Roulette Free Play
July 15th, 2014 at 11:47:38 AM
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I have some free play at a casino of $X which I can either play in one lump or break it up into two equal lumps of $X/2. I ran some numbers to see if I was better off using the free play in one spin or in two. I think one, but my math may not be right:
ONE SPIN
Outcome 1: win 4 units (2-unit bet) * 47.4% = +1.89 units
Outcome 2: lose 2 units * 52.6% = -1.05 units
EV = +0.84 units
TWO SPINS:
Outcome 1: win 4 units * 22.4% = +0.90 units
Outcome 2: win 0 units * 24.9% = 0 units (this happens twice but at 0, I'll just list it once)
Outcome 4: lose 2 units * 27.7% = -0.55 units
EV = +0.34 units
First of all, free play is awesome (from a sunk-cost perspective).
Second of all, 0.50 units seems like too large of a difference and too easy of a decision. Is that correct?
ONE SPIN
Outcome 1: win 4 units (2-unit bet) * 47.4% = +1.89 units
Outcome 2: lose 2 units * 52.6% = -1.05 units
EV = +0.84 units
TWO SPINS:
Outcome 1: win 4 units * 22.4% = +0.90 units
Outcome 2: win 0 units * 24.9% = 0 units (this happens twice but at 0, I'll just list it once)
Outcome 4: lose 2 units * 27.7% = -0.55 units
EV = +0.34 units
First of all, free play is awesome (from a sunk-cost perspective).
Second of all, 0.50 units seems like too large of a difference and too easy of a decision. Is that correct?
July 15th, 2014 at 1:23:33 PM
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You have a typo. Two spin outcome 4 is a loss of 4 units.
Did that change the other results?
Did that change the other results?
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July 15th, 2014 at 4:15:37 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYou have a typo. Two spin outcome 4 is a loss of 4 units.
Did that change the other results?
The freeplay is two units, my cash is the other two. The bet is 4 units but only 2 of them are mine, which I may or may not split up into two 1-unit bets.
The scenarios are one 2-of-my-units bet with two possible outcomes OR two 1-of-my-unit bets with four possible outcomes.
Does that make sense?
