUyg
A few comments:
1) you probably came at a time where the players, i.e. the Yahoo's tapped out when chasing the bonuses
2) unless you did a BEP analysis, you really don't know if the game is really exploitable or you just got lucky
3) the problem with slots is that the manufacturer or casino can change the game without your knowledge
You have to understand how slot manufacturers design slots -- in this case, a video slot. The bonuses are clearly the hook, and the guaranteed to hit makes the hook even more tempting. If you kept records, you would get an idea of how much the base game returns, how much each base jackpot adds to the base return, the meter movement, the cycle to hit each jackpot, etc. even if you collected enough data (applying the Law of Large Numbers), your returns may be invalidated since the casino could change the game with a new chip.
Charles Lund did a pretty good job at NOT RECOMMENDING Super 8 Race despite the game having a bonus.
Look at the Wizard's BEP analysis of MegaBucks to give you insights on how to decompose or reverse engineer the game.
Good luck.
Quote: Ardent1You remind me Cyrus of bj21.com -- and he was hated by many because Cyrus loved to show off his vast intelligence and when proven wrong on many occassions, Cyrus would be argumentive and pedantic.
Gee, it sounds like you are talking about the gambling board's favorite pinata, Frank Stanton.
Between his inept attempts to defend John Patrick and his babbling about The Flaw, he supplied lots of entertainment at Wong's board, at least until the regulars got tired of his nonsense and he was tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail.
Apt.
didnt see any that close. had a few a little above $40 and a couple in the $450's.
would it have been worth it to stick in a $100 to play the machine w/jackpot at $450?
also saw a bank of games that had the minimum jackpot at $300 and must win at $350.
anyone know about this game? (forgot name.. doh!)
Quote: 100xOddsthx to this thread i walked around the Md Live casino looking for jackpots $45+ and $475+.
didnt see any that close. had a few a little above $40 and a couple in the $450's.
would it have been worth it to stick in a $100 to play the machine w/jackpot at $450?
Unless you can predict the future, probably not.
Quote: 100xOddsthx to this thread i walked around the Md Live casino looking for jackpots $45+ and $475+.
didnt see any that close. had a few a little above $40 and a couple in the $450's.
would it have been worth it to stick in a $100 to play the machine w/jackpot at $450?
I'm simultaneously sorry and not sorry that you did not find such a machine. I'm sorry because it seems like you wanted to play those, but I'm not sorry because you would have not been anywhere approaching 100% ER pursuant to my breakdown earlier this thread.
No, that would not have been worth it. You'd be counting on Lady Variance intervening in your favor rather than ER. Barring HUGE...and I mean HUGE wins you would never have gotten to that $500 on the $100 alone. That's what you have to look at, when am I guaranteed this jackpot? If you search around the Internet, you'll see stories of people blowing 1K bankrolls at $450 trying to get that S.O.B. up to $500, ain't happenin'.
Quote:also saw a bank of games that had the minimum jackpot at $300 and must win at $350.
anyone know about this game? (forgot name.. doh!)
I don't know anything about that. The one thing that I established in an earlier post in this thread was that you would want the Progressive at about Base + 96.192% of the difference between the, "Must-Hit," and Base Point to be at an advantage. However, that Progressive increased based on wins (rather than coin-in) and we also had some very specific numbers to help us along. All of that said, however, there were some assumptions made that may or may not have been favorable to the player. (Ex. 88% Base Return)
If you want to use the 96.192%, which is a HUGE assumption to make given that I know nothing of the machine to which you refer, then you would want:
$300 + ([$350-$300] * .96192)
$300 + ($50 * .96192)
$300 + $48.096
= Progressive at $348.10.
Quote: strictlyAPall of these games have the possibilty of plus ev - i have tried to explain to friends what to look for and they just cant grasp it they keep saying is 450 playable, anything is playable but that is not ev- my general rule of thumb is a must hit is playable when it is in the top 5 percent of the spread, meaning if the must hit is 500 and the bottom level is 250 then tht creates a spead of 250 dollars - 5 percent = 12.50 so playable at 487.50 and above- this is not a perfect strat, but if you use it it is very very close to accurate
Yeah, the math in this thread said $492 I believe, so it's definitely a good rule of thumb for the big jackpot, imo.
Quote: strictlyAPall of these games have the possibilty of plus ev - i have tried to explain to friends what to look for and they just cant grasp it they keep saying is 450 playable, anything is playable but that is not ev- my general rule of thumb is a must hit is playable when it is in the top 5 percent of the spread, meaning if the must hit is 500 and the bottom level is 250 then tht creates a spead of 250 dollars - 5 percent = 12.50 so playable at 487.50 and above- this is not a perfect strat, but if you use it it is very very close to accurate
FWIW, I did some Math on these WMS machines as described on Page 5 and got 96.192%.
Spread of $250-$500 = 100% ER at $490.48 (Excluding Minor Jackpot Point)
Granted, 35 bucks is nothing to brag too loudly about, but it's 35 bucks more than you had before, and if you can get a couple of them from a bank of these machines without investing a whole lot -- on Christmas Eve I hit it with less than $20 invested and immediately right after a fairly decent bonus round -- I'd say you've had a pretty good day.
Quote: tsmithJust as anecodtal information ... I have received the minor progressive twice, and both times it was for less than $40; $35 and $37 IIRC. For that reason, and because I rarely see a minor progressive amount standing at much more than $35, I think the minor progressive is probably worth going for if you see one at or around that amount.
Granted, 35 bucks is nothing to brag too loudly about, but it's 35 bucks more than you had before, and if you can get a couple of them from a bank of these machines without investing a whole lot -- on Christmas Eve I hit it with less than $20 invested and immediately right after a fairly decent bonus round -- I'd say you've had a pretty good day.
Hmm...maybe I should have played a machine that I saw in the mid 40s then. I figured it had to be at about $48 minimum. :(
I think you might be looking at it from the wrong angle, tho, if you're only lookiing at the progressive amount and saying, "It still needs too much before it gets to a possible +EV point." You have to remember that the win amounts, not the coin-in, increase the progressive meter. You can get a couple of really good line hits or a gigantic bonus round right off the bat and go from $420 to $460 without having spent more than 10 or 15 dollars. Of course this doesn't happen often, and these machines are notorious for their volatility and clusters of dead spins and 20-cent wins, but that's why they call it gambling, right?
The only unfortunate thing is that you're going to need to see some Free Games, especially in longer sessions, for that Base Return to come to fruition and certainly to exceed the Base Return in that regard. Additionally, much of the advantage can often be wrapped up in the Five Quick Hits result, which really isn't all that unlikely, and then you may be spinning at a disadvantage once that hits. It's tough to leave a machine that is running well, but if you want to be pulling with +ER, sometimes you have to.
Quote: tsmithDisclaimer: my past performance is no guarantee of your future results ;)
I think you might be looking at it from the wrong angle, tho, if you're only lookiing at the progressive amount and saying, "It still needs too much before it gets to a possible +EV point." You have to remember that the win amounts, not the coin-in, increase the progressive meter. You can get a couple of really good line hits or a gigantic bonus round right off the bat and go from $420 to $460 without having spent more than 10 or 15 dollars. Of course this doesn't happen often, and these machines are notorious for their volatility and clusters of dead spins and 20-cent wins, but that's why they call it gambling, right?
Well, this is true, but the best assumption is to assume average performance, which means the meter is too low. I'm too cheap to play this for max bet anyway; I need to make max bet for these progressives, correct?
I much rather know my machine returns 99.82% with perfect play like it did today (one of the best quarter video poker machines in the Midwest). I unfortunately missed my 1 in 1081 chance for a $4000 Royal though (had a 4x multiplier). :(
Quote: tsmithThat's true, but you must be betting max in order to win any of the progressives on Quick Strikes or Quick Hits machines, whereas with these WMS machines you can win a progressive on any bet amount.
That's an excellent point, but from what I have read here and elsewhere, (and very briefly experienced on one of these machines) these things tend to be a Hell of a lot more volatile and Bonus Games Dependent than Quick Hits. I've seen two-fold profits on $50 in the machine on QuickHits games even without hitting a Bonus Game or Progressive. It's highly irregular, but it happens, granted, I've played the heck out of these machines!!! I don't see that happening on the WMS base game, absent a Bonus or Progressive, at least, not from what I have read. The Base Pays are just too putrid.
