EV of online deposits in now closed web sites

Assume I have 100,000 dollars on account in one of the now closed web poker sites. I am willing to sell the rights to that money to you. What % do you think is a fair value. My vote is around 20%, as I would probably take 20,000.

I voted over 70%. The closest thing I can think of is the Neteller case, where US players eventually got their money, although it took 3-4 months.

Quote: SOOPOO

Assume I have 100,000 dollars on account in one of the now closed web poker sites. I am willing to sell the rights to that money to you. What % do you think is a fair value. My vote is around 20%, as I would probably take 20,000.

I think Durrrr was offering soemthing like 93% yesterday.

Quote: JimMorrison

I think Durrrr was offering soemthing like 93% yesterday.

I miss Dwan, he's not on High Stakes anymore.

Quote: EvenBob

In the Neteller case, no money was released until the case was settled. It was a much smaller case than this one. They're talking billions of dollars and people going to prison. Business Insider says:

"According to the indictments, the Justice Department froze about 75 bank accounts belonging to the three websites. The exact amount of money in each account and who that money actually belongs to is not known at this time. It will probably take a thorough accounting of each company's records to know exactly where it came from and where it should be allocated....So once the criminal and civil cases are resolved and all the accounting is sorted out, players will likely be able to get their money back.. but that could be a long, long time from now."

They're dealing with organized crime here, it could take a decade. Who knows..

It could take a decade but I don't think it will. They're going to settle. First off the principals involved aren't going to step foot in the United States to face trial. Second, DOJ has settled with Neteller and Party and will be looking for a settlement here also. The people going to prison will be the guys who were actually arrested, they were the ones setting up payment processors, false bank accounts, etc. FTP and Stars are going to settle this within a year I'd guess. They won't return to the US, they'll pay a massive fine and they'll refund US players money. They'll also continue to operate outside the US. IMO online poker is going to get legalized now, most likely within 2 1/2 years. Stars and Tilt won't get licensed initially but if they settle this they could eventually be allowed to do business in the US. Of course Caesars, MGM, Wynn etc will already be the dominant sites by then.

Quote: EvenBob

They're dealing with organized crime here, it could take a decade. Who knows..

They certainly are. And since said organized crime currently has a substantial budget deficit, it's hard to expect it to just let go of the seized accounts without taking a chunk out. At best, accounts are going to be reviewed, taxed, and only after a lot of red tape will the most persistent holders get their money.

What's worse, when organized crime is changing the godfather every 4 or 8 years, things become even less predictable.

Quote: P90

They certainly are. And since said organized crime currently has a substantial budget deficit, it's hard to expect it to just let go of the seized accounts without taking a chunk out. At best, accounts are going to be reviewed, taxed, and only after a lot of red tape will the most persistent holders get their money.

What's worse, when organized crime is changing the godfather every 4 or 8 years, things become even less predictable.

I like that P90! ;)

Quote: JimMorrison

It could take a decade but I don't think it will. They're going to settle.

Could take awhile..

Quote: EvenBob

Really? Whats their incentive for settling? Again, we're dealing with very nasty people here, with organized crime. Does that type usually settle when they don't have to? Do you have any concept how much $3,000,000,000 is?

I replied to this in the other thread already.

And now terms like organized crime are being thrown around which may be technically accurate but in the eyes of most people organized crime is mafia related. There are no known mob connections here, no triads involved, nothing with the cartels. Organized crime cases generally have RICO charges and none of those here either. I think it's fear mongering to start tossing about terms like that. And you don't seem to get the point that the money has been seized already, that makes any type of people more willing to settle.

Quote: JimMorrison

I replied to this in the other thread already.

.

Never mind.

Quote: EvenBob

Who else launders money and bribes banks to break laws? Who ran Vegas before it was cleaned up? Who do you think runs online casinos, the Boy Scouts?

Lots of people launder money and commit bank fraud. As for who ran Vegas, I think that is well documented. It's not documented at all that the mafia has had any part in online poker. Now with online casinos, sure some are mobbed up just like sportsbooks. But not most of the larger ones, most of those are pretty legit as far as paying and presenting a fair game.

Pokerstars has 140,000 cash players on their site as we speak. I asked before on one of the other threads about exactly which accounts were hit but they are far from shut down. I assume these players are depositing money as we speak as well. If they are not able to withdraw it would likely be known to the players in the rest of the world already. They will do what ever any other prudent company of their size would do to protect their interests and what they consider makes sense for the size of the US market. When I first started playing Stars the majority of the players were American. For the last couple of years there was seldom more than 1 or 2 American players and sometime none. 1 or 2 players per table

Quote: kenarman

Pokerstars has 140,000 cash players on their site as we speak. I asked before on one of the other threads about exactly which accounts were hit but they are far from shut down. I assume these players are depositing money as we speak as well. If they are not able to withdraw it would likely be known to the players in the rest of the world already. They will do what ever any other prudent company of their size would do to protect their interests and what they consider makes sense for the size of the US market. When I first started playing Stars the majority of the players were American. For the last couple of years there was seldom more than 1 or 2 American players and sometime none.

I can confirm that Stars processed cashouts last night to Australian accounts. Money was in Neteller within minutes.

I guess I need to clarify my poll. I only meant to include accounts held by US citizens.

Quote: P90

They certainly are. And since said organized crime currently has a substantial budget deficit, it's hard to expect it to just let go of the seized accounts without taking a chunk out. At best, accounts are going to be reviewed, taxed, and only after a lot of red tape will the most persistent holders get their money.

What's worse, when organized crime is changing the godfather every 4 or 8 years, things become even less predictable.

Awesomely put, dude!!!!!

Quote: JimMorrison

It's not documented at all that the mafia has had any part in online poker.

True enough.

Quote: EvenBob

You seem to think all organized crime is Mafia related. They're small potatoes now. Russian organized crime is the big daddy now, and they're far worse than the old Mafia was. You have unregulated casinos operating out of god knows where, and you think its all on the up and up? Even the ones that look legit have ties that nobody knows about. Whenever you have this much money changing hands, and gambling is involved, organized crime is always in it up to their eyebrows.

No, as I stated in the other thread when people hear organized crime they think mafia (Italian and Russian both), triads, cartels, etc. So throwing around that term is fanning the flames. Online casinos are a different ballgame altogether. While many of them are on the up and up, I've said many times that yes I'm sure many of them are also mobbed up. We're talking online poker here not casinos.

Speaking of flames, its cold in here, I light the fireplace..

Quote: EvenBob

Who cares what people think when they hear the words? Are we supposed to sugar coat the truth? I guess there's a lot of flame fanning going on, I've been reading about organized crimes links to online gambling for years. Why do you think they outlawed it in this country? It certainly wasn't just for the reasons they named.

Yeah..okay...I can see that you can't be reasoned with so I'm done with this. LOL hope you don't run out of tinfoil.

Quote: JimMorrison

Yeah..okay...I can see that you can't be reasoned with so .

Talk about somebody with their head in the sand...

Quote: EvenBob

Talk about somebody with their head in the sand...

Yup, that's me. I'm the one living this shit, profiting off of it etc. Sorry to contradict the conspiracy crowd. What was I ever thinking?

If anyone wants to see the actual government press release it's here http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/April11/scheinbergetalindictmentpr.pdf The only charges are all related to the banking issues. The money laundering is in relation to the fact the feds claim (probably true) that they tried to hide the fact payments were coming from their poker sites. So the laundrying charges were incurred trying to get payments to their customers which sounds like what most criminals do, incurring possible personal risk to make sure they honoured their committments.

Quote: kenarman

incurring possible personal risk to make sure they honoured their committments.

Thats funny..

Quote: JimMorrison

Yup, that's me. I'm the one living this shit, profiting off of it etc. Sorry to contradict the conspiracy crowd. What was I ever thinking?

I, for one, totally agree with you.

Quote: JimMorrison

Yup, that's me. I'm the one living this shit, profiting off of it etc.

Don't you live in Vegas?

I also voted >70%.

So hard to know which thread to comment/reply on.

FWIW (and probably not very much because nobody here is likely to know me, except Jim and Mike) but I can back up Jim Morrison on just about everything he has posted on this matter across several threads for he speaks from many years of actual experience and his experiences mirror mine in almost every regard.

We didn't just live the shit of online casino play, we lived the shit of dealing with likely non-payment, for whatever reason, especially after the 2006 Neteller arrests. A risk assessment (ie, playing at regulated and reputable organisations) ensured we got paid far more often than not. And, like Jim, I believe it is far more likely than not that US players will be paid whilst the entities concerned will bear the fines and other consequences.

Quote: EvenBob

Don't you live in Vegas?

WTF has that got to do with his online gambling activities?

Quote: drw

WTF has that got to do with his online gambling activities?

WTF is it to you?

Quote: EvenBob

WTF is it to you?

uh you brought up where he lives, Einstein.

Quote: drw

WTF has that got to do with his online gambling activities?

Good point

For what it's worth, I've been playing FT and PS for years and never had an issue getting paid out. I was just sent the following from PS:

As you may have heard, due to recent developments in the USA, we had to make changes to our website address. We have moved the PokerStars website to www.pokerstars.eu. Our Support email address has also moved to support@pokerstars.eu.

These developments do not have any impact on your ability to play real money games and tourneys on PokerStars - it is business as usual for all players outside the USA. Sit & Go's, Multi-Table Tourneys and cash ring games at all stakes and limit types are running normally. You can rest assured that player balances are safe.

If you have any further questions, please contact us at support@pokerstars.eu. In the meantime, please continue to enjoy playing our games! We thank you for choosing PokerStars.

I also received a similar notice from FTP:

Unfortunately, due to recent legal developments in the United States, Full Tilt Poker is currently unable to facilitate ‘real money’ play from players based there. This restriction solely affects players in the United States. For players in the rest of the world, play continues as normal and no such restrictions apply.

Please rest assured that all funds remain safe and secure and our technical and support teams are on hand to resolve any additional issues.

One such issue being addressed is the automatic software update; if you are experiencing any difficulty updating your game software we recommend installing the latest version of the game by visiting http://www.fulltiltpoker.co.uk/ and clicking the red ‘Play Now’ button.

We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience caused by the disruption to our .com website and support email addresses.

Please contact support@fulltiltpoker.co.uk with any queries not addressed above - we are working hard to resolve a large volume of queries in a timely manner and appreciate your patience in this regard.

Thank you again for your understanding,

Full Tilt Poker

I've never been bothered with all of the US laws and threats of a shutdown. Granted, this is certainly a different situation and much more potentially damaging but I don't put much stock in it. I'll make a cash out request for $500 and let you know if I get paid.

I've read in 2 forums that PS checks bounced Friday. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Quote: EvenBob

I've read in 2 forums that PS checks bounced Friday. Tomorrow should be interesting.

That's been an occasional problem with Stars and Tilt for a year or two now. I heard a lot bounced in the last week and any check that is out there right now is sure to bounce.

Seems like time I read a post on 2 plus 2 or similar forum about somebody spending weeks or months to get his money from poker stars or full tilt, there are 10 or more replies saying GEE I always get mine Ok, just be patient. How the hell do these fools think they are gonna get paid now ? It's like going to the cops and saying your coke dealer shorted you on the change from your $100 dollar bill. What part of illegal did you not understand ???

"Please be assured player balances are safe," PokerStars said in a brief statement posted on the company's free-to-play website. "There is no cause for concern. For all customers outside the U.S. it is business as usual."

No concern at all. Unless you live in the U.S, it appears

Quote: buzzpaff

No concern at all. Unless you live in the U.S, it appears

"Thus far, the issue of allowing Americans to recover their money from online poker sites has not been addressed by US attorneys. However, with the sites being classified as illegal gambling, it’s likely that returning winnings to players will not be a priority from their point of view."

Quote: JimMorrison

That's been an occasional problem with Stars and Tilt for a year or two now. I heard a lot bounced in the last week and any check that is out there right now is sure to bounce.

For a year or two now? I cannot imagine any reputable company sending out a check that bounces during the course of regular business. Maybe I am naive, but I can't imagine my refund check from IBM or Dell bouncing. I'm sure the constables on the Isle of Man are ready to process all the complaints from US players wanting their money back. Reading the messages from the poker sites, it sounds like they are saying we are open for the rest of the world now, but you Americans are out of luck. I am interested to see what happens with Nightfly's request, assuming Nightfly is a US citizen.

Quote: SOOPOO

For a year or two now? I cannot imagine any reputable company sending out a check that bounces during the course of regular business. Maybe I am naive, but I can't imagine my refund check from IBM or Dell bouncing. I'm sure the constables on the Isle of Man are ready to process all the complaints from US players wanting their money back. Reading the messages from the poker sites, it sounds like they are saying we are open for the rest of the world now, but you Americans are out of luck. I am interested to see what happens with Nightfly's request, assuming Nightfly is a US citizen.

Not defending them but at the same time I think most players realize it's not the sites fault. Checks have bounced in the past only when bank accounts were shut down against the site's wishes. I think I've had maybe two bounced checks and both times all fees were paid plus extra money was given to make up for the inconvenience. And yes for now Americans are out of luck, due to the actions of their government. Do you realize it would be next to impossible for Americans to be paid right now? Any bank account they draw a check on risks being frozen before the player even receives the check causing it to bounce. Bank wires are spotty since they've been refused before, still it's probably the best option. However just like the Neteller situation in 2006, the sites are going to have to wait until this is resolved and the US Government says they can pay players.

Just a brief history of how players used to get their money offline. Pre-2006 it was so easy, you could get the money sent right to you with no problems. Or better yet use your Neteller ATM card and get a max of $2000 a day per card from any ATM. I know myself and many players who carried several cards and the biggest problem was timing the 24 hour cycle to get the max amount of money offline from each. Then Senator Frist tried to become President by attaching UIGEA to the Port Security Bill. All you guys who are so excited because this "illegal" activity has come to an end, I hope you realize that the legislation was passed late at night as a rider to a security bill protecting the ports. It wasn't debated and didn't get an up or down vote. Frist snuck it in.

After UIGEA the execs of Neteller were arrested and everyone freaked out. Eventually everyone got paid but it was never the same again. Checks would be sent out and they were cashable and a lot of people like myself got ePassporte cards which were ATM cards that you could cash out to from poker sites. Only problem was the limit was $500 a day, really sucks when you're used to $2000 a day. Still with enough cards it worked.

This went on for some time then finally Treasury laid out regulations to the banks on how to enforce UIGEA. This is when the problems with credit cards and bank accounts started. ePassporte was forced out of the US around this time also. There were still a few ewallets you could use but nothing with an ATM card. Back to getting checks or bankwires which sucked. Then about three years ago PokerStars started sending cashouts via MoneyGram. You could walk into Walmart and walk out with a max of $2,000 per day. Biggest problem was driving to enough Walmarts thru the week so they didn't start getting suspicious of you always receiving that much cash. The idiots at 2+2 who can never keep their mouth shut about anything had to talk nonstop about how great MoneyGram's were. Guess what? They didn't last thru the summer before that avenue was shutdown. Back to checks and bankwires but at this point the sites made wires easier to get.

It's been like that ever since. Periodically a lot of accounts get closed and some checks bounce, again they're always made up and then some but still frustrating. Personally I never deposited a check at this point unless it was from a bank that didn't have a branch in Vegas, it was easier to go to Wells Fargo or wherever and get cash and know that the check had cleared. This system worked pretty well until last week and now it's all over for the time being.

As to everyone who gets hysterical about why players would put up with this, well they do because of the simple fact that it was good money. Players who routinely cash out are obviously winning players. Winning poker players in my opinion tend to be smarter than the average joe, as evidenced in the posts in these threads. You put up with a little inconvenience because it was better than grinding out all day at Bellagio or Aria.

What's next? It will never be the same again but nothing ever is. I predict legalization within two years. It won't be Stars or Tilt but I don't care who owns the site as long as the money is good.

Quote: JimMorrison

I predict legalization within two years. It won't be Stars or Tilt

And I predict thats about when you'll get your money out of them..

Quote: EvenBob

And I predict thats about when you'll get your money out of them..

Possibly but I'd be surprised if it took longer than a year.

Quote: Altut

Come on, MoneyGrams, WalMarts, ATM cards etc.? Is it really worth it having to scramble around messing with those type tools of the less fortunate just to be able to play casino games online? I never had any idea what a massive waste of time it all was.

Question: Since you expect to get some money back in a few years, what interest rate do FT & the others pay? I'm trying to figure out if I should have put my money into those stand-up places instead of my bank.

It will be the standard "vig" on any mob transaction. GET OUTTA HERE !

Quote: JimMorrison

Just a brief history of how players used to get their money offline. Pre-2006 it was so easy, you could get the money sent right to you with no problems. Or better yet use your Neteller ATM card and get a max of $2000 a day per card from any ATM. I know myself and many players who carried several cards and the biggest problem was timing the 24 hour cycle to get the max amount of money offline from each. Then Senator Frist tried to become President by attaching UIGEA to the Port Security Bill. All you guys who are so excited because this "illegal" activity has come to an end, I hope you realize that the legislation was passed late at night as a rider to a security bill protecting the ports. It wasn't debated and didn't get an up or down vote. Frist snuck it in.

After UIGEA the execs of Neteller were arrested and everyone freaked out. Eventually everyone got paid but it was never the same again. Checks would be sent out and they were cashable and a lot of people like myself got ePassporte cards which were ATM cards that you could cash out to from poker sites. Only problem was the limit was $500 a day, really sucks when you're used to $2000 a day. Still with enough cards it worked.

This went on for some time then finally Treasury laid out regulations to the banks on how to enforce UIGEA. This is when the problems with credit cards and bank accounts started. ePassporte was forced out of the US around this time also. There were still a few ewallets you could use but nothing with an ATM card. Back to getting checks or bankwires which sucked. Then about three years ago PokerStars started sending cashouts via MoneyGram. You could walk into Walmart and walk out with a max of $2,000 per day. Biggest problem was driving to enough Walmarts thru the week so they didn't start getting suspicious of you always receiving that much cash. The idiots at 2+2 who can never keep their mouth shut about anything had to talk nonstop about how great MoneyGram's were. Guess what? They didn't last thru the summer before that avenue was shutdown. Back to checks and bankwires but at this point the sites made wires easier to get.

It's been like that ever since. Periodically a lot of accounts get closed and some checks bounce, again they're always made up and then some but still frustrating. Personally I never deposited a check at this point unless it was from a bank that didn't have a branch in Vegas, it was easier to go to Wells Fargo or wherever and get cash and know that the check had cleared. This system worked pretty well until last week and now it's all over for the time being.

As to everyone who gets hysterical about why players would put up with this, well they do because of the simple fact that it was good money. Players who routinely cash out are obviously winning players. Winning poker players in my opinion tend to be smarter than the average joe, as evidenced in the posts in these threads. You put up with a little inconvenience because it was better than grinding out all day at Bellagio or Aria.

What's next? It will never be the same again but nothing ever is. I predict legalization within two years. It won't be Stars or Tilt but I don't care who owns the site as long as the money is good.

This pretty much sums up the situation EXCEPT for the fact that I'm Canadian. I've never had any issues and I most likely never will. For those who seem to enjoy making fun of the situation and saying that anyone who has money in an online poker stite account is not very bright... knock yourself out. I'ts no skin off my nose and for those Americans who may or may not see their funds, they have no one to be angry with than their government - a bunch of petty, attention-seeking, worn-out pieces of skin for the most part. For anyone who say online poker sites are crooked, how about having a look at the track history of the good ol' US of A government policies, both domestic and international.

I've not done anything illegal in my dealings with these sites because I'm Canadian and the US govt has no say over what I may do from my personal computer in my Canadian home. The US govt freezing an account holding my money is about as legal as them holding people at Gitmo without providing Miranda rights... they do things because they're the big bully on the block and they can get away with things... for so long. Then when everything settles down and rational thnking prevails, they generally put their tail between their legs and sheepishly admit fault... it's true what they say about ir being easier to ask for forgiveness than permission.

Americans have known (or should have known) that this could have happened at any time. I'ts happened before so I don't see why it's such a big surprise. I'll say this though, these sites will simply flourish by changing and evolving... they're here to stay and I say good for them... partly I suppose because it's good for me.

Quote: Altut

Come on, MoneyGrams, WalMarts, ATM cards etc.? Is it really worth it having to scramble around messing with those type tools of the less fortunate just to be able to play casino games online? I never had any idea what a massive waste of time it all was.

No, you misunderstand, so let me correct you here so you don't make the same foolish mistake again ::

People use those tools to take their profit FROM poker online where they have made a profit due to their ability to play poker better than other people. It's no more an inconvenience than having to fill out a w2g form in a casino. Actually, it was less so back when I used Neteller ATMs (though I was never hitting the daily withdrawal limits)

----

The interest rate on Full Tilt (and other online poker sites) is proportional to your ability to play poker. Those with lesser skills will find they have a negative interest rate.

----

And personally, I think it's crazy that the US gubbermint, in the land of the free, has the ability to mess with it's citizens ability to spend money on or off shore as much as it does. I thought such tactics would be part of an socialist country's actions. Like Canada, the UK or parts of Europe. Except it's not. And nore are citizens of those countries taxed on their gambling winnings.

Very odd.

Quote: thecesspit

I thought such tactics would be part of an socialist country's actions. Like Canada, the UK or parts of Europe

... or the United Socialist States of Obama.

I would pay 50%, and not accept less than 90%. When something similar hit NeTeller a few years ago, it took a few months, but eventually, I got my withdrawals. I expect something similar with PokerStars. I have only a bit of money there, but I have several Step 5 & 6's for this year's WSOP.

Quote: P90

... or the United Socialist States of Obama.

... Except the UIGEA was a Republican piece of nonsense... you know that right? This storm is little to do with the current administration. Obama's never added or removed a provision to tax it's citizens on gambling wins. I have no idea who brought it in.

Quote: Altut

I'm not of the belief that anyone other than huge mega-jackpot winners ever proft from playing at any of the online casinos.

Ah well, you can believe a falsehood if you want. Plenty of people believe the wrong thing. Doesn't stop the world from turning.

I made a profit on both online casino's and online poker. My profits aren't enough to trouble anyone's bottom line, but given the amount of time I spent on it, it was a tidy enough profit for a few evenings in the casino's, and a few hours a week on poker.

Course, I'm just another online unknown. Just as you are. I have the proof as well (I keep receipts), but that sort of thing is far too much hassle to upload and "prove" to a critic who knows so little that they wouldn't be able to examine the evidence by themselves. Besides, you don't really want to have any proof, and will claim it's faked, because a change in your world view would be far too much for you to handle.

Quote: Altut

I'm not of the belief that anyone other than huge mega-jackpot winners ever proft from playing at any of the online casinos.

My grandmother couldn't tell a poker game from roulette either, online or off. To the ignorant its all just casino gambling.

Quote: Altut

All they really do is promote addiction and make loners out of people who otherwise wouldn't be. Look at those who come on here and speak highly of them; do they seem like the life of the party to you?

I am attending a party this weekend and would like to hook up with the blonde in the red dress. Please please please tell me how to post on an online forum in order to transform into a super womanizing sex machine.

Quote: Altut

The only "proof" anyone has of these players winning anything is what they write on these forums as unknowns, and what some people tell other people.

That, and simple math. Still confused? You see when a $100 pot is settled, there will be someone winning $100 minus rake, and other player(s) losing a total of $100.

Quote: Altut

Hardly documented evidence, and the smart money says I'm right because it's gambling and it's online at totally unregulated entities. It's like me sending you a few thousand dollars after you promising to gamble it wisely for me and sending it all back to me. It may or may not happen.

If the word gambling (your definition of it) terrifies you so, what are you doing on a vegas/gambling website?

Quote: Altut

A true advantage player would never take such a chance.

Put a +EV game on bodog and tell me nobody on this forum is going to check it out.

If rational thought could be represented by a staircase, this poor soul would be the moron gasping for breath and puking all over the floor, stinking up the space for everyone before taking the emergency lift back down during the annual CN tower charity run.

That, and simple math. Still confused? You see when a $100 pot is settled, there will be someone winning $100 minus rake, and other player(s) losing a total of $100.

OH I SEE Only the winner pays the rake. So why worry about it. WOW what a concept !!