Poll
50 votes (89.28%) | |||
3 votes (5.35%) | |||
3 votes (5.35%) |
56 members have voted
Mikhail Smirnov: 8h 8d
Board: 7s Js 8c 8s Ks
John Morgan: ? ?
On the river Smirnov bet $700,000. Morgan went all in with about two million more. Smirnov folded, showing his cards. Morgan has not said whether he had the straight flush or not.
What do you think was the correct play?
Link for more information: Russian businessman folds four-of-a-kind in $1M poker tournament.
Of course, the player who was there 1) was using his monwy (or at elast he has to asnwer to his sponsors) and 2) onepresumes he had been studying the other palyers and has made judgments on when they are bluffing or not. The latter is shaky, but it's real.
By the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.
Of course, now that it's over, I would NEVER ask the other player if he had the straight flush. As much as you are now trying to justify the fold and have convinced yourself that he had it, once you ask, you then have to judge whether or not he gave an honest answer. After all, the bluff doesn't end when the game is over.
Quote: WizardI want to say that I would have called also. I think the other guy had the As for a nut flush. Of course, I don't know anything about either player, and am not exactly a go-to person when it comes to poker commentary.
By the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.
The chance of someone making this play with the board paired would be even lower than that IMO.
Quote: DJTeddyBearCall. Seriously, what are the odds he's got that miracle straight flush? The odds are so long, that had this been a cash game and he had it, it would be a Bad Beat qualifying hand in most casinos.
Of course, now that it's over, I would NEVER ask the other player if he had the straight flush. As much as you are now trying to justify the fold and have convinced yourself that he had it, once you ask, you then have to judge whether or not he gave an honest answer. After all, the bluff doesn't end when the game is over.
After the flop the straight flush draw was a gut draw, not the made straight flush thus reducing the chances he is holding the 9 and 10 of spades there.
Quote: WizardBy the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.
Look at it the other way. Suppose the guy who raised had a flush. What were the odds the first player would have four of a kind? After all, he might also have thought the first guy had a flush. If I held an ace-high flush, I'd raise, too.
ON the other hand, as I recall from your show cards beat chips.
Call!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IMO, Absolute horrible play by folding AND showing your cards.
if it is in a cash game in a poker room
Call!!!!!!!!!!
at least there would be a bad beat jackpot hit
What would Maria Ho do?
The 2012 WSOP National Championship Champion (you heard it here first)
http://www.mariaho.com/
No way I'm good enough to fold in that spot. The other guy never admitted what he had, said he wouldn't tell out of respect for his opponent.
An interesting thing about that tournament, at the final table the players all agreed to table their hands when a pot was folded to them. No idea why.
Quote: Gabes22After the flop the straight flush draw was a gut draw, not the made straight flush thus reducing the chances he is holding the 9 and 10 of spades there.
After the flop, holding 9 and 10 is a straight.
I thank it is a good Fold.
I thank John Morgan is not buffing. If he is not buffing then he must have (Jack Full-House or the Straight-Flush, may be King Full-House)
I think John Morgan will just call if he has Jack Full-House or King Full-House.
So I think John Morgan has the straight-flush.
Also if a player is playing with 9 and 10 in this game, it most likely be Suited.
No way. Quite the opposite, in fact.Quote: FleaStiffI imagine the only reason he would do this is for the impact it might have on later hands where if he stayed in the game the other players would think he would really be holding great cards because he folded ones that were merely good.
By showing the quads, he's saying that, if the situation is right, and you sell the bluff very well, you can get him to fold a monster.
It's day 1 on top of everything. FOLD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote: buzzpaffFOLD It's a TOURNAMENT !
I'll fold inside Aces against an All-In followed up with someone else who has already called if both of them have a bigger stack than me and we're Pre-Flop. I'm not folding a 4oaK when there is literally only ONE OTHER HAND that can beat me. I play my probabilities at the Poker Table as much as possible, and I'm sorry, but I think I am going to be better than 50% to win that hand.
The explanation was that he knew the opponent is a tight player. Do you know when a tight player plays loose? He doesn't play loose to steal a few blinds, he plays loose to steal a huge pile of money early on in a tournament. He picks his spots.
If Morgan had the straight flush on the turn, don't you think he would have raised instead of calling a $200,000 pot sized bet? He had to believe that his opponent had a set hand, (perhaps a set, but more likely a flush or full house) to lead out with that kind of bet. A call on the turn actually decreases the value of his river action if it is a card that puts other strong hands on the board (a third 8, a second jack, the queen of spades), or if Smirnov was semi-bluffing, and did not make his draw. In other words, the best time for a raise, if Morgan did have the straight flush, would have been after the turn.
I think Morgan had a pair in the hole, possibly sevens or Jacks.
Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?
Unless I'm mistaken, you're talking about The Big One For One Drop game, right?Quote: WizardBob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough.
That was AREADY televised - on a 15 minute delay.
As I understand it, that particular hand occurred on one of the outer tables - without hole card cameras.
Quote: DJTeddyBearUnless I'm mistaken, you're talking about The Big One For One Drop game, right?
I don't know. Perhaps you can write to Bob and ask. I'll PM you the address of the show.
However, given the incomplete information, I have to believe that the fold was not justified. There IS such a thing as playing too tight, and folding rolled 8s for quads when there isn't a 3 of kind or 4-to-a-straight flush on the board is playing too tight. If the board was A-A-A-8-8, then a fold is probably warranted. But it's hard to imagine anybody playing 9s-10s unless they are in the BB in an unraised pot preflop. Given the fact that the guy had 8-8, I don't believe the pot would have been unraised.
Coincidentally, pocket 8s is one of my favorite hands at HSI. TWICE I had them, and had two people essentially push all-in in front of me when I already hit my quads!
I may do that. First I gotta download and listen to the show to see what was discussed. (I normally do that on Saturdays....)Quote: WizardI don't know. Perhaps you can write to Bob and ask.
Quote: WizardBob Dancer and I talked about this both off and on the air yesterday. I think it was off the air that Bob said that he heard that Morgan seemed angry that Smirnov folded the bet. However, maybe it was more shock than anger. Who knows how many people the story was told through before it got to me, and then you guys.
Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?
I woud say that he could conceivably make that kind of bet with either a FH or A-High Flush in that situation, or, of course, the Straight Flush. It is very doubtful that it was a stone cold bluff, so I won't factor that into it. Three different hand ranks that he could have played that, so I think you should lay 3:1. I wouldn't throw down for anything less than 5:1, but you'd be crazy to give that to me.
Quote: WizardBob Dancer and I talked about this both off and on the air yesterday. I think it was off the air that Bob said that he heard that Morgan seemed angry that Smirnov folded the bet. However, maybe it was more shock than anger. Who knows how many people the story was told through before it got to me, and then you guys.
Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?
Quote: Mission146I woud say that he could conceivably make that kind of bet with either a FH or A-High Flush in that situation, or, of course, the Straight Flush. It is very doubtful that it was a stone cold bluff, so I won't factor that into it. Three different hand ranks that he could have played that, so I think you should lay 3:1. I wouldn't throw down for anything less than 5:1, but you'd be crazy to give that to me.
Wizard,
I will have a bet of $200 to win $600 that Morgan did have the straight flush.
Edit:I I got this exactly backward. He should have called!!
Quote: MrCasinoGamesWizard, I will have a bet of $200 to win $600 that Morgan did have the straight flush.
Thanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.
Quote: WizardThanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.
I can't confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July.
Let me know how we can make this bet. If we can't confirm that the truth.
No hole-card cam = Push
Quote: WizardThanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.
OK Wizard,
If the truth will be known with a broadcast any time in 2012, then it is a bet.
Otherwise it is no bet.
Confirm if this is OK with you.
I like a good proposition bet myself, but I don't roll high with them because I am chickenexcrement. However, I will call the exact hand as a Jacks-Up Full House for $20 if you lay 7:1.
Alternatively, I'll take a Jacks-Up Full House OR Kings up Full House for $20 at 5.5:1.
I'd normally just ask for 5:1 with the latter, but I don't think he played like he had wired Kings at all. He called 200k on the turn when you'd have to put your opponent on a set. I'd have to try to scare him off my FH draw or Fold in that situation. I think it was a Jacks-Wired boat and some trap setting. The King wouldn't scare him because Smirnov would need them inside for a bigger boat, the pre-flop play rules out inside cowboys for Smirnov, from Morgan's standpoint, I would say.
Quote: Gabes22You have to play a 4 of a kind there. If he has the 9 and 10 of spades just tip your hat to him. He could just as easily be raising with pocket Ks, Js or 7s with a full house, perhaps even a Ace high flush. There are so many raisable hands there that you can beat.
+1 Nothing for me to add. Gotta call.
I'll vote for FH J's/8's
Its still a call obviously and I wasn't at the table, but I think its pretty rare he has anything but JJ and 9sTs here.
Its not as bad as it seems. The guy calls preflop, calls flop, calls turn, and jams river. That line really does a lot to define his range.
I don't know anything about this player, but a lot of players just won't have JJ much after flatting flop or KK after flatting preflop.
I can't find the exact details of the hand, but I think they were deep enough that raising 77 on the river is just spew. There are a lot of full houses and those are the only hands that are calling.
No doubt its a call, but the only way you should be excited about it is if your opponent is a giant fish and jams the As.
Zcore13
The shove on the river is for ~170BBs more.
He has the nutflush never. He has 77 almost never.
This isn't a 100BB deep hand. Its over 200BBs deep where the preflop raise was a minraise and the flopbet was small. Which makes the turn and river actually play deeper.
It is a call, but I don't think you are winning here as often as some people seem to think.
He thought his quads were beat, that says it all !
If in the money, no f'in way do I fold Quads, no way.
Even late, near the money with that board, I'll call the shove.
Late tournament means play'em if ya gottem.
Fishhooks full by the turn with a waste card.
Spade Ace with paint, maybe... but that board is paired.
Nothing like the wrong move at the wrong time (Shoving the pot with Ace-Flush/FH).
I think the Russian regrets it.
Besides, pocket Jacks sux.