WSOP Futures for 2011

Every year take a close look at bets on the World Series of Poker. I love it when there is a big name in the Final Nine, because all the squares bet on him, creating value the other way. Unfortunately, this year is a bunch of no-names, as usual. Thus there are no strong bets to be found, although a few marginal ones.

The following table shows the chip stacks (in millions), probability of winning (which I believe to be proportional to stack size), fair line on the win, and the Pinnacle lines for and against each player.

Player	Chips (mil)	Prob.	Fair Yes	Pin Yes	Pin No
Giannetti	24.75	12.02%	732	603	-715
Bou-Nahra	19.7	9.57%	945	1050	-1400
O'Dea	33.925	16.47%	507	446	-511
Collins	23.875	11.59%	763	647	-775
Makievskyi	13.825	6.71%	1390	1262	-1822
Holden	12.375	6.01%	1564	1311	-1871
Heinz	16.425	7.98%	1154	986	-1286
Lamb	20.875	10.14%	886	541	-633
Stazko	40.175	19.51%	413	423	-483

I put in a modest wager against Ben Lamb. I show it fair at -886 and Pinnacle is offering -633. 5 Dimes also has these bets, but I didn't see anything good.

The book at the Wynn was in the news last year for getting approval to put up lines on the WSOP. Have you compared their lines to the internet books?

i watched some episodes of wsop, it was very weird, every one was playing hyper agressive, they were calling raises all the way to the river with only medium pair or even bottom pairs. i dont remember other players but ben lamb was probably one of the few who had controlled agression. so i would not bet against him. then again i am a poor holdem player.

Quote: Ayecarumba

The book at the Wynn was in the news last year for getting approval to put up lines on the WSOP. Have you compared their lines to the internet books?

Dang. I was just there last night but didn't go into the sports book, because I didn't know they were doing WSOP bets.

Quote: Wizard

I put in a modest wager against Ben Lamb.

If I was inclined to go nuts for Stazko, what would be the max any one book would allow me to wager?

Five different prop wagers on the WSOP final were approved:

Quote: Las Vegas Review Journal

�-- Who will be the first player to bust out when the field of nine reconvenes?

�-- Will the current chip leader win the Main Event?

�-- What poker hand will determine the champion?

�-- What will be the total number of hands dealt at the final table?

�-- Will there will be more red cards or black cards on the final table's first flop?

According to the article, not much action is expected this year, and the books close to all WSOP props on November 6, before the final begins.

Also, of note was a recent announcement that the timing of the final has been changed to accomodate 15 min. delayed broadcast of the entire final (including showing pocket cards at the conclusion of each hand). Given that there is not an overwhelming chip leader right now, it could be a marathon broadcast.

I would assume the RIO is taking action since that is the site of the WSOP...can anyone confirm?

I'll be at the Orleans this weekend and may stop at the RIO to place a small wager on Collins

My bridge-jumper bet that Ben Lamb would not win is not looking so good. I laid 611 odds. He is now one of the last three and has 27% of the chips.

Quote: Wizard

My bridge-jumper bet that Ben Lamb would not win is not looking so good. I laid 611 odds. He is now one of the last three and has 27% of the chips.

I think you are going to be okay Wiz. Lamb almost busted out but managed to catch a flush and hang on. Given an even distribution of strong and weak hands between the remaining players, I don't think he, nor Staszko can beat Heinz. Also, I think he used up all his good luck flopping quad kings to knock out the fourth place finisher.

The blinds are so high now (800k/1.6M + 200k ante), luck is much more of a factor.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Of note was a recent announcement that the timing of the final has been changed to accomodate 15 min. delayed broadcast of the entire final (including showing pocket cards at the conclusion of each hand).

The 15-minute delay or hiding of the pocket cards was easily explained in view of the "live" broadcast. But what is the purpose of having both? Fail-safe?

Quote: SanchoPanza

The 15-minute delay or hiding of the pocket cards was easily explained in view of the "live" broadcast. But what is the purpose of having both? Fail-safe?

The Nevada Gaming Commission put in the dealy since pocket cards are shown after each hand, and all the players are miked. If they didn't show pocket cards unless there was a showdown, or a player opted to show his cards, the broadcast would be very boring for home viewers (and the analysts would have nothing to analyze.) The "pocket cam" is what gave birth to the poker renaissance. It is still appealing.

Miking all the players allows the home viewers to overhear player's conversations away from the table. The commentators mentioned that they overheard some players (away from the table) talking about the cards they folded, while the hand was still playing out.

Each player must have a team of folks in rooms upstairs watching the broadcast and relaying information to "coaches" on the rail. If it were up to me, I'd have dedicated observers in the arena for each of my opponents who would be responsible for matching up the actual hands with the players actions and tells. They would communicate with my "coach", who would confer with on the rail every time I wasn't in a hand. I'd be interested to see how each team actually organized and analyzed all the available information.

I also wonder what eavesdropping countermeasures the NGC had the broadcasters put in (if any). It wouldn't take much for a tape jockey in a trailer out in the parking lot to text the pocket cards in real time to a confederate in the arena.

Looking good, Wiz!

Congrats Wiz no cliffjumping today.

Quote: kenarman

Congrats Wiz no cliffjumping today.

Yay! And the expression is a "bridge jumper bet."

Quote: Wizard

Yay! And the expression is a "bridge jumper bet."

I think it was all those Acapulco posts.