Academy Awards Time
| Bet | Amt | odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 200 | -400 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2230 | -892 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 400 | -800 |
| Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network | 1000 | -2000 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 350 | -700 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 2260 | -452 |
| Best original screenplay -- King's Speech | 857.5 | -343 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 1775 | -710 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2342.5 | -937 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1335 | -3505 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 950 | -950 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 1187.5 | -475 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2375 | -950 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 | 4500 | -4500 |
| Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 500 | -500 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 4500 | -4500 |
| Visual Effects - Inception | 950 | -950 |
For whatever reason, most of the time the winners are all but known in advance. For example, Colin Firth is just not going to lose for best actor. I hate to lay 45 to 1 on anything, but the reality is that it is an easy way to make 2.22% on your money in one night.
I plan to put more down later.
The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
Quote: pacomartinYou look to be good on those bets. You stayed away from the two very difficult categories of "supporting actress" and "best director".
The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
I was sold until I saw Winter's Bone. Jennifer Lawrence gave the best female performance last year. But no one saw the film.
Quote: EvenBobColin Firth cannot lose. Its easy for an actor to deliver lines. Colin Firth made you believe he was in anguish over his stuttering, his facial expressions whole demeanor were right in character. Anybody who plays James Bond never wins anything for a reason.
Daniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like). Sean Connery has an Oscar, 2 BAFTAS and 3 Golden Globes (mostly for the Name of the Rose and the Untouchables). Yeah, I looked them. I was pretty sure either of them would have won something in their careers.
Both are fine fine actors. The other four... not so much, though Pierce Brosnan has his moments.
Ballots were due yesterday, and the winners will not be announced until Sunday. The days in between open up some risk to the books from insiders. I think they lay the risk off with small caps on wagers, but what will they do if there is a strong swing from IP addresses in the Hollywood zip code?
Quote: thecesspitDaniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like)..
I never look at anything but Oscars, they don't mean anything.
You should have said "no James Bond wins an Oscar", which is more quiet true. And who cares? James Bond franchise films are not about Oscar nominated performances, but instead cheesy British Action heroes. Turn off brain and place in box.
| Bet | Amt | odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 200 | -400 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2230 | -892 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 400 | -800 |
| Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network | 1000 | -2000 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 350 | -700 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 2260 | -452 |
| Best original screenplay -- King's Speech | 857.5 | -343 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 1775 | -710 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2342.5 | -937 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1335 | -3505 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 950 | -950 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 1187.5 | -475 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2375 | -950 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 | 4500 | -4500 |
| Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 500 | -500 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 4500 | -4500 |
| Visual Effects - Inception | 950 | -950 |
| Best Picture - The King's Speech | 1250 | -500 |
| Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale - The Fighter | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 600 | -600 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best Visual Effects - Inception | 1300 | -1300 |
| Best Picture - The King's Speech | 725 | -290 |
| Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale | 1250 | -500 |
| Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 475 | -475 |
| Best Make Up - The Wolfman | 400 | -400 |
| Best Cinematography - True Grit | 275 | -275 |
| Best Film Editing - The Social Network | 350 | -350 |
| Best Visual Effects - Inception | 1400 | -1400 |
| Best Sound Editing - Inception | 900 | -1800 |
| Best Sound Mixing - Inception | 187.5 | -375 |
Quote: thecesspitDaniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like). Sean Connery has an Oscar, 2 BAFTAS and 3 Golden Globes (mostly for the Name of the Rose and the Untouchables).
Both are fine fine actors. The other four... not so much, though Pierce Brosnan has his moments.
I liked Pierce Brosnan well enough in the Bond role, but I think Daniel Craig
and the directors who have cut down on the Roger Bore slapstick have
breathed some life back into the franchise. I assume there will be another
installment coming...
W/L: 34-1
Total bet: $51,125.00
Total win: $4,713.09
Pct. win: 9.22%
This is typical. Just bet the favorites and you pretty much can't go wrong.
Also, do NOT try to handicap the awards. I talked myself out of betting Melissa Leo for best supporting actress, Toy Story 3 for best song, and the King Speech for best direction, because I thought other movies were more or equally deserving. All three of those won.
It just goes to show that most winners are known in advance via the Hollywood buzz. Don't question why, just go with the flow.
| Best animated Feature | Toy Story 3 | $21,635.00 | $588.09 | 2.72% | 2.51% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best actor | Colin Firth | 2.91% | |||
| Best adapted screenplay | Social Network | 2.78% | |||
| Best visual Effects | Inception | $27,377.50 | $4,100.00 | 14.98% | 10.39% |
| Best actress | Natalie Portman | 10.86% | |||
| Best supporiting actor | Christian Bale | 12.86% | |||
| Best original screenplay | King's Speech | 22.61% | |||
| Best picture | King's Speech | 23.12% | |||
| Best Sound Editing | Inception | $2,112.50 | $25.00 | 1.18% | 5.56% |
| Best Sound Mixing | Inception | 26.67% | |||
| Best Make Up | The Wolfman | 25.00% | |||
| Best Film Editing | The Social Network | 28.57% | |||
| Best Cinematography | True Grit | -100.00% | |||
| $51,125.00 | $4,713.09 | 9.22% | 9.81% |
I am curious how your mind works at the end of the day. Are you sorry you put over $20K on low return ultra sure bets? Would you do it differently?
The riskiest bet that you made was on Natalie Portman IMHO. Many critics were saying that her performance, while still good, was not the best of the group, but the other four women were all in very small pictures with tiny production budgets that were completely shut out. As a result Natalie was predicted to win.
Do you get nervous when her category was being called? Or are you so used to betting that you don't get nervous?
Quote: pacomartinThe riskiest bet that you made was on Natalie Portman IMHO. Many critics were saying that her performance, while still good, was not the best of the group, but the other four women were all in very small pictures with tiny production budgets that were completely shut out. As a result Natalie was predicted to win.
Do you get nervous when her category was being called? Or are you so used to betting that you don't get nervous?
My father said the same thing. Personally I saw zero of the movies represented for best actress. However, I thought Natalie would win, not because of Black Swan, but more for her body of work up to that point. In other words, it was an "overdue" award. So, no, I was not very worried about that one.
The one that gave me so much pause I didn't bet it was Melissa Leo for supporting actress. I thought Hailee Steinfeld was much more deserving. As I wrote before, never listen to your gut when it comes to the Oscars, just bet every big favorite. Somebody please quote that back to me next year.
Quote: WizardMy father said the same thing. Personally I saw zero of the movies represented for best actress. However, I thought Natalie would win, not because of Black Swan, but more for her body of work up to that point. In other words, it was an "overdue" award.
Well both Annette Bening (age 52) and Natalie Portman (age 30) each had 20 movies, and Annette was on her 4th nomination over 2 decades, while Natalie was on her 2nd (over last 6 years). Both had a mix of well reviewed movies and lousy ones. So you really can argue that Annette Benning falls more into the overdue category.
Maybe the one with the hot sexy lesbian scene wins over the one with the mature lesbian scenes.
(guessing, guessing)
Quote: rxwineI believe Portman's movie had bigger popular buzz which probably helped. Also, I think movies where actors are actually physically taxed in the role (as opposed to simulated) probably picks up some good will or sympathy votes.
(guessing, guessing)
I agree 100%.
Quote: NareedPaco, do recall the Oscars are a popularity contest.
I realize that Natalie Portman is popular, and she's been acting in movies since she was age 11, and that she is having a baby. But Annette Bening is very popular also.
The real amazing success story was David Seidler, who was a real life stutterer. Age 73 and only having a handful of movies made in his whole career. He was working on the screenplay for the "King's Speech" for about 25-30 years. And he wins an Oscar.
Quote: pacomartinI realize that Natalie Portman is popular, and she's been acting in movies since she was age 11, and that she is having a baby. But Annette Bening is very popular also.
Not as popular, apparently. How much do you figure youth matters?
BTW a 9+% return on investment is extremely good. Perhaps not what we're used to in prop bets, but better than any other option I can think of (if you can discount the bridge-jumping factor)
no bet on best actor?
Quote: odiousgambitcongratulations btw !
no bet on best actor?
The Wizard put $5150 on Colin Firth for best actor and won $150.
The three "super sure" choices were:
Best animated Feature
Best actor
Best adapted screenplay
But he had to bet more than $21K to win less than $600.
He didn't bet on the "best director" or the "best supporting actress" because he felt conflicted.
On another topic, does the Academy ever release the actual vote totals? It would be interesting to know the margins of victory.
Quote: AyecarumbaOn another topic, does the Academy ever release the actual vote totals? It would be interesting to know the margins of victory.
It would be even more interesting to see how a nominee wins. I mean, whether they need 50.01% of the vote, or merely a simple plurality. I'm inclined for the latter.
I don't think they release that infomration, though.
Quote: Ayecarumba
On another topic, does the Academy ever release the actual vote totals? It would be interesting to know the margins of victory.
Two Price Waterhouse men are the only two inside the entire organization who know all the final tallies select the card that reflects the actual winner and destroy the rest. There is no permanent record kept, so the tallies cannot be released even 30 years after the fact.
The feeling has always been that it would cheapen the award if someone found out they won by a single vote. I wonder if the 5,755 are all qualified to vote for all of the awards? Do they actually watch all 38 movies? I only saw 8 of them this year.
Quote: pacomartinThe feeling has always been that it would cheapen the award if someone found out they won by a single vote. I wonder if the 5,755 are all qualified to vote for all of the awards? Do they actually watch all 38 movies? I only saw 8 of them this year.
What i know is that the ballot contains all the award categories (except the life achievement and other special awards). So regardless of whether they're qualified to vote or not, they can do so. I don't suppose many ever see the foreign language films, short subjects, documentaries and such.
Quote: pacomartinTwo Price Waterhouse men are the only two inside the entire organization who know all the final tallies select the card that reflects the actual winner and destroy the rest. There is no permanent record kept, so the tallies cannot be released even 30 years after the fact.
The feeling has always been that it would cheapen the award if someone found out they won by a single vote. I wonder if the 5,755 are all qualified to vote for all of the awards? Do they actually watch all 38 movies? I only saw 8 of them this year.
I know that certain categories are only voted on by those in the same field. This makes the award significant, as it is recognition by your peers. However, the "Best Picture" award, and maybe the four "Best Actor/Supporting Actor" awards, are open to all members of the Academy.
*Correction*-- According to the Academy website, it is the nominations that are restricted to members in certain disciplines. The voting for most categories is open all members:
Quote: Academy Awards website
The Nominations Process
Nomination ballots are mailed to the Academy’s active members in late December and are due back to PricewaterhouseCoopers, an international accounting firm, in January.
Regular awards are presented for outstanding individual or collective film achievements in up to 25 categories. Members from each of the branches vote to determine the nominees in their respective categories – actors nominate actors, film editors nominated film editors, etc. However within the Animated Feature Film and Foreign Language Film categories, nominations are selected by vote of multi-branch screening committees.
All voting members are eligible to select the Best Picture nominees.
The results of nomination balloting are announced at a 5:30 a.m. (PT) press conference the third week of January at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills.
Final Balloting Process
Final ballots are mailed to voting members in late-January and are due back to PricewaterhouseCoopers the Tuesday prior to Oscar Sunday for final tabulation.
The Academy’s entire active membership is eligible to select Oscar winners in all categories, although in five – Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, and Foreign Language Film – members can vote only after attesting they have seen all of the nominated films in those categories.
After final ballots are tabulated, only two partners of PricewaterhouseCoopers know the results until the famous envelopes are opened onstage during the Academy Awards presentation.
Quote: AyecarumbaCongratulations Wizard! I wonder about the present value of the cash to the book. How quick can you access the cash? Are there fees that eat into your win? I always think the online books are quick to get the money from punters, but slow to deliver actual winnings. Even if an account is credited overnight, to actually "cash the ticket", can take several days, if not weeks. In the meantime, I assume the book is picking up a bit of interest on your pile of cash.
Thanks! I had those funds in my accounts anyway, mainly for use in sports betting. I would not have bothered to make deposits just for the Academy Awards. Let the books have their interest on my money. What could I get on it safely here, 0.5%?
Quote: pacomartinWhen you do your sports betting, do you ever bet on + money options?
Almost exclusively.
Prediction
The Oscar goes to
Nomadland
Best Director
Chloe Zhao
I'm moving to Quartzite next week for the RTR ( Rubber Tramp Rendezvous) where parts of Nomadland was filmed. Cant wait to leave Vegas
First, the eligibility period runs from 1/1/2020 through 2/28/2021, instead of ending on 12/31/2020. I am not sure when the nominations will be announced; the awards ceremony is currently scheduled for 4/25.
Second, the required seven consecutive day screening can be in any of the following locations, instead of just Los Angeles County:
Los Angeles County, California
New York City (any of the five boroughs - there was a time when Manhattan was the only accepted alternative to LA)
Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties, California (note Santa Clara county, which includes San Jose, is NOT acceptable)
Cook County, Illinois
Miami-Dade County, Florida
Fulton County, Georgia
Destined to be one of the most remembered moments in Oscar history:
https://twitter.com/theplaylistnews/status/1508271778891714562?s=21&t=3kqdaljcrAXCKbubhoxqCQ
Quote: ams288Holy crap. Will Smith just ran on stage and assaulted Chris Rock after Rock made a joke about Jada Pinkett’s bald head (she has alopecia).
Destined to be one of the most remembered moments in Oscar history:
https://twitter.com/theplaylistnews/status/1508271778891714562?s=21&t=3kqdaljcrAXCKbubhoxqCQ
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Because he’s a role model….. I think he committed an assault in front of hundreds of live witnesses and millions around the world…. and returned to his seat….
My compliments to Chris Rock for handling it with class and humor.
I was watching later in the show when Smith gave his acceptance speech. What caught my attention was Venus Williams' dress. A generic Oscars logo kept cutting in and out, I suppose covering the best parts, but there was still some overexposure shown.
Quote: WizardI had to look up the incident. Here is an uncensored version.
My compliments to Chris Rock for handling it with class and humor.
I was watching later in the show when Smith gave his acceptance speech. What caught my attention was Venus Williams' dress. A generic Oscars logo kept cutting in and out, I suppose covering the best parts, but there was still some overexposure shown.
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The first time the Oscars static screen appeared, it was to cover up spit coming out of Smith's mouth; he mentioned it in his speech.
I'd like to watch the full censored version again but I can only find the uncensored one
Can one of our broadcasting gurus explain how live TV works? I've heard it's on a 5 second delay so they can cut things out if necessary
Quote: Ace2I was watching the Oscars last night but not very closely. I assumed the punching incident was a just staged joke at the time, but now learning otherwise especially after seeing the unedited version
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I think a skit writer probably would have had Chris Rock hold his cheek. Like so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHZvUeAdzeI
Such a stupid, hopefully career-killing move.
Me, I'd sue for assault.
Quote:Hair loss (alopecia) can affect just your scalp or your entire body, and it can be temporary or permanent. It can be the result of heredity, hormonal changes, medical conditions or a normal part of aging. Anyone can lose hair on their head, but it's more common in men.
Will Smith laughed at first, but I think his wife gave him dagger eyes and he flipped. Maybe if she had it in relation to cancer treatment. But women take hair loss pretty hard on average I guess.
Quote: rxwineWould you reject a date with a beautiful woman with a bald head? Or would that be an attraction killer?
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I went to college with Carol Alt. She was in our ROTC program and expressed an interest in the Pershing Rifles. When she discovered that shaving your head was required for the Pledge Field Training Exercise she found herself busy that weekend.
At the time, we were all male, but eventually, they began admitting women and head shaving was the first thing to go.
Hair loss from any cause, even chemo, is traumatic for most women. Ironically, many of them used to like making fun of bald guysQuote: rxwineOn a scale of 1-10, I can't rate Alopecia very high as a disability, particularly compared to a lot of other things.
Quote:Hair loss (alopecia) can affect just your scalp or your entire body, and it can be temporary or permanent. It can be the result of heredity, hormonal changes, medical conditions or a normal part of aging. Anyone can lose hair on their head, but it's more common in men.
Will Smith laughed at first, but I think his wife gave him dagger eyes and he flipped. Maybe if she had it in relation to cancer treatment. But women take hair loss pretty hard on average I guess.
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Quote: ThatDonGuyThe first time the Oscars static screen appeared, it was to cover up spit coming out of Smith's mouth; he mentioned it in his speech.
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What is your source this was the reason for the static screen? I still think the nip-slip sounds like the more plausible reason, although they did a bad job of timing it.
Quote: WizardQuote: ThatDonGuyThe first time the Oscars static screen appeared, it was to cover up spit coming out of Smith's mouth; he mentioned it in his speech.
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What is your source this was the reason for the static screen? I still think the nip-slip sounds like the more plausible reason, although they did a bad job of timing it.
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While the static screen replaced the video, they kept the audio going, and he mentioned it on the air. I can't say for certain that it was the only reason for the screen.
Edit: here is an ABC video of the speech, with the static screen, which first appears at the 3:21 mark. He makes the spit comment two seconds later, but the "nip slip" may have had something to do with it, especially after they removed the screen briefly and then put it back up; at 3:30, you can see Venus with her hand holding her dress up over her left nipple.
He should have been arrested. Instead he was feted with an award.
Quote: TDVegasHe should have been arrested. Instead he was feted with an award.
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Not only that, but almost certainly Smith will be invited back next year, to present (Leading Role) Actress. Whether or not Rock appears again in the near future may depend on how the academy feels about people saying, "And the Winner Is."
