Lottery Mystery: Black Swan Capital

Four Princeton grads (Matthew Gibbons, Hannah Davinroy, Zoe Buonaiuto and the apparent ringleader, Manuel Montori) won more than $6 million from lotteries in Indiana, Missouri, Washington and the District of Columbia.

How did they do it and was how they did it illegal?

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/investigations/2020/11/11/group-recent-princeton-grads-winning-lotteries-across-u-s/6146979002/

I'm wondering why the lotteries have said they are not concerned in light of the fact that the possibility exists these people might have known beforehand where the winning scratch-offs were (the prosecution of William C. Foreman regarding the Hoosier Lottery should ring a bell).

Quote: FTB

Four Princeton grads (Matthew Gibbons, Hannah Davinroy, Zoe Buonaiuto and the apparent ringleader, Manuel Montori) won more than $6 million from lotteries in Indiana, Missouri, Washington and the District of Columbia.

How did they do it and was how they did it illegal?

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/investigations/2020/11/11/group-recent-princeton-grads-winning-lotteries-across-u-s/6146979002/

I'm wondering why the lotteries have said they are not concerned in light of the fact that the possibility exists these people might have known beforehand where the winning scratch-offs were (the prosecution of William C. Foreman regarding the Hoosier Lottery should ring a bell).

There was a Phd in statistics from Las Vegas that was very successful many years ago doing the same thing. The fact that the websites show how many big tickets are left can definitely give you a mathematical advantage.

Quote: DRich

There was a Phd in statistics from Las Vegas that was very successful many years ago doing the same thing. The fact that the websites show how many big tickets are left can definitely give you a mathematical advantage.

but how would you know WHERE that last remaining $1M scratch off is located?
or even in the general area? (ie: nw corner of the state)

Quote: 100xOdds

but how would you know WHERE that last remaining $1M scratch off is located?
or even in the general area? (ie: nw corner of the state)

You would have to try to deduce that. It is believed by some that the bigger tickets tend to get spread out geographically so if a big ticket hit in a certain area it is probably less like that another one would be in that area. Read the articles about Joan Ginther. This is one but there are lots out there. https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-stanford-phd-reportedly-figured-out-texas-lottery-won-20-million-playing-over-over-for-years.html

Yet articles on Joan Ginther never explained how she did it exactly.

If only a bunch of smart math minds was involved and nothing nefarious is going on, wouldn't someone have figured this out before them and/or a definitive explaination by other math minds be public knowledge by now for how it was done and apparently done more than once?

Quote: FTB

Yet articles on Joan Ginther never explained how she did it exactly.

If only a bunch of smart math minds was involved and nothing nefarious is going on, wouldn't someone have figured this out before them and/or a definitive explaination by other math minds be public knowledge by now for how it was done and apparently done more than once?

I think you are forgetting that the lotteries didn't make the information available in the past. Everytime a new piece of information is presented, it gives us more clues on how it works.

I don't see anything illegal at this point with this particular situation

Years ago I read of a guy who discovered certain lottery games had a quasi code which allowed him to discern which tickets were winners and which were losers before playing them.

I believe he worked out deals with several ticket selling stores. They allowed him to go through all the tickets without purchase for an upfront fee. He would remove the winners, leaving the losers to be sold to the rest of the customers so no one making a purchase had even a chance of winning.

The stores made the same sales (the winners to him, the losers to everyone else), plus they made extra off his payment to go through the tickets

Not every"winner" was profit. He could only tell it was a redeem ticket not for how much. So he might buy a $5 and win $3.

But in this manner he made a profit, never buying tickets to be thrown out

I was thinking along these lines. What if they figured out a method to confirm, without actually scratching off the latex, which scratch-offs are winners prior to purchasing them?

Then again, they are "Black Swan Capital" (emphasis on black swan) for a reason. Perhaps there is a perfectly legal way they are going about this. Are they arrogant enough to pose with the ceremonial checks if they are winning large payouts across four states illegally?

Supposedly they will reveal their secret one day in a YouTube video but most likely do an interview here and there as well.

Quote: FTB

I was thinking along these lines. What if they figured out a method to confirm, without actually scratching off the latex, which scratch-offs are winners prior to purchasing them?

Then again, they are "Black Swan Capital" (emphasis on black swan) for a reason. Perhaps there is a perfectly legal way they are going about this. Are they arrogant enough to pose with the ceremonial checks if they are winning large payouts across four states illegally?

Supposedly they will reveal their secret one day in a YouTube video but most likely do an interview here and there as well.

Although I doubt this would work to the point of being +EV, you could 100% pick out higher value scratchies for some of these bingo games without scratching, assuming free spaces are randomly distributed.

They have not yet revealed exactly how they did it nor done an interview as they suggested they would (an online search has not revealed any updates, at least).

I am interested in knowing if and when a Dateline-like program airs or maybe a Wired article is in the works regarding these people.

All AP things about the lottery, are fine, because the lottery makes money and the public plays any way. These number drawings are all computerized, there are no balls to be drawn, it's a show. If people are winning, it is because either they have figured out the randomness or the payout exceeds the odds. We know from experience, the second case is rarely true because many jackpots get split if ticket sales erupt. The lotteries has proven themselves to be corrupt, all calculations and odds of winning big money are worse in reality than the theoreticals. Whenever a lot of money is at stake, it's not just the lotteries which get tilted, probably happens almost everywhere.

Edit: These are scratch offs. Doesn't matter. The credibility of the lottery is unquestioned even when the fairness is questioned. They will not reinvent the wheel until this gaming of the system results in people not feeding the coffers in protest. Hasn't happened yet, even when people are informed, they still play and lotteries will not change out of guilt. Nobody can really force them in a cost effective basis. Guess you could buy the governor's seat, but then the PTB gets their money and fixing these things costs them their loot.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

All AP things about the lottery, are fine, because the lottery makes money and the public plays any way. These number drawings are all computerized, there are no balls to be drawn, it's a show. If people are winning, it is because either they have figured out the randomness or the payout exceeds the odds. We know from experience, the second case is rarely true because many jackpots get split if ticket sales erupt. The lotteries has proven themselves to be corrupt, all calculations and odds of winning big money are worse in reality than the theoreticals. Whenever a lot of money is at stake, it's not just the lotteries which get tilted, probably happens almost everywhere.

Edit: These are scratch offs. Doesn't matter. The credibility of the lottery is unquestioned even when the fairness is questioned. They will not reinvent the wheel until this gaming of the system results in people not feeding the coffers in protest. Hasn't happened yet, even when people are informed, they still play and lotteries will not change out of guilt. Nobody can really force them in a cost effective basis. Guess you could buy the governor's seat, but then the PTB gets their money and fixing these things costs them their loot.

You hit the nail on the head. Why would the lottery commissions care if some of their games are compromised if the lottery will continue to bring in the money regardless of how fair the games really are?

It would seem naive to assume all scratch off tickets created by outside vendors are invulnerable to some type of “cheating”; the lottery commissions know this.

The vetting, publication of the names of winners, etc. is all just a song and dance by the lottery commissions for the gullible masses to believe there is only luck involved whenever someone wins.

Disappointed to read no new real insight into this despite claiming a YouTube video would be released at one point explaining how it was done:

ttps://www.the-sun.com/money/6160968/lottery-winning-strategy-ivy-league-princeton/

In fact, the article mentions the possibility the group suffered a massive loss while executing their plan.

One lottery author suggests this strategy for winning lotteries:

Avoid low numbers (such as 1 to 9? , or just 1 to 3?)
Don't use consecutive numbers.

Anyone want to take a crack at estimating how much that reduces the number of possible combinations?

Also, I wonder if there is a website where people record winning sequences, so they can be mined/analyzed?

Quote: gordonm888

One lottery author suggests this strategy for winning lotteries:

Avoid low numbers (such as 1 to 9? , or just 1 to 3?)
Don't use consecutive numbers.

Anyone want to take a crack at estimating how much that reduces the number of possible combinations?

The consecutive numbers thing is certainly bunk, but the avoiding low numbers advice may have some merit in reducing the chance of splitting the jackpot. Assuming that people tend to play numbers that involve important dates (birthdays, anniversaries, etc.), if you avoid 1 through 31, you are more likely to be the sole winner, if your numbers come in. It certainly doesn't increase your chances of winning, but it does (in theory) increase your expected return if you do win.

Quote:

Also, I wonder if there is a website where people record winning sequences, so they can be mined/analyzed?
link to original post

When Florida first started the lottery, I kept track of the winning numbers. I even wrote a program that would select numbers based on previous results. It selected the numbers randomly, but the numbers were weighted based on how often they had come in. You had two options: The "hot numbers" option weighted the numbers that came in more often more heavily, and the "numbers are due" option that weighted the numbers that came in less often more heavily.

I did this for about 6 months worth of drawings, and concluded that the 6 numbers generated by the program had the same chance of coming in as any other 6 numbers.

Quote: FTB

Disappointed to read no new real insight into this despite claiming a YouTube video would be released at one point explaining how it was done:

ttps://www.the-sun.com/money/6160968/lottery-winning-strategy-ivy-league-princeton/

In fact, the article mentions the possibility the group suffered a massive loss while executing their plan.
link to original post

But then, there's this from an older article I missed at the time: according to one reporter, he theorized "...the group could write the gambling losses off through their taxes as an expense of doing business through purchasing tickets."