Can you explain this race?

Shutter shock 6/1 morning line was 50/1 early betting, wound up being 26/1 and wins the race. I was betting on Charlees Finest, Hard to Stop. Seemed it was a good bet a 6/1 morning line having such high odds, but I balked. Hard to stop was 4/5, was this all it took to raise the odds so high on Shutter Shock. I'd think there would have to be more to scare people off this horse so much.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TDN050317USA8.pdf

Many times there is not much bet until the last 3 minutes before race starts. That is when big money often comes in. Sometimes a horse gets ignored and his odds rise quickly and the opposite for a horse that gets bet heavy near post time.

what vegas said is true but it mostly applies to small tracks such as thistledown where this happened. it usually doesn't happen at the very big tracks. these big tracks often have more than 100K in the win pool. it would take a monster bet for something like that to happen late. the race you bet the win, place, show pool was 33K. the win pool was probably only around 18k. some tracks are even much smaller than this. crazy stuff can happen with the odds there.

It's not so much why have the odds dropped, but more why have they sailed so much. I guess just big bets on Hard to Stop and Shutter Shock being ignored was it. I think I saw actually $52.80 for $1 bet on the #9 about 7-10 minutes before the race, so if memory serves, that's 104/1 in early betting for a 6/1 morning line odds. Do Thistledown's morning lines suck that badly or was the horse showing a negative angle.

the morning line is often way off from the final odds and the smaller the track the more off it often will be. the final odds are a much more accurate representation of the approximate probabilities, when factoring out the track takeout, then is the morning line.

Nice race, the Singletary stakes, horse #8 Bowie's Hero, almost falls over at the start, but comes back to win the race.
Santa Anita race 10 today. The announcers didn't think #7 Sharp Samurai was worthy of such low odds, thought someone cashed out big at the derby and was betting large. These races tempt me the most. 0 mtp, 7 was 4/5, 3/2 during race start, 8 was 11/1 pre, 7/1 during the race. Is this the computers doubling down the betting algorithms and the little guys are guaranteed to fail? Nice race

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Is this the computers doubling down the betting algorithms and the little guys are guaranteed to fail? Nice race

i'm not sure if you're aware of how difficult it is to beat racing because of the huge takeout; between 15 and 28% depending on the track and type of bet. to contrast, a typical sports bet against the spread features a takeout of 4.55%. bettors of low priced favorites get screwed more than others because of breakage; if the tote figures a win payout on a favorite to be $3.99 at most tracks it will round it down to $3.80 taking away another 10% of the profit. breakage doesn't hurt the player of shots and mid priced horses nearly as much when considered on a percentage basis. breakage doesn't hurt the player of exotics as much but that is where they up the juice. only the very best beat racing in the long run. it's very hard to do that.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Is this the computers doubling down the betting algorithms and the little guys are guaranteed to fail? Nice race

i'm not sure if you're aware of how difficult it is to beat racing because of the huge takeout; between 15 and 28% depending on the track and type of bet. to contrast, a typical sports bet against the spread features a takeout of 4.55%. bettors of low priced favorites get screwed more than others because of breakage; if the tote figures a win payout on a favorite to be $3.99 at most tracks it will round it down to $3.80 taking away another 10% of the profit. breakage doesn't hurt the player of shots and mid priced horses nearly as much when considered on a percentage basis. breakage doesn't hurt the player of exotics as much but that is where they up the juice. only the very best beat racing in the long run. it's very hard to do that.

Oh yeah I am just was raging and ranting last night. I dont like the idea certain players get such consideration and are in the same pools as everyone else pecking away in an analog world when the others are in a digital world. Makes the true hold much higher than the stated rates. There should be maximum bets per account/person acrossed all wagering, so their value isn't worth the investment.