3 squirrelly questions on Holdem odds

I've been playing online Holdem for about 30K hands now, and have been tracking two things that can't be solved with "just the formulas"...because the answer depends on bluffing, degree of crazy betting, maturity of players:

* For a five-player game, what's the median winning hand? Seems like it's QQ, but I'd love it if somebody could point to an authoritative study/poll

* For a five player game, what's the median high card of the winner (whether or not the high card was part of the win)? Said another way, no matter who won (or what they won with), what was their high card? Seems like the median is a Q, but has anybody done a Big Data analysis of one of the online Holdem systems?

* Do these stats change meaningfully in a 9-player game?

Thanks for any info you can provide!!

Quote: davodavo

I've been playing online Holdem for about 30K hands now, and have been tracking two things that can't be solved with "just the formulas"...because the answer depends on bluffing, degree of crazy betting, maturity of players:

* For a five-player game, what's the median winning hand? Seems like it's QQ, but I'd love it if somebody could point to an authoritative study/poll

* For a five player game, what's the median high card of the winner (whether or not the high card was part of the win)? Said another way, no matter who won (or what they won with), what was their high card? Seems like the median is a Q, but has anybody done a Big Data analysis of one of the online Holdem systems?

* Do these stats change meaningfully in a 9-player game?

Thanks for any info you can provide!!

I seriously doubt the "median winning hand" is QQ, but that's a completely subjective question based on table dynamics. The only way you could maybe get an answer is if you're talking about Game Theory Optimized Poker, but I doubt anyone's solved that for 5 handed, and it also depends on how deep the game is and a bunch of other factors.

I know the "average hand" for a single player is Q7o, but all that means is that if you dealt out two random hands, Q7o is the closest to 50/50 equity against the other random hand. It's not really a useful piece of information to have.

Which brings me to my last point, what use is any of this information to you anyway? None of this is likely to make you a better player. But yeah, theoretically the average winning hand should be a better hand 9 handed.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I don't believe that any of my questions can be answered by a model or a formula: since behavior and table dynamics are involved, it has to be a "big data" study of millions of actual player situations. This could only be done with deep internal access to an internet playing community.

Why do I want to know? Well, the only thing I can control in the game is my betting. And each of these questions is asked with higher-quality betting in mind. I'm trying to supplement intuition.

The first question was about my bets before and after the River. I've been counting the outcomes for several thousand of the games I've participated in, and the median (not average) winning hand appears to be either JJ or QQ.

The second question was about my bets before the flop--when the only information I have is "what cards do I hold" and "what is everyone else's bet?" If I don't have a face card, it's less likely I'm going to hang in there through the river, let alone win. The question I've been asking is, is J enough of a face card. I've only been counting the outcomes of a thousand or so hands I've been in, but it seems like Q is the median high card of the winning hand.