Not 18 yos in a row, but.....
Help friends. What are the odds of getting the perfect low on any one hand, and then what are the odds of getting exactly two of them in 100 hands?
They were both "news" at the table, because just across the border there is a side bet that pays a lot (200-1?) for getting the perfect low, called pai gow insurance. No one at our table knew the actual payout for this lovely hand.....
Quote: WizardAccording to my page on pai gow poker side bets, the probability of a 9-high hand is 31080/154143080. Thank you for giving us the 100 hand assumption. For some reason, people seldom provide such information with questions like this. Using the binomial formula, the probability of exactly two 9-high hands out of 100 is 1 in 5068.311435.
There are two possible 9 high pai gows. 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 and 2,3,4,6,7,8,9. I'll call the first one, the one I got both times, the BAD 9 high pai gow, and the second one, the GOOD one. Since each will happen equally, I'll assume the chances are 1/2 x 1/2 as likely as your calculations, so I experienced a 1 in 20,273 event. My perception through my years of playing would have been that it would be much rarer. I distinctly remember only two other perfect lows in my career. I'm up to four now.....
And thanks for doing the math...
This always confuses me because people will say I got 2 royals within 100 hands of each other and they think it is rare but they played 50k hands before the first and 50k after the second so really they are behind.
Quote: GWAEStupid person math question. When someone says what are the odds of getting this when I played 100 hands. Does it matter if you get 1 then say what are the odds of getting another one in the next 99 hands . Opposed to sitting down and saying what are the odds of getting 2 in the next 100 hands.
This always confuses me because people will say I got 2 royals within 100 hands of each other and they think it is rare but they played 50k hands before the first and 50k after the second so really they are behind.
If you analyze my question the answer is the answer to "what are the odds of getting 2 in the next 100 hands".
Quote: SOOPOOIf you analyze my question the answer is the answer to "what are the odds of getting 2 in the next 100 hands".
Sorry the stupid person wasnt meant towards your questions. I meant I am stupid when it comes to math and have a questiob
Quote: GWAESorry the stupid person wasnt meant towards your questions. I meant I am stupid when it comes to math and have a questiob
I didn't take it any other way! I thought I just clarified it for you!
By the way, I should mention that I can't stand EZ pai gow and its lack of banking, but it was the only open table and I was waiting for someone.
Quote: SOOPOOSlowish players and slowish dealers, so probably only, say, 100 hands.
Not saying it couldn’t happen, but I think 50 HPH would be very fast if the table was full.
I think casinos rate for around 25-30 HPH with every spot filled.
Quote: SOOPOOI didn't take it any other way! I thought I just clarified it for you!
Ok good. I guess I was just hijacking your thread a little since you got your answer. I was wondering if the odds were the same in both situations
Quote: sodawaterLast year, I got a 9-high on the EZ pai gow table, which was full of Chinese betting the pai gow insurance side bet. When my hand was turned over and I was the only one who hadn't bet on the insurance, you should have heard the conversation.
By the way, I should mention that I can't stand EZ pai gow and its lack of banking, but it was the only open table and I was waiting for someone.
In Chinese I suspect? Did you know what they were saying. I wish I had the ability to learn a language. I would love to hear what is being said sometimes.
Quote: gamerfreakNot saying it couldn’t happen, but I think 50 HPH would be very fast if the table was full.
I think casinos rate for around 25-30 HPH with every spot filled.
I was playing two spots probably 60-70% of the time. And yes, 100 is really a guess.
Quote: GWAEI have a Stupid person math question. When someone says what are the odds of getting this when I played 100 hands. Does it matter if you get 1 then say what are the odds of getting another one in the next 99 hands . Opposed to sitting down and saying what are the odds of getting 2 in the next 100 hands.
This always confuses me because people will say I got 2 royals within 100 hands of each other and they think it is rare but they played 50k hands before the first and 50k after the second so really they are behind.
Those are very different questions. Much harder to get two in a hundred than 1 in 99.
Quote: sodawaterBy the way, I should mention that I can't stand EZ pai gow and its lack of banking, but it was the only open table and I was waiting for someone.
RIP Dan but I also dislike EZ Paigow. Rooting for the dealer to draw a Queen High paigow when you have a mediocre hand is a really fun component of standard PGP. IMO that rule change is not worth eliminating the comission.
(Warning. No f-bombs! KEEP it PG.)
