PGP COPY HANDS

In PGP 2 card copy hands are common.

Yesterday I had a 5 card copy hand. The dealer beat me with the 2 card hand and I lost the game.

What are the odds of getting a 5 card copy hand?

approximately 1 in 3,000.

Quote: Paigowdan

approximately 1 in 3,000.

Not that I doubt you, but Wiz of Odds PGP says:

Quote:

The probability that the front hands will copy is 2.55%. The probability that the back hands will copy is 0.10%.

which would be 1 in about 1000 hands.

I referred to a simulation where I had 1,700 five-card side copies in 5M. Will recheck.

I would say you can use any of WOO's math with high confidence first.

I had a 7 card copy once. That should be an auto win.

For the Trump Plaza House Way, the Wizard's answer is correct.

If you play a different strategy and/or the House uses a different strategy, the numbers will vary a bit.
Some Player strategies promote ties rather than a loss. Usually, this will cause fewer ties in both hands INDIVUALLY, seeking a WIN/LOSS scenario as the tie. Therefore its possible that the odds of a 2-card tie or a 5-card tie get significantly reduced.

Quote: Paigowdan

I referred to a simulation where I had 1,700 five-card side copies in 5M. Will recheck.

I would say you can use any of WOO's math with high confidence first.

My favorite answer is "It depends..." When I worked in the Industrial Engineering Department at UPS about a decade ago, our favorite joke went something like this: The Operations Manager asks, "So, what's the number?" and the IE responds, "Well, what do you want the number to be?"

I like fudge, don't you?

The analysis on the WoO PGP page is for both player and dealer playing the Trump Plaza house way, so it's possible that the statistics are based on the same. It makes sense that copies would occur more often when player and dealer are using the same strategy. Dan, is your simulation based on your optimal strategy versus the house way? That may explain the difference... I really just wanted to share my IE joke!