Powerball at 400 Million
Poll
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62 members have voted
Quote: Wizard
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
I bought zero and am buying zero. I have a piece of two tickets, though. My ex-wife wanted me to grab her two on my way to drop the kids off and I told her I would for 10% of the jackpot if she hits it. I get 5% if she hits the second best prize.
I also went into two gas stations for my girlfriend who wanted one from OH, one from PA and one from WV, for whatever reason. For my services I get 25% in the event she hits the top jackpot.
My Mom also picked up five or six, she says I would get, "At least ten million," if she hits the jackpot. I told her I could not promise the same because I'm not playing, but she said that's fine because she won't win anyway.
So, I'm free rolling on a percentage or fixed amount on ten tickets, but buying zero.
Quote: Mission146I bought zero and am buying zero. I have a piece of two tickets, though. My ex-wife wanted me to grab her two on my way to drop the kids off and I told her I would for 10% of the jackpot if she hits it. I get 5% if she hits the second best prize.
I also went into two gas stations for my girlfriend who wanted one from OH, one from PA and one from WV, for whatever reason. For my services I get 25% in the event she hits the top jackpot.
My Mom also picked up five or six, she says I would get, "At least ten million," if she hits the jackpot. I told her I could not promise the same because I'm not playing, but she said that's fine because she won't win anyway.
So, I'm free rolling on a percentage or fixed amount on ten tickets, but buying zero.
I hope your state isn't like PA, any tickets bought out of state are subject to your own state taxes.
Quote: GWAEI hope your state isn't like PA, any tickets bought out of state are subject to your own state taxes.
So, can you wait to cash a ticket until you move out of a state and become a resident in a more favorable state?
Don't you usually have a year to claim a prize.
I don't think you can move out of a state and become a resident in a more favorable state. If so, wouldn't everyone be doing that?Quote: rxwineSo, can you wait to cash a ticket until you move out of a state and become a resident in a more favorable state?
Don't you usually have a year to claim a prize.
It varies from state to state on how soon you have to claim the prize. Some states allow just 90 days.
When my GF and I were musing about what we (mostly she) would do with the money, she started with buying me a nice car, then a nicer house, then she also mentioned the need for security guards for her daughters. I do not want to win a jackpot that will make me think I need security guards.
At work, almost all of the people that are already pretty well off, said they would PREFER a much smaller jackpot if it could be done anonymously, say $30 million instead of a billion.
I didn't buy any tickets, but did give $2 to the pool at work. Probably around 80 people. So 1/80 of the billion is around 12 million. Perfect.....
Quote: JohnnyQ
"With each $2 Powerball ticket purchased in California, about 80 cents goes toward education... The money is divided among K-12 schools and community colleges and universities".
Read the book "How to Lie With Statistics"
Quote: SOOPOOI didn't buy any tickets, but did give $2 to the pool at work. Probably around 80 people. So 1/80 of the billion is around 12 million. Perfect.....
That is IF you get the jackpot. Anything less it will be a bunch of seals fighting over a grape. Then all the greedy small minded pettiness runs amok.
After reading about the plights of some of the less fortunate big jackpot winners, I had the same thought. So yesterday, I bought 1 PB ticket to make the wife happy, and 1 Lotto ticket ($31M jackpot) for me!Quote: SOOPOOWhen my GF and I were musing about what we (mostly she) would do with the money, she started with buying me a nice car, then a nicer house, then she also mentioned the need for security guards for her daughters. I do not want to win a jackpot that will make me think I need security guards.
At work, almost all of the people that are already pretty well off, said they would PREFER a much smaller jackpot if it could be done anonymously, say $30 million instead of a billion.
Quote: teddysDo you have the Wizard's old job with the SSA?
But true, you could probably take the lump sum and give it to the guys at Brown Brothers Harriman and they could structure a nice investment trust for you that would do far better than the annuity.
Yes. or maybe lose your ash for you.
Quote: Wizard
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
I bought 1 ($2) for last Sat and I will buy 1-2 ($2-4) for Wed evening. I don't know why, but if it were $1/play, would probably buy more.
http://windsorstar.com/storyline/windsor-strip-club-entices-customers-with-free-powerball-tickets
They want you to remember when you win 1 billion... where you got the ticket. That way you'll come back and MAKE IT RAIN on "dem ho's" with a couple mill.Quote: coilmanTickets are now available in Windsor FOR FREE
http://windsorstar.com/storyline/windsor-strip-club-entices-customers-with-free-powerball-tickets
Quote: WizardLet me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy.
I spent $10. So five shots. The chances of winning? I get a better chance of hitting the tie and the two pair bets for two hours at the bac tables. LOL.
The sets of lottery balls are kept in a double-locked vault that is set with an alarm and sealed. Three people -- including a Florida Lottery Security Officer who has the code to disarm the alarm, a Multi-State Lottery Association official with a key and someone from an independent accounting firm who has a second key -- are required to access the drawing machines and ball sets, Barnes explained. Their actions are monitored on video.
Before any ball sets are put into service, they are measured, weighed and density-tested at a state lab. There are also X-ray tests performed to see if there are any internal issues with the balls,
After those tests are completed, a second test is performed and the results are compared to statistical analysis, and only once those results are in will the balls be put into service.
Once approved, the ball sets typically last for 2-4 years, with an additional round of tests run every year, before being taken out of circulation.
The ball sets and machines that will be used in any given Powerball drawing are randomly selected before the big draw -- a primary and backup set for each color -- and pre-tests are completed to make sure that the machine are "operating randomly
http://abcnews.go.com/US/security-scenes-big-powerball-drawing/story?id=36246467
Quote: rxwineThe most secure Ping Pong balls in the world. (one hopes)
The sets of lottery balls are kept in a double-locked vault that is set with an alarm and sealed. Three people -- including a Florida Lottery Security Officer who has the code to disarm the alarm, a Multi-State Lottery Association official with a key and someone from an independent accounting firm who has a second key -- are required to access the drawing machines and ball sets, Barnes explained. Their actions are monitored on video.
Before any ball sets are put into service, they are measured, weighed and density-tested at a state lab. There are also X-ray tests performed to see if there are any internal issues with the balls,
After those tests are completed, a second test is performed and the results are compared to statistical analysis, and only once those results are in will the balls be put into service.
Once approved, the ball sets typically last for 2-4 years, with an additional round of tests run every year, before being taken out of circulation.
The ball sets and machines that will be used in any given Powerball drawing are randomly selected before the big draw -- a primary and backup set for each color -- and pre-tests are completed to make sure that the machine are "operating randomly
http://abcnews.go.com/US/security-scenes-big-powerball-drawing/story?id=36246467
How many "test draws" are required to verify the machine is "operating randomly"? Suppose the first test draw results in 1-2-3-4-5-6, and second 61-21-31-41-51-11? How do you tell the difference between a truly random draw and one that isn't?
Quote: CrystalMathWhen I was testing slot machines at GLI, one time I cleared the ram on the machine and set up a new game. The first spin, I hit the top award. I had to ram clear the machine and set it up new many more times to make sure I just hit it randomly. Likewise, if I drew 1,2,3,4,5 from a new batch of lottery balls, I'd be skeptical.
Too bad you weren't playing it for money! You remember the probability of hitting the top prize?
Quote: tringlomaneToo bad you weren't playing it for money! You remember the probability of hitting the top prize?
I don't remember exactly, but it was very low; less than 1 in 100,000. It was rare to see any games with top award odds much better than 1 in 17 million.
plus Alan and Ace . and the kid who rolled 18 yo's in a row.
Quote: DRich
I actually overheard somebody saying this yesterday. It made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
Quote: DRichWe are all going to be rich!!! Lol
That math is so bad it makes my eyes hurt.
Quote: DRichWe are all going to be rich!!! Lol
I can buy 2 McPick 2's
even with our 8.1% tax I'd still have 1 penny left!
Just enough money to tip a housekeeper when I stay in the luxury suite.
Quote: WizardQuote: DRich
I actually overheard somebody saying this yesterday. It made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
One of my roomies believed this lol. They also believe the way to win at keno is to play a specific combination of numbers they watched on a video on youtube.
"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler.
Quote: Wizard
I actually overheard somebody saying this yesterday. It made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
You should shave those hairs. :)
First of all I don't think people are scrutinizing stuff like this for errors when they see it, they assume that the poster had a valid statement to share. And secondly, it was cleverly designed to mix the billions and the millions on two different rows.Quote: WizardOkay, I know math isn't everybody's cup of tea.
OR, just as likely I guess, is that the guy who first created this is in fact a complete idiot.
In a way it reminds me of the interview about a month ago with Bill O'Reilly and Donald Trump. O'Reilly called Trump on re-tweeting one of those made-up statistics on racial violence. Trump basically said something to the effect of Hey I see lots of these things all day long, what am I supposed to do, Fact Check them all ? O'Reilly told him YES, you're running for President, you do need to be sure that what you are saying is factual !
Quote: JohnnyQFirst of all I don't think people are scrutinizing stuff like this for errors when they see it, they assume that the poster had a valid statement to share.
People should be skeptical of everything.
Quote:O'Reilly told him YES, you're running for President, you do need to be sure that what you are saying is factual !
It isn't often I say this, but O'Reily was absolutely right.
http://www.businessinsider.com/buying-every-powerball-ticket-2016-1
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyNice article on trying to print every combination:
Actually, they have the "Likelihood of having a split pot" wrong. If 600 million tickets are sold, there isn't a "13% chance of no other winners". Rather, there is a 13% chance of NO WINNERS, 26% of 1, 27% of 2, 18% of 3, 9% of 4, 4% of 5, 1% of 6, ...
http://nyti.ms/1OoZLoL
Assuming the physical limit of printing tickets is about 600 million in the space between draws, and that many of those sales will include repetitious variations of the same 31 and under birthday numbers, there appears to be a pretty steady 16% chance that no ticket will be an exact match; even with a 1. 5 billion dollar prize.
Quote: WizardThat said, before considering taxes, I show you need to be able to beat an interest rate of 2.84% for the lump sum to be the better choice.
Quote: New York TimesTaxes aside, you’ll probably quibble with the pretax rate of return on the Powerball annuity. Effectively, it’s like investing in bonds that pay 2.843 percent interest.
Nice to have that figure confirmed. However, I think the author should have also considered the long term capital gains tax. It would have only helped defend his point.
Article: Dear Powerball Winner: Take Our Advice and Take the Annuity.
<edit> Truthfully, once the tax bandits got theirs, the legal advise bandits and financial planning bandits got theirs, I'd be standing there still in my old worn Levi's wondering how come I don't have enough cash to play a night in the High Limit room....and where's all the H & B?
Quote: BobEActually, they have the "Likelihood of having a split pot" wrong. If 600 million tickets are sold, there isn't a "13% chance of no other winners". Rather, there is a 13% chance of NO WINNERS, 26% of 1, 27% of 2, 18% of 3, 9% of 4, 4% of 5, 1% of 6, ...
They are the same. If you check your numbers and you're a winner, there are still 599,999,999 tickets out there which have a 13% chance of producing no winners.
I don't know if I believe this...Quote: WizardPeople should be skeptical of everything...
Recursive disagreement ...Quote: RomesI don't know if I believe this...
My favorite (incorrect) lottery-winning odds metaphor: "... replace your GPS with a monkey. The professor says your chances of reaching your destination are better with the monkey than winning the Powerball."
Quote: rxwineHas any casino offered a free weeks stay to the winner(s)? (doesn't seem like a bad promotion idea) The media probably give it free publicity just reporting it.
I think it would look bad -- like you're trying to trick the dumb rube who won into throwing his money away.
Quote: WizardI think it would look bad -- like you're trying to trick the dumb rube who won into throwing his money away.
Mike... you would be misinterpreting the casino's motives. They would just be offering a peaceful comfortable room to help the lucky winner figure out what investment options are available to him. And until the billion is made liquid, it is such a kind gesture to give the winner that free room.....
Quote: CrystalMathThey are the same. If you check your numbers and you're a winner, there are still 599,999,999 tickets out there which have a 13% chance of producing no winners.
You may be right. It's been about 50 years since my college statistics classes. However, my theory is this:
The original pool had 600 million entries. The probabilities were based on that entire pool. You just removed 1 entry from that pool which was a winner. The remainder of the pool now has a distribution that is skewed from the original. The probability that there were no winners in the original pool is now 0. So that 13% probability has to be removed. So we're left with determining a revised breakdown of the 87% probability that remains. Because of the large size of the pool I would guess that prorating the remaining probabilities would be close to correct. That would mean that the probability of no more winners would be the original probability of 1 winner (26%) divided by the remaining probability (87%) which equals about 30%.
However, I can't offer any proof.
A mathematician was really frightened that if he flew then there would be a bomb on the plane. He learned that roughly 1 out of every 1 million flights had a bomb on it. So, he hatched a plan. Sure enough, as he was trying to smuggle a bomb onto the plane, he got caught. When asked why he tried to smuggle on a bomb, he said it was for his own safety. He said, "if the odds are 1-in-1,000,000 that there will be a bomb on a plane, then the odds are 1-in-1,000,000,000,000 that there will be two bombs on the plane! Bringing a bomb on board makes the flight one million times safer!"
