135steward
Joined: Feb 2, 2012
• Posts: 27
March 1st, 2012 at 10:35:34 AM permalink
I still look forward to figuring out my other posted question. But in the meantime, what about the following question?:

The odds of getting a pair when dealt 5 cards is 42.9%, right? So, are the odds of getting a pair of Jacks or better (4/13)*0.429 = 13.2%?

And if I'm right so far, I have related question: If I don't draw even one face card or Ace, and throw in all five cards, how do I figure my odds of getting Jacks or better on the draw? What if I had a face card and threw in 4 cards? Or two different face cards? Where do I go from here?

This all goes to my other post. But hopefully it clarifies what I'm trying to figure out in general.

AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
• Posts: 4274
March 1st, 2012 at 11:21:34 AM permalink
Quote: 135steward

I still look forward to figuring out my other posted question. But in the meantime, what about the following question?:

The odds of getting a pair when dealt 5 cards is 42.9%, right? So, are the odds of getting a pair of Jacks or better (4/13)*0.429 = 13.2%?

And if I'm right so far, I have related question: If I don't draw even one face card or Ace, and throw in all five cards, how do I figure my odds of getting Jacks or better on the draw? What if I had a face card and threw in 4 cards? Or two different face cards? Where do I go from here?

This all goes to my other post. But hopefully it clarifies what I'm trying to figure out in general.

It's all about combinatorial analysis and finding the the combination that gives you the highest possible EV. If you don't have a background in discrete math and combinatorics, doing all of the math yourself is probably impossible, you pretty much have to trust the experts. If you do have that background or at least a basic probability background and a willingness to learn and work hard, I'm sure you could work out all of the probabilities yourself, but I'm not sure what the point would be other than to check the work of the pros, or to analyze a brand new game.

I'm not experienced with VP, so I'm not sure if the Wizard's (or other people's) ground work for all of the games and strategies is actually published, or just the results.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
• Posts: 3259
March 1st, 2012 at 11:50:31 AM permalink
I have a database function that does that kind of figuring. I just don't know how to put it on the internets.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
135steward
Joined: Feb 2, 2012