2014 Election bets
November 2nd, 2014 at 8:51:53 PM
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Here are my bets for Tuesday. I know some of them are silly, but after I took the trouble to do the math, I wanted to bet enough to at least win $1.
| Description | Bet | To win |
|---|---|---|
| 10013 Dick Durbin (D) wins IL election -5400* vs Jim Oberweis (R) wins IL election | $270.00 | $5.00 |
| 10021 Gary Peters (D) wins MI election -4500* vs Terry Lynn Land (R) wins MI election | $450.00 | $10.00 |
| 10023 Al Franken (D) wins MN election -7500* vs Mike McFadden (R) wins MN election | $375.00 | $5.00 |
| 10026 Thad Cochran (R) wins MS election -4500* vs Travis Childers (D) wins MS election | $450.00 | $10.00 |
| 10033 Cory Booker (D) wins NJ election -11000* vs Jeff Bell (R) wins NJ election | $550.00 | $5.00 |
| 10035 Jeff Merkley (D) wins OR election -9600* vs Monica Wehby (R) wins OR election | $480.00 | $5.00 |
| 10040 Mike Rounds (R) wins SD election -4500* vs Rick Weiland (D) wins SD election | $225.00 | $5.00 |
| 10042 Lamar Alexander (R) wins TN election -30000* vs Gordon Ball (D) wins TN election | $300.00 | $1.00 |
| 10043 Mark Warner (D) wins VA election -4800* vs Ed Gillespie (R) wins VA election | $240.00 | $5.00 |
| 10010 David Perdue (R) wins GA election -195* vs Michelle Nunn (D) wins GA election | $48.75 | $25.00 |
| 10018 Mitch McConnell (R) wins KY election -1200* vs Alison Lundergan G (D) wins KY election | $300.00 | $25.00 |
| 10029 Kay Hagan (D) wins NC election -230* vs Thom Tillis (R) wins NC election | $57.50 | $25.00 |
| 10031 Jeanne Shaheen (D) wins NH election -335* vs Scott Brown (R) wins NH election | $83.75 | $25.00 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:11:22 PM
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Looks about right to me, Wiz. Some aren't what I am hoping for, but the probabilities are most likely correct. If I had to pick one that you would lose, I would pick the Georgia Senate race, and it has nothing to do with politics, it has to do with the Democrats have signed up more than 200K new voters in Georgia since last election. That is a large number and if they have any kind of success getting those people to vote, could present a fairly big unknown in what is already a close race. BUT, there is a big difference between signing up voters at a bus stop or a shopping mall and getting them to take time out of their day and actually go vote. Lol
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:16:58 PM
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Quote: kewljLooks about right to me, Wiz. Some aren't what I am hoping for, but the probabilities are most likely correct. If I had to pick one that you would lose, I would pick the Georgia Senate race, and it has nothing to do with politics, it has to do with the Democrats have signed up more than 200K new voters in Georgia since last election. That is a large number and if they have any kind of success getting those people to vote, could present a fairly big unknown in what is already a close race. BUT, there is a big difference between signing up voters at a bus stop or a shopping mall and getting them to take time out of their day and actually go vote. Lol
That is the most likely bet to lose. According to fivethirtyeight.com, the probability of the Red team winning in GA is 68%, which equates to a fair money line of -212.5. So I happily laid 195. I wanted to bet more, but the limit was to win $25.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 2nd, 2014 at 9:41:15 PM
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This was easier in the past. FWIW, you can parlay these, at least on 5d.
Also, I took a shot at Begich in Alaska +265 based on this article. The main 538 senate page says those odds are correct. But this suggests there might be some value due to recent polls and the difficulty of polling in Alaska.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-polling-in-alaska-is-making-us-sweat/
"Has Begich made a comeback? Perhaps. His chance of pulling out the race is up to 34 percent in the FiveThirtyEight model, up from a low of about 20 percent earlier this month."
That's from Oct. 28. I'd guess the main page is more current, but at the same time the odds were also +265 when I bet, around Oct. 30. So I dunno. Even if the main page is the correct one, it's about neutral.
Also, I took a shot at Begich in Alaska +265 based on this article. The main 538 senate page says those odds are correct. But this suggests there might be some value due to recent polls and the difficulty of polling in Alaska.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-polling-in-alaska-is-making-us-sweat/
"Has Begich made a comeback? Perhaps. His chance of pulling out the race is up to 34 percent in the FiveThirtyEight model, up from a low of about 20 percent earlier this month."
That's from Oct. 28. I'd guess the main page is more current, but at the same time the odds were also +265 when I bet, around Oct. 30. So I dunno. Even if the main page is the correct one, it's about neutral.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:50:21 AM
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Quote: kewljthere is a big difference between signing up voters at a bus stop or a shopping mall and getting them to take time out of their day and actually go vote. Lol
Don't underestimate what can be done with early voting, which I personally believe is often a manipulated vote ... debatable as to whether it is often even fraudulent. The suspicion among many is that people are outright handing over their ballots in many cases. Who knows exactly how bad it is.
BTW this isn't the same as absentee balloting.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:20:28 AM
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Quote: WizardHere are my bets for Tuesday. I know some of them are silly, but after I took the trouble to do the math, I wanted to bet enough to at least win $1.
Description Bet To win 10013 Dick Durbin (D) wins IL election -5400* vs Jim Oberweis (R) wins IL election $270.00 $5.00 10021 Gary Peters (D) wins MI election -4500* vs Terry Lynn Land (R) wins MI election $450.00 $10.00 10023 Al Franken (D) wins MN election -7500* vs Mike McFadden (R) wins MN election $375.00 $5.00 10026 Thad Cochran (R) wins MS election -4500* vs Travis Childers (D) wins MS election $450.00 $10.00 10033 Cory Booker (D) wins NJ election -11000* vs Jeff Bell (R) wins NJ election $550.00 $5.00 10035 Jeff Merkley (D) wins OR election -9600* vs Monica Wehby (R) wins OR election $480.00 $5.00 10040 Mike Rounds (R) wins SD election -4500* vs Rick Weiland (D) wins SD election $225.00 $5.00 10042 Lamar Alexander (R) wins TN election -30000* vs Gordon Ball (D) wins TN election $300.00 $1.00 10043 Mark Warner (D) wins VA election -4800* vs Ed Gillespie (R) wins VA election $240.00 $5.00 10010 David Perdue (R) wins GA election -195* vs Michelle Nunn (D) wins GA election $48.75 $25.00 10018 Mitch McConnell (R) wins KY election -1200* vs Alison Lundergan G (D) wins KY election $300.00 $25.00 10029 Kay Hagan (D) wins NC election -230* vs Thom Tillis (R) wins NC election $57.50 $25.00 10031 Jeanne Shaheen (D) wins NH election -335* vs Scott Brown (R) wins NH election $83.75 $25.00
Does the Nunn/Perdue bet resolve against the winner of the primary on Tuesday, or against the winner of the runoff in January?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:40:41 AM
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I see the NC race as closer than the odds say, but you should still win it.
November 3rd, 2014 at 6:06:30 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusDoes the Nunn/Perdue bet resolve against the winner of the primary on Tuesday, or against the winner of the runoff in January?
I wasn't aware that was just a primary in Georgia. I'd interpret it as resolving on Tuesday, even if the winner loses in the general election. If this is an election between a D and R, who is the winner going to run against?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 3rd, 2014 at 6:13:08 AM
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Quote: WizardI wasn't aware that was just a primary in Georgia. I'd interpret it as resolving on Tuesday, even if the winner loses in the general election. If this is an election between a D and R, who is the winner going to run against?
I think what is going on in GA is that if neither candidate gets over 50% of the votes, then the top 2 go in a run off election without any 3rd party candidates.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:28:05 AM
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Quote: terapinedI think what is going on in GA is that if neither candidate gets over 50% of the votes, then the top 2 go in a run off election without any 3rd party candidates.
Hmmm. I don't know how the bet would be adjudicated. I assume that would come down to the runoff.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:29:00 AM
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Quote: WizardHmmm. I don't know how the bet would be adjudicated. I assume that would come down to the runoff.
If you bet the Alaska senate race you may not get a quick resolution. If the race is really close then it will come down to the bush vote, about 10% of the electorate. It can take a couple of weeks to tally those votes.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:18:03 AM
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Quote: mickeycrimmIf you bet the Alaska senate race you may not get a quick resolution. If the race is really close then it will come down to the bush vote, about 10% of the electorate. It can take a couple of weeks to tally those votes.
Mickey I haven't looked at any polls or stats, [you will have to trust me], but I got ten bucks says Begich wins, even money. You in?
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:46:52 AM
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Quote: petroglyphMickey I haven't looked at any polls or stats, [you will have to trust me], but I got ten bucks says Begich wins, even money. You in?
I can't find an edge on the bet. While Sullivan is polling 1% better than Begich, Alaska is filled with government workers, whether federal, state, or city borough. I think the government workers will fall out in large numbers for Begich which might put him over the top. Either way it looks like a crap shoot to me. And I don't play craps because I can't find an edge.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
November 3rd, 2014 at 1:40:04 PM
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Begich just shot to +400. Google and twitter revealed nothing new, so I bet on him again.
November 3rd, 2014 at 1:48:01 PM
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Quote: mickeycrimmIf you bet the Alaska senate race you may not get a quick resolution. If the race is really close then it will come down to the bush vote, about 10% of the electorate. It can take a couple of weeks to tally those votes.
When I first read this, I overlooked Alaska. And was wondering what state took weeks to count the female vote.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 3rd, 2014 at 1:54:39 PM
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Quote: BuzzardWhen I first read this, I overlooked Alaska. And was wondering what state took weeks to count the female vote.
You would fit right in Buzz.
The ration of men to women up there is 4-1. The women all say about catching a husband that the odds are good, but the goods are odd.
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:13:19 PM
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Probably have a few old friends up there. Most states wont extradite from there for just a felony or two. Too expensive.
Rumor had it my old boss, Julius " The Lord " Salisbury might have died a ripe old age in Alaska.
Gee, the Feds wasted all that tax payer money looking for him in Israel. LOL
Rumor had it my old boss, Julius " The Lord " Salisbury might have died a ripe old age in Alaska.
Gee, the Feds wasted all that tax payer money looking for him in Israel. LOL
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:15:19 PM
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Quote: petroglyphThe ration of men to women up there is 4-1.
Can you provide a source for that? I've been to Alaska four times and while I wouldn't dispute 3-2, 4-1 seems kind of ridiculous to me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:18:08 PM
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107 to 100. Not exactly 3/2 either ?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/opinion/sutter-alaska-ratio-rape/
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/opinion/sutter-alaska-ratio-rape/
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:24:16 PM
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Looking for hotties 25-33 ? Hey, 3 states got it worse than Alaskan men !
http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//highest-male-slash-female-ratios-states
http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//highest-male-slash-female-ratios-states
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:09:54 PM
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Quote: WizardCan you provide a source for that? I've been to Alaska four times and while I wouldn't dispute 3-2, 4-1 seems kind of ridiculous to me.
It appears that according to census I was way off.
It appears now there are appx. 107/100 male/female, hardly the 4-1 ratio I stated. I also found appx. 52% male, of course +/- a bit?
It also depends on where, when and race. In the Klondike years the ratio [white males to females] was wildly lopsided but in the native population it was pretty well balanced.
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080707160051AAlzwLW
The rumor was heard far and wide. While raising my kids it always appeared about 50/50, but being in a remote mancamp it seemed brutally skewed. Even after reading the census and looking for a link, I have no idea where all the women were hiding?
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:12:37 PM
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Quote: BuzzardLooking for hotties 25-33 ? Hey, 3 states got it worse than Alaskan men !
http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//highest-male-slash-female-ratios-states
Strange how all 50 states have more men than women in that age group. I suspect they mean single men and women.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 3rd, 2014 at 5:01:17 PM
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Quote: petroglyphIt appears that according to census I was way off.
It appears now there are appx. 107/100 male/female, hardly the 4-1 ratio I stated. I also found appx. 52% male, of course +/- a bit?
It also depends on where, when and race. In the Klondike years the ratio [white males to females] was wildly lopsided but in the native population it was pretty well balanced.
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080707160051AAlzwLW
The rumor was heard far and wide. While raising my kids it always appeared about 50/50, but being in a remote mancamp it seemed brutally skewed. Even after reading the census and looking for a link, I have no idea where all the women were hiding?
The ratio depends on where you are at. Juneau, the state capitol, was the best town I've ever been in for picking up women. Lots of female state workers in that town. But in Dutch Harbor it's probably like 50 men to every woman. We had jokes.
"You don't lose your girlfriend. You just lose your turn."
"I came to Dutch Harbor to be a gigolo. I figure if I can make it as a gigolo here I can make it anywhere."
"There's a woman behind every tree in Dutch." See if you can find a tree.
"On the jets leaving Dutch there is a sign that comes on where the women sit, up by the no smoking sign. It says 'you are leaving Dutch Harbor. You are ugly again.'"
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
November 3rd, 2014 at 5:18:38 PM
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re: Georgia. There's a libertarian candidate polling well enough that the most likely outcome will be a runoff. State requires a majority, not just a plurality.
If you can still make bets, Charlie Crist(D) will unseat incumbent Rick Scott(R) tomorrow in the Florida Governor's race. We do only need a plurality, and there's a Libertarian taking votes from Scott as well. Among them, the candidates have spent approximately 200 MILLION dollars, which I think is the most in the nation this election year. We hate them all by now.
If you can still make bets, Charlie Crist(D) will unseat incumbent Rick Scott(R) tomorrow in the Florida Governor's race. We do only need a plurality, and there's a Libertarian taking votes from Scott as well. Among them, the candidates have spent approximately 200 MILLION dollars, which I think is the most in the nation this election year. We hate them all by now.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 3rd, 2014 at 6:39:15 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsre: Georgia. There's a libertarian candidate polling well enough that the most likely outcome will be a runoff. State requires a majority, not just a plurality.
If you can still make bets, Charlie Crist(D) will unseat incumbent Rick Scott(R) tomorrow in the Florida Governor's race. We do only need a plurality, and there's a Libertarian taking votes from Scott as well. Among them, the candidates have spent approximately 200 MILLION dollars, which I think is the most in the nation this election year. We hate them all by now.
I love Florida and hope to retire there, but how do they trust Crist who was a Republican for years? Or is he just the lessor of 2 evils?
November 3rd, 2014 at 6:48:52 PM
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There is an intangible in several states, Florida included, that could change the electorate in a couple states in a way that the polls aren't counting on. Legalization of marijuana is on the ballot in Florida, Alaska, Oregon and Maine. This will draw some younger liberal voters who other otherwise wouldn't vote in off-presidential election year to the polls. It also could motivate some staunch conservatives that are very much against this issue, but they are exactly the voters who were already likely to be part of such a mid-term election, so it's the democrats that are likely to benefit more in these states.
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:03:45 PM
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Quote: BozI love Florida and hope to retire there, but how do they trust Crist who was a Republican for years? Or is he just the lessor of 2 evils?
Crist said that he didn't leave the Republican party, it left him. He's a moderate, like Bob Dole, Trent Lott, and Olympia Snowe. He doesn't support either Tea Party principles or the personal invasions of the party's social agenda. He initially became an Independent, but the Democrats recruited him in the state after a strong showing in the Senate race of 2010, which he lost to Marco Rubio. (He was initially the RNC's choice for the Senate seat, but as Governor, he supported the Reconstruction Act and the R's saw that as a repudiation and dropped him.) There was no one in the state who appeared to be capable of running Scott out, so they offered the financial support that would make it possible for him to win.
Right now, it looks like it worked; Scott is genuinely hated here by most; his nickname is Voldemort, and it's not undeserved. Crist is running with virtually all Democrats, a 3-1 margin among Independents, and quite a few Republicans who prefer their governors more moderate than Scott has proved to be. Scott has very high negatives through turning down infrastructure money, signing many anti-woman bills, illegal trickery with the voter rolls in 2012, and especially as a thief and liar in "earning" his millions through Medicare fraud.
But tomorrow will tell.
For a pretty raw but accurate accounting of both, Rolling Stone overview of Florida governor's race. This is NOT your usual political piece; well worth the read.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:10:24 PM
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Quote: WizardHere are my bets for Tuesday. I know some of them are silly, but after I took the trouble to do the math, I wanted to bet enough to at least win $1.
Description Bet To win 10013 Dick Durbin (D) wins IL election -5400* vs Jim Oberweis (R) wins IL election $270.00 $5.00 10021 Gary Peters (D) wins MI election -4500* vs Terry Lynn Land (R) wins MI election $450.00 $10.00 10023 Al Franken (D) wins MN election -7500* vs Mike McFadden (R) wins MN election $375.00 $5.00 10026 Thad Cochran (R) wins MS election -4500* vs Travis Childers (D) wins MS election $450.00 $10.00 10033 Cory Booker (D) wins NJ election -11000* vs Jeff Bell (R) wins NJ election $550.00 $5.00 10035 Jeff Merkley (D) wins OR election -9600* vs Monica Wehby (R) wins OR election $480.00 $5.00 10040 Mike Rounds (R) wins SD election -4500* vs Rick Weiland (D) wins SD election $225.00 $5.00 10042 Lamar Alexander (R) wins TN election -30000* vs Gordon Ball (D) wins TN election $300.00 $1.00 10043 Mark Warner (D) wins VA election -4800* vs Ed Gillespie (R) wins VA election $240.00 $5.00 10010 David Perdue (R) wins GA election -195* vs Michelle Nunn (D) wins GA election $48.75 $25.00 10018 Mitch McConnell (R) wins KY election -1200* vs Alison Lundergan G (D) wins KY election $300.00 $25.00 10029 Kay Hagan (D) wins NC election -230* vs Thom Tillis (R) wins NC election $57.50 $25.00 10031 Jeanne Shaheen (D) wins NH election -335* vs Scott Brown (R) wins NH election $83.75 $25.00
What is the point of betting $300 to win $1? If you believe you have an advantage, why not bet $30,000 to win $100?
November 4th, 2014 at 8:08:01 PM
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Quote: sodawaterWhat is the point of betting $300 to win $1? If you believe you have an advantage, why not bet $30,000 to win $100?
1. The maximum win is $25.
2. I had nowhere near $30,000 in my account.
I'm in trouble in a couple races:
| 10043 Mark Warner (D) wins VA election -4800* vs Ed Gillespie (R) wins VA election | $240.00 | $5.00 |
| 10029 Kay Hagan (D) wins NC election -230* vs Thom Tillis (R) wins NC election | $57.50 | $25.00 |
I can take losing NC, but to lay 48 to 1 in Virginia and lose is going to be embarrassing.
As I write this CBS news has Virginia as a toss up with 93% of the vote in.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 4th, 2014 at 8:47:58 PM
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Quote: WizardHere are my bets for Tuesday. I know some of them are silly, but after I took the trouble to do the math, I wanted to bet enough to at least win $1.
Description Bet To win 10013 Dick Durbin (D) wins IL election -5400* vs Jim Oberweis (R) wins IL election $270.00 $5.00 10021 Gary Peters (D) wins MI election -4500* vs Terry Lynn Land (R) wins MI election $450.00 $10.00 10023 Al Franken (D) wins MN election -7500* vs Mike McFadden (R) wins MN election $375.00 $5.00 10026 Thad Cochran (R) wins MS election -4500* vs Travis Childers (D) wins MS election $450.00 $10.00 10033 Cory Booker (D) wins NJ election -11000* vs Jeff Bell (R) wins NJ election $550.00 $5.00 10035 Jeff Merkley (D) wins OR election -9600* vs Monica Wehby (R) wins OR election $480.00 $5.00 10040 Mike Rounds (R) wins SD election -4500* vs Rick Weiland (D) wins SD election $225.00 $5.00 10042 Lamar Alexander (R) wins TN election -30000* vs Gordon Ball (D) wins TN election $300.00 $1.00 10043 Mark Warner (D) wins VA election -4800* vs Ed Gillespie (R) wins VA election $240.00 $5.00 10010 David Perdue (R) wins GA election -195* vs Michelle Nunn (D) wins GA election $48.75 $25.00 10018 Mitch McConnell (R) wins KY election -1200* vs Alison Lundergan G (D) wins KY election $300.00 $25.00 10029 Kay Hagan (D) wins NC election -230* vs Thom Tillis (R) wins NC election $57.50 $25.00 10031 Jeanne Shaheen (D) wins NH election -335* vs Scott Brown (R) wins NH election $83.75 $25.00
Where are these lines from?
November 4th, 2014 at 8:50:51 PM
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Warner is back to a slim 13,000 vote lead.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 5th, 2014 at 3:08:25 AM
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Quote: z2newtonWhere are these lines from?
5 Dimes.
3 AM Pacific time and I'm up by 12,000 votes with 5% left to count.
Hopefully, for purposes of my bet, the lead will hold up. Looks like Sarvis the Libertarian candidate will have been the spoiler, taking 53,000 votes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 5th, 2014 at 3:50:39 AM
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Wow, it was impossible to believe Gillespie had a chance. The Republicans made a choice to yank campaign funding help about a month ago. Hardly anything else was on the ballot; you had to decide whether Warner needed your vote or not, and it didnt seem like he did, no chance!
The Dems just didnt get out their vote.
Dems nationwide need to fire the *hip dudes* running this show: http://rockthevote.tumblr.com/
It seems to be true that Virginia sort of discourages Early Voting Scams (I can't quite be sure that it is aways a scam) certainly absentee provisions have been around forever. But there is something about what is going on in some states that I can't get a handle on.
Virginia rules about early voting, in which apparently one obtains an absentee ballot
_
http://www.866ourvote.org/state/va
_
If You Want to Vote Early
Virginia offers in-person absentee voting. Starting 45 days before the election and ending at 5:00 pm on November 2, 2014, a voter may apply for an absentee ballot in-person at the registrar's office and apply for an absentee ballot per the above parameters, and vote in-person at the office.
Check with your county registrar's office for hours of operation and locations for in-person absentee voting. Check here.
If You Want to Vote Absentee
The following registered voters may vote by absentee ballot in any election in which they are qualified to vote:
Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation or while on personal business or vacation, will be absent from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
Any person who is:
a member of a uniformed service of the United States, on active duty;
a member of the merchant marine of the United States;
who temporarily resides outside of the United States;
the spouse or dependent residing with any person listed in the first three bullets; and
who will be absent on the day of the election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote.
Any student attending a school or institution of learning, or his spouse, who will be absent on the day of election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
Any person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of election because of a disability, illness or pregnancy;
Any person who is confined while awaiting trial or for having been convicted of a misdemeanor, provided that the trial or release date is scheduled on or after the third day preceding the election. Any person who is awaiting trial and is a resident of the county or city where he is confined shall, on his request, be taken to the polls to vote on election day if his trial date is postponed and he did not have an opportunity to vote absentee;
Any person who is a member of an electoral board, registrar, officer of election, or custodian of voting equipment;
Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because he is primarily and personally responsible for the care of an ill or disabled family member who is confined at home;
Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because of an obligation occasioned by his religion;
Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation, will be at his place of work and commuting to and from his home to his place of work for eleven or more hours of the thirteen that the polls are open (6:00 AM to 7:00 PM); or
Any person who is a law-enforcement officer; firefighter; volunteer firefighter; search and rescue personnel or emergency medical services personnel.
Rules and Deadlines:
Completing an absentee ballot application: Virginia law prescribes that Applications for absentee ballots shall be obtained in person at your local election board office or online.
In-person
An application completed in person shall be made not less than three days prior to the election in which the applicant offers to vote and completed only in the office of the local general registrar. The applicant shall sign the application in the presence of a registrar or the secretary of the electoral board. An in person application to vote absentee may be made/submitted up to 3 days before the election in which the applicant wishes to vote.
Note: for first time voters, absentee ballots cannot be issued until the applicant has registered for 5 days (there is an exception for military and overseas voters).
By mail, e-mail, or fax
Applications can be made by mail, electronic or by fax, if one is available to the office of the local general registrar. If a fax device is not available locally, contact the State Board of Elections. The application shall be sent to the appropriate local general registrar not later than 5:00 PM (EST) on the Tuesday prior to the election.
To track your absentee ballot, click here.
Absentee ballots must be returned to the Election Board by 7:00pm on Election Day.
Emergency Absentee Voting
Incapacity with Designated Representative
Eligibility:
Voter became ill or incapacitated on or after the 7th day preceding the election;
Voter became hospitalized on or after the 14th day preceding the election, but still in hospital and condition has made unable to request an absentee ballot earlier than the 7th day before an election;
Bereaved by a “family member” as defined by 24.2-705.1(2); or
Other comparably incapacitating emergency found by the Electoral Board to justify providing an emergency ballot application.
Voter Requirements:
Designated representative may request through the day before the election;
Completed application must be delivered back to the local registrar’s office by 2 p.m. the day before the election; and
Voted ballot must be returned before polls close on election day (exception allows designated representative to return the voted ballot).
Voter Plans Change After Noon Saturday
Eligibility:
Late Assignment of an Election Officer, or
Required emergency Travel for Business, Hospitalization or Death in Immediate Family.
Voter Requirements:
Apply and vote in person by 2 p.m. on the day preceding the election.
The Dems just didnt get out their vote.
Dems nationwide need to fire the *hip dudes* running this show: http://rockthevote.tumblr.com/
It seems to be true that Virginia sort of discourages Early Voting Scams (I can't quite be sure that it is aways a scam) certainly absentee provisions have been around forever. But there is something about what is going on in some states that I can't get a handle on.
Virginia rules about early voting, in which apparently one obtains an absentee ballot
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http://www.866ourvote.org/state/va
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If You Want to Vote Early
Virginia offers in-person absentee voting. Starting 45 days before the election and ending at 5:00 pm on November 2, 2014, a voter may apply for an absentee ballot in-person at the registrar's office and apply for an absentee ballot per the above parameters, and vote in-person at the office.
Check with your county registrar's office for hours of operation and locations for in-person absentee voting. Check here.
If You Want to Vote Absentee
The following registered voters may vote by absentee ballot in any election in which they are qualified to vote:
Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation or while on personal business or vacation, will be absent from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
Any person who is:
a member of a uniformed service of the United States, on active duty;
a member of the merchant marine of the United States;
who temporarily resides outside of the United States;
the spouse or dependent residing with any person listed in the first three bullets; and
who will be absent on the day of the election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote.
Any student attending a school or institution of learning, or his spouse, who will be absent on the day of election from the county or city in which he is entitled to vote;
Any person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of election because of a disability, illness or pregnancy;
Any person who is confined while awaiting trial or for having been convicted of a misdemeanor, provided that the trial or release date is scheduled on or after the third day preceding the election. Any person who is awaiting trial and is a resident of the county or city where he is confined shall, on his request, be taken to the polls to vote on election day if his trial date is postponed and he did not have an opportunity to vote absentee;
Any person who is a member of an electoral board, registrar, officer of election, or custodian of voting equipment;
Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because he is primarily and personally responsible for the care of an ill or disabled family member who is confined at home;
Any duly registered person who is unable to go in person to the polls on the day of the election because of an obligation occasioned by his religion;
Any person who, in the regular and orderly course of his business, profession, or occupation, will be at his place of work and commuting to and from his home to his place of work for eleven or more hours of the thirteen that the polls are open (6:00 AM to 7:00 PM); or
Any person who is a law-enforcement officer; firefighter; volunteer firefighter; search and rescue personnel or emergency medical services personnel.
Rules and Deadlines:
Completing an absentee ballot application: Virginia law prescribes that Applications for absentee ballots shall be obtained in person at your local election board office or online.
In-person
An application completed in person shall be made not less than three days prior to the election in which the applicant offers to vote and completed only in the office of the local general registrar. The applicant shall sign the application in the presence of a registrar or the secretary of the electoral board. An in person application to vote absentee may be made/submitted up to 3 days before the election in which the applicant wishes to vote.
Note: for first time voters, absentee ballots cannot be issued until the applicant has registered for 5 days (there is an exception for military and overseas voters).
By mail, e-mail, or fax
Applications can be made by mail, electronic or by fax, if one is available to the office of the local general registrar. If a fax device is not available locally, contact the State Board of Elections. The application shall be sent to the appropriate local general registrar not later than 5:00 PM (EST) on the Tuesday prior to the election.
To track your absentee ballot, click here.
Absentee ballots must be returned to the Election Board by 7:00pm on Election Day.
Emergency Absentee Voting
Incapacity with Designated Representative
Eligibility:
Voter became ill or incapacitated on or after the 7th day preceding the election;
Voter became hospitalized on or after the 14th day preceding the election, but still in hospital and condition has made unable to request an absentee ballot earlier than the 7th day before an election;
Bereaved by a “family member” as defined by 24.2-705.1(2); or
Other comparably incapacitating emergency found by the Electoral Board to justify providing an emergency ballot application.
Voter Requirements:
Designated representative may request through the day before the election;
Completed application must be delivered back to the local registrar’s office by 2 p.m. the day before the election; and
Voted ballot must be returned before polls close on election day (exception allows designated representative to return the voted ballot).
Voter Plans Change After Noon Saturday
Eligibility:
Late Assignment of an Election Officer, or
Required emergency Travel for Business, Hospitalization or Death in Immediate Family.
Voter Requirements:
Apply and vote in person by 2 p.m. on the day preceding the election.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 5th, 2014 at 6:49:01 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsCrist said that he didn't leave the Republican party, it left him. He's a moderate, like Bob Dole, Trent Lott, and Olympia Snowe. He doesn't support either Tea Party principles or the personal invasions of the party's social agenda. He initially became an Independent, but the Democrats recruited him in the state after a strong showing in the Senate race of 2010, which he lost to Marco Rubio. (He was initially the RNC's choice for the Senate seat, but as Governor, he supported the Reconstruction Act and the R's saw that as a repudiation and dropped him.) There was no one in the state who appeared to be capable of running Scott out, so they offered the financial support that would make it possible for him to win.
Right now, it looks like it worked; Scott is genuinely hated here by most; his nickname is Voldemort, and it's not undeserved. Crist is running with virtually all Democrats, a 3-1 margin among Independents, and quite a few Republicans who prefer their governors more moderate than Scott has proved to be. Scott has very high negatives through turning down infrastructure money, signing many anti-woman bills, illegal trickery with the voter rolls in 2012, and especially as a thief and liar in "earning" his millions through Medicare fraud.
But tomorrow will tell.
For a pretty raw but accurate accounting of both, Rolling Stone overview of Florida governor's race. This is NOT your usual political piece; well worth the read.
Looks like the ones that hated him stayed home. Or Crist was just the victim of a wave of anti Obama voters.
November 5th, 2014 at 12:28:15 PM
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My guy is ahead by only 12,000 in Virginia and a recount seems likely. Latest news on that topic. If I lose this one, at 48 to 1, it will be the most odds I've ever laid, and lost, on a bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2014 at 10:59:22 AM
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Quote: WizardMy guy is ahead by only 12,000 in Virginia and a recount seems likely. Latest news on that topic. If I lose this one, at 48 to 1, it will be the most odds I've ever laid, and lost, on a bet.
Warner just won, the other guy just conceded and called Warner to congratulate.
Woohoo for the Wiz and the Dems :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
