Simple algorithm question - Can't find answer - sorry if asked before

All,

Apologies if this has been asked, but I searched all of the Wizard's site (which I have used as an impeccable and incredibly valuable resource for YEARS -- fantastic work ALL who are involved) and can't find any information.

I have a simple question, but I failed to keep it short, so in short form, here it is in the next paragraph, with additional information following:

What is the (verifiable, if that's even possible) relationship between "fun play" and "real play" (in terms of the algorithms that deal the cards) for your average reputable online casino (e.g. Bodog), in terms of blackjack? That is, what kind of assurance do we have (if any) that the algorithms involved are identical between "fun play" and "real play," or do we even have that assurance at all? I am a 20+ year IT professional, so any technical references are appreciated.

I have been playing blackjack for about 8 years, just over two years regularly, between 3-8 days per month in Atlantic City at the Borgata (that's my meatspace casino). I have no complaints there - I have my ups and downs just like anyone else. I've had wonderful nights, I've had nights where I've lost thousands in <1 hour. Fine. But it seems to even out.

Lately (last year or so) I've been playing at Bodog. The first three months it was fine -- same ups and downs. One time I even got up to $3400 on a $300 deposit. Fine. It's the same thing I expect at any meatspace casino (well, fine, I don't _expect_ the above, but it's the kind of fluctuation that happens).

But lately, it seems like the number of hands I win with "play money" (comparing "amounts" is not what I set out to do) is on a much higher order than with "real money."

I'm not bitter, and I continue to play with them, because it's not at a place where I really care - I am not one of those who bets money he can't lose. It just seems odd, especially compared to the first three months I played, where the two algorithms seemed fairly equivalent.

I play several hours a night, so over the course of 6+ months, it's really changed, at least in my perception.

I am not asking for any kind of statistical analysis, merely some kind of understanding as to what various online casinos offer in terms of guarantees and how Bodog may or may not fit into the party line. I asked this question on several other forums and was led to believe that the software used by Bodog is pretty much the industry standard, but I've worked in IT for 20 years, long enough to know that "industry standard" is a phrase that should strike more horror than relief.

Sorry for the lengthy first post - thanks for any information!

-BB

i think it would take millions of hands to detect any real patterns or anomalies between 'real' or 'play' hands.

of course it is only natural to wonder if online casinos use bait and switch tactics to lure in players by making their 'play' games a little more 'loose' with their returns. but - technically - there SHOULD be no difference between the two. they both SHOULD be using the same random number generators.

please keep in mind that it is one of the oldest gambler's fallacies to believe that one casino or table is 'luckier' than another - simply because streaks APPEAR to favor one over the other. but that is just simple mathematics playing games with our heads. streaks happen - and it has nothing to do with the luck rabbit's foot in your pocket - or cheating.

Of course every online casino will say they play fairly in all games. Given the lack of regulation, you have to take them at their word. If you want to prove they are not playing fairly, then gather some evidence. Note how I proved that the Elka/Oyster casinos were letting players win in roulette in free play mode. If you're not sure how a casino might be cheating in blackjack, then flat bet, and note your net win and total hands played. No approximating, and use perfect basic strategy. It may take a huge sample size to prove a slight case of cheating.

However, in my opinion, all the major Internet casinos play fairly. It would be horrible business not to. There is plenty of money to be made with the natural house edge. Yet everybody gets accused of cheating. I attribute it to selective memory. I don't know if these rumors still persist, but it used to be commonly (and incorrectly) believed that Microgaming had a "take down" mode in blackjack, and RTG blackjack was programmed like a slot machine. If you want to find actual cheating, your odds are better with low-budget software.

Quote: Wizard

However, in my opinion, all the major Internet casinos play fairly. It would be horrible business not to. There is plenty of money to be made with the natural house edge. Yet everybody gets accused of cheating. I attribute it to selective memory. I don't know if these rumors still persist, but it used to be commonly (and incorrectly) believed that Microgaming had a "take down" mode in blackjack, and RTG blackjack was programmed like a slot machine. If you want to find actual cheating, your odds are better with low-budget software.

Michael, if we turn the argument on its head, why wouldn't online casinos cheat? They are not subject to regulation, and you said yourself that it would take thousands of hands to prove a slight cheat. The online casinos are not there to provide an enjoyable gaming experience... they are there to take your money. Certainly, before strict gaming regulations came in, you could find casinos in Nevada who regularly cheated customers, simply because they could. Why wouldn't this apply to an online casino? After all a 5% house edge is 10 times better than a .5% house edge.

In Blackjack, it would be fairly easy to program a computer to deal bad cards to a player that would cause them to lose an extra say, 1 hand of 20, turning a .5% game into a 5% game. The same would go in any card game, roulette or craps. The company can just claim bad luck and program its play to be within the low end of reasonableness. I imagine a complex program would even track the player's progress within a game itself and adjust the game accordingly so that your loss is at the maximum end of reasonableness.

That's why I won't play at any online casino. The software may be verified by the likes of a software consultant, but that doesn't stop them from putting a different set of code into its Production servers.

I was going to start a new thread but found this one. boymimbo asked the very question I was planning to ask; "why WOULDN'T the online casinos cheat? I've mentioned in other posts that I'm not by any means a seasoned gambler. I've been to Reno dozens of times but have played no more than maybe $200 tops in my entire life until last week when I decided to give online gaming a try. Interestingly enough, I was doing relatively well at first (playing baccarat) so I requested a payout equal to my initial investment plus fees. I waited until my account showed the payout to play again and after a quick but brief immediate gain, I went down, down, down. Twice I hit nine or ten straight losses, which is highly unlikely.

Ever play hearts on your Microsoft Windows computers? Ever notice how the computer ALWAYS tries to favor the lowest of the three computer players? I've been playing it for years and I don't know how they do it, but since it happens with extreme consistence it sure isn't a coincidence. To win you have to know how the computer cheats. It's not 4 against 4, it's 3 against one. My point is that if Microsoft will do it on a game designed strictly for personal entertainment, why would an online casino NOT do the same to just slightly bend the odds in their favor as boymimbo pointed out? Do insurance companies decide not to rip you off just because they already make insane profits? The same could be said of any number of large corporations who make HUGE profits, yet continue to find little ways to screw the little guy. I see no reason for an online casino, who have little to no regulation, NOT to do the very same thing. Cheat just a little, but watch the profits soar. It's just so easy for them to do. I mean if Diebold will brazenly fix voting machines, do you really think a casino of any kind has better scruples?

So, while I respect the Wizard's opinion in most things, in this one I think he is wrong. I can't prove it because I know for a fact that my loss COULD very possibly have been a fluke, but the coincidence was just a little too much for me to consider a second try. Maybe I'll move over to sports betting where they can't call the winner. At least I was smart enough to take my initial deposit back before losing what I had leftover.

Quote: boymimbo

Michael, if we turn the argument on its head, why wouldn't online casinos cheat?

Let's ignore the possibility that they might get caught. For example someone like me might expose them, or a disgruntled employee might go public with the information.

I submit that they would make more playing fairly than they would be cheating. For the same reason you can sheer a sheep many times, but slaughter it only once. A player who gets a lot of hours of play from his deposit, and sometimes at a profit, is more likely to return.

Quote: Wizard

Let's ignore the possibility that they might get caught. For example someone like me might expose them, or a disgruntled employee might go public with the information.

I submit that they would make more playing fairly than they would be cheating. For the same reason you can sheer a sheep many times, but slaughter it only once. A player who gets a lot of hours of play from his deposit, and sometimes at a profit, is more likely to return.

I mean no disrespect and your thoughts make sense, however the fact remains that they can cheat rather easily if they wanted to. Again, I turn to the example of a large corporation that made the electronic voting machines. They DID get caught, but what was the penalty? None that I'm aware of. The fox was guarding the henhouse. The thing is that they CAN find an algorithm that looks for patterns and change the software accordingly. It can be easy to make the non-cash side win slightly more to boost a fals confidence, and even let players win for a while with real money only to reverse the trend later with the flip of a switch. Even if an employee snitched I'm sure they could pay off the official who could do anything about it, especially since they are not based in the US. Happens all the time. It's called corruption. In my case, it's possible that they realized that I was going to be a liability since I immediately cashed out my gains, so they figured they would take back what was left and get rid of me just like an insurance company who knows who is a bad risk and they cancel your policy. They don't want you as a customer.

Since I'm quite sure they CAN do it, and catching them is next to impossible for all of us everyday players, then again, what is there to stop them? And if they do get caught, the fine (if there would ever be one) would likely be significantly less than what they make extra by doing that.

I will again state that this is my opinion only. I have no facts to go on and my own experience, while suspicious, is not proof by any means, which is why I have chosen not to name the website I played at.

Quote: OahuPlayer

"why WOULDN'T the online casinos cheat?

Because they don't have to. Whether it takes a player 4 hours or 40 hours to lose their bankroll doesn't really matter, especially online where the operating costs such as staffing are so low. IMO, people have a certain amount they are willing to risk and lose. Losing faster doesn't necessarily mean losing more. In fact the opposite is probably true when you consider the value of repeat customers.

I think it's a bad business decision for the larger online operators to not have a fair game. Now a small "fly by night" operator might be more inclined to have dishonest games because they may not count on repeat business.

Although I've played numerous online poker sites, Bodog is the only site that I've ever played casino games on. Michael's endorsement is why I've played there.

Mark

Quote: Wizard

Let's ignore the possibility that they might get caught. For example someone like me might expose them, or a disgruntled employee might go public with the information.

I submit that they would make more playing fairly than they would be cheating. For the same reason you can sheer a sheep many times, but slaughter it only once. A player who gets a lot of hours of play from his deposit, and sometimes at a profit, is more likely to return.

What somewhat weakens that argument is that the knowledge of the cheating sofftware could be restricted to a very few individuals, who could have ownership stakes in the company or some other strong disincentive to spill the beans, like being looked up by goons working for the Great Guava or whatever they call the president of Sand Crab Island, where the website lives.

It's true up to a point that people who play against a lower house edge are more likely to return, but keep in mind that it wouldn't take very much of an incremental increase in the house edge to dramatically increase profits. Deal a few less Aces to players in your six-deck BJ game and you can double or triple the house edge--and who could ever tell?

Plus, let's take the case of the disgruntled whistle-blower. He names Whoopie Doo Casino as fraudulent. Who's going to believe him? What evidence will he have? What would be his incentive to risk his life by speaking out? And to whom would he speak out? Would he have any credibility? And how could anyone impose sanctions, public or private, against such a company? You can't even find out where they ARE, much less have any recourse against them.

And let's say that, against all odds, they a) are detected b) sanctioned c) punished d) shut down. They would still keep all the money they had won (it would be safely out of reach, of course), and thirty days later they would resurface as Hot Diggity Dog Casino, this time sited in the Republic of Palm Frond.

I suppose this is possible, except perhaps with live online casinos. There, they change out the decks about every twelve hours and they are spread out for the players' inspection. Also, I have never seen them remove a shoe from a table, although they could accomplish this by blacking out the video feed for a few minutes. Thus it is important to continually watch the feed for any sign that the shoes have been moved or changed.

And I have seen enough negative shoes and shoes spitting out so many Aces they became seriously depleted. They are probably not removing money cards. And I have seen my share of shoes with a high count that suddenly started spitting out money cards with everyone at the table winning. I have won on shoes that went negative and lost on shoes that went positive. I have had monster shoes that made me a lot of money and shoes from hell where the dealer couldn't bust.

I did encounter an instance of what I call "soft cheating" though, on the BetPhoenix site. They use eight decks and sometimes cut less than one deck off. This time the dealer cut the shoe at less than two decks. For the first three decks of play, the shoe was generally neutral and I bet the minimum. Then the shoe went + on one hand. I raised my bet from one unit to 4 and won. On the next round, the shoe went negative so I dropped my bet to one unit. I lost that hand. At the end of this round, the shoe was positive again so I bet accordingly and received a blackjack. These two wins put me comfortably ahead at this point.

Then a very curious thing happened. The video feed went blank for a while. This happens quite often on this site. When the video feed came back, I had not missed a round, but the cut card had been moved up at least one deck! They even left it sticking up so all the players could see that it had been moved. I couldn't believe my eyes and haven't played the site since.

Wizard, does this constitute a form of cheating? After all they did not try to conceal what they had done. I can just see a pit boss trying to pull this off in a real as opposed to virtual casino: "Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen, but we suspect card counting at this table so we are resetting the cut card." If this happened in a Vegas casino the players would resort to Second Amendment remedies.

BetPhoenix live online blackjack is a dreadfully slow game with an even more agonizingly long shuffle. It takes 1 1/2 to 2 hours to cycle through a shoe and shuffle. It is an 8 deck game with S17, DAS, DD first two. So the rules are fair. They often cut less than two decks off but this can change quickly if they suspect counting. Everyone plays the same hand. The cards are 7" x 5" and have a white border to discourage second dealing. But I can't recommend this site anymore!