Academy Award Nominations
Quote: Wizard's Oscar bets last year
In 2011 the Wizard:
Bet $21,635 on these three sure things to win $588.09
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Best actor -- Colin Firth
Bet $19,322.50 on these three almost sure things to win $2,250
Best actress -- Natalie Portman
Best Visual Effects - Inception
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale
Bet $8,055 on these two likely outcomes to win $1,850
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Bet $1,837.50 on these four technical awards to win $300
Best Sound Editing - Inception
Best Sound Mixing - Inception
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Make Up - The Wolfman
Until finally missing on the Best Cinematographer Award and losing $275. It was the bet with the highest payback.
Odds were initial ones set in Britain
Best Picture
The Artist - Bet $7 to win $2
The Descendants - Bet $2 to win $7
all 8 other nominations are considered long shots
Best Actor
George Clooney - Bet $9 to win $4
Jean Dujardin - Bet $4 to win $7
others are long shots
Best Actress
Meryl Streep - Bet $15 to win $8
Heavy favorite: Second and Third place are 3:1
Meryl has not won in 28 years, this is her 13th nomination in a row without winning and 4th out of the last 5 years. It is also her 17th nomination overall.
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Bet $12 to win $1
Plummer is overwhelming favorite partly because he was ignored for over 50 years; partly because one 'gay' film must win a major award
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer - Bet $8 to win $1
heavily favored for her role in The Help
IMHO, the only questionable choice will be Meryl Streep. Bad feelings about the movie story and direction may accumulate and obscure her acting role. The movie received no other nominations except for "Best Makeup".
The Fall of a Dynasty The Pixar film "Cars 2" didn't even rate a nomination for Animated Feature Film. For the first time in years this category is questionable with two relatively unknown films and two sequels.
"A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots" Chris Miller
"Rango" Gore Verbinski
Quote: AcesAndEightsWhere does one place these bets? Just curious.
I use Pinnacle and Bodog.
Quote: WizardI use Pinnacle and Bodog.
The betting odds at Pinnacle are similar to the British ones I gave above, but there are some additional bets. For animated feature it is simply a bet if Rango will win or lose.
Christopher Plummer is bet $16 to win $1 on Pinnacle. That seems to be this years sure winner.
I can't find them on Bovada. Maybe they aren't posted yet.
Best Actor: George Clooney – The Descendants -400
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -190
Best Animated Feature: Rango -380
BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius -145
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449
Best Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER: -1600
Best Supporting Actress: OCTAVIA SPENCER -900
Quote: NareedThis year is different, for me. Not only did I not see any of those movies (last movie I saw in a theater was The Dark Knight), I wasn't even aware of most of them.
The Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.
The top 30 movies account for roughly half the box office tickets sold for the year in the USA.
Quote: pacomartinThe Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.
The initial change from 5 to 10 was made last year.
This year, the rules were changed again - when someone makes their nominations for Best Picture, they list up to ten films in preference order, and if between five and ten films are ranked #1 by at least 5% of the voters (which is what happened this year), those are the nominees (which is why there are nine of them).
Quote: pacomartinThe Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.
That doesn't change three things:
1) I haven't seen a new movie in years.
2) One you've seen the arrivals, the rest of the broadcast is superflous (unless, I suppose, you made bets and live near a bridge)
3) This is the same "Academy" that did NOT give an award for best movie to "Citizen Kane"
BTW: :P
Quote: WizardBest Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -190
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449
It will be interesting to see how much you wager on these two options.
Quote: pacomartinIt will be interesting to see how much you wager on these two options.
I'm sure I'll bet the Artist quite big. Meryl will be a much smaller play, although just from personal handicapping, I sense she'll win. She is overdue and it was a great performance -- although in a pretty bad movie.
Quote: Wizard
Best Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER: -1600
Plummer is the only sure thing, and not because
he's -1600. He's a fabulous actor who's never given
a bad performance, and even at 81 he still hits it
out of the park.
Quote: WizardShe is overdue and it was a great performance .
She always gives a great performance. She puts all she's
got into every role, she becomes that person. Unlike actors
like Julia Roberts, who, without her balloon-like collegen lips,
would be a nobody.
Quote: EvenBobPlummer is the only sure thing, and not because he's -1600.
We are talking about what are the best bets to make to earn money, personal appreciation aside, Christopher Plummer was probably just as good in The Last Station two years ago as he was in Beginners this year. But the movie gods said that an evil Nazi would win the best supporting actor two years ago and Christopher Waltz took home the Oscar.
People liked "Inglorious Basterds" and they didn't see "The Last Station".
I'm a little worried about Meryl Streep. It is difficult to completely separate a good performance from a bad movie. In addition to the Wizard not liking the movie, it got very bad professional reviews.
Quote: WizardI'm sure I'll bet the Artist quite big. Meryl will be a much smaller play, although just from personal handicapping, I sense she'll win. She is overdue and it was a great performance -- although in a pretty bad movie.
Isn't there a thing about gambling that NOTHING is overdue... Just because Black 10 on Roulette hasn't hit for 1000 spins doesn't mean that it's due to hit this time ;)
That being said, I know the Academy Awards voters are probably the exception to this rule. Then again, how many times was Susan Lucci due to win, only to be spurned, time and time again. Other than Glenn Close and Mara Rooney, there seems to be the possibility of a three-way race. I don't bet on the Oscars, but I'd take my chances on Michelle Williams, especially given Kenneth Branagh's longshot odds.
The Artist seems destined to win, and this is a year that will be sentimental for some Hollywood schmalz, so Williams as Monroe seems like a decent shot.
Again, I don't bet, or vote for that matter, and haven't seen any of the performances, so this is me just talking out of my a--, as I wait for my connecting flight...
Quote: WizardHere are the Pinnacle odds as of Jan 26:
Best Actor: George Clooney – The Descendants -400
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -190
Best Animated Feature: Rango -380
BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius -145
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449
Best Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER: -1600
Best Supporting Actress: OCTAVIA SPENCER -900
Updated Pinnacle Odds (Cheaper for all bets except Meryl Streep)
Best Actor: George Clooney – The Descendants -367
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -230
Best Animated Feature: Rango -325
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer: -1450
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer -600
Best Director & Picture not available on Pinnacle
Quote: pacomartinUpdated Pinnacle Odds (Cheaper for all bets except Meryl Streep)
Best Actor: George Clooney – The Descendants -367
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -230
Best Animated Feature: Rango -325
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer: -1450
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer -600
Best Director & Picture not available on Pinnacle
Things have changed even more with the Oscars coming up in just under 2 weeks...
Current (selected) pinnacle odds:
Best Actor:
JEAN DUJARDIN -101
Field -116
(Clooney no longer listed)
Best Actress:
401 Viola Davis - The Help -125
402 Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady +111
Best Animated Feature:
Rango -800
Best Picture:
The Artist -661
Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer: -3500 (!!!)
Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer -1050
Interesting that Meryl Streep went from favorite to underdog, did something come out in the news or some notable event influence that race? I don't really pay attention to entertainment news.
So I have to ask, because I am a n00b to online gambling, is it safe for Americans to get money in and out of Pinnacle and Bovada these days? I thought they cracked down on that stuff the same as online poker as of the big Black Whatever on April 15 this year? I have tried poking around the web to get more info but it's a haze of misinformation out there. I'd like to make a couple of these bets this year (at small stakes) just to test the waters.
You think -3500 ($1.0285) is bad for Plummer? He's at -10000 ($1.01) at other bookies.
From their FAQ: "Pinnacle Sports does not accept bets from the United States of America."
Quote: mickpkI see Pinnacle listing a choice between Clooney (-101, $1.99) and Dujardin (-113, $1.885).
You think -3500 ($1.0285) is bad for Plummer? He's at -10000 ($1.01) at other bookies.
From their FAQ: "Pinnacle Sports does not accept bets from the United States of America."
Yep, the Pinnacle line has changed since I posted a couple of hours ago.
For a US resident to get action on Pinnacle, I guess you have to have a confederate/address in Canada or another country, or pull some other shenanigans.
