Lucky Lucky Sidebet on poker tables in local casino
July 4th, 2013 at 11:23:30 AM
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Hey guys.
I'm not a statistician so I thought I would ask here. My local casino has a "Lucky Lucky" side bet on their poker tables that you can make before the cards are dealt. Minimum bet is $1 and max bet is $25. Here is the pay schedule.
I don't play this type of stuff but I was curious as to the house edge on the bet. I had a look at the Wizard of Odds site, but I only found a similar lucky lucky side bet for 6-deck blackjack...so I don't think those numbers apply.
Does anyone have any idea of what the house edge is? Thanks.
I'm not a statistician so I thought I would ask here. My local casino has a "Lucky Lucky" side bet on their poker tables that you can make before the cards are dealt. Minimum bet is $1 and max bet is $25. Here is the pay schedule.
| Flop | Payout |
|---|---|
| Suited 678 | 100 to 1 |
| 777 | 50 to 1 |
| Off suit 678 | 30 to 1 |
| Suited 21 | 15 to 1 |
| Any 21 | 3 to 1 |
| Any 20 | 2 to 1 |
| Any 19 | 2 to 1 |
| Else | lose bet |
I don't play this type of stuff but I was curious as to the house edge on the bet. I had a look at the Wizard of Odds site, but I only found a similar lucky lucky side bet for 6-deck blackjack...so I don't think those numbers apply.
Does anyone have any idea of what the house edge is? Thanks.
July 4th, 2013 at 11:44:38 AM
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I have a spreadsheet in google docs. I can't edit it now, but you can save a copy and edit yourself or wait until tomorrow when I can edit it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AqgvqxoJufj8dHNfUDFvdzdqMkVUcDVoUkoxdnZfaVE&usp=drive_web
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AqgvqxoJufj8dHNfUDFvdzdqMkVUcDVoUkoxdnZfaVE&usp=drive_web
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
July 4th, 2013 at 12:00:51 PM
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What type of poker game are you talking about?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 4th, 2013 at 12:11:59 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearWhat type of poker game are you talking about?
Just standard Texas Hold'em in the poker room. It is a sidebet on the table that you can make before the cards are dealt.
July 4th, 2013 at 12:14:15 PM
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I assume the bet is on the three card flop. The Lucky Lucky bet, for blackjack usage, is on the player's card plus the dealer's upcard.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
July 4th, 2013 at 12:14:44 PM
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Quote: mipletI have a spreadsheet in google docs. I can't edit it now, but you can save a copy and edit yourself or wait until tomorrow when I can edit it.
It can wait until tomorrow...no big rush. Thanks for the help!
July 4th, 2013 at 12:15:39 PM
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Quote: PaigowdanI assume the bet is on the three card flop. The Lucky Lucky bet, for blackjack usage, is on the player's card plus the dealer's upcard.
Correct. It is just the flop cards. The player's hole cards are not involved.
July 4th, 2013 at 12:24:58 PM
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Quote: kkrush1Correct. It is just the flop cards. The player's hole cards are not involved.
What happens if there is no flop?
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
July 4th, 2013 at 12:34:38 PM
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Quote: mipletWhat happens if there is no flop?
A no action push.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
July 4th, 2013 at 12:35:25 PM
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Quote: mipletWhat happens if there is no flop?
This is their official rule:
"If no flop is placed, all bets will be returned to the players, with the option given to the players to let the bet play for the next hand."
July 4th, 2013 at 12:38:38 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 4th, 2013 at 12:45:38 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesAre aces treated as in blackjack or are they forced to be a constant 1 or 11?
It is in standard blackjack fashion
- Aces count as 1 or 11.
- Face cards count as 10.
- Other cards are their point value.
July 4th, 2013 at 3:35:24 PM
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Let me see if I calculated this right:
Apparently not (which is usually why I confirm my math programmatically) - this is after corrections noted by Miplet
(* indicates any ten-value card)
Suited 678 - 4
One for each suit
777 - 4
One for each suit not in the set
Offsuit 678 - 60
4 (suits for the 6) x 4 (suits for the 7) x 4 (suits for the 8) - 4 (for the four suited 678s)
Suited 21 (besides 678) - 108
KQA, KJA. KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4
984, 975, A82, A73, A64 - 5
Total = 4 suits x 27 per suit
There are 24 possibilities for a particular flop that includes a pair
For example, for KKA, there are 6 ways to make the pair of kings (KsKh, KsKc, KsKd, KhKc, KhKd, KcKd), and for each one, four different suits for the ace
If there are three different cards, there are four suits for each card, or 64 ways in all
Offsuit 21 (besides 678 and 777) - 1984
KKA, QQA, JJA, TTA - 4 x 24
KQA, KJA, KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6 x 64 - 6 x 4 (already counted as suited)
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4 x 64 - 4 x 4 x 4 (already counted as suited)
993, 966, 885, AA9, A55 - 5 x 24
984, 975, A82, A73, A64 - 5 x 64 - 5 x 4 (already counted as suited)
Offsuit 20 - 1688
*55 - 4 x 24
992, 884, 866, 776, AA8 - 5 x 24
*9A, *82, *73, *64 - 4 x 4 x 64
983, 974, 965, 875, A72, A63, A54 - 7 x 64
Offsuit 19 - 1640
99A, 955, 883, 775, 766, AA7, A44 - 7 x 24
*8A, *72, *63, *54 - 4 x 4 x 64
982, 973, 964, 874, 865, A62, A53 - 7 x 64
Results:
The house edge is 1872/22100 = 8.471%
Apparently not (which is usually why I confirm my math programmatically) - this is after corrections noted by Miplet
(* indicates any ten-value card)
Suited 678 - 4
One for each suit
777 - 4
One for each suit not in the set
Offsuit 678 - 60
4 (suits for the 6) x 4 (suits for the 7) x 4 (suits for the 8) - 4 (for the four suited 678s)
Suited 21 (besides 678) - 108
KQA, KJA. KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4
984, 975, A82, A73, A64 - 5
Total = 4 suits x 27 per suit
There are 24 possibilities for a particular flop that includes a pair
For example, for KKA, there are 6 ways to make the pair of kings (KsKh, KsKc, KsKd, KhKc, KhKd, KcKd), and for each one, four different suits for the ace
If there are three different cards, there are four suits for each card, or 64 ways in all
Offsuit 21 (besides 678 and 777) - 1984
KKA, QQA, JJA, TTA - 4 x 24
KQA, KJA, KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6 x 64 - 6 x 4 (already counted as suited)
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4 x 64 - 4 x 4 x 4 (already counted as suited)
993, 966, 885, AA9, A55 - 5 x 24
984, 975, A82, A73, A64 - 5 x 64 - 5 x 4 (already counted as suited)
Offsuit 20 - 1688
*55 - 4 x 24
992, 884, 866, 776, AA8 - 5 x 24
*9A, *82, *73, *64 - 4 x 4 x 64
983, 974, 965, 875, A72, A63, A54 - 7 x 64
Offsuit 19 - 1640
99A, 955, 883, 775, 766, AA7, A44 - 7 x 24
*8A, *72, *63, *54 - 4 x 4 x 64
982, 973, 964, 874, 865, A62, A53 - 7 x 64
Results:
| Result | Hands | Payout | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suited 678 | 4 | 100 | 400 |
| 777 | 4 | 50 | 200 |
| Offsuit 678 | 60 | 30 | 1800 |
| Suited 21 | 108 | 3 | 324 |
| Offsuit 21 | 1836 | 3 | 5508 |
| 20 | 1688 | 2 | 3376 |
| 19 | 1640 | 2 | 3280 |
| Other | 16760 | -1 | -16760 |
| Total | 22100 | - | -1872 |
The house edge is 1872/22100 = 8.471%
July 4th, 2013 at 5:15:14 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
Offsuit 21 (besides 678 and 777) - 1984
KKA, QQA, JJA, TTA - 4 x 24
KQA, KJA, KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6 x 64
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4 x 64
993, 966, 885, AA9 - 4 x 24
984, 975, A82, A73, A64, A55 - 6 x 64
You have a few errors:
KKA, QQA, JJA, TTA - 4 x 24 ok
KQA, KJA, KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6 x 64 its over by 24 suited
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4 x 64 its over by 64 suited
993, 966, 885, AA9 - 4 x 24 ok
984, 975, A82, A73, A64, A55 - 6 x 64 it over by 20 suited and A55 is a pair so its over by 40
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
July 4th, 2013 at 6:03:45 PM
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Quote: mipletYou have a few errors:
KKA, QQA, JJA, TTA - 4 x 24 ok
KQA, KJA, KTA, QJA, QTA, JTA - 6 x 64 its over by 24 suited
*92, *83, *74, *65 - 4 x 4 x 64 its over by 64 suited
993, 966, 885, AA9 - 4 x 24 ok
984, 975, A82, A73, A64, A55 - 6 x 64 it over by 20 suited and A55 is a pair so its over by 40
Thanks for the catch. The numbers have been corrected (and confirmed programmatically this time).
July 4th, 2013 at 6:05:42 PM
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I agree with a loss of 1872 units per cycle, for a house edge of 36/425 ≈ 8.47%
July 4th, 2013 at 6:48:43 PM
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Seems odd to me that the payout for the rare suited 21 is the same as that of the much more common offsuit 21. Why bother to even have a separate line item in the table? I'd think that something like 10-1 for the suited 21 would make much more sense, and result in a house edge of around 5%
July 4th, 2013 at 7:10:38 PM
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20 and 19 had the same payout too.
July 4th, 2013 at 8:22:24 PM
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Quote: JB20 and 19 had the same payout too.
Yeah, but they are two different results with similar likelihood. Why would you create a separate line item for suited 21 with the same payout as unsuited 21, when you could just create a single line item for "any other 21"?
July 4th, 2013 at 9:19:29 PM
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Been done before ... Sort of.
"Pop the Flop" was a three-card-poker-based side bet based on the flop in Texas Hold'em. If memory serves, it was at Red Rock and Imperial Palace in Las Vegas.
Unfortunately, pop flopped.
"Pop the Flop" was a three-card-poker-based side bet based on the flop in Texas Hold'em. If memory serves, it was at Red Rock and Imperial Palace in Las Vegas.
Unfortunately, pop flopped.
July 5th, 2013 at 1:39:53 AM
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Quote: PapaChubbyYeah, but they are two different results with similar likelihood. Why would you create a separate line item for suited 21 with the same payout as unsuited 21, when you could just create a single line item for "any other 21"?
I don't know because I didn't create it. My point was that they could have similarly just made a single payline called "19 or 20." My guess is there are other paytables where the prizes for the 21s and 19 & 20 are different, since it is unusual to only create one paytable for a side bet.
July 5th, 2013 at 5:33:32 AM
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Ah crap....I made a mistake when I was putting the table together on my original post. The suited 21 actually pays 15-1 instead of 3-1. I've gone back and fixed my original post. Sorry folks for the mix-up.
What would be the revised house edge....around 2.6% if I've followed the calculations right?
What would be the revised house edge....around 2.6% if I've followed the calculations right?
July 5th, 2013 at 7:21:08 AM
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Quote: kkrush1Ah crap....I made a mistake when I was putting the table together on my original post. The suited 21 actually pays 15-1 instead of 3-1. I've gone back and fixed my original post. Sorry folks for the mix-up.
What would be the revised house edge....around 2.6% if I've followed the calculations right?
That makes more sense. Thanks!
July 5th, 2013 at 8:22:01 AM
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Quote: kkrush1Ah crap....I made a mistake when I was putting the table together on my original post. The suited 21 actually pays 15-1 instead of 3-1. I've gone back and fixed my original post. Sorry folks for the mix-up.
What would be the revised house edge....around 2.6% if I've followed the calculations right?
| Result | Hands | Payout | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suited 678 | 4 | 100 | 400 |
| 777 | 4 | 50 | 200 |
| Offsuit 678 | 60 | 30 | 1800 |
| Suited 21 | 108 | 15 | 1620 |
| Offsuit 21 | 1836 | 3 | 5508 |
| 20 | 1688 | 2 | 3376 |
| 19 | 1640 | 2 | 3280 |
| Other | 16760 | -1 | -16760 |
| Total | 22100 | - | -576 |
The house edge is now 576/22100 = 2.606%
July 5th, 2013 at 1:03:39 PM
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Thanks guys for taking the time to have a look at this. Much appreciated. Doesn't mean I would play it on a regular basis...but your work does satisfy my curiosity about it.
July 6th, 2013 at 5:47:26 PM
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What casino is this at?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
