anonimuss
anonimuss
Joined: Aug 26, 2013
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March 6th, 2014 at 6:54:18 PM permalink
Quote: socks

I've seen good players say that tells rarely help and one estimated they made up something like 2% of profits. I'm sure there are exceptions, but for the most part, good players just don't have tells, and good players take up most of the space in higher limit games.

I also like the thought that most people depend on feel and most people are bad.



You have to observe a tell and see if it's reliable. You can't act on it the first time you see it. After you've watched enough times to feel comfortable with your opinion, he shoves, you see the tell and call, and you find out it was a fake tell. Next tell.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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March 6th, 2014 at 6:55:43 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

the reality of outs vs the theoretical outs can be quite different.



The "reality" of the outs is information that is not usually available to anyone. The number of theoretical outs is always the correct number to use.

Either you get an out face up, or you don't, and if you don't, it does not make any difference if your out is still in the deck, in the muck, or in somebody else's hand.

If you can somehow detect reality and know your outs are in the muck, then by all means you should adjust your strategy accordingly.
LarryS
LarryS
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March 6th, 2014 at 7:24:44 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

You can't take this into account when calculating your outs because you don't know what people folded. This would be amazing information though especially in an AK vs QQ war.



I ask this for infor purposes to get comment...not saying that its prudent.

But couldnt you try to take reality into account and not delude yourself that you have the maximum outs.

For example...you have the choice to call an all in after the river(before the turn)......you calculate maximum 9 outs to get your spade flush. You need 1 spade.

But 8 other hands were dealt. 16 cards in the muck plus burn card Can we assume that in the long run approx 4 spades would be in the muck? Can I over the long run when in this position calculate a more realistic percent of winning based on 5 or 6 outs rather than 9 outs?

Figuring the 9 outs is the maximum outs you have in the remaining cards ...dont we know that the chance of having 9 real outs is minimal.

Just because in a previous post the obvious was proclaimed...that we can never know the true outs......which is true...but can we sometimes mitagate a chance of a false calculation by using common sense or mathematical probability to realstically reduce the outs in our mind so we can make a more reasoned decision.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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March 6th, 2014 at 7:46:40 PM permalink
If the muck has 4 spades out of 16 cards, and the rest of the deck has 5 spades out of 20 cards...

You have 5 outs and a 25% chance of hitting it.

Now lump together all of the cards you can not see - 16 in the muck plus 20 in the deck.

Of those 36 cards, 9 are spades, or 25%

So yes, you can assume that 4 out of 16 cards in the muck are spades, and you only really have 5 outs, but it does not chat it does not change your chance of getting a spade.

5 out of twenty is the same as 9 out of 36.

You can not assume that in 16 cards, 4 are spades. You already see 4 of the spades, so the proportion of spades to any numbr of cards is no longer 25%


I should be using the exact number of cards remaining in the deck, but I don't have a pencil and I keep forgetting numbers when doing math in my head.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
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March 6th, 2014 at 7:49:29 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

If the muck has 4 spades out of 16 cards, and the rest of the deck has 5 spades out of 20 cards...

You have 5 outs and a 25% chance of hitting it.

Now lump together all of the cards you can not see - 16 in the muck plus 20 in the deck.

Of those 36 cards, 9 are spades, or 25%

So yes, you can assume that 4 out of 16 cards in the muck are spades, and you only really have 5 outs, but it does not chat it does not change your chance of getting a spade.

5 out of twenty is the same as 9 out of 36.



If this were Facebook, I would "like" this.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
LarryS
LarryS
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March 6th, 2014 at 8:15:54 PM permalink
4 spades out of 16 or 5 spades out of 28 is more like it

or 3 out of 16 or 6 out of 28 ( if as you say the amount of spades is lessened and not equally distrubuted)
Dalex64
Dalex64
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March 6th, 2014 at 8:36:31 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

4 spades out of 16 or 5 spades out of 28 is more like it

or 3 out of 16 or 6 out of 28 ( if as you say the amount of spades is lessened and not equally distrubuted)



Ok, 44 cards then.

9/44 x 16 is how many spades should be in the muck, and 9/44 x 28 is how many there should be in the rest of the deck.


I am not saying the cards are unevenly distributed, i am saying it is an error to assume 4 cards out of 16 are spades, because the percentage of cards left that are spades are 9/44 , not 11/44 or 25%
24Bingo
24Bingo
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March 6th, 2014 at 8:45:08 PM permalink
In poker, feel is extremely useful, because many of the variables you're feeding into the math can be determined only by feel. Unless you've got incredible intuition, though, math's up there, especially in fixed-limit play, which is about the closest thing I've found to applied game theory. In almost any kind of book, I'd imagine feel is much stronger, since the math is much simpler. At the tables, math is all there is, and feel is just an excuse - but it can be fun.

Really, at the end of the day, "feel" is just bad approximation of math we can't hope to comprehend. When we can comprehend the math, as in table games, it just gets in the way.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
LarryS
LarryS
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March 6th, 2014 at 10:38:39 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

In poker, feel is extremely useful, because many of the variables you're feeding into the math can be determined only by feel. Unless you've got incredible intuition, though, math's up there, especially in fixed-limit play, which is about the closest thing I've found to applied game theory. In almost any kind of book, I'd imagine feel is much stronger, since the math is much simpler. At the tables, math is all there is, and feel is just an excuse - but it can be fun.

Really, at the end of the day, "feel" is just bad approximation of math we can't hope to comprehend. When we can comprehend the math, as in table games, it just gets in the way.



poker is the only game in the casino that I know of where you can win with the worst hand.

the math can say that you have zero chance of winning the hand.....but you can still win....despite the math

So if you have a "feel" for an apponent that u can get them to fold....you could win with the worst hand. Thats what bluffing or semi bluffing is al about.

If you have no "feel: for opponents....then bluffing is out of the question.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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March 6th, 2014 at 11:25:25 PM permalink
"The math" says no such thing.

There's a simple phrase in math that encapsulates most "feelies'" objections: GIGO. They purposefully put garbage in, wave the garbage that comes out, and proclaim "math can't do everything!" But they put the garbage in. In poker, other players' strategies are as important as anything else. In all games, the simple luck of the draw is as important as everything else. Add it all up, and the math still wins over "feelings," provided it's being used properly.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

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