Poker Advice
I am coming to you for advice. I've started playing poker about 5-10 hours a week for about 6 months. I kept a log of my buy-ins, my profit/loss, hours, played, and the stakes. I was wondering, at what sample size, should one consider whether you can be a profitable player or not? I know 160 hours in 6 months is not a lot, but I want to get everyone's opinion. I have a side hustle that brings me between $50-$100 an hour.
Stakes typically played 2/5, and 5/10
Hours played 160.25 hours (spread between last 6 months)
Profit/loss: + $11,555
avg hourly: +$72.11
Also, some additional questions:
1. Is it normal for me to be much more profitable in 5/10 than at lower stakes (the game seems easier)? Or, am I on a high variance and do not have enough hours to make this assessment?
2. How many hours should I play before considering this as
3. What should my total bankroll should be playing 2/5 vs 5/10
For those who don't know, we are to assume you are talking about No Limit.
160 hours is just enough to realize you need more data.
525 hours should be enough to realize if you have the potential to be a long term winning player.
1250 hours is when you can get a fairly good assessment of your hourly.
You really should be using a tool to calculate the standard deviations of your big blinds. Search for primedope poker tools. For the record, I haven't any affiliation with that website.
You can go from a winning poker player to a losing poker player for various reasons. Never stop keeping immaculate records.
Just out of curiosity, is your side gig gambling related?
If 5/10 is the biggest game available in your casino or area, then it's not uncommon to have one or more whales consistently donating over time. If not, then yes, it's unusual for 5/10 to be softer than 2/5.
Being successful at poker normally requires study time outside of playing hours, so factor that into your comparison. I'm curious whether you're a beginning poker player. Have you only been playing for 6 months? Have you done any studying?
Quote: Notabotuplus22aHi Sigfried,
For those who don't know, we are to assume you are talking about No Limit.
160 hours is just enough to realize you need more data.
525 hours should be enough to realize if you have the potential to be a long term winning player.
1250 hours is when you can get a fairly good assessment of your hourly.
You really should be using a tool to calculate the standard deviations of your big blinds. Search for primedope poker tools. For the record, I haven't any affiliation with that website.
You can go from a winning poker player to a losing poker player for various reasons. Never stop keeping immaculate records.
Just out of curiosity, is your side gig gambling related?
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Thank you for taking the time to reply and provide some benchmark to aim. The side hustle has to do with drop shipping with a partner. I have hit a wall in terms of money goal and how tedious it is for me.
Quote: TaxrBuxFor bankroll guidelines, search for bankroll bible. It depends on your winrate.
If 5/10 is the biggest game available in your casino or area, then it's not uncommon to have one or more whales consistently donating over time. If not, then yes, it's unusual for 5/10 to be softer than 2/5.
Being successful at poker normally requires study time outside of playing hours, so factor that into your comparison. I'm curious whether you're a beginning poker player. Have you only been playing for 6 months? Have you done any studying?
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I've been playing poker for 20 years mostly NL. I have always played it casually, and would be able to hold my own at casinos. Six months ago, I started taking it a bit more seriously. I don't know if it's considered studying, but I have been watching about 2 hours of poker related videos on Youtube nightly. These are mainly bloggers who give hand analysis. I guess I never thought about adding that as part of my hourly. I appreciate the feedback.
The 5/10 game has a lot more pros and regs than the 2/5. I want to be clear and state that I find 5/10 in the same wavelength as how I play. The 2/5 game at where I play has a lot of players with really wide ranges. They also tend to chase a lot which leads to more showdowns. For example, if I have a AK, I have to raise to $40 or $50 or else, players will chase with garbage connectors and catch cards. I have a hard time narrowing the range.
I thank you for replying.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyHi Forum,
I am coming to you for advice. I've started playing poker about 5-10 hours a week for about 6 months. I kept a log of my buy-ins, my profit/loss, hours, played, and the stakes. I was wondering, at what sample size, should one consider whether you can be a profitable player or not? I know 160 hours in 6 months is not a lot, but I want to get everyone's opinion. I have a side hustle that brings me between $50-$100 an hour.
Stakes typically played 2/5, and 5/10
Hours played 160.25 hours (spread between last 6 months)
Profit/loss: + $11,555
avg hourly: +$72.11
Also, some additional questions:
1. Is it normal for me to be much more profitable in 5/10 than at lower stakes (the game seems easier)? Or, am I on a high variance and do not have enough hours to make this assessment?
2. How many hours should I play before considering this as
3. What should my total bankroll should be playing 2/5 vs 5/10
link to original post
online poker or B&M?
You don't want to be playing with pros and you want the players chasing you with garbage. Yes, it can be frustrating when you get beaten by inferior hands but you can't let this lead to over-betting posts.Quote: SiegfriedRoy
The 5/10 game has a lot more pros and regs than the 2/5. I want to be clear and state that I find 5/10 in the same wavelength as how I play. The 2/5 game at where I play has a lot of players with really wide ranges. They also tend to chase a lot which leads to more showdowns. For example, if I have a AK, I have to raise to $40 or $50 or else, players will chase with garbage connectors and catch cards. I have a hard time narrowing the range.
I thank you for replying.
link to original post
In spots where they are chasing garbage, your job is to bet amounts where they call you, but they are not getting the proper odds to do so.
I played 455 hours so far.
With Axle’s recommendation, I’ve been playing primarily 2/5 and 5/5. I have an updated hourly of +$39.72. I have removed some outlier private games out of the calculations because it was a very soft game and it would inflate my numbers.
I have 2 card rooms within comfortable driving distances. In the beginning, I was likely labeled a “fish” and was welcomed. However, now that I am showing up more often and started winning more consistently, I am treated and played differently. I had to adjust my game and ranges due to regs and pros playing me differently (maybe they’ve figured me out). Is being profitable sustainable? Do I have to keep adjusting my playing style to keep them guessing? My hourly has been going down steadily. Does being a profitable poker player mean moving to a place like Vegas that has lots of card rooms so that I don’t play the same people every day? Just looking for some advice and guidance.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyJust an update.
I played 455 hours so far.
With Axle’s recommendation, I’ve been playing primarily 2/5 and 5/5. I have an updated hourly of +$39.72. I have removed some outlier private games out of the calculations because it was a very soft game and it would inflate my numbers.
I have 2 card rooms within comfortable driving distances. In the beginning, I was likely labeled a “fish” and was welcomed. However, now that I am showing up more often and started winning more consistently, I am treated and played differently. I had to adjust my game and ranges due to regs and pros playing me differently (maybe they’ve figured me out). Is being profitable sustainable? Do I have to keep adjusting my playing style to keep them guessing? My hourly has been going down steadily. Does being a profitable poker player mean moving to a place like Vegas that has lots of card rooms so that I don’t play the same people every day? Just looking for some advice and guidance.
link to original post
Are they ways to play more ‘outlier private games’?
When you say ‘my hourly is going down’, are you sure it isn’t just variance?
Why do you think them playing with you is better for them, compared to you playing with them being better for you? Shouldn’t you be ‘figuring them out’ as much as them ‘figuring you out?
Congrats on the $18k. Do you also get any comps/food/etc.. for your play?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SiegfriedRoyJust an update.
I played 455 hours so far.
With Axle’s recommendation, I’ve been playing primarily 2/5 and 5/5. I have an updated hourly of +$39.72. I have removed some outlier private games out of the calculations because it was a very soft game and it would inflate my numbers.
I have 2 card rooms within comfortable driving distances. In the beginning, I was likely labeled a “fish” and was welcomed. However, now that I am showing up more often and started winning more consistently, I am treated and played differently. I had to adjust my game and ranges due to regs and pros playing me differently (maybe they’ve figured me out). Is being profitable sustainable? Do I have to keep adjusting my playing style to keep them guessing? My hourly has been going down steadily. Does being a profitable poker player mean moving to a place like Vegas that has lots of card rooms so that I don’t play the same people every day? Just looking for some advice and guidance.
link to original post
Are they ways to play more ‘outlier private games’?
When you say ‘my hourly is going down’, are you sure it isn’t just variance?
Why do you think them playing with you is better for them, compared to you playing with them being better for you? Shouldn’t you be ‘figuring them out’ as much as them ‘figuring you out?
Congrats on the $18k. Do you also get any comps/food/etc.. for your play?
link to original post
I’ve gone to three private games and the buy-ins are typically $500 with unlimited rebuys. I ran hot all three games and made over 7K combined and I am no longer invited.
IMO My hourly is going down due to the following:
1. Variance catching up to me
2. I started playing 5/10 and ran HOT, then I switched to lower stakes, so I was not taking home as much winnings even though the win rate has been about the same.
3. When I started playing on record, I used to pseudo-“hit and run” when I was up big. Now, I’ do stay longer and each session has been an average 5 hours.
I feel like I am being ganged up sometimes. When I started this journey, these regs/pros were friendly and would “donate” time to time. Now, they keep putting max pressure on me and there are no more “small talks.” I am not a pro, so I feel like it’s their edge to be able to learn my tendencies.
And thank you for the congrats on the win. It’s nice to have a bank roll that was developed over months.
At what point do you take a shot at next level? If I want to move up to 5/10, how much bankroll should I have?
Quote: SiegfriedRoyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SiegfriedRoyJust an update.
I played 455 hours so far.
With Axle’s recommendation, I’ve been playing primarily 2/5 and 5/5. I have an updated hourly of +$39.72. I have removed some outlier private games out of the calculations because it was a very soft game and it would inflate my numbers.
I have 2 card rooms within comfortable driving distances. In the beginning, I was likely labeled a “fish” and was welcomed. However, now that I am showing up more often and started winning more consistently, I am treated and played differently. I had to adjust my game and ranges due to regs and pros playing me differently (maybe they’ve figured me out). Is being profitable sustainable? Do I have to keep adjusting my playing style to keep them guessing? My hourly has been going down steadily. Does being a profitable poker player mean moving to a place like Vegas that has lots of card rooms so that I don’t play the same people every day? Just looking for some advice and guidance.
link to original post
Are they ways to play more ‘outlier private games’?
When you say ‘my hourly is going down’, are you sure it isn’t just variance?
Why do you think them playing with you is better for them, compared to you playing with them being better for you? Shouldn’t you be ‘figuring them out’ as much as them ‘figuring you out?
Congrats on the $18k. Do you also get any comps/food/etc.. for your play?
link to original post
I’ve gone to three private games and the buy-ins are typically $500 with unlimited rebuys. I ran hot all three games and made over 7K combined and I am no longer invited.
IMO My hourly is going down due to the following:
1. Variance catching up to me
2. I started playing 5/10 and ran HOT, then I switched to lower stakes, so I was not taking home as much winnings even though the win rate has been about the same.
3. When I started playing on record, I used to pseudo-“hit and run” when I was up big. Now, I’ do stay longer and each session has been an average 5 hours.
I feel like I am being ganged up sometimes. When I started this journey, these regs/pros were friendly and would “donate” time to time. Now, they keep putting max pressure on me and there are no more “small talks.” I am not a pro, so I feel like it’s their edge to be able to learn my tendencies.
And thank you for the congrats on the win. It’s nice to have a bank roll that was developed over months.
At what point do you take a shot at next level? If I want to move up to 5/10, how much bankroll should I have?
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I am not the poker expert, and would not be good at guessing your variance even if you are playing a +$40 an hour game. But I always find these ‘bankroll’ type questions somewhat disingenuous. Let’s say some smarter math guy gives you advice and says it’s $5k. If you actually DO NOT QUIT if down $5k, then your bankroll was not $5k, but greater.
The rest depends on some of your life situations. Do ou have a steady income to ‘replenish’ a ‘bankroll’ if variance goes against you? Do you have a wife that wants to use that ‘bankroll’ on that sapphire/opal/platinum ring she saw on your honeymoon in Santorini?
If you have actually saved that $18k, I think I’d try ramping up. You only live once!
Most poker players are always trying to learn and improve their game. If you are not doing that then you will likely find your profits declining in the long run.
Quote: SiegfriedRoy
At what point do you take a shot at next level? If I want to move up to 5/10, how much bankroll should I have?
Some places limit the buy in to 100 big blinds. If your place does that you would have 18 buy ins. I think that would be enough to give the 5/10 game a shot. If you lose 10 buy ins probably go back down.
Quote: DRichQuote: SiegfriedRoy
At what point do you take a shot at next level? If I want to move up to 5/10, how much bankroll should I have?
Some places limit the buy in to 100 big blinds. If your place does that you would have 18 buy ins. I think that would be enough to give the 5/10 game a shot. If you lose 10 buy ins probably go back down.
link to original post
Thank you for your suggestion. The place I frequent will open 5/10 on weekends and the max buy in is $3K. Would it be better to buy in for the full amount to make it 6 total buying or limit the exposure and buy in for $1000, buyer 18 times?
Quote: SiegfriedRoyQuote: DRichQuote: SiegfriedRoy
At what point do you take a shot at next level? If I want to move up to 5/10, how much bankroll should I have?
Some places limit the buy in to 100 big blinds. If your place does that you would have 18 buy ins. I think that would be enough to give the 5/10 game a shot. If you lose 10 buy ins probably go back down.
link to original post
Thank you for your suggestion. The place I frequent will open 5/10 on weekends and the max buy in is $3K. Would it be better to buy in for the full amount to make it 6 total buying or limit the exposure and buy in for $1000, buyer 18 times?
link to original post
Only you can answer that. I always wanted to start with the biggest stack so i could put all in pressure on others. Some people are better with small stacks, it just depends on your style of play.
Very nice bro!!!
I don't know why your hourly is dropping so significantly/rapidly, that's not normal.
Perhaps there were a few regular bad players who you have fleeced so bad that they no longer parisipate enough?
Part of being a good poker player is knowing why and who you are your making money from.
Testing vegas or other place's? Just do it. Go test for 20 -40 hours at a time before you make any decisions.
Try some online poker too (it’s totally different in many aspects, but a winning poker player should be able to beat both games. Also look into all the available tools that can aid you online.
With online play you need to be more self discipline in knowing when to stop and go to bed/ have a normal life. Online play can be verry life consuming.
Of course this was in the infamous "SHOW ME THE MONEY! How about a CTR?" thread where A.Wolf made it clear he figured a seven figure winner would (1) cash out in cash, and (2) have a CTR to wave around and show off as proof of the cash out. 🤣
Quote: MDawgObviously, it was incorrect to think that any seven figure winner would cash out in cash, obviously it was incorrect to think that a CTR is a piece of paper that would be anything a gambler could show to prove anything
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The trick CTR question was already explained multiple times, im not going to leep explaining why I asked that question. There is no gotcha moment for you regaing that.Quote: MDawgAh so when he claims to make $40. an hour you believe him, but when he clocked Mirage for over $1M and Wizard even logged into his player account to verify it, you didn't?
Of course, this was in the infamous "SHOW ME THE MONEY! How about a CTR?" thread where A.Wolf made it clear he figured a seven figure winner would (1) cash out in cash, and (2) have a CTR to wave around and show off as proof of the cash out. 🤣Quote: MDawgObviously, it was incorrect to think that any seven figure winner would cash out in cash, obviously it was incorrect to think that a CTR is a piece of paper that would be anything a gambler could show to prove anything
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Of course, I didn't/don't believe that nonsense regarding the original story in question. I believe there's a different explanation to his original story. It is what it is and I really don't care anymore.
I'm a very forgiving and generous man. People make mistakes, and ,or, there's other strange circumstances. I can move on. My advice and observation can apply regardless of truth or fiction.
I will give him the benefit of the doubt regarding his current story/situation/question and reply accordingly.
Quote: AxelWolfIf you are making $40 an hour over 400+ hours....that's fantastic.
Very nice bro!!!
I don't know why your hourly is dropping so significantly/rapidly, that's not normal.
Perhaps there were a few regular bad players who you have fleeced so bad that they no longer parisipate enough?
Part of being a good poker player is knowing why and who you are your making money from.
Testing vegas or other place's? Just do it. Go test for 20 -40 hours at a time before you make any decisions.
Try some online poker too (it’s totally different in many aspects, but a winning poker player should be able to beat both games. Also look into all the available tools that can aid you online.
With online play you need to be more self discipline in knowing when to stop and go to bed/ have a normal life. Online play can be verry life consuming.
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Thanks Axel. I don't want to jump to conclusion yet. I want to clock more hours before I conclude whether I am a winning player or not. So far, it's encouraging despite declining of my hourly. Like I mentioned, I know I was running unbelievably HOT beginning of the year with multiple 4 digit profit sessions. I've come down to earth now and playing more conservatively. I'd love to play online, but I live in a State where it is not allowed. I will take a few shots at 5/10 again and will clock in another 200 hours at 2/5 and provide an update. This may sound like a noob question, but are there any good recommended poker books? There are so many, I don't know which one is the best to invest my time. Thanks for all your suggestions everyone.
thetr ste 100s of good books but if you are playing live NL poker, I highly suggest Mike Carol's Book (DVD?) Book of tells.Quote: SiegfriedRoyQuote: AxelWolfIf you are making $40 an hour over 400+ hours....that's fantastic.
Very nice bro!!!
I don't know why your hourly is dropping so significantly/rapidly, that's not normal.
Perhaps there were a few regular bad players who you have fleeced so bad that they no longer parisipate enough?
Part of being a good poker player is knowing why and who you are your making money from.
Testing vegas or other place's? Just do it. Go test for 20 -40 hours at a time before you make any decisions.
Try some online poker too (it’s totally different in many aspects, but a winning poker player should be able to beat both games. Also look into all the available tools that can aid you online.
With online play you need to be more self discipline in knowing when to stop and go to bed/ have a normal life. Online play can be verry life consuming.
link to original post
Thanks Axel. I don't want to jump to conclusion yet. I want to clock more hours before I conclude whether I am a winning player or not. So far, it's encouraging despite declining of my hourly. Like I mentioned, I know I was running unbelievably HOT beginning of the year with multiple 4 digit profit sessions. I've come down to earth now and playing more conservatively. I'd love to play online, but I live in a State where it is not allowed. I will take a few shots at 5/10 again and will clock in another 200 hours at 2/5 and provide an update. This may sound like a noob question, but are there any good recommended poker books? There are so many, I don't know which one is the best to invest my time. Thanks for all your suggestions everyone.
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