Video Keno Scouting Guide
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21 members have voted
Previously once could have run through every single game and pay table through one of my keno calculators, and I don't have them for every keno game. However, the number of people who have likely done that is in the single digits.
Which brings me to my idea. Have a simple document that lists every known game and set of pay tables with the return for each. By the time I'm done with it, it may be several pages. For now I just did three common games -- standard keno, caveman, and Cleopatra. I only know of three or four sets of pay tables for each, but can get more through my scouting. That said, please check out my new Video Keno Scouting Guide.
The question for the poll is do you think this will be a useful document for my video keno players at my Odds site?
So while it is still pretty unlikely you'll ever find me at a keno game, I might just take a few notes on the not-too-terrible machines just in case I want to give it a try.
Quote: RSI think it could be useful. Or maybe just write a caveman keno analyzer as well as other games (Cleo, extra draw, explosion with bombs keno, etc.). Although extra draw might be a little tough for an analyzer. But in the results to include frequency and payback for all hits and stuff (ie: so I'm not on a 101% game where 70% of payback is in the 10/10+ 3 eggs).
I already have a Caveman keno analyzer.
Also, I'm not sure that this advice will save anybody any money in the long run. Enable them to play longer before they go broke, perhaps. As far as I'm aware, the best video keno pays about 92%, so the only cogent advice would be "don't play it."
Quote: WizardI already have a Caveman keno analyzer.
Doesn't show the frequency of certain hits+eggs things hitting, though. :(
I'd like to see if it showed something like the following for a 4-spot game for example
HITS EGGS RETURN
0 0 X%
0 1 X%
0 2 X%
0 3 X%
1 0 X%
1 1 X%
1 2 X%
1 3 X%
2 0 X%
2 1 X%
2 2 X%
2 3 X%
3 0 X%
3 1 X%
3 2 X%
3 3 X%
4 0 X%
4 1 X%
4 2 X%
4 3 X%
Perhaps I'm going crazy, but I swear I've seen different paytables where 2 and 3 eggs paid differently (than other paytables...ie: not always 4x and 8x respectively).
And the same thing for other games, like Cleopatria keno, etc. Sort of like JB's(?) Video Poker analyzer (esp. if you look at something like STP, DSTP, UX, etc.).
And you would be wrong.Quote: JoeshlabotnikAs far as I'm aware, the best video keno pays about 92%, so the only cogent advice would be "don't play it."
Quote: vegasYes we know someone who makes a living playing progressive keno
cough cough Mickey cough
Quote: AxelWolfAnd you would be wrong.
Well, yeah, Axel, I know about progressives, and the Mickey Crimm School of AP'ing, and the rest. But what the Wiz was talking about wasn't a guide to how to find +EV keno progressives.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikAs far as I'm aware, the best video keno pays about 92%, so the only cogent advice would be "don't play it."
There are definitely Keno games paying more than 92% out there.
Not progessives just good old flat top keno in regular NV casino's that are over 92%, yes they are kinda rare, but isn't that the point, knowing that information? If you are going to play keno I guess you should probably play something with a better payback. I don't know if having a better percentage really helps that many people or if it just allows them to play longer. If someone is going to just play for a set period of time then obviously they should play a higher percentage payback.Quote: JoeshlabotnikWell, yeah, Axel, I know about progressives, and the Mickey Crimm School of AP'ing, and the rest. But what the Wiz was talking about wasn't a guide to how to find +EV keno progressives.
Personally I would rather there NOT be a list of good places to play keno.
Quote: DRichThere are definitely Keno games paying more than 92% out there.
Agreed. You can see in my scouting guide the liberal pay tables for regular keno gets as high as 94.99%. This isn't just some theoretical set of pay tables that nobody chooses but I've seen it out there recently.
I also calculated one more (3 or 4 spots) when I was there, and it was about 96% also.
Quote: AxelWolfNot progessives just good old flat top keno in regular NV casino's that are over 92%, yes they are kinda rare, but isn't that the point, knowing that information? If you are going to play keno I guess you should probably play something with a better payback. I don't know if having a better percentage really helps that many people or if it just allows them to play longer. If someone is going to just play for a set period of time then obviously they should play a higher percentage payback.
Personally I would rather there NOT be a list of good places to play keno.
I guess the point I was trying (not very well) to make was that if you're playing video keno in the first place, you probably don't care about the house edge; if you cared, you wouldn't be playing the game at all. I agree that 95% is better than 92% or 89% or whatever, but it's still a money sink.
I think you and I are in agreement that for this sort of game and player, the effect of a lower HE is not to lessen losses--people will just play until the money's gone--but to lengthen playing sessions. So if somebody gets an hour and a quarter rather than an hour out of their $100 bill, I guess that is a qualitative improvement.
I know I'm dreaming.
I thought more casinos they built it would create more competition and better paybacks and promotions unfortunately it seems that the casinos just rape the players even more to make up for any lost customers.
Generally It seems like the worst casinos are doing the less they give away on promotions. When casino are doing well they tend to offer better promotions.
I'm wondering if the young people realize how little value they get for their money when gambling and that's the real reason they are not that interested in gambling? Someone should try making it easier to get Free Room, food and shows with much better odds and see how that goes. I thought SLS should've tried this.
You're not the only one. They genie isn't going back into the bottle. Maybe some day a company might try a WalMart approach, but at this time, people tend to view those casinos as desperate and trashy. It's quite a complex history from the days casinos were states away and when Gary Loveman had his screw them eureka moment.Quote: AxelWolfIt's a long shot ,but if somehow a list helps a casino that offers "good" keno steal more customers who already play keno from other bad keno locations, perhaps more casinos will follow their lead and install better keno themselves. Perhaps someone might try something different and apply that to VP and slots and start a trend.
I know I'm dreaming.
I thought more casinos they built it would create more competition and better paybacks and promotions unfortunately it seems that the casinos just rape the players even more to make up for any lost customers.
Generally It seems like the worst casinos are doing the less they give away on promotions. When casino are doing well they tend to offer better promotions.
I'm wondering if the young people realize how little value they get for their money when gambling and that's the real reason they are not that interested in gambling? Someone should try making it easier to get Free Room, food and shows with much better odds and see how that goes. I thought SLS should've tried this.
It's going to get worse I'm seeing now, by witnessing what Eldorado is seeming to try. Tight slots, drastically less free play, and less promotions.
Quote: AxelWolf
I thought more casinos they built it would create more competition and better paybacks and promotions unfortunately it seems that the casinos just rape the players even more to make up for any lost customers.
Unfortunately, in Vegas at least, this has been tried in many places and failed miserably. The reason? You make your games liberal and give generous player rewards and suddenly, you get swamped by all the bottom-feeders. Now, you're the only place in town that's giving away the store, and the other joints still have happy crowds of ploppies giving their money away, while you're letting Spike and Mo bleed you for $20 an hour--more than they usually make in a day, fishing matchplay coupons out of dumpsters.
I can think of dozens of Vegas casinos that "went liberal" for a brief time, only to hastily pull the plug after, sometimes, only a single day had elapsed. The M, South Point, Rampart, Plaza, Tuscany...the list goes on and on. The worst part is that they usually reset to a point that was worse than before they tried the liberal experiment.
As far as comps go, competition has to help. I get periods where I am over-comped at the same time my player's card ranking is stuck firmly in the lowest strata.
If you see any set of pay tables not listed, please post or send me a picture of the pay table screen. Thank you.
I now have two PDF keno documents.
What I wrote about earlier in this thread I am changing names to my full pay table report, until I think of a better name. What is up now is a new and improved version with many more pay tables.
For those looking for something smaller and simpler, I created what I now call my keno scouting guide. This has only the pay tables for picking 10 numbers and for each the number you should pick and the resulting expected return.
If you ever play video keno, I think one of these documents should be in your pocket whenever you play. You will be throwing money away otherwise. I would be like playing video poker without knowing the return for any given game and pay table.
I do have a request. If you find any pay tables not in either report, please take a picture of it and send it to me. A free beer for any person who finds a pay table for one of the games included that isn't in the report. Pay table must be found on a Game King machine.
Thank you.
$5 investment turned to nothing. Back to VP. Hours later, I decided to use $5 of free play at keno. I got one 4 spot hit -- $25! Yippee!
Quote: WizardI have added lots more pay tables to my Keno Scouting Guide.
If you see any set of pay tables not listed, please post or send me a picture of the pay table screen. Thank you.
When is your new Keno book planned for release?
Quote: DRichWasn't Triple Diamond keno the one with the bug in it where you could play for free? If I remember right that was more than 10 years ago.
Now you tell us!
For a "bargain", I often find the 95% 2-spot on Caveman, even in otherwise stingy casinos.
As for the keno players, they're a different breed from video poker players, vastly different. Almost 100% completely clueless as to the meaning of "paytable", and if you bring up the subject of percent return or the benefit of choosing one machine over another, you are often met with, "Oh, but I'm lucky on this one". They just don't believe in math.
Thanks Wizard.
Highest one I've played has been 94.22%
1. So the pay table settings for each type of game are always fixed for fewer than 10 spots? Example- looking at Spot Keno PT2 which is 90.19% for playing a 2 spot, that can't be lowered by the casino?
2. Looking at Caveman Keno-8X PT 5, you say to play a 1 spot to get a 95.05% return correct? I don't think I have ever seen a keno game that pays for a one spot, can you explain?
Quote: DRichWasn't Triple Diamond keno the one with the bug in it where you could play for free? If I remember right that was more than 10 years ago.
I never heard that. Triple Diamond is still easily found on older machines.
Quote: gamerfreakWhen is your new Keno book planned for release?
It is in the "let's do it" stage with Huntington Press, a stage that can last for months or years. A problem is there isn't enough material to make a book and too much for a strategy card.
Quote: Johnzimbo1. So the pay table settings for each type of game are always fixed for fewer than 10 spots? Example- looking at Spot Keno PT2 which is 90.19% for playing a 2 spot, that can't be lowered by the casino?
They could lower it to Pay Table 1, which pays at most 86.43% for a pick-10.
Or perhaps I'm not understanding your question. What you see is just the pick-10 pay table. There will be different pay tables for fewer picks but each pick-10 pay table. What I'm trying to say is the whole set of pay tables is the same. The slot manager just chooses a whole set of pay tables, which tend to be set to a consistent return.
Quote:2. Looking at Caveman Keno-8X PT 5, you say to play a 1 spot to get a 95.05% return correct? I don't think I have ever seen a keno game that pays for a one spot, can you explain?
Good catch. That should say the maximum return is for a pick 2.
Quote: WizardI never heard that. Triple Diamond is still easily found on older machines.
Here is an old thread about it.
http://newlifegames.net/nlg/index.php?action=printpage;topic=1494.0
Even at the BEST paytable setting, isn't this one of the House's highest advantages ?
Quote: WizardWhat I'm trying to say is the whole set of pay tables is the same. The slot manager just chooses a whole set of pay tables, which tend to be set to a consistent return.
Yes, that is what I was asking, thanks!
Quote: ThatDonGuyI have a phone app for a keno analyzer in some stage of development. The main reason I don't finish it is, if you're playing online, you can use the Wizard's calculator web page, and if you're at a casino, then either you run the risk of getting caught using it at a machine (and in Nevada, they may treat it the same as something that calculates VP plays or even counts cards - the second offense is a mandatory minimum one year in the slam), or you have to copy all of the numbers down and take them somewhere where you can use the app legally.
I've never once heard of a player getting in trouble for using an app to play video poker. I've pulled out the Video Poker Wizard several times for tricky hands and never had a problem. While what you say may be true, in theory, I don't think any casino is going to press charges on it.
Quote: WizardI've never once heard of a player getting in trouble for using an app to play video poker. I've pulled out the Video Poker Wizard several times for tricky hands and never had a problem. While what you say may be true, in theory, I don't think any casino is going to press charges on it.
I agree. If one of our employees asked me about it I would just tell them to inform the customer that they can't use it while at the machine. If they continued they would be asked to leave.
Even at KENO ? C'mon !Quote: DRichIf one of our employees asked me about it I would just tell them to inform the customer that they can't use it while at the machine. If they continued they would be asked to leave.
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I think the average guy wouldn't get in any trouble using a phone app in a casino.
If you are an AP I wouldn't attempt it. They might decide to make an example out of you or use it as leverage not to pay you.
Quote: WizardGood catch. That should say the maximum return is for a pick 2.
Can you recheck PT3 for Power keno, it also lists a one spot
Quote: JohnzimboCan you recheck PT3 for Power keno, it also lists a one spot
Thanks, you're right. I fixed it on my end but it may take a day or so for the corrected version to make the site.
Sean Patrick's Irish Pub & Grill on the west side that comes in at about 76% with .5 meter.
Quote: AxelWolfWe found the worst machine payback I have ever seen. They have a 6 spot Keno progressive at
Sean Patrick's Irish Pub & Grill on the west side that comes in at about 76% with .5 meter.
Is the 6-spot at least 1600? Fwiw, 1/2% meter ain't half bad as far as progressive 6-spots go. I ain't no expert, but from what I've seen anyway, and I do try to look at keno progressives. But you're right, of course, I can't imagine 76%, that's awful. And the thing is, they don't even need to do that. So greedy. There ought to be a law.
I don't think I've seen anything less than 88-87 or so.
Thanks for the post. Interesting.
Quote: bobbartopIs the 6-spot at least 1600? Fwiw, 1/2% meter ain't half bad as far as progressive 6-spots go. I ain't no expert, but from what I've seen anyway, and I do try to look at keno progressives. But you're right, of course, I can't imagine 76%, that's awful. And the thing is, they don't even need to do that. So greedy. There ought to be a law.
I don't think I've seen anything less than 88-87 or so.
Thanks for the post. Interesting.
How bad that meter is would be relative to the base pays. Let's see, assuming exactly 76%, how bad that meter is.
The first thing is that, other than variance, it really doesn't matter how that 76% is derived. Therefore, let's see what we have to do to get a six-spot to 76% assuming your 1600-FOR-1 pay on 6/6 at base:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/
How about a nice 2-4-58-1600 paytable for a base return of 0.759713704017501, that should be pretty good.
Okay, so we want to determine the breakeven meter, which is really easy:
(1-0.759713704017501) = (x * 1/7752.84)
x = 1862.901207
Of course, that's expressed in credits, so we have to do 1863 for a total of 2-4-58-3463.
The calculator confirms: 1.000012645582266
Okay, so we know that the meter is one-half of one percent. We are betting one unit, so for each miss, .005 units are being added to the meter. In other words, it takes 200 misses for the meter to move up a full unit, whatever a unit is.
The meter must move up 1863 units in order to be positive, which means that the machine must miss 372600 times from base.
We can tell that is 372600/7752.84 or 48.0598077608 cycles, but just how borderline impossible is that?
For that we can dust off a binomial distribution calculator:
N = 372600 Attempts
K = 0 6/6's
P = 1/7752.84
Well, we get the lowest possible result for the calculator that way: <0.000001
So, let's take the probability of it not happening, 7751.84/7752.84 to the 372,600th power and see what happens:
(7751.84/7752.84) = 0.999871015
(0.999871015)^372600 = 1.3382679e-21 or 0.0000000000000000000013382679 --- 1 in 747,234,540,000,000,000,000
Which is, expressed in words, 1 in Seven Hundred Forty-Seven Quintillion, Two Hundred Thirty-Four Quadrillion, Five Hundred Forty Trillion.
So, the machine isn't going to go positive very often. (Read: Never) Unless it is one of those ones upon which minimum/smaller bets do not qualify for the progressive but juice the meter...but it's still going to take a lot of those.
There is a law, it's called 75% min payback.Quote: bobbartopIs the 6-spot at least 1600? Fwiw, 1/2% meter ain't half bad as far as progressive 6-spots go. I ain't no expert, but from what I've seen anyway, and I do try to look at keno progressives. But you're right, of course, I can't imagine 76%, that's awful. And the thing is, they don't even need to do that. So greedy. There ought to be a law.
I don't think I've seen anything less than 88-87 or so.
Thanks for the post. Interesting.
Quote: Mission146How bad that meter is would be relative to the base pays. Let's see, assuming exactly 76%, how bad that meter is.
The first thing is that, other than variance, it really doesn't matter how that 76% is derived. Therefore, let's see what we have to do to get a six-spot to 76% assuming your 1600-FOR-1 pay on 6/6 at base:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/
How about a nice 2-4-58-1600 paytable for a base return of 0.759713704017501, that should be pretty good.
Okay, so we want to determine the breakeven meter, which is really easy:
(1-0.759713704017501) = (x * 1/7752.84)
x = 1862.901207
Of course, that's expressed in credits, so we have to do 1863 for a total of 2-4-58-3463.
The calculator confirms: 1.000012645582266
Okay, so we know that the meter is one-half of one percent. We are betting one unit, so for each miss, .005 units are being added to the meter. In other words, it takes 200 misses for the meter to move up a full unit, whatever a unit is.
The meter must move up 1863 units in order to be positive, which means that the machine must miss 372600 times from base.
We can tell that is 372600/7752.84 or 48.0598077608 cycles, but just how borderline impossible is that?
For that we can dust off a binomial distribution calculator:
N = 372600 Attempts
K = 0 6/6's
P = 1/7752.84
Well, we get the lowest possible result for the calculator that way: <0.000001
So, let's take the probability of it not happening, 7751.84/7752.84 to the 372,600th power and see what happens:
(7751.84/7752.84) = 0.999871015
(0.999871015)^372600 = 1.3382679e-21 or 0.0000000000000000000013382679 --- 1 in 747,234,540,000,000,000,000
Which is, expressed in words, 1 in Seven Hundred Forty-Seven Quintillion, Two Hundred Thirty-Four Quadrillion, Five Hundred Forty Trillion.
So, the machine isn't going to go positive very often. (Read: Never) Unless it is one of those ones upon which minimum/smaller bets do not qualify for the progressive but juice the meter...but it's still going to take a lot of those.
Believe it or not but I was just working on it and trying some numbers at the Wizard Calc link. My work was not going to end up looking as fancy as yours, but I didn't just fall off the turnip boat either. Uh, turnip truck, whatever. But in another half hour I was probably going to figure out the same result., i.e., it sucks. Why do they do that? Start it at 92% and put a percent meter on it. Cheap bastards. That's what I would do at Bob Bartop's Grill & Bartops.
Thank you for working that out. I'd like to know the exact paytable. Interesting subject. Thanks so much. Seriously.
Quote: AxelWolfThere is a law, it's called 75% min payback.
It's in the Bible. Thou shalt not rip off, or something like that.
