lilredrooster
• Posts: 6815
Joined: May 8, 2015
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 5:49:25 AM permalink
.
by PM I posed a question to the Wizard and he indicated if I posted it he would respond
the question has not been considered here (to my knowledge) or anywhere else that I know about
thank you

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down

but I don't know how to do the math to figure this out correctly

the Wizard answered my PM indicating that there is a way to figure this out although there may not be a handy formula

I'm looking forward to seeing his post

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11179
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 6:00:42 AM permalink
I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:10:09 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
by PM I posed a question to the Wizard and he indicated if I posted it he would respond
the question has not been considered here (to my knowledge) or anywhere else that I know about
thank you

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down

but I don't know how to do the math to figure this out correctly

the Wizard answered my PM indicating that there is a way to figure this out although there may not be a handy formula

I'm looking forward to seeing his post

.

For this one, you could either use the Beating Bonuses simulator or a binomial distribution calculator; the fact that these are flat bets at Even Money makes this quite easy to do if you are specifying a particular number of trials.

If you lose more trials than you win, then you are down money. The Binomial Distribution calculator can give you the probability of losing x or more where x is one more than half of all attempts.

You asked me not to attempt to do this until Wizard posts in this thread, so I won’t.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
TigerWu
• Posts: 5745
Joined: May 23, 2016
November 21st, 2023 at 6:16:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….

If we could ban EvenBob from just ONE roulette thread where he wasn't able to vomit his worthless masturbatory word salad of lies, we could actually have an interesting discussion about the game....
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11179
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 6:28:13 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO

I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….

If we could ban EvenBob from just ONE roulette thread where he wasn't able to vomit his worthless masturbatory word salad of lies, we could actually have an interesting discussion about the game....

I disagree. There really can’t be anything interesting about roulette. Any bright high schooler can have it figured out from A to Z in an hour. Lilred’s question that started this thread can be answered with just a few minutes work by Mission, the Wiz, Mental, Ace2, and likely a host of others. Just looking at Lilred’s guesstimation he’s probably pretty close.
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:32:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: lilredrooster

.
by PM I posed a question to the Wizard and he indicated if I posted it he would respond
the question has not been considered here (to my knowledge) or anywhere else that I know about
thank you

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down

but I don't know how to do the math to figure this out correctly

the Wizard answered my PM indicating that there is a way to figure this out although there may not be a handy formula

I'm looking forward to seeing his post

.

For this one, you could either use the Beating Bonuses simulator or a binomial distribution calculator; the fact that these are flat bets at Even Money makes this quite easy to do if you are specifying a particular number of trials.

If you lose more trials than you win, then you are down money. The Binomial Distribution calculator can give you the probability of losing x or more where x is one more than half of all attempts.

You asked me not to attempt to do this until Wizard posts in this thread, so I won’t.

I’d also like to add that what I have detailed above would work for literally ANY isolated Roulette bet, provided:

1. Running out of money is not possible.

-This is important because being able to bust out increases the bust rate substantially, though this effect would be diminished the greater the number of trials. The reason why is because, the greater the number of trials, the more likely you are to finish down anyway.

2. The bet amount is constant.

-The bet amount has to remain constant for obvious reasons.

The only added step would be to determine (based on the number of attempts) x, where x is the number of trials you’d have to lose in order to be down money. This would be a fairly trivial calculation that could easily be done with simple algebra solving for x where x is zero.***

This is possible for Roulette because amounts to be won (assuming a flat bet amount), unlike BJ and UTH (for two examples), are not variable.

***Let me explain that better. We would start with a fixed number of trials. At that point, we would determine how many of those trials lost would put us even using zero as the target result and x as the number of trials lost (multiplied by probability of losing) and overall number of trials, then —-number of trials - x —-multiplied by gain on wins as the number of trials won. Using zero on the right side of the equation would closely approximate x were x not exact. In an even money bet, x would be exact (unless the number of trials were an odd number).

I hope this explanation is phrased correctly. It would be easier just to do it, but I’m not allowed, per the OP. JK
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:33:58 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO

I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….

If we could ban EvenBob from just ONE roulette thread where he wasn't able to vomit his worthless masturbatory word salad of lies, we could actually have an interesting discussion about the game....

I disagree. There really can’t be anything interesting about roulette. Any bright high schooler can have it figured out from A to Z in an hour. Lilred’s question that started this thread can be answered with just a few minutes work by Mission, the Wiz, Mental, Ace2, and likely a host of others. Just looking at Lilred’s guesstimation he’s probably pretty close.

Just because I can solve for it doesn’t make it not interesting. If I can ever convince at least one person in my life not to play a-EV game straight up, then I have done the best job I can.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 7:02:47 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: Mission146

Quote: lilredrooster

.
by PM I posed a question to the Wizard and he indicated if I posted it he would respond
the question has not been considered here (to my knowledge) or anywhere else that I know about
thank you

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down

but I don't know how to do the math to figure this out correctly

the Wizard answered my PM indicating that there is a way to figure this out although there may not be a handy formula

I'm looking forward to seeing his post

.

For this one, you could either use the Beating Bonuses simulator or a binomial distribution calculator; the fact that these are flat bets at Even Money makes this quite easy to do if you are specifying a particular number of trials.

If you lose more trials than you win, then you are down money. The Binomial Distribution calculator can give you the probability of losing x or more where x is one more than half of all attempts.

You asked me not to attempt to do this until Wizard posts in this thread, so I won’t.

I’d also like to add that what I have detailed above would work for literally ANY isolated Roulette bet, provided:

1. Running out of money is not possible.

-This is important because being able to bust out increases the bust rate substantially, though this effect would be diminished the greater the number of trials. The reason why is because, the greater the number of trials, the more likely you are to finish down anyway.

2. The bet amount is constant.

-The bet amount has to remain constant for obvious reasons.

The only added step would be to determine (based on the number of attempts) x, where x is the number of trials you’d have to lose in order to be down money. This would be a fairly trivial calculation that could easily be done with simple algebra solving for x where x is zero.***

This is possible for Roulette because amounts to be won (assuming a flat bet amount), unlike BJ and UTH (for two examples), are not variable.

***Let me explain that better. We would start with a fixed number of trials. At that point, we would determine how many of those trials lost would put us even using zero as the target result and x as the number of trials lost (multiplied by probability of losing) and overall number of trials, then —-number of trials - x —-multiplied by gain on wins as the number of trials won. Using zero on the right side of the equation would closely approximate x were x not exact. In an even money bet, x would be exact (unless the number of trials were an odd number).

I hope this explanation is phrased correctly. It would be easier just to do it, but I’m not allowed, per the OP. JK

you forgot to factor in the the ability to make non-random bets, which somehow changes everything.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mental
• Posts: 1458
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 7:12:26 AM permalink
Since I am not supposed to answer the question, I will provide the numbers for single zero roulette.

`Probability of having up to #Win success in #Spin trials (a loss or breakeven).Prob     #Win      #Spin99.99%   10000      2000099.67%    5000      1000081.24%     500       100075.90%     300        60064.47%      50        100`

Just use BINOMDIST(num_successes, num_trials, prob_success, cumulative) on any spreadsheet
BINOMDIST(#win, #spin, 18/37, 1)

I agree with SOOPOO. There is nothing interesting or hard about the statistics of flat betting roulette.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 7:34:36 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 21st, 2023 at 7:44:33 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: lilredrooster

.
if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

I told you.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6815
Joined: May 8, 2015
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 7:53:36 AM permalink
.
several posters seemed to indicate it is a simple question to answer
but that's not what I got from the Wizard's PM back to me
he wrote this:

"My solution would be brute force combinations in Excel. I don't know that there is a handy single formula for that."

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Dieter
• Posts: 5707
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
November 21st, 2023 at 7:56:36 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO

I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….

If we could ban EvenBob from just ONE roulette thread where he wasn't able to vomit his worthless masturbatory word salad of lies, we could actually have an interesting discussion about the game....

That reaches personal insult.
3 days.
May the cards fall in your favor.
heatmap
• Posts: 2297
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
November 21st, 2023 at 7:56:45 AM permalink
i swear on my life that whenever i accidentally drop a chip and then i pick it back up and rehome it always hits that number and i lose half my value (i usually do 1 unit str up for each number until i hit the table minimum)
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 8:01:51 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
several posters seemed to indicate it is a simple question to answer
but that's not what I got from the Wizard's PM

They think it's simple because they don't understand what's going on. They think the house edge has an effect on every bet you make in roulette even in the short term. That pesky HE makes the game impossible to beat. This is absolutely true if you're talking long-term betting randomly you're screwed. Put in the extreme short-term, where you make the next bet and where we all live, there are no rules there is only short-term variance and you can get an edge over the game for one or two spins if you know what you're doing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Dieter
• Posts: 5707
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
November 21st, 2023 at 8:05:24 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: lilredrooster

.
if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Dangit, I really hate to agree with EvenBob, but this is almost exactly what I was going to contribute to the "interesting discussion".

If you've got a voodoo piñata (or whatever) that predicts spins accurately, I think you've got a chance.
Otherwise, you're just blowing in the wind.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Wizard
• Posts: 26713
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 8:07:43 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down
.

Here are the exact answers, to six decimal places.

Spins Net Win Push Net Loss
100 0.265023 0.069282 0.665695
200 0.207117 0.042698 0.750185
300 0.165841 0.030361 0.803798
400 0.134792 0.022893 0.842315
500 0.110664 0.017826 0.871510
600 0.091518 0.014167 0.894315
700 0.076106 0.011418 0.912476
800 0.063567 0.009298 0.927135
900 0.053283 0.007631 0.939086
1000 0.044796 0.006302 0.948902

This was with the binomial distribution by brute force in Excel. I am not aware of a simple formula to get these figures, although the Gaussian curve approximation would get you pretty close.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mental
• Posts: 1458
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
November 21st, 2023 at 8:26:57 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
several posters seemed to indicate it is a simple question to answer
but that's not what I got from the Wizard's PM back to me
he wrote this:

"My solution would be brute force combinations in Excel. I don't know that there is a handy single formula for that."

Isaac Newton discovered the binomial theorem about 1665 and later stated, in 1676, without proof, the general form of the theorem (for any real number n), and a proof by John Colson was published in 1736. So, the exact formula for the answer has been known for three centuries.

The binomial expansion is a simple formula when the number of spins, N, is small. It is a polynomial with N+1 terms. So Wiz is right that it is a PITA to calculate it by calculating the N+1 terms in the polynomial and summing them up when N is large. And there is no simple formula that gets an exact answer because the exact answer has N+1 terms and has already been simplified. Wiz correctly suggests that you can use a gaussian approximation for large N.

At first, I thought it odd that Wiz said plugging 3 numbers into Excel is 'brute force'. However, the algorithm that Excel does behind the scenes involves a very large number of floating point operations. Using it is easy peasy.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
rawtuff
• Posts: 344
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
November 21st, 2023 at 8:31:29 AM permalink
edited as well
Last edited by: rawtuff on Nov 21, 2023
So understand. Don't waste your time always searching for those wasted years. Face up, make your stand. Realize you're living in the golden years
Wizard
• Posts: 26713
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 8:46:27 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Hijacking warning. Let's not have discussion of your secret method to beat roulette ruin another thread.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 8:57:20 AM permalink
edited
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 9:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: EvenBob

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Hijacking warning. Let's not have discussion of your secret method to beat roulette ruin another thread.

So how do I answer statements that are directed at me like this one.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/38716-house-edge-effect-on-roulette/#post908816
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 9:07:25 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Wizard

Quote: EvenBob

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Hijacking warning. Let's not have discussion of your secret method to beat roulette ruin another thread.

So how do I answer statements that are directed at me like this one.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/38716-house-edge-effect-on-roulette/#post908816

You be a man of your word and stop talking about Roullet. You can answer that you don't talk about it anymore here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 9:11:29 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: lilredrooster

.
several posters seemed to indicate it is a simple question to answer
but that's not what I got from the Wizard's PM

They think it's simple because they don't understand what's going on. They think the house edge has an effect on every bet you make in roulette even in the short term. That pesky HE makes the game impossible to beat. This is absolutely true if you're talking long-term betting randomly you're screwed. Put in the extreme short-term, where you make the next bet and where we all live, there are no rules there is only short-term variance and you can get an edge over the game for one or two spins if you know what you're doing.

Do you think before you post or do your fingers simply open up their sphincter?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
November 21st, 2023 at 9:19:13 AM permalink
I guess that night I was ahead after 300 spins was just a 1 out of 6 fluke.

I think I'll stick to trying to doubling my session money by winning to +7 bets within 50 spins. I might run over on the number of spins. It'd be -13 bets or +7 bets with some error to be built in from bet increase/decrease creep.
Wizard
• Posts: 26713
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
November 21st, 2023 at 9:56:59 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Do you think before you post or do your fingers simply open up their sphincter?

Personal insult. I see you've already had three suspensions since September, so let's make it seven days this time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
• Posts: 26713
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 10:05:36 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

At first, I thought it odd that Wiz said plugging 3 numbers into Excel is 'brute force'. However, the algorithm that Excel does behind the scenes involves a very large number of floating point operations. Using it is easy peasy.

You're right. I should have done it the easy way. Here is how it works:

= BINOMDIST(Number of successes,Total trials, Probability of success, cumulative?)

The last term is 0 for exactly that many number of success and 1 or that many or less.

In the case of 100 bets:

51 or more wins = 49 or less losses = BINOMDIST(49,100,20/38,1)
Exactly 50 wins = BINOMDIST(50,100,18/38,0)
49 or less wins = BINOMDIST(49,100,18/38,1)
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
BillHasRetired
• Posts: 249
Joined: May 7, 2022
November 21st, 2023 at 10:26:57 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

{snip for clarity}
[...]They think the house edge has an effect on every bet you make in roulette even in the short term. That pesky HE makes the game impossible to beat. This is absolutely true if you're talking long-term betting randomly you're screwed. Put in the extreme short-term, where you make the next bet and where we all live, there are no rules there is only short-term variance and you can get an edge over the game for one or two spins if you know what you're doing.

This assertion is false. The House Edge manifests itself in every bet because every casino short-pays winning bets, never paying true odds. Flat-betting red? The odds of the ball landing on red is 18/38 for a double-zero wheel, thus, the correct payout should be \$1.05556 per dollar bet. The casino only gives you one dollar, shorting you five and a half cents. That's the House Edge.

Yes, variance is real--it is at the heart of the Gambler's Fallacy that a wheel (or dice, or cards, or RNG) is 'hot' or 'cold'. But the house will always take a bite out what it should really should be paying you. In many games, screwing with the pay tables is the only way the house can assert an edge, as well as collecting it. The only bet that I know of where the house will ever pay true odds is the 'free odds' bet in craps.

If EB has a beef with this, or wants to reply, I invite him to head over to https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/38710-roulette-of-spins/3/#post908822, where I offer some more details.
Mental
• Posts: 1458
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
November 21st, 2023 at 10:43:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Mental

At first, I thought it odd that Wiz said plugging 3 numbers into Excel is 'brute force'. However, the algorithm that Excel does behind the scenes involves a very large number of floating point operations. Using it is easy peasy.

You're right. I should have done it the easy way. Here is how it works:

= BINOMDIST(Number of successes,Total trials, Probability of success, cumulative?)

The last term is 0 for exactly that many number of success and 1 or that many or less.

In the case of 100 bets:

51 or more wins = 49 or less losses = BINOMDIST(49,100,20/38,1)
Exactly 50 wins = BINOMDIST(50,100,18/38,0)
49 or less wins = BINOMDIST(49,100,18/38,1)

This response is not for the Wiz, but for anyone who does not see how trivial it is to use the BINOMDIST() function in excel to answer probability questions even for very large numbers of binary trials.

You could get the same result as BINOMDIST(49,100,18/38,1) by calculating (sum over N=0..49 of BINOMDIST(N,100,18/38,0)). It is not that hard to calculate all of the terms and create the sum formula. The point is that the value 1 in the fourth argument tells excel to do the summation for you.

BINOMDIST(N,T,P,1) will give you the cumulative probability that you have between zero and N wins in T trials if the probability of every individual trial is the constant P. If you want to know how many trials will end with at least M wins but less than N wins, just subtract BINOMDIST(M-1,T,P,1) from BINOMDIST(N-1,T,P,1).

The answer to the question "What is the sum of 137 and 428?" has not been considered here (to my knowledge) or anywhere else that I know about. This does not mean it isn't easy to calculate the answer or that people with limited math skills cannot easily calculate it with a spreadsheet. The BINOMDIST() should be in every gambler's toolkit. It implements an accurate algorithm to answer an infinite number of questions similar to OP's question. I use BINOMDIST() frequently.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 12:14:29 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

Quote: EvenBob

{snip for clarity}
[...]They think the house edge has an effect on every bet you make in roulette even in the short term. That pesky HE makes the game impossible to beat. This is absolutely true if you're talking long-term betting randomly you're screwed. Put in the extreme short-term, where you make the next bet and where we all live, there are no rules there is only short-term variance and you can get an edge over the game for one or two spins if you know what you're doing.

This assertion is false. The House Edge manifests itself in every bet because every casino short-pays winning bets, never paying true odds. Flat-betting red? The odds of the ball landing on red is 18/38 for a double-zero wheel, thus, the correct payout should be \$1.05556 per dollar bet. The casino only gives you one dollar, shorting you five and a half cents. That's the House Edge.

Yes, variance is real--it is at the heart of the Gambler's Fallacy that a wheel (or dice, or cards, or RNG) is 'hot' or 'cold'. But the house will always take a bite out what it should really should be paying you. In many games, screwing with the pay tables is the only way the house can assert an edge, as well as collecting it. The only bet that I know of where the house will ever pay true odds is the 'free odds' bet in craps.

If EB has a beef with this, or wants to reply, I invite him to head over to https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/38710-roulette-of-spins/3/#post908822, where I offer some more details.

I'm afraid I've been told I can only discuss my roulette method in the one thread I have going about roulette. Look what happened in this thread, my posts threw two totally innocent bystanders into complete delirium, I injured their delicate sensitivities to such an extent that they were hurling personal insults at me and they both got suspended. I am wracked with guilt over this and don't want to see that happen to you. Please address anything about my roulette method in the thread where I'm allowed to discuss it. The gamble thread.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 12:18:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: lilredrooster

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down
.

Here are the exact answers, to six decimal places.

Spins Net Win Push Net Loss
100 0.265023 0.069282 0.665695
200 0.207117 0.042698 0.750185
300 0.165841 0.030361 0.803798
400 0.134792 0.022893 0.842315
500 0.110664 0.017826 0.871510
600 0.091518 0.014167 0.894315
700 0.076106 0.011418 0.912476
800 0.063567 0.009298 0.927135
900 0.053283 0.007631 0.939086
1000 0.044796 0.006302 0.948902

This was with the binomial distribution by brute force in Excel. I am not aware of a simple formula to get these figures, although the Gaussian curve approximation would get you pretty close.

I do not understand what these numbers mean. How do you get a push in roulette. Can someone break this down into layman's terms. I did not major in math I majored in American History and they did not cover this.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
BillHasRetired
• Posts: 249
Joined: May 7, 2022
November 21st, 2023 at 12:55:20 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I'm afraid I've been told I can only discuss my roulette method in the one thread I have going about roulette. Look what happened in this thread, my posts threw two totally innocent bystanders into complete delirium, I injured their delicate sensitivities to such an extent that they were hurling personal insults at me and they both got suspended. I am wracked with guilt over this and don't want to see that happen to you. Please address anything about my roulette method in the thread where I'm allowed to discuss it. The gamble thread.

If you have an intelligent response to any of my posts, then respond from your pied-a-terre and post the link here. Life is too short for me to search for some obscure thread to where you've been banished.
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 1:01:22 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

Quote: EvenBob

I'm afraid I've been told I can only discuss my roulette method in the one thread I have going about roulette. Look what happened in this thread, my posts threw two totally innocent bystanders into complete delirium, I injured their delicate sensitivities to such an extent that they were hurling personal insults at me and they both got suspended. I am wracked with guilt over this and don't want to see that happen to you. Please address anything about my roulette method in the thread where I'm allowed to discuss it. The gamble thread.

If you have an intelligent response to any of my posts, then respond from your pied-a-terre and post the link here. Life is too short for me to search for some obscure thread to where you've been banished.

Hardly obscure it's the top of the list and it's the only place I'm allowed to discuss this.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3831-how-much-gamble-do-you-have/25/#post908858
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DogHand
• Posts: 1658
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
November 21st, 2023 at 1:11:22 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Wizard

Quote: lilredrooster

if a player flat bets any even chance (one unit on one even chance) - what is the probability he will be down after a certain number of spins in double zero Roulette

my estimate is:

after 1,000 spins - 98% probability the player will be down

after 600 spins - 92% probability the player will be down

after 100 spins - 80% probability the player will be down
.

Here are the exact answers, to six decimal places.

Spins Net Win Push Net Loss
100 0.265023 0.069282 0.665695
200 0.207117 0.042698 0.750185
300 0.165841 0.030361 0.803798
400 0.134792 0.022893 0.842315
500 0.110664 0.017826 0.871510
600 0.091518 0.014167 0.894315
700 0.076106 0.011418 0.912476
800 0.063567 0.009298 0.927135
900 0.053283 0.007631 0.939086
1000 0.044796 0.006302 0.948902

This was with the binomial distribution by brute force in Excel. I am not aware of a simple formula to get these figures, although the Gaussian curve approximation would get you pretty close.

I do not understand what these numbers mean. How do you get a push in roulette. Can someone break this down into layman's terms. I did not major in math I majored in American History and they did not cover this.

EvenBob,

By "Push" the Wiz means you have broken even.

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 1:15:32 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So if you bet 10,000 times those figures remain the same?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 1:25:55 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: BillHasRetired

Quote: EvenBob

{snip for clarity}
[...]They think the house edge has an effect on every bet you make in roulette even in the short term. That pesky HE makes the game impossible to beat. This is absolutely true if you're talking long-term betting randomly you're screwed. Put in the extreme short-term, where you make the next bet and where we all live, there are no rules there is only short-term variance and you can get an edge over the game for one or two spins if you know what you're doing.

This assertion is false. The House Edge manifests itself in every bet because every casino short-pays winning bets, never paying true odds. Flat-betting red? The odds of the ball landing on red is 18/38 for a double-zero wheel, thus, the correct payout should be \$1.05556 per dollar bet. The casino only gives you one dollar, shorting you five and a half cents. That's the House Edge.

Yes, variance is real--it is at the heart of the Gambler's Fallacy that a wheel (or dice, or cards, or RNG) is 'hot' or 'cold'. But the house will always take a bite out what it should really should be paying you. In many games, screwing with the pay tables is the only way the house can assert an edge, as well as collecting it. The only bet that I know of where the house will ever pay true odds is the 'free odds' bet in craps.

If EB has a beef with this, or wants to reply, I invite him to head over to https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/38710-roulette-of-spins/3/#post908822, where I offer some more details.

I'm afraid I've been told I can only discuss my roulette method in the one thread I have going about roulette. Look what happened in this thread, my posts threw two totally innocent bystanders into complete delirium, I injured their delicate sensitivities to such an extent that they were hurling personal insults at me and they both got suspended. I am wracked with guilt over this and don't want to see that happen to you. Please address anything about my roulette method in the thread where I'm allowed to discuss it. The gamble thread.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11179
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 1:27:15 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So if you bet 10,000 times those figures remain the same?

My god no! All it means that out of the 10,000 bets you won 5,000 and lost 5,000. The likelihood of that exact event is extremely low. MUCH lower than the likelihood of winning exactly 50 out of 100. Which is of course much lower than the chance of winning exactly 1 out of 2….
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 1:38:47 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO

I was hoping for another roulette thread. I’m anxiously awaiting ‘but I make non random bets on the random outcomes, so I never lose…’. More sewage here….

If we could ban EvenBob from just ONE roulette thread where he wasn't able to vomit his worthless masturbatory word salad of lies, we could actually have an interesting discussion about the game....

That reaches personal insult.
3 days.

How does EvenBob not take a ban for derailing the thread? The math of Roulette does not depend on anything non-random in the context of the OP's post.

Fortunately, it seems that you guys have taken the action of restricting EB's Roulette methods to one thread. I'll have to seek that thread out in order to block it so it doesn't waste space on my recent posts list.

If there are no objections, will there be any further math-related Roulette questions, or has the ship sailed?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 1:40:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: EvenBob

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Hijacking warning. Let's not have discussion of your secret method to beat roulette ruin another thread.

I missed that post; sorry about that.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EvenBob
• Posts: 29071
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 1:51:07 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
gordonm888

• Posts: 5202
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
November 21st, 2023 at 2:10:03 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.

Let me double down on Wizard's admonition: EvenBob should restrict his discussion of roulette to the one (other) thread -and not engage in roulette discussions in this thread.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888

• Posts: 5202
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
Thanked by
November 21st, 2023 at 4:03:00 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.

Let me double down on Wizard's admonition: EvenBob should restrict his discussion of roulette to the one (other) thread -and not engage in roulette discussions in this thread.

I am reversing the guidance I issued above. EvenBob is indeed allowed to ask questions about roulette and discuss roulette on this thread, as long as he doesn't engage in a discussion about his 'roulette method' on this thread. I am a little skeptical that he can refrain from espousing his ideas, but I am giving him enough rope and will see what he does with it.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6471
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
November 21st, 2023 at 4:33:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This was with the binomial distribution by brute force in Excel. I am not aware of a simple formula to get these figures, although the Gaussian curve approximation would get you pretty close.

I don't think there is a "simple formula" as it is the sum of n results, where n is the number of spins.
Take the 100 spins case as an example.
Let p(n) be the probability that n of the 100 bets won; the probability that it is a net loss = p(0) + p(1) + p(2) + ... + p(49).
For double-zero roulette, p(n) = C(100, n) (9/19)^n (10/19)^(100-n)
p(0) = (10/19)^100
For n > 0, p(n) = (101 - n) / n x 9 / 10 x p(n-1) (where "x" is the multiplication symbol)
However, I don't think there is a way to simplify the sum.

The exact fraction for 100 spins is
`                               2,629,551,088,564,363,934,099,207,801,030,879,996,616,689,794,636,837,506,594,944,850,079,351,175,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000/                              3,950,085,484,118,525,497,024,052,097,529,573,238,897,049,443,942,607,252,543,835,470,215,867,415,609,371,393,307,890,303,310,063,934,009,000,876,624,970,111,349,493,579`
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:19:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: EvenBob

The first question is, how would he be choosing where to bet. Is he going to be doing the equivalent of standing at the end of the layout and just throwing his chips and betting wherever they land or does he have a specific non-random way of playing. This is the most important question in the whole thing and you conveniently left it out.

Hijacking warning. Let's not have discussion of your secret method to beat roulette ruin another thread.

for the record Are you declaring what Bob has indicated he does is in fact a method? Please clarify that statement. Because before I thought you said that everything you knew about his play indicated a system.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:21:28 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.

Let me double down on Wizard's admonition: EvenBob should restrict his discussion of roulette to the one (other) thread -and not engage in roulette discussions in this thread.

I am reversing the guidance I issued above. EvenBob is indeed allowed to ask questions about roulette and discuss roulette on this thread, as long as he doesn't engage in a discussion about his 'roulette method' on this thread. I am a little skeptical that he can refrain from espousing his ideas, but I am giving him enough rope and will see what he does with it.

Bob isn't supposed to be talking about roulette on this forum period. He made a deal with the mods and the forum. Mike should make him stick to his word.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
November 21st, 2023 at 6:22:00 PM permalink
Just because I'm betting Black and 19 out of 25 spins comes up Red and there's only 1 Green, only the 1 Green counts as HA.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 6:23:06 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Just because I'm betting Black and 19 out of 25 spins comes up Red and there's only 1 Green, only the 1 Green counts as HA.

What green, Bob ignors green as per his admission.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11179
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 21st, 2023 at 7:10:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.

Let me double down on Wizard's admonition: EvenBob should restrict his discussion of roulette to the one (other) thread -and not engage in roulette discussions in this thread.

I am reversing the guidance I issued above. EvenBob is indeed allowed to ask questions about roulette and discuss roulette on this thread, as long as he doesn't engage in a discussion about his 'roulette method' on this thread. I am a little skeptical that he can refrain from espousing his ideas, but I am giving him enough rope and will see what he does with it.

Bob isn't supposed to be talking about roulette on this forum period. He made a deal with the mods and the forum. Mike should make him stick to his word.

Axel, please link to the exact post you keep mentioning. I remember it in concept but would like to see it exactly. Thanks.
DJTeddyBear
• Posts: 11011
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 21st, 2023 at 7:49:58 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

by PM I posed a question to the Wizard and he indicated if I posted it …

I also frequently get a PM question that is better posted to the group, and tell the questioner to post it.

After all, why should I spend time answering a PRIVATE question that others may benefit from?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 21st, 2023 at 8:07:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DogHand

Thus, if you play 100 spins of roulette betting 1 unit each time on Red (or any other 1:1 payout bet), about 26.5% of the time you'll finish ahead, about 7.0% of the time you'll finish even, and the other 66.5% of the time you'll finish behind.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So does this answer the OP's original question? I'm not understanding this and nobody is discussing it. So 1/3 of the time you'll be even or ahead, and 2/3 of the time you'll finish behind after 100 bets? Am I getting that right? How does it change after 1,000 bets.

Let me double down on Wizard's admonition: EvenBob should restrict his discussion of roulette to the one (other) thread -and not engage in roulette discussions in this thread.

I am reversing the guidance I issued above. EvenBob is indeed allowed to ask questions about roulette and discuss roulette on this thread, as long as he doesn't engage in a discussion about his 'roulette method' on this thread. I am a little skeptical that he can refrain from espousing his ideas, but I am giving him enough rope and will see what he does with it.

Bob isn't supposed to be talking about roulette on this forum period. He made a deal with the mods and the forum. Mike should make him stick to his word.