Mega Millions Changes
Would someone be willing to analyze the new rules and tell as how bad a play this game still is? Thanks in advance.
Gene
https://www.masslottery.com/games/draw-and-instants/mega-millions
Quote: GenoDRPhSo changes to the Mega Millions multistate lottery take effect today. It's now $5 a play, with the player selecting five numbers between 1-70 and one Mega Ball number between 1-24. Pay tables and probabilities linked herein, from my state's lottery website. I presume it's the same for all other states.
Would someone be willing to analyze the new rules and tell as how bad a play this game still is? Thanks in advance.
Gene
https://www.masslottery.com/games/draw-and-instants/mega-millions
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I did not realize that it was changing. That explains something that happened to me. A few weeks back a friend of mine from Las Vegas asked me to buy him some tickets. He wanted one ticket for each drawing for the next 10 drawings. The computer kept rejecting the ticket. At the time I had no idea why it would reject it as I had bought these tickets for him multiple times in the past. It appears that they didn't want to sell $2 tickets into what was becoming a $5 drawing.
1. 24 Megaballs instead of 25.
2. A Multiplier is included in the base price.
3. Seed increased from 10 million to 50 million.
4. Cost of ticket increased from $2 to $5.
As a reminder, there are 70 white balls and now 24 Mega balls. The player and game draw 5 white numbers and one Mega number.
Here are the weights for the multiplier. The lower right cell shows an average multiplier of 3x. The multiplier applies to all the wins except the jackpot.
| Multiplier | Weight | Actual Probability | Expected multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | 0.031250 | 0.312500 |
| 5 | 2 | 0.062500 | 0.312500 |
| 4 | 4 | 0.125000 | 0.500000 |
| 3 | 10 | 0.312500 | 0.937500 |
| 2 | 15 | 0.468750 | 0.937500 |
| Total | 32 | 1.000000 | 3.000000 |
Here is my math of the fixed wins. The lower right cell shows a return of 22.37% from fixed prizes.
| Match | Mega Ball | Combinations | Probability | Inverse Probability | Base Win | Total Win | Expected Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yes | 1 | 0.0000000034 | 290472336 | 0 | 0 | 0.000000 |
| 5 | No | 23 | 0.0000000792 | 12629232 | 1000000 | 3000000 | 0.047509 |
| 4 | Yes | 325 | 0.0000011189 | 893761 | 10000 | 30000 | 0.006713 |
| 4 | No | 7,475 | 0.0000257339 | 38859 | 500 | 1500 | 0.007720 |
| 3 | Yes | 20,800 | 0.0000716075 | 13965 | 200 | 600 | 0.008593 |
| 3 | No | 478,400 | 0.0016469727 | 607 | 10 | 30 | 0.009882 |
| 2 | Yes | 436,800 | 0.0015037577 | 665 | 10 | 30 | 0.009023 |
| 2 | No | 10,046,400 | 0.0345864262 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0.000000 |
| 1 | Yes | 3,385,200 | 0.0116541219 | 86 | 7 | 21 | 0.048947 |
| 1 | No | 77,859,600 | 0.2680448027 | 3.73 | 0 | 0 | 0.000000 |
| 0 | Yes | 8,259,888 | 0.0284360573 | 35 | 5 | 15 | 0.085308 |
| 0 | No | 189,977,424 | 0.6540293186 | 1.53 | 0 | 0 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 290,472,336 | 1.0000000000 | 0.223695 |
The additional return per 100 million in the jackpot is 6.89%.
The breakeven jackpot, without considering taxes, annuity or jackpot sharing, is $1,127,475,660.
The "lump sum" option generally cuts the win by half, so I would double that to adjust for the annuity.
Quote: WizardHere is what it looks like changed:
1. 24 Megaballs instead of 25.
2. A Multiplier is included in the base price.
3. Seed increased from 10 million to 50 million.
4. Cost of ticket increased from $2 to $5.
As a reminder, there are 70 white balls and now 24 Mega balls. The player and game draw 5 white numbers and one Mega number.
Here are the weights for the multiplier. The lower right cell shows an average multiplier of 3x. The multiplier applies to all the wins except the jackpot.
Multiplier Weight Actual Probability Expected multiplier 10 1 0.031250 0.312500 5 2 0.062500 0.312500 4 4 0.125000 0.500000 3 10 0.312500 0.937500 2 15 0.468750 0.937500 Total 32 1.000000 3.000000
Here is my math of the fixed wins. The lower right cell shows a return of 22.37% from fixed prizes.
Match Mega Ball Combinations Probability Inverse Probability Base Win Total Win Expected Win 5 Yes 1 0.0000000034 290472336 0 0 0.000000 5 No 23 0.0000000792 12629232 1000000 3000000 0.047509 4 Yes 325 0.0000011189 893761 10000 30000 0.006713 4 No 7,475 0.0000257339 38859 500 1500 0.007720 3 Yes 20,800 0.0000716075 13965 200 600 0.008593 3 No 478,400 0.0016469727 607 10 30 0.009882 2 Yes 436,800 0.0015037577 665 10 30 0.009023 2 No 10,046,400 0.0345864262 29 0 0 0.000000 1 Yes 3,385,200 0.0116541219 86 7 21 0.048947 1 No 77,859,600 0.2680448027 3.73 0 0 0.000000 0 Yes 8,259,888 0.0284360573 35 5 15 0.085308 0 No 189,977,424 0.6540293186 1.53 0 0 0.000000 Total 290,472,336 1.0000000000 0.223695
The additional return per 100 million in the jackpot is 6.89%.
The breakeven jackpot, without considering taxes, annuity or JACKPOT SHARING, is $1,127,475,660.
The "lump sum" option generally cuts the win by half, so I would double that to adjust for the annuity.
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I'm not anywhere close to being in the Wizard's league re mathematics
but I believe the best answer to the OP's question is that it is impossible to know "how bad a play this game still is" re the jackpot
impossible because it's not possible to know (afaik) how many tickets in total were sold before buying a ticket
obviously, the greater the no. of tickets sold, the greater the chance that if you were to win your prize would be less
I believe the Wizard's excellent calculations are based upon zero other tickets being sold which is of course all but impossible
if I'm wrong about this, I apologize, and would love to hear why I am wrong
.
Quote: WizardHere is what it looks like changed:
1. 24 Megaballs instead of 25.
2. A Multiplier is included in the base price.
3. Seed increased from 10 million to 50 million.
4. Cost of ticket increased from $2 to $5.
As a reminder, there are 70 white balls and now 24 Mega balls. The player and game draw 5 white numbers and one Mega number.
Here are the weights for the multiplier. The lower right cell shows an average multiplier of 3x. The multiplier applies to all the wins except the jackpot.
Multiplier Weight Actual Probability Expected multiplier 10 1 0.031250 0.312500 5 2 0.062500 0.312500 4 4 0.125000 0.500000 3 10 0.312500 0.937500 2 15 0.468750 0.937500 Total 32 1.000000 3.000000
Here is my math of the fixed wins. The lower right cell shows a return of 22.37% from fixed prizes.
Match Mega Ball Combinations Probability Inverse Probability Base Win Total Win Expected Win 5 Yes 1 0.0000000034 290472336 0 0 0.000000 5 No 23 0.0000000792 12629232 1000000 3000000 0.047509 4 Yes 325 0.0000011189 893761 10000 30000 0.006713 4 No 7,475 0.0000257339 38859 500 1500 0.007720 3 Yes 20,800 0.0000716075 13965 200 600 0.008593 3 No 478,400 0.0016469727 607 10 30 0.009882 2 Yes 436,800 0.0015037577 665 10 30 0.009023 2 No 10,046,400 0.0345864262 29 0 0 0.000000 1 Yes 3,385,200 0.0116541219 86 7 21 0.048947 1 No 77,859,600 0.2680448027 3.73 0 0 0.000000 0 Yes 8,259,888 0.0284360573 35 5 15 0.085308 0 No 189,977,424 0.6540293186 1.53 0 0 0.000000 Total 290,472,336 1.0000000000 0.223695
The additional return per 100 million in the jackpot is 6.89%.
The breakeven jackpot, without considering taxes, annuity or jackpot sharing, is $1,127,475,660.
The "lump sum" option generally cuts the win by half, so I would double that to adjust for the annuity.
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Jackpots are paid over long periods of time, and inflation will eat away much of the prize money. I'm sure winning $10,000 a year sounded great in 1960, but by 1980 it wasn't much.
Should be illegal to exploit stupid people. But here we are. Next? more balls? let children play? Buy now pay later? Accept EBT. Double taxes on winnings? Report jackpot amounts based on 20 year returns of winnings taken in cash, never spent and invested based on historic S&P 500 returns? Hide the house advantage? oh wait.
The main reason the average jackpot will be about 5/2 larger is because each ticket's contribution to the jackpot is about 5/2 larger while the probability of winning is essentially the same, 1 in 300 million.
Since both games basically used to be the same, it makes sense for one of them to stay that way while the other differentiates themselves by jacking up the price to five bucks for those who wish to throw away more money on a dream.
Quote:Jackpots are paid over long periods of time, and inflation will eat away much of the prize money. I'm sure winning $10,000 a year sounded great in 1960, but by 1980 it wasn't much.
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For lotteries that pay out a fixed amount each year over a certain period of time, you would be correct. For example, the Lucky for Life game grand prize is $1,000 a day ($365,000 a year) each year for the rest of your life, minimum 30 years. Inflation would certainly reduce the value of that amount year 30, for example, compared to year 1. In that case, it would behove of the winner to sock some money away each year, so more would be available in later years.
But Powerball and MegaMillions don't pay out a fixed amount over the life of the prize. These games pay out on an annually-increasing rate schedule. Payout for year 2 is larger than year 1, year 3 is bigger. You get the idea. And payment is structured to be 5% larger than last year's. That helps to blunt the impact of inflation or other factors that would reduce the relative value of the annuity.
There continues to be considerable debate whether to take the annuity or the lump sum. Imagine having that be your *one* problem in life...
I think of it as purely a cheap entertainment/fantasy for some (not me, and not all who do it – but some), and not really a calculation or belief at all. Spend a few bucks and for a little while dream about suddenly getting rich. I suspect odds of an actuall return aren’t that relevant to many, just the ticket as a license for someone to fantasize.
Kind of like me visiting a joint where lotsa super hot young things are known to hang out. And for the cost of a couple of seriously overpriced beverages, to mostly drool on myself and imagine for a few hours that if a magic bolt of lightening happened I could theoretically get incredibly lucky with sumpin’ that’s way outta my league, and prolly woulda been 20 years ago. To imagine if I could hit THAT! C’mon, just one time, baby, one time!
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote:Jackpots are paid over long periods of time, and inflation will eat away much of the prize money. I'm sure winning $10,000 a year sounded great in 1960, but by 1980 it wasn't much.
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For lotteries that pay out a fixed amount each year over a certain period of time, you would be correct. For example, the Lucky for Life game grand prize is $1,000 a day ($365,000 a year) each year for the rest of your life, minimum 30 years. Inflation would certainly reduce the value of that amount year 30, for example, compared to year 1. In that case, it would behove of the winner to sock some money away each year, so more would be available in later years.
But Powerball and MegaMillions don't pay out a fixed amount over the life of the prize. These games pay out on an annually-increasing rate schedule. Payout for year 2 is larger than year 1, year 3 is bigger. You get the idea. And payment is structured to be 5% larger than last year's. That helps to blunt the impact of inflation or other factors that would reduce the relative value of the annuity.
There continues to be considerable debate whether to take the annuity or the lump sum. Imagine having that be your *one* problem in life...
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I didn't know some lotteries increased payouts. It's not something I care about, as I buy a ticket every decade or so, but it is a good thing to know.. I thought it was a straight annuity.
Quote: GenoDRPh
There continues to be considerable debate whether to take the annuity or the lump sum. Imagine having that be your *one* problem in life...
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I make some assumptions about the people who play the lottery, and strongly recommend the annuity. Too many lottery winners are destitute after a year or two; there is a chance that the annuity will allow then 29 more chances at financial continence.
Quote: billryanQuote: GenoDRPhQuote:Jackpots are paid over long periods of time, and inflation will eat away much of the prize money. I'm sure winning $10,000 a year sounded great in 1960, but by 1980 it wasn't much.
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For lotteries that pay out a fixed amount each year over a certain period of time, you would be correct. For example, the Lucky for Life game grand prize is $1,000 a day ($365,000 a year) each year for the rest of your life, minimum 30 years. Inflation would certainly reduce the value of that amount year 30, for example, compared to year 1. In that case, it would behove of the winner to sock some money away each year, so more would be available in later years.
But Powerball and MegaMillions don't pay out a fixed amount over the life of the prize. These games pay out on an annually-increasing rate schedule. Payout for year 2 is larger than year 1, year 3 is bigger. You get the idea. And payment is structured to be 5% larger than last year's. That helps to blunt the impact of inflation or other factors that would reduce the relative value of the annuity.
There continues to be considerable debate whether to take the annuity or the lump sum. Imagine having that be your *one* problem in life...
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I didn't know some lotteries increased payouts. It's not something I care about, as I buy a ticket every decade or so, but it is a good thing to know.. I thought it was a straight annuity.
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The annual increase inflates the jackpot even more, since you get less money today discounted for interest a short time and more money later discounted for interest a long time.
But it makes people feel better that they're getting a 5% increase, as if the lottery is doing this out of the goodness of their hearts.
Quote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
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The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
Quote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
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Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
Quote: billryanQuote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
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Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
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I think the idea has potential. What if every time you filed your taxes you could sometimes win money. Sometimes a lot of money. Sometimes a billion. Of course, most people would still lose.
Quote: rxwineQuote: billryanQuote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
link to original post
Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
link to original post
I think the idea has potential. What if every time you filed your taxes you could sometimes win money. Sometimes a lot of money. Sometimes a billion. Of course, most people would still lose.
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NY talked about that a few years ago, but it went nowhere.. The details need to be worked out, but random drawings rewarding people for paying their taxes, showing up for jury duty, and voting would be something I'd rally behind.
Let's take some of the DOGE savings and launch the Good Citizen Lottery, open only to US citizens who are eligible to vote. Your entry ticket is your federal tax return.
I checked with a lottery retailer and the multiplier was never mandatory. They raised the ticket price because people wanted higher jackpots and justified it with a price increase. You can now spend $4 on a single Powerball ticket which you like and it includes power play and double play. You can purchase a Powerball ticket for $2 but it doesn't include power play or double playQuote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
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Quote: avianrandyI checked with a lottery retailer and the multiplier was never mandatory. They raised the ticket price because people wanted higher jackpots and justified it with a price increase. You can now spend $4 on a single Powerball ticket which you like and it includes power play and double play. You can purchase a Powerball ticket for $2 but it doesn't include power play or double playQuote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
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The lotto has a mandatory multiplier however. And is now $2 when it was a dollar for decades. Powerball also used to buy one dollar as well before raising it to $2. MM was a dollar at first and is now $5, a HUGE jump.
Quote: NathanQuote: avianrandyOne thing I just read I knew each $5 ticket the multiplier is included. What I didn't realize is each ticket is assigned a random multiplier of 2,3,4,5 or 10x. Used to be after the numbers were drawn a multiplier was drawn for all tickets. Now each ticket gets its own multiplier.
link to original post
The Lottery has been adding a mandatory multiplier for a few years now. Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto USED to be a base of $1, but for years they added a mandatory multiplier to all lottery tickets. I remember when the mandatory multiplier was added people on a lottery website were complaining that they NEVER wanted a mandatory multiplier in the first place, they wanted to keep being able to play just $1, not a mandatory base of $2. The Mega Millions jump to $5 is giving people an even WORSE taste in their mouths. 💡
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From the looks of it, California also has the mandatory multiplier, which is strange, as I am pretty sure the old "voluntary multiplier" was not available in California because of the separate pari-mutuel payouts for the non-jackpot prizes.
Quote: billryan
Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
Sadly, it is more likely that they will still buy a ticket but feed the kids a few less meals per week to offset it.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryan
Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
Sadly, it is more likely that they will still buy a ticket but feed the kids a few less meals per week to offset it.
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If an unintended side effect is a reduction in youth obesity, we can call it a win-win.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryan
Good. I hope they raise it to $25 a ticket and it makes people physically sick each time they buy a ticket. We can't legislate stupidity, but we can monetize it.
Sadly, it is more likely that they will still buy a ticket but feed the kids a few less meals per week to offset it.
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If an unintended side effect is a reduction in youth obesity, we can call it a win-win.
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In the future, we’ll have robots to slap our hands when we reach for an extra helping of dessert.
Quote:After the Pinellas County Sheriff’s deputy attempted to break up the altercation, Farthing allegedly kicked him in the face, USA Today reported. Following the alleged kick — which caused swelling and redness in the deputy’s face, per an arrest affidavit — he allegedly attempted to resist arrest by fleeing the hotel, but was apprehended, the outlet reported.
Farthing was booked into jail on April 30 and charged with one felony count of battery on a law enforcement officer and two misdemeanor counts of battery and resisting an officer, as well as a parole violation, according to court records viewed by PEOPLE.
Quote: rxwineMan wins 167 million and 4 days later this happens.
Quote:After the Pinellas County Sheriff’s deputy attempted to break up the altercation, Farthing allegedly kicked him in the face, USA Today reported. Following the alleged kick — which caused swelling and redness in the deputy’s face, per an arrest affidavit — he allegedly attempted to resist arrest by fleeing the hotel, but was apprehended, the outlet reported.
Farthing was booked into jail on April 30 and charged with one felony count of battery on a law enforcement officer and two misdemeanor counts of battery and resisting an officer, as well as a parole violation, according to court records viewed by PEOPLE.
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I believe that was the same story that the winner had a history of arrests for drug involvement. I am glad to see the money didn't change him.
Quote: rxwineMan wins 167 million and 4 days later this happens.
Quote:After the Pinellas County Sheriff’s deputy attempted to break up the altercation, Farthing allegedly kicked him in the face, USA Today reported. Following the alleged kick — which caused swelling and redness in the deputy’s face, per an arrest affidavit — he allegedly attempted to resist arrest by fleeing the hotel, but was apprehended, the outlet reported.
Farthing was booked into jail on April 30 and charged with one felony count of battery on a law enforcement officer and two misdemeanor counts of battery and resisting an officer, as well as a parole violation, according to court records viewed by PEOPLE.
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On the plus side, he should have plenty of money for bail and his legal defense.
