Poll
6 votes (25%) | |||
9 votes (37.5%) | |||
9 votes (37.5%) |
24 members have voted
If you perfectly hedge the first question, you must put 12, 12, 13, and 13 bundles of cash on the four answers. So when the trap doors are opened, you are left with either 12 or 13 bundles of cash. But it is virtually impossible to get through 7 questions like that.
In the initial show, the young couple did not hedge at all for the first three questions, and were rewarded by only losing $120K (6 bundles) after 3 questions.
The 4th question was Which of the following three things was marketed first? The answer is the poll question.
The couple put $800K on one answer, and $80K and ZERO on the other two answers. Naturally they lost the $800K and the remainder $80K was completely lost by the 7th question giving them no winnings. It was heartbreaking since they were a very cute young couple.
If you've seen the TV show don't reveal the correct answer to the poll
As a secondary question, would you start seriously hedging on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th question? Given how difficult the last two questions are, I am assuming most sane people would begin a reasonable hedge on the last two questions, and no serious hedging can be done on the first two or you won't have enough money to make it through the game.
Final question, do you predict anyone will get through this game with $300K ?
Quote: pacomartin
If you perfectly hedge the first question, you must put 12, 12, 13, and 13 bundles of cash on the four answers. So when the trap doors are opened, you are left with either 12 or 13 bundles of cash. But it is virtually impossible to get through 7 questions like that.
In the UK version, The Million Pound Drop, you always have to leave one trap with no money on, so at least if you know its one of 2 you can split the money 50/50 until the last question, where you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right, which is the strategy myself and the wife use while playing along at home with the game thanks to Channel 4s use of the internet.
Quote: CroupierIn the UK version, The Million Pound Drop, you always have to leave one trap with no money on, so at least if you know its one of 2 you can split the money 50/50 until the last question, where you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right, which is the strategy myself and the wife use while playing along at home with the game thanks to Channel 4s use of the internet.
It sounds like the only possibility is either winning 20K GBP or Zero.
The other element is it is a real couple (man and woman) playing.
Quote: pacomartin
If you perfectly hedge the first question, you must put 12, 12, 13, and 13 bundles of cash on the four answers. So when the trap doors are opened, you are left with either 12 or 13 bundles of cash. But it is virtually impossible to get through 7 questions like that.
In the initial show, the young couple did not hedge at all for the first three questions, and were rewarded by only losing $120K (6 bundles) after 3 questions.
If you've seen the TV show don't reveal the correct answer to the poll
Final question, do you predict anyone will get through this game with $300K ?
Considering the hype this show was given, I was very underwhelmed with how the first episode played out.
First about hedging, you cannot hedge by placing bundles of cash on ALL doors - at least one door must be left empty.
I have issues with the fact that many of the questions are poll questions. For example, the question about "How many pairs of shoes does the average American woman own?" is just a stupid question. What or who is the "Average" American woman? Do they mean American women of average weight? Height? Income? Who audited the poll and how long ago was poll done? This kind of question has no real quantifiable answer and when $1,000,000 is at stake I think that there had better be some way to quantitatively prove the answer that is given.
I think that someone will win in excess of $500,000 sooner or later but the main issue I have with this format is that it is very anticlimactic toward the end. In Millionaire and Deal or no Deal, the player is building their prize as the game goes along and it grabs the audience (me anyway) as the prize grows bigger. In this show, after 6 questions they were playing for $20,000... were we really all that interested at that point? I was honestly hoping they'd lose the whole lot at the end, and they didn't disappoint.
Hype? I never heard of it.Quote: TheNightflyConsidering the hype this show was given, I was very underwhelmed with how the first episode played out.
And, I do not understand the concept, at least as it's been presented here.
A 10%
B 20%
C 30%
D 40%
Let's say there are 100 bundles of money, and you can't split a bundle up. I claim the optimal division is as follows:
A: 4
B: 18
C: 32
D: 46
How did I get that? Trial and error basically. Excel's "goal seek" feature is a invaluable for such problems. Anyone care to disagree with that distribution?
Of course, on the real show you're not going to be able to run those calculations. A good question for the forum is what would be a good basic strategy for the division of the money, assuming you're under time pressure, and don't have a calculator. Another question for the forum is to find an analytical solution to the above example.
By the way, I hope those who watched it could sympathize with my agony over the first question. It was, "Statistically, which is the most frequent total rolled in craps?" The choices were 4, 7, 10, and 12. The contestants put about 20% of their money on 7, and 80% on 10. I was almost pulling my hair out. However, then the host mentioned the option to change their minds, which they did invoke, and moved most of it to 7. They mentioned something about the number 7 being special in craps. I would have preferred to see a mathematical reason behind the switch, but alas, the average American's probability skills are abysmal.
For what it is worth, I would have gotten the Bayer Aspirin question right. However, in the interests of full disclosure, I thought the answer to the seafood question was salmon, but would have hedged by putting some of the money on shrimp.
The show is on at 9:00 tomorrow and Thursday as well.
Macintosh, Walkman or Post-Its?
Quote: DJTeddyBearOK. But which came first?
Macintosh, Walkman or Post-Its?
You should watch the show on hulu, it's episode #1. They deliberately torture the players by dropping the least likely answers first, and then leaving two answers, one with a lot of money and the second with less money. I have think if it is worthwhile to hedge on question #3.
By question #4 they reduce the potential answers from 4 to 3. At this point I think hedging becomes imperative since you are very unlikely to know the answer with certainty.
Hedging on the first two questions seem pointless as if you hedge a little you still won't get to question #7 with the hedged money. It just wastes money.
The story behind the post-it notes is told often in business classes. The goal of the 3M scientist was to create a powerful adhesive. At one point he created a very weak adhesive which turned into a huge moneymaker as post-it notes. The player knewHed the story, but he didn't know when it happened.
Quote: http://www.ideafinder.com/history/inventions/postit.htm
No one got the idea and then stayed up nights to invent it. A man named Spencer Silver was working in the 3M research laboratories in 1970 trying to find a strong adhesive. Silver developed a new adhesive, but it was even weaker than what 3M already manufactured. It stuck to objects, but could easily be lifted off. It was super weak instead of super strong.
No one knew what to do with the stuff, but Silver didn't discard it. Then one Sunday four years later, another 3M scientist named Arthur Fry was singing in the church's choir. He used markers to keep his place in the hymnal, but they kept falling out of the book. Remembering Silver's adhesive, Fry used some to coat his markers. Success! With the weak adhesive, the markers stayed in place, yet lifted off without damaging the pages. 3M began distributing Post-it ® Notes nationwide in 1980 -- ten years after Silver developed the super weak adhesive. Today they are one of the most popular office products available.
Quote: Walkman in wikipedia
Walkman is a Sony brand tradename originally used for portable audio cassette, and now used to market Sony's portable audio and video players as well as a line of Sony Ericsson mobile phones. The original Walkman introduced a change in music listening habits by allowing people to carry music with them and listen to music through lightweight headphones.The device was built in 1978 by audio-division engineer Nobutoshi Kihara for Sony co-chairman Akio Morita, who wanted to be able to listen to operas during his frequent trans-Pacific plane trips. The original Walkman was marketed in 1979 as the Walkman in Japan, the Soundabout in many other countries including the US, Freestyle in Sweden and the Stowaway in the UK.
Quote: Mackintosh 128 in wikipedia
The Macintosh 128K machine was the original Apple Macintosh personal computer. Its beige case contained a 9 in (23 cm) monitor and came with a keyboard and mouse. An indentation in the top of the case made it easier for the computer to be lifted and carried. It had a selling price of US$2,495. The Macintosh was introduced by the now famous US$1.5 million television commercial by Ridley Scott, "1984", that most notably aired on CBS during the third quarter of Super Bowl XVIII on January 22, 1984
You get the idea how difficult the game is. Unless you had very specific knowledge about these products you essentially had to make a guess. As an analytic tool you would essentially have to treat two of those answers as a random draw.
Quote: WizardI watched the show. It was pretty much as described, except there is a rule that you must eliminate at least one option by not putting any money on it. So my advice still stands, except to eliminate the worst answer, and then proceed with maximizing the expected log of the win.
By the way, I hope those who watched it could sympathize with my agony over the first question. It was, "Statistically, which is the most frequent total rolled in craps?" The choices were 4, 7, 10, and 12. The contestants put about 20% of their money on 7, and 80% on 10. I was almost pulling my hair out. However, then the host mentioned the option to change their minds, which they did invoke, and moved most of it to 7. They mentioned something about the number 7 being special in craps. I would have preferred to see a mathematical reason behind the switch, but alas, the average American's probability skills are abysmal.
For what it is worth, I would have gotten the Bayer Aspirin question right. However, in the interests of full disclosure, I thought the answer to the seafood question was salmon, but would have hedged by putting some of the money on shrimp.
The show is on at 9:00 tomorrow and Thursday as well.
The rule requiring that one drop have zero money on it only begins on question #5.
I would have gotten the Bayer Aspirin question correct also. There is also a setup quality to the question.
Quote: WizardBy the way, I hope those who watched it could sympathize with my agony over the first question. It was, "Statistically, which is the most frequent total rolled in craps?" The choices were 4, 7, 10, and 12. The contestants put about 20% of their money on 7, and 80% on 10. I was almost pulling my hair out. However, then the host mentioned the option to change their minds, which they did invoke, and moved most of it to 7. They mentioned something about the number 7 being special in craps. I would have preferred to see a mathematical reason behind the switch, but alas, the average American's probability skills are abysmal.
Anybody who didn't immediately put all of their money on "7" should have been led gently from the stage, given a glass of warm milk and some cookies, and later, been knocked unconscious and their internal organs harvested.
Quote: pacomartinThe rule requiring that one drop have zero money on it only begins on question #5.
Correction: On EVERY question, one drop must be left completely clear.
On the first three questions, there are 4 possible answers.
On the next three questions, there are 3 possible answers.
On the final question, there are 2 possible answers... meaning it's an all in question on one of those answers.
The only differences between the US version and the UK versions are:
The US uses :75 and :90 seconds on later questions, whereas :60 is across the board for all UK questions.
The UK does not offer a Quick Change (:30 additional seconds)
There is no clue on Q7 in the UK.
I believe that the UK uses stacks of 25,000 Pounds versus US using $20,000 stacks.
One other difference: The UK version is more tense, and the contestants don't chatter incessantly!
There has been controversy about the Post-It/Walkman question. It specifically asked "Which of these was sold in stores first", not "invented". Post-It's were invented and developed before the Walkman, but was sold in stores after the Walkman hit the shops.
I also didn't like Monday's 2nd episode, with the question: "According to the security firm Imperva, which of these is the most common password?" A) password B) 123456 c) iloveyou
The answer was B) 123456... however, not stated in the question was the fact that these passwords came from a SINGLE website: rockyou.com. In fact, "rockyou" was the 7th most common password. The question was inherently unfair, but was valid... I suppose.
I haven't seen the Tuesday episode yet, I have it on DVR. I'll probably be able to watch it in 20 minutes with my finger on the fast forward.
Quote: pacomartin
You get the idea how difficult the game is. Unless you had very specific knowledge about these products you essentially had to make a guess. As an analytic tool you would essentially have to treat two of those answers as a random draw.
I got this one right but mostly by knowing the Mac came out in 1984 and remembering Walkman's being around before that. I guessed on the Post-It notes but guessed right. However, I agree youy have to be a nerd to figure that stuff out. Still, a neat concept for a show, with real money in the players hands and they see it fall.
From dealing the MC Night Craps games I sympathize with Wiz on that craps question. It is no wonder slots have taken over so much....
Quote: mkl654321Anybody who didn't immediately put all of their money on "7" should have been led gently from the stage, given a glass of warm milk and some cookies, and later, been knocked unconscious and their internal organs harvested.
They did have a show recently where the contestant gets dropped off the edge of a building after losing. That show seemed better in concept than actual delivery though.
I like this one a bit better -- not sure why. Though I don't know if it will really catch on.
Quote: mkl654321Anybody who didn't immediately put all of their money on "7" should have been led gently from the stage, given a glass of warm milk and some cookies, and later, been knocked unconscious and their internal organs harvested.
Take it easy. The world needs ditch diggers too.
Quote: slytherAnother decent game show concept wasted. 60 minutes for a 7 question game. UUUGH.
I agree. Interesting concept, but too much chatter between questions. They are clearly going after the Millionaire/Deal or No Deal model of a more drawn out game. I predict I'll watch it several more times and then lose my patience with it, and return to Jeopardy and Cash Cab.
Quote: WizardI agree. Interesting concept, but too much chatter between questions. They are clearly going after the Millionaire/Deal or No Deal model of a more drawn out game. I predict I'll watch it several more times and then lose my patience with it, and return to Jeopardy and Cash Cab.
They waste a lot of time with opening a door on the answer that has no money riding on it and was clearly ruled out by the couple. The couple gets all excited, but then they realize that it is just another stalling tactic. The questions remind me of those trivia questions on airplane where they ask you if the movie came out in 1976, 1977, or 1978. Who cares?
They seem to derive plenty of thrill out of seeing if they can stress the relationship to divorce or permanent damage. Most game shows don't take away all your money, you usually have something to show for your time.
Cash Cab seems like a throwback to the original game shows, where a reasonably intelligent person stands a chance at difficult questions. I have only seen one person lose the double or nothing video question at the end. The questions seem relatively easy compared to the earlier questions, so I would recommend going for it.
The show is drawing over 5 million viewers. It looks like a pretty cheap show to produce, and they aren't giving away much money in prizes.
I read that the British version had a controversial answer about Dr. Who. The result was that they let the couple return and finish the game from that question on.
Quote: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1340815/Couple-lose-800-000-despite-giving-right-answer-Million-Dollar-Drop-quiz-gaffe.html
'Apparently Post-It Notes didn't go on sale nationally until 1980, but were market tested in four cities starting in 1977.
'So that means they beat the Walkman, which debuted in 1979.
'The question was not posed as "sold in stores nationally," it was simply "sold in stores."
It would be nice to let them return to the game with their $800K and let them try the last three questions again.
Quote: dwheatleyI wonder what kind of legal grounds the couple has. Game shows should be help to some kind of factual accuracy, or else they could just screw with their contestants occasionally. I know they couldn't get away with it often, but...
I'm sure the contestants sign a contract waiving their right to sue for any reason whatsoever. However, if there is sufficient pressure, the producers would probably do the right thing voluntarily and let them play again. On Jeopardy once in a while they invite a contestant back because they realize they blew it on a call the first time.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI get the same way while watching Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader. I swear they find the most moronic people to go on these shows as these questions are incredibly easy. I about wanted to taser the guy through the tv on the craps question and also tell him to ditch the GF as she was as annoying as one could get.
The producers try and find people who make you react just the way you're reacting. They want you to squirm and yell at the TV, that way you'll keep watching. What fun is it watching some Brainiac showing off, we love watching people who are stupider than we are.
Quote: EvenBobThe producers try and find people who make you react just the way you're reacting. They want you to squirm and yell at the TV, that way you'll keep watching. What fun is it watching some Brainiac showing off, we love watching people who are stupider than we are.
I agree. The show would be no fun if the answer to the title question was "damn right! And that's the way it's supposed to be..."
Empire Strikes Back
Return of the Jedi
Phantom Menace
Attack of the Clones
the couple lost $0.5 million by splitting their million exactly in two piles (2nd question).
Quote: WizardI'm sure the contestants sign a contract waiving their right to sue for any reason whatsoever. However, if there is sufficient pressure, the producers would probably do the right thing voluntarily and let them play again. On Jeopardy once in a while they invite a contestant back because they realize they blew it on a call the first time.
I've seen the same thing done on several other game shows, including "Password" and "The Price is Right". It's a good way to sidestep liability issues (and we know that those liability waivers can be gotten around), and be fair at the same time.
Re Jeopardy: I wonder if the 100+ contestants who found themselves matched against Ken Jennings would have had a legitimate beef that they had no chance, being essentially cannon fodder? Probably not (darn), but I would feel kind of aggrieved to go through the entire contestant qualification process only to find myself on the wrong side of Bambi vs. Godzilla.
Quote: pacomartinEpisode #7 . There were four titles of Star Wars movies and the question was which film premiered most recently.
Empire Strikes Back
Return of the Jedi
Phantom Menace
Attack of the Clones
the couple lost $0.5 million by splitting their million exactly in two piles (2nd question).
Did they at least split their $$ on the two newest movies?
Yes, the husband was confident that the answer was one of the two new films, but didn't seem to have any leaning between the two (as the money split would suggest).Quote: rdw4potusDid they at least split their $$ on the two newest movies?
More interesting maybe - a question from later in the same show was "what do Americans spend more on in a year: casino gambling, movie tickets, or video games." Watching at home I knew immediately movie tickets wasn't correct (the couple lost about 75% of their remaining stake on that option) but wasn't sure past that. I was confident if chip buyins counted as money spent on gambling that that choice would represent the most spent by an order of magnitude. If only the hold counted then I wasn't sure (and I think that issue makes this another poorly designed question).
Game theory question - with the "split money on two out of three choices, only the one correct choice passes the money on" rules, if I was 95% confident that video games had more spending that movie tickets, and 60% confident casino gambling had more spending than video games, how should I split my money? Is it as simple as 60/40 biased towards gambling, or does the fact that I'm very confident video games are at least not last in spending make any difference. Note: I'm trying to maximize return, and not hedge.
Quote: sunrise089
More interesting maybe - a question from later in the same show was "what do Americans spend more on in a year: casino gambling, movie tickets, or video games."
Oohhhh! I started watching right at this point. Felt bad for the wife when she said "The average person goes to the movies 6 times per year. It's about $8-$10/ticket. So that's $50...but that's the same as one video game." as her hubby was piling money on movies. that should have immediately disqualified the movie answer from contention.
I knew about casino games being higher than movies or video games; I knew the order of the Star Wars movies; and I knew the other questions.
The final question about the fish sandwich and the Egg McMuffin I did not know immediately, but when they gave the clue that fish sandwiches debuted in 1962, I would have known they came first. McDonald's was not open for breakfast for many years.
Quote: pacomartinYou get the idea how difficult the game is. Unless you had very specific knowledge about these products you essentially had to make a guess. As an analytic tool you would essentially have to treat two of those answers as a random draw.
idk, it kinda seems obvious that post-it notes came first, walkmans seconds, apples third. Unless this was a trick question, but seems like it wasn't. It's an easy guess, and I'm actually even surprised that the most obvious answer here is the right one.
Quote: P90idk, it kinda seems obvious that post-it notes came first, walkmans seconds, apples third. Unless this was a trick question, but seems like it wasn't. It's an easy guess, and I'm actually even surprised that the most obvious answer here is the right one.
That was the players guess, but he lost $800K. Post It notes were released nationally in 1980, but they were test marketed in 1977. The Walkman was released in 1979. So the obvious answer was incorrect in the show, but they indicated that the couple will be invited back.
The justification for the fleecing that is a state lottery, is that the revenue ultimately goes for something of social value.
You have a total of 23 answers and you must leave 7 blank. You have 50 bundles of bills in the American game, (and 40 in the British game).
The problem seems to be one of simple greed. There is not enough bundles to completely hedge all bets, but you could try and win $60K with a modest hedge plan. Out of 12 players only two have earned more than $60K (winnings were $80K and $240K).
$1000K (leave 3 blank)
$1000K(leave 3 blank)
$480K $480K $40K(leave mandatory 1 blank & A LONG SHOT)
$240K $240K(leave mandatory 1 blank)
$120K $120K(leave mandatory 1 blank)
$60K $60K(leave mandatory 1 blank)
$60K (leave mandatory 1 blank)
Quote: AZDuffmanTwo woman just lost it all based on popularity of baby names. If Wiz is reading this he can watch it on the replay in 2 hours or so. Right up his alley!
I did indeed just watch it west coast time. Thanks for the heads up, but watched it anyway.
Yup, that was one I knew for sure. For the benefit of others, the question was:
What was the most popular name for boys born in 2009:
1. Michael
2. Jacob
3. Ethan
I won't say the answer yet, in case anybody wants to weigh in. However, I was proud to see the question. If I may toot my own horn again, I was the one to first publish baby name popularity lists on a nationwide basis.
I may know baby names, but I'm not as strong as I thought on popular music. On the question about the longest song I would have put everything or almost everything on Bohemian Rhapsody.
Quote: Wizard
I may know baby names, but I'm not as strong as I thought on popular music. On the question about the longest song I would have put everything or almost everything on Bohemian Rhapsody.
Just out of curiosity, what was the music question? I wnat to see if I am as good as I think I am.
Quote: WizardI did indeed just watch it west coast time. Thanks for the heads up, but watched it anyway.
Yup, that was one I knew for sure. For the benefit of others, the question was:
What was the most popular name for boys born in 2009:
1. Michael
2. Jacob
3. Ethan
I won't say the answer yet, in case anybody wants to weigh in. However, I was proud to see the question. If I may toot my own horn again, I was the one to first publish baby name popularity lists on a nationwide basis.
I may know baby names, but I'm not as strong as I thought on popular music. On the question about the longest song I would have put everything or almost everything on Bohemian Rhapsody.
I assume you still seek out the story from the SS Administration, what with it being your baby and all. (Pun sort of intended.) I won't spill the answer either, but I was suprised at the right answer. Lets say ethnicity made me think it was too narrow a name to pick. Although I was less surised when those two put all their money on the two wrong answers. It was right out of the scene in "Let it Ride" where the guy got the right horse to bet on by asking what looked to be the most misinformed people what the winner was, then crossing that off his list until one horse remained, which won.
The two playing seemed the type who could give you every contestant on "American Idol" but would say "Joseph Wapner" if they had to name a Supreme Court Justice.
Quote: CroupierJust out of curiosity, what was the music question? I wnat to see if I am as good as I think I am.
Which is the longest song of these three songs, according to the original release:
1. American Pie
2. Rambling Man
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
Quote: WizardWhich is the longest song of these three songs, according to the original release:
I don't know the second one, but American Pie's pretty long.
Quote: WizardWhich is the longest song of these three songs, according to the original release:
1. American Pie
2. Rambling Man
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
It's important to phrase the question correctly: In terms of minutes, which of these songs is longest on it's original album release?
This question was one of the rare ones in the game where the there obligatory empty hopper was the correct answer. The contestants usually are able to correctly rule out one answer completely, but they often don't want to hedge and lose their money before the final question.
Quote: pacomartinIt's important to phrase the question correctly: In terms of minutes, which of these songs is longest on it's original album release?
This question was one of the rare ones in the game where the there obligatory empty hopper was the correct answer. The contestants usually are able to correctly rule out one answer completely, but they often don't want to hedge and lose their money before the final question.
That was also the situation with the baby name question. In both cases the players seems to lean towards one answer (a wrong one) and hedged randomly on one of the other two.
To answer the question, the answer was American Pie. On the show the contestants split up the money about 80% on Bohemian Rhapsody, and 20% on Rambling Man.
I flew the Los Angeles to Tokyo flight, and I flew the Los Angeles to London flight, and I remembered that the flight distance was nearly identical. With this knowledge I could correctly rank the LAX to Tokyo, LAX to Rome, and LAX to Singapore flight distances. But without this knowledge it would be nearly impossible to rank these flight distances.
You have to hedge your bets. Nobody has that kind of knowledge for multiple questions. I noticed that there have been no one who won more than three bundles of money in the British version (they have only 40 bundles of money, instead of 50 bundles in the American version). People are deluding themselves into thinking that they can guess there way to the end with lots of money.
Quote: Wizard
To answer the question, the answer was American Pie. On the show the contestants split up the money about 80% on Bohemian Rhapsody, and 20% on Rambling Man.
Damn. Id have known that one. Ramblin Man (if its the Allman Brothers) is around 5 minutes long, Bohemian Rhapsody is around 6 minutes and the full American Pie is over 8 minutes if I recall.
Quote: CroupierDamn. Id have known that one. Ramblin Man (if its the Allman Brothers) is around 5 minutes long, Bohemian Rhapsody is around 6 minutes and the full American Pie is over 8 minutes if I recall.
Almost perfect answer 4:58 , 5:55 and 8:33.
But no one could know that much about song lengths, product release dates, flight lengths and celebrity gossip. But one or two known answers, combined with a few easier questions at the beginning, and you could do ok,
Quote: pacomartinAlmost perfect answer 4:58 , 5:55 and 8:33.
But no one could know that much about song lengths, product release dates, flight lengths and celebrity gossip. But one or two known answers, combined with a few easier questions at the beginning, and you could do ok,
Nope, you are quite correct. Id have to get very lucky with categories. I only know the music ones because music is a passion of mine, they are songs in the styles I like, I can play American Pie on guitar, and the other songs have been on Rock Band and Guitar Hero. Much more luck than knowledge.