Any Aviator Crash Game Fans Here? Here's my "+EV" plan

I did a search for Aviator game before creating this post, but didn't see any matches. It's a Press Your Luck Multiplier Crash game, with infinite auto bet and cash out features.

I have been play testing it for 30+ hours. I tried several 3-4 hour sessions using Martingale, Fibonachi and a Flat $1 bet with a changing fractional multiplier. 1.1X, 1.25X, 1.33X, 1.5X, 1.66X, 2X and 3X. It took awhile to find a site with a welcome bonus that gave a 100 $0.15 spins and Bonus Match of 100%. Although it's a higher 40X Wager Requirement with a cap of $1.40 per bet. The up side is, the wagers count like slot machines at 100% value towards bonus requirement. This data helped form my plan to go forward with a plan of real cash.

Deposited $45 and engaged the built in auto bet and cash outs. It's humming in the background now.

I am using the Flat system of $0.10 with a 1.1X multiplier. With the auto bet feature its like smoking a whole cow, low and slow, minimal effort and supervision. This hopefully will grind off the 40X wager requirement. Ill be sure to update the progress here, as it crawls toward the goal.

Once my cash is unlocked I'll be switching to the Fibonachi Sequence. With the games Min at $0.10 and Max of $100 this allows for the following 16 step progression at the 3X Multiplier:

$0.10, $0.10, $0.20, $0.30, $0.50, $0.80, $1.30, $2.10, $3.40, $5.50, $8.90, $14.40, $23.30, $37.70, $61.00 and $98.70

I have observed over 5000 "spins" it had a streak ONCE of 14 fails in a row. With 15ish streaks ranging from 10-12 fails and 3 failing 13 times. Will the Law of Nature overcome The Law of Large Numbers? Find out tomorrow on the next episode of "As the Bankroll Burns"

Here is a screen shot of Max bets to get the ball rolling.



Updates to follow.

That sounds interesting, "As the Bankroll Burns," was a brilliant play.

Any significant similarity to DK Rocket or High Striker?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/38093-draftkings-rocket/

https://wizardofodds.com/games/high-striker/

Quote: Dieter

Any significant similarity to DK Rocket or High Striker?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/38093-draftkings-rocket/

https://wizardofodds.com/games/high-striker/
link to original post

I didn’t even think that the probability of falling could be calculated in seconds

I couldn't find a demo copy of DK Rocket to play but, yes it seems like a clone.

Here is a demo copy to play for free:

https://templeofgames.com/game/aviator-demo-play-free

Quote: Krispy519

I have observed over 5000 "spins" it had a streak ONCE of 14 fails in a row. With 15ish streaks ranging from 10-12 fails and 3 failing 13 times. Will the Law of Nature overcome The Law of Large Numbers? Find out tomorrow on the next episode of "As the Bankroll Burns"
link to original post

Something's not passing the smell test.
Even if the game is fair, and there is a 2/3 chance of the plane crashing before reaching 3x, the probability of 14 crashes in a row is only about 1/292. It should happen far more than once in 5000 spins.

Some quick simulating shows that, with the 2% HE model (there is a 2% chance of the plane crashing immediately, and a 98% chance of a fair game), in a run of 5000 games, having fewer than two runs of 14 losses in a row at 3x happens about 1/90 of the time.

Quote: Krispy519

I did a search for Aviator game before creating this post, but didn't see any matches. It's a Press Your Luck Multiplier Crash game, with infinite auto bet and cash out features.

I used to do a lot of flight simulation but it started getting expensive buying all the different control panels. I probably have close to two thousand flight hours on the simulators. I only have about 20 hours of pilot in command in real airplanes.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Krispy519

I have observed over 5000 "spins" it had a streak ONCE of 14 fails in a row. With 15ish streaks ranging from 10-12 fails and 3 failing 13 times. Will the Law of Nature overcome The Law of Large Numbers? Find out tomorrow on the next episode of "As the Bankroll Burns"
link to original post

Something's not passing the smell test.
Even if the game is fair, and there is a 2/3 chance of the plane crashing before reaching 3x, the probability of 14 crashes in a row is only about 1/292. It should happen far more than once in 5000 spins.

Some quick simulating shows that, with the 2% HE model (there is a 2% chance of the plane crashing immediately, and a 98% chance of a fair game), in a run of 5000 games, having fewer than two runs of 14 losses in a row at 3x happens about 1/90 of the time.
link to original post

I totally agree with you that it seems "stinky". I just finished a 2 hour session using the Fibonachi Sequence starting at $0.10. I had to dump my bonus to unlock my bankroll from the max $1.40 bet. At the end of 2 hours play, I saw 3 fails of 11 times at the $8.90 bet, it never failed 12 times in a row. IF you can stay inside winning by the 12th bet of $14.40 then your average win per spin is ~$0.1543.

I profited $39.80, giving me an average of ~260 wins in the 2 hours. The next 2 hour trial, I have made a stat sheet to record:
How many total spins
Where on the sequence they won.

Tonight's mission is find a casino that offers the game but has better loyalty rewards. Upping my deposit to $260.00 so I can survive a 15 fails streak.

At $20 an hour it's not beneath me, and a fun little project i haven't found explored anywhere.

More updates to follow.

UPDATE:

I had to cancel my "Bonus Offer" as it was limited to $1.40 max bet. This left me just $30.94 of my original $50.00 deposit. Now it was time to gamble and make my money back. Using the Fibonachi Sequence was going to be fragile with such a low bankroll but that's what had to be risked.

On my road to recovery, the first close call was 20 minutes in. I only had enough to survive a streak of 11 losses in a row and it happened. The 12th bet wasn't even the full amount at just $12.35 instead of the $14.40 suggested. Luckily it won keeping me alive to weather the storm further. Another 30 minutes in and a streak of 11 happened again, but with the Law of Nature on my side the 12th spin was a win. Many smaller streaks of 7-9 appeared until I stopped the 2 hour session back in the black with $76.84 leaving me with a profit of $26.84.

With time to reflect on the experience I learned a few things. The next attempt would need a bankroll of $260 to cover a streak of 15 losses (or 14 losses with the aggressive model). To help insure against a catastrophic loss, I have begun a search for an online casino that offers Aviator and has some amount of % of it's bets to work down the wager requirement.

During this 9 hour adventure of reading terms and questioning each casinos online help, I had 3 different versions of aviator running in the background. Each with its own random results. About every 10 minutes i would scan through their data. Unsure of exactly of how many spins I had examined but with an average of ~130 spins an hour for each instance it would be ~3500 total. I witnessed 2 streaks of 14 losses. No streaks of 15. At an average of $20 an hour it would need to go 13 hours to have enough profit to absorb a loss streak of 16.

One more testing session in demo mode was needed to bolster my confidence. I the first half was using the Fibonachi Sequence starting with $0.10, $0.10, $0.20, $0.30, $0.50 ... etc This gave an average of ~$22 an hour. No serious streaks appeared. This prompted a more aggressive test of using the sequence $0.10, $0.20, $0.30, $0.50 ... etc. By removing one of the $0.10 initial bets the profit curve jumped ~61.111%, giving me an average of ~$36.00 an hour. This does come at the cost of only surviving a streak of 14 instead of 15 but Daddy needs a new pair of mouse pads.

As I continue my hunt today, I'll be trying to master the aggressive version using both bet controls to increase the profit per hour. If a streak starts to form, I'll put one side on pause to allow my bankroll to still outlast 14 losses.

Where the episode closes today is: Still on the hunt for an online casino that has any welcome/first deposit reward for playing Aviator.

I noticed you mentioned a 40x rollover... is that D+B?

Someone said there's a 2% hold?

What are your chances of busting out and not having to finish the wagering requirements? Assuming it's D+B there's no + EV to be had unless you are busting out frequently enough to shed the wagering requirements.

Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed you mentioned a 40x rollover... is that D+B?

Someone said there's a 2% hold?

What are your chances of busting out and not having to finish the wagering requirements? Assuming it's D+B there's no + EV to be had unless you are busting out frequently enough to shed the wagering requirements.
link to original post

Yes 40X rollover was on total . I believe what the 2% was talking about is in the game info there is a 2% immediate crash and you can't wager that low. Basically a No One wins this round chance.

It may have been possible to satisfy the wager requirement IF i played a very fragile version of fibonachi, with only 7 bets that would fit under the max bet limit of $1.40. I chose to dump the promo and unlock my deposit so I could have enough bankroll left to survive a bad streak. Lucklily on my recovery I won twice on my last chance or bust. I exited up ~$26 from the 50 had deposited. I did a more elaborate description of the process in a reply to orginal post.

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed you mentioned a 40x rollover... is that D+B?

Someone said there's a 2% hold?

What are your chances of busting out and not having to finish the wagering requirements? Assuming it's D+B there's no + EV to be had unless you are busting out frequently enough to shed the wagering requirements.
link to original post

Yes 40X rollover was on total . I believe what the 2% was talking about is in the game info there is a 2% immediate crash and you can't wager that low. Basically a No One wins this round chance.

It may have been possible to satisfy the wager requirement IF i played a very fragile version of fibonachi, with only 7 bets that would fit under the max bet limit of $1.40. I chose to dump the promo and unlock my deposit so I could have enough bankroll left to survive a bad streak. Lucklily on my recovery I won twice on my last chance or bust. I exited up ~$26 from the 50 had deposited. I did a more elaborate description of the process in a reply to orginal post.
link to original post

Do you know what the HA is on the game? From my research, I'm getting back -3% even worse than I thought. I think it would be a stretch to consider this situation (40xD+B -3%) +EV. Are there any cash-out or transaction fees?

I suppose under the right conditions where you bust out fast most of the time while going for huge wins, and therefore, not having to finish the wagering requirements most of the time, you might have an advantage. In that situation, you are losing the majority of the time while looking for that big win and then completing the waiting requirements for that deposit and bonus. Casinos never say anything while you're losing. You could be breaking the rules and they probably won't say anything as long as you were losing. But suddenly, you win big and they decide not to pay for some reason.

Have you checked all the terms and conditions carefully? Some online casinos have rules against using betting systems.

If you add in the possibility of not getting paid, I just don't see a path to worthwhile +EV.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed you mentioned a 40x rollover... is that D+B?

Someone said there's a 2% hold?

What are your chances of busting out and not having to finish the wagering requirements? Assuming it's D+B there's no + EV to be had unless you are busting out frequently enough to shed the wagering requirements.
link to original post

Yes 40X rollover was on total . I believe what the 2% was talking about is in the game info there is a 2% immediate crash and you can't wager that low. Basically a No One wins this round chance.

It may have been possible to satisfy the wager requirement IF i played a very fragile version of fibonachi, with only 7 bets that would fit under the max bet limit of $1.40. I chose to dump the promo and unlock my deposit so I could have enough bankroll left to survive a bad streak. Lucklily on my recovery I won twice on my last chance or bust. I exited up ~$26 from the 50 had deposited. I did a more elaborate description of the process in a reply to orginal post.
link to original post

Do you know what the HA is on the game? From my research, I'm getting back -3% even worse than I thought. I think it would be a stretch to consider this situation (40xD+B -3%) +EV. Are there any cash-out or transaction fees?

I suppose under the right conditions where you bust out fast most of the time while going for huge wins, and therefore, not having to finish the wagering requirements most of the time, you might have an advantage. In that situation, you are losing the majority of the time while looking for that big win and then completing the waiting requirements for that deposit and bonus. Casinos never say anything while you're losing. You could be breaking the rules and they probably won't say anything as long as you were losing. But suddenly, you win big and they decide not to pay for some reason.

Have you checked all the terms and conditions carefully? Some online casinos have rules against using betting systems.

If you add in the possibility of not getting paid, I just don't see a path to worthwhile +EV.
link to original post

Aviator HA in Rules description is 3%

Transaction fees will vary depending on casino and payment type. I paid $1.50 to make a deposit in my case.

The common problem with trying to earn the bonus match is your bet is capped at a low value making Fibonachi very fragile. Plus accepting any bonus opens you to further terms that open doors for the casino to deny you.

I have read more terms & conditions over the last 3 days than sleeping. Out of 12ish sites that seemed possible, none allowed wager requirements for playing Aviator. Most of which I had 10-30 minute debates with live chat agents. The "systems" banned I commonly see in terms, is making low percentage loss bets like betting both red AND black on the same spin in roulette.

The advantage play comes from the Fibonachi grind, as the loss streaks longer than 12 are away more rare than the 3% HA would forecast. I know setting a bet at $0.10 and a cash out multiplier at 1.10% very slowly loses over time...about 3%.

The site below is where I'll be depositing my cash as they have a FREE promo every Sunday of free spins that don't limit your max bet. The only site I found that has any extra promo support for the game that doesn't handicap your max bet.

https://leon.bet/

You can play the game on demo mode there too. Best of luck.

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed you mentioned a 40x rollover... is that D+B?

Someone said there's a 2% hold?

What are your chances of busting out and not having to finish the wagering requirements? Assuming it's D+B there's no + EV to be had unless you are busting out frequently enough to shed the wagering requirements.
link to original post

Yes 40X rollover was on total . I believe what the 2% was talking about is in the game info there is a 2% immediate crash and you can't wager that low. Basically a No One wins this round chance.

It may have been possible to satisfy the wager requirement IF i played a very fragile version of fibonachi, with only 7 bets that would fit under the max bet limit of $1.40. I chose to dump the promo and unlock my deposit so I could have enough bankroll left to survive a bad streak. Lucklily on my recovery I won twice on my last chance or bust. I exited up ~$26 from the 50 had deposited. I did a more elaborate description of the process in a reply to orginal post.
link to original post

Do you know what the HA is on the game? From my research, I'm getting back -3% even worse than I thought. I think it would be a stretch to consider this situation (40xD+B -3%) +EV. Are there any cash-out or transaction fees?

I suppose under the right conditions where you bust out fast most of the time while going for huge wins, and therefore, not having to finish the wagering requirements most of the time, you might have an advantage. In that situation, you are losing the majority of the time while looking for that big win and then completing the waiting requirements for that deposit and bonus. Casinos never say anything while you're losing. You could be breaking the rules and they probably won't say anything as long as you were losing. But suddenly, you win big and they decide not to pay for some reason.

Have you checked all the terms and conditions carefully? Some online casinos have rules against using betting systems.

If you add in the possibility of not getting paid, I just don't see a path to worthwhile +EV.
link to original post

Aviator HA in Rules description is 3%

Transaction fees will vary depending on casino and payment type. I paid $1.50 to make a deposit in my case.

The common problem with trying to earn the bonus match is your bet is capped at a low value making Fibonachi very fragile. Plus accepting any bonus opens you to further terms that open doors for the casino to deny you.

I have read more terms & conditions over the last 3 days than sleeping. Out of 12ish sites that seemed possible, none allowed wager requirements for playing Aviator. Most of which I had 10-30 minute debates with live chat agents. The "systems" banned I commonly see in terms, is making low percentage loss bets like betting both red AND black on the same spin in roulette.

The advantage play comes from the Fibonachi grind, as the loss streaks longer than 12 are away more rare than the 3% HA would forecast. I know setting a bet at $0.10 and a cash out multiplier at 1.10% very slowly loses over time...about 3%.

The site below is where I'll be depositing my cash as they have a FREE promo every Sunday of free spins that don't limit your max bet. The only site I found that has any extra promo support for the game that doesn't handicap your max bet.


You can play the game on demo mode there too. Best of luck.
link to original post

theres the real kirspy

Quote: Krispy519

The advantage play comes from the Fibonachi grind, as the loss streaks longer than 12 are away more rare than the 3% HA would forecast.

NO IT DOESN'T.

Your welcome to show us the math.

Since this game has a 3% HA no betting system can overcome that.

Perhaps with bonuses you could gain an advantage

If there was an advantage to be had with deposits bonuses it would come from making the largest flat bets possible.

Let's do a test of real data. I am doing screen shots of 3 different sites. I'll cut and paste the data together and we'll find out just how random it is. Each shot gathers ~150 spins. I figure 5000 spins should be enough to forecast a decent idea?

Here is today's Update:

This is test has 2301 spins in it. Just over 5 hours across 3 different sites. I manually scanned the data to find the largest fails for the Fibonachi and how many crashes (a crash is immediate fail at 100% CAN'T win).

Unsure how well this will show to others after getting squished into a forum box, but if you want the original pic sent, just ask.

Across the 3 sites the Fails were:

1st Site - 806 Spins - One Fail at 14 - Crashes 30

2nd Site - 798 Spins - One Fail at 11 - Crashes 19

3rd Site - 697 Spins - One Fail at 15 - Crashes 24

I have the data for another ~3000 spins to count and paste together, but that's for tomorrow.

Today, Fibonachi 16 Sequence stands up a Winner! Although the Aggressive Fibonanchi 15 would have CRACKED. We'll see how it fairs in the next 3000+ spin test

Quote: Krispy519

Unsure how well this will show to others after getting squished into a forum box, but if you want the original pic sent, just ask.
link to original post

I would like to see the original - I am wondering how those numbers match against the reported 3% HE.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Krispy519

Unsure how well this will show to others after getting squished into a forum box, but if you want the original pic sent, just ask.
link to original post

I would like to see the original - I am wondering how those numbers match against the reported 3% HE.
link to original post

Well i have ~5000 spins in 2 tests. Just click links below and save to your drive. then open with a viewer that has a zoom feature to read them.

https://ibb.co/4KB6rb1
https://ibb.co/N6tCN7p

I believe the game has a 3% HE. I tested with real cash a static bet of $0.10 and a cash out of 1.1X to win $0.01. It lost about $5.00 an hour steadily for 4 hours.

This data it doesn't get anywhere near the average losing streaks that the calculated math predicts. It may be something to do with because the range of multiplier is so vast.

Recorded in there is a 13904%. The games auto max cashout multiplier is 100X. If you want to go for the jackpots you have to be playing manually.

I tried to do several live tests today but the game keep crashing every 20-30 mins. I'll look for a more stable site.

Using those two images you posted, I am getting an HE of about 3.7% when betting 1.1x, and 4.5% when betting 3x. That doesn't make sense if the game claims to have a fixed HE.

Now, maybe I am imagining things, or maybe there just aren't enough high results for the number to be accurate, but I am getting a player edge of about 2% if you play until 12.96x. The numbers look like they form a "sweet spot" around there, before going back down.

The HE is stated in the game rules as 3% BUT it doesn't go in streaks of low numbers as easily as it should. My math says:

100% minus HE of 3% then divide by 3 for the 3X multiplier gives as win rate of 32.3333% leaving the loss rate at 67.6666%

To calculate odds of losing streaks you take the loss % to the exponent that you want the streak of.

Example: 0.67666666 to the 15th = 0.0028551028 This projects the average to be ~14.275514 per 5000. Examine the data and you'll see it's a mere fraction of 14.2ish for losses 15 times in a row.

I have converted the screen shots with an OCR to text to make the following data files, linked here:

https://fastupload.io/FiC3ZRAszOKCXVs/file For test 1

https://fastupload.io/3L3ilPPS2aiaUF1/file For test 2

I hope this helps someone that has excel skills to better present the data and its oddities. I lack such knowledge.

The gambler cannot get advantages again the game, but if you collect enough statistics then using the comparison method you can choose a strategy in which you are likely to have a positive result at a certain distance.

If you provide the data in Excel or the text of the file in a column, I can do a comparative analysis for different x

Quote: Dobrij

The gambler cannot get advantages again the game, but if you collect enough statistics then using the comparison method you can choose a strategy in which you are likely to have a positive result at a certain distance.

If you provide the data in Excel or the text of the file in a column, I can do a comparative analysis for different x
link to original post

Thank you for offering to get involved. As I said, I don't know excel at all but did find a RTF to XLS converter. When I open them in excel I see numbers in columns, so looks like it worked. Here is the links below in XLS format:

https://fastupload.io/pjHolzLbWy3lQRh/file Test 1

https://fastupload.io/fl6LhWCZnWwJODv/file Test 2

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: Dobrij

The gambler cannot get advantages again the game, but if you collect enough statistics then using the comparison method you can choose a strategy in which you are likely to have a positive result at a certain distance.

If you provide the data in Excel or the text of the file in a column, I can do a comparative analysis for different x
link to original post

Thank you for offering to get involved. As I said, I don't know excel at all but did find a RTF to XLS converter. When I open them in excel I see numbers in columns, so looks like it worked. Here is the links below in XLS format:

https://fastupload.io/pjHolzLbWy3lQRh/file Test 1

https://fastupload.io/fl6LhWCZnWwJODv/file Test 2
link to original post

Data in this format is not suitable. There should be one value in each cell, or in a text file in a column.

Quote: Dobrij

Data in this format is not suitable. There should be one value in each cell, or in a text file in a column.

I did an OCR scan of the two files, but (a) I am not 100% certain that all of the values are correct, and (b) the order is not in the order in which they appear in the images:

http://www.thatdonsoftware.com/Aviator_Run_1.txt

http://www.thatdonsoftware.com/Aviator_Run_2.txt


link to original post

Quote: Dobrij

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: Dobrij

The gambler cannot get advantages again the game, but if you collect enough statistics then using the comparison method you can choose a strategy in which you are likely to have a positive result at a certain distance.

If you provide the data in Excel or the text of the file in a column, I can do a comparative analysis for different x
link to original post

Thank you for offering to get involved. As I said, I don't know excel at all but did find a RTF to XLS converter. When I open them in excel I see numbers in columns, so looks like it worked. Here is the links below in XLS format:

https://fastupload.io/pjHolzLbWy3lQRh/file Test 1

https://fastupload.io/fl6LhWCZnWwJODv/file Test 2
link to original post

Data in this format is not suitable. There should be one value in each cell, or in a text file in a column.
link to original post

Alas after 3 hours, I came up with moving the page width down so only 1 number per line fits. Then manually added <return> to each line. It is now a single column with one number on each line. Hope this helps.

https://fastupload.io/TxONBJYjhxYFVdt/file

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Dobrij

Data in this format is not suitable. There should be one value in each cell, or in a text file in a column.

I did an OCR scan of the two files, but (a) I am not 100% certain that all of the values are correct, and (b) the order is not in the order in which they appear in the images:

http://www.thatdonsoftware.com/Aviator_Run_1.txt

http://www.thatdonsoftware.com/Aviator_Run_2.txt


link to original post

link to original post

I entered the information you provided. And compared the graphs of the result if the player always bet on a different X (5352games)

The yellow graph is the player's result
The brown graph is the mathematical result of the game (based on -3%)

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: Dobrij

Quote: Krispy519

Quote: Dobrij

The gambler cannot get advantages again the game, but if you collect enough statistics then using the comparison method you can choose a strategy in which you are likely to have a positive result at a certain distance.

If you provide the data in Excel or the text of the file in a column, I can do a comparative analysis for different x
link to original post

Thank you for offering to get involved. As I said, I don't know excel at all but did find a RTF to XLS converter. When I open them in excel I see numbers in columns, so looks like it worked. Here is the links below in XLS format:

https://fastupload.io/pjHolzLbWy3lQRh/file Test 1

https://fastupload.io/fl6LhWCZnWwJODv/file Test 2
link to original post

Data in this format is not suitable. There should be one value in each cell, or in a text file in a column.
link to original post

Alas after 3 hours, I came up with moving the page width down so only 1 number per line fits. Then manually added <return> to each line. It is now a single column with one number on each line. Hope this helps.

https://fastupload.io/TxONBJYjhxYFVdt/file
link to original post

I entered the information you provided. And compared the graphs of the result if the player always bet on a different X (5342games)

The yellow graph is the player's result
The brown graph is the mathematical result of the game (based on -3%)

ps - I suspect:

1. Data provided in digital form has errors, because... data from the same source collected in different ways has slightly different results

2. If this data is collected in a demo game, then in a game for real money the graphs may be different

3. Even if the data is correct, it is possible that the game may have an adaptive algorithm

Hmm, my last post here has the cleanest version of the data in 1 column. That's is the one I spent 3+ hours converting.

This data was collected from 3 different online casino sites. over about 10 hours in 2 sessions. Because the game is played in a lobby style i don't think there could be an adaptive algorithm targeting just me. There is about 200-1400 bets simultaneously going on.

Where my strategy lies in applying the Fibonacci sequence at a 3X multiplier. Can you scan the data for a total number of losses between wins? When I did it manually I got a small faction of what is to be projected by probability math. Very rarely does it go about 13 losses in a row at 3X, and the math says in ~5300 spins it should see ~14.2 streaks of 14 losses in a row.

I asked The Wizard to see if he could shed some light on this. He said he will take a look.

Quote: Krispy519

Hmm, my last post here has the cleanest version of the data in 1 column. That's is the one I spent 3+ hours converting.

This data was collected from 3 different online casino sites. over about 10 hours in 2 sessions. Because the game is played in a lobby style i don't think there could be an adaptive algorithm targeting just me. There is about 200-1400 bets simultaneously going on.

Where my strategy lies in applying the Fibonacci sequence at a 3X multiplier. Can you scan the data for a total number of losses between wins? When I did it manually I got a small faction of what is to be projected by probability math. Very rarely does it go about 13 losses in a row at 3X, and the math says in ~5300 spins it should see ~14.2 streaks of 14 losses in a row.

I asked The Wizard to see if he could shed some light on this. He said he will take a look.
link to original post

What exactly is your Fibonacci system?

To make a simulation, I need to understand the logic and algorithm of the system. And in simple words.

Quote: Krispy519

Let's do a test of real data. I am doing screen shots of 3 different sites. I'll cut and paste the data together and we'll find out just how random it is. Each shot gathers ~150 spins. I figure 5000 spins should be enough to forecast a decent idea?

So few spins will tell you very little.

Count the reel stops on each reel, then multiply those numbers together and that will give you one cycle. One cycle will not be accurate but may be a good starting point for the number of spins you need to begin deducing it.

Quote: Dobrij

Quote: Krispy519

Hmm, my last post here has the cleanest version of the data in 1 column. That's is the one I spent 3+ hours converting.

This data was collected from 3 different online casino sites. over about 10 hours in 2 sessions. Because the game is played in a lobby style i don't think there could be an adaptive algorithm targeting just me. There is about 200-1400 bets simultaneously going on.

Where my strategy lies in applying the Fibonacci sequence at a 3X multiplier. Can you scan the data for a total number of losses between wins? When I did it manually I got a small faction of what is to be projected by probability math. Very rarely does it go about 13 losses in a row at 3X, and the math says in ~5300 spins it should see ~14.2 streaks of 14 losses in a row.

I asked The Wizard to see if he could shed some light on this. He said he will take a look.
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What exactly is your Fibonacci system?

To make a simulation, I need to understand the logic and algorithm of the system. And in simple words.
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Thank you for the continued help. There is two progressions that I wish to test. First is under a max bet cap of $2.00 to qualify for a sign up match bonus. The second is with the max bet of $100.00 once the bonus is achieved and the $2.00 max bet cap removed.

In both tests set the Multiplier to 3X. On a loss, step up to the next bet in the sequence. If the max bet loses, restart back at the first bet. On a win, restart back at the first bet.

First progression is: $0.10 - $0.10 - $0.20 - $0.30 - $0.50 - $0.80 - $1.30 - $2.00. If the $2.00 bet loses restart the sequence. If possible, keep a running total of number of bets and stop the this progression once a total of $1260 bets has been wagered. Also what the +/- to bankroll is. Example: 2014 bets to have wagered a total of $1260.30 with a net loss of $25.40. This is where the max bet cap of $2.00 would be removed.

Second progression is: $0.10 - $0.10 - $0.20 - $0.30 - $0.50 - $0.80 - $1.30 - $2.10 - $3.40 - $5.50 - $8.90 - $14.40 - $23.30 - $37.70 - $61.00 - $98.70. If the $98.70 bet loses restart the sequence. If possible, keep a running total of number of bets and stop this progression once the bankroll total is +$260.00. Example: 13046 bets to win a total of $260.50.

If you could run each progression 10,100 and 1000 times that would be greatly appreciated. With a running total of +/- to the bankroll for each. Giving an average of the +/- to the bankroll.

I look forward to your analysis. Thank you again.

Quote: DRich

Quote: Krispy519

Let's do a test of real data. I am doing screen shots of 3 different sites. I'll cut and paste the data together and we'll find out just how random it is. Each shot gathers ~150 spins. I figure 5000 spins should be enough to forecast a decent idea?

So few spins will tell you very little.

Count the reel stops on each reel, then multiply those numbers together and that will give you one cycle. One cycle will not be accurate but may be a good starting point for the number of spins you need to begin deducing it.
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Aviator is a Crash style game. It's stated RTP is 97%. The "spin" is the plane takes off and a multiplier starts to increase. This can range from 1X (an immediate crash, no one can win) to as high as I have seen 13902X.

The system I am trying to test, revolves around achieving a multiplier of 3X with a Fibonacci betting progression of $0.10 - $0.10 - $0.20 - $0.30 - $0.50 - $0.80 - $1.30 - $2.10 - $3.40 - $5.50 - $8.90 - $14.40 - $23.30 - $37.70 - $61.00 - $98.70. This pattern can withstand 15 losses in a row before it cracks and you can't make the next higher bet because of table maximum bet of $100.00. The game set with this pattern has an expected RTP close to betting one dozen on a European roulette wheel with a single 0. That is not the case in the sample data, as shown below.

In a manual count of the ~5300 spins the average of loss streaks is a small faction of what probability math would forecast. The chance to see a string of 16 losses in a row is 0.0019319529% or approximately 1 in 500. With the ~5300 spins the data shows it only achieved this ONCE. The probability says it should be a total of ~10.6 times it would have a streak loss of 16 in a row in ~5300 spins. I am no PhD in statistical analysis, but that has to be so far outside the normal deviation that is statistically significant.

Dobrij has been kind enough to enter this ~5300 spins into a model and produce the projected success. Hopefully it proves out there is a +EV to this system.

Quote: Krispy519

Dobrij has been kind enough to enter this ~5300 spins into a model and produce the projected success. Hopefully it proves out there is a +EV to this system.
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Have you looked at the charts? And I still don’t understand that there is no EV+? The only thing a player can try is to catch a positive strike, but this is still -3%

It's possible make the analyzer as you want, but it must be created individually.If you pay, I'll do it. Sorry.

Yes, I examined the charts. They are all based on a flat bet of setting a multiplier and an unchanging bet. Where I think the +EV can be found is in increasing the bet so it covers all previous losses.

Perhaps you can recommend an analyzer that I could learn to program myself?

Thank you for helping.

Quote: Krispy519

Yes, I examined the charts. They are all based on a flat bet of setting a multiplier and an unchanging bet. Where I think the +EV can be found is in increasing the bet so it covers all previous losses.
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That is what I call the Martingale Fallacy - the belief that "eventually" you will win. The problems are, "eventually" (a) can take a very, very long time, and (b) would require an extremely high bankroll, not to mention the willingness of the casino to accept such a bet.

If the game works as expected - 3% of the time, all bets lose, and the other 97% of the time, the probability of winning a bet at level X is 1 / X (i.e. 2x will win 1/2 of the time (well, 97% x 1/2 of the time), 3.5x will win 1 / 3.5 of the time, and so on) - then you will never get to a +EV position.

That's if it works as expected. I am not seeing 3% of the games having a 1.00x result.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Krispy519

Yes, I examined the charts. They are all based on a flat bet of setting a multiplier and an unchanging bet. Where I think the +EV can be found is in increasing the bet so it covers all previous losses.
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That is what I call the Martingale Fallacy - the belief that "eventually" you will win. The problems are, "eventually" (a) can take a very, very long time, and (b) would require an extremely high bankroll, not to mention the willingness of the casino to accept such a bet.

If the game works as expected - 3% of the time, all bets lose, and the other 97% of the time, the probability of winning a bet at level X is 1 / X (i.e. 2x will win 1/2 of the time (well, 97% x 1/2 of the time), 3.5x will win 1 / 3.5 of the time, and so on) - then you will never get to a +EV position.

That's if it works as expected. I am not seeing 3% of the games having a 1.00x result.
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I totally accept there is NO doubt that this game will beat you at any multiplier IF you keep the bet the same. Where the game data exposes its faults, it does not achieve loss streaks equal to what probability math would forecast. This makes it vulnerable to betting progressions like the Fibonacci Sequence.

I know one of my personal character flaws is proving I am right, possibly even when I am wrong. So I have invested about 20 hours in gathering the ~5300 spins, converting it to text, reformatting it to a single column and manually scanning it. To ensure I haven't misread the data I am seeking help to recommend a program/app (that I am willing to learn even) to properly output data under varying multipliers and varying bets.

What I want to explore is: Does the Fibonacci Sequence win enough before it cracks and you lose due to table max bet.

Hopefully there is a solution available?

I downloaded your file, converted the RTF to plaintext, and did counts on it.
I got this:
Total of 1717 runs
Runs of length:
0: 541
1: 376
2: 275
3: 173
4: 117
5: 72
6: 50
7: 32
8: 22
9: 14
10: 16
11: 9
12: 8
13: 3
14: 4
15: 3
16: 1
17: 1

There were 5 runs of length 15 or longer out of the 1717, or about 1 in every 343 runs.
"The math" suggests that the probability of a run lasting at least 15 is, as you put it earlier, (1 - 97/100 x 1/3)^15, which is about 1 in every 350.
In any event, you do not have nearly enough results to do proper analysis for something along the lines of runs of 15.

There is a saying about progressive systems like Fibonacci and Martingale: They work...until they don't.

Fantastic, thank you so much.

Now that I have learned a few shorts cut to extracting more data, all I need is time to record it.

After testing various versions of the Fibonacci Sequence against your findings, I have found that the most profitable sequence is:

$0.10 - $0.10 - $0.20 - $0.30 - $0.50 - $0.80 - $1.30 - $2.10 - $3.40 -$5.50 - $8.90 - $14.40 - $23.30 - $37.70 - $61.00 - $98.70

To run this sequence you need a bankroll of $258.40

Through the data this sequence won: $892.80

Through this data this sequence lost: $516.80

For a Profit of: $376.00

With a total amount wagered: $4282.60

Giving an EV of: +0.0877971326

At ~175 spins an hour, to reach 5349 spins is ~30.5 hours. For an average profit of ~$12.33 an hour.

This can be doubled as the game allows you to place 2 simultaneous bets, for a profit of ~$24.66 an hour.
This comes at the cost of having to double your bankroll to $516.80

So, what does this really allow for?

No signup/deposit bonus would work that includes a max bet cap.
Where extra profits could be extracted is in loyal points.

So my next mission is track down an online casino that offers both the game and the best loyalty structure for amount bet.

Thanks again and I'll be sure to share my findings.

Quote: Krispy519

Fantastic, thank you so much.

Now that I have learned a few shorts cut to extracting more data, all I need is time to record it.

After testing various versions of the Fibonacci Sequence against your findings, I have found that the most profitable sequence is:

$0.10 - $0.10 - $0.20 - $0.30 - $0.50 - $0.80 - $1.30 - $2.10 - $3.40 -$5.50 - $8.90 - $14.40 - $23.30 - $37.70 - $61.00 - $98.70

To run this sequence you need a bankroll of $258.40

Through the data this sequence won: $892.80

Through this data this sequence lost: $516.80

For a Profit of: $376.00

With a total amount wagered: $4282.60

Giving an EV of: +0.0877971326

At ~175 spins an hour, to reach 5349 spins is ~30.5 hours. For an average profit of ~$12.33 an hour.
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There aren't nearly enough plays to make this generalization over anything more than what you played.

What tools are you using to collect data? I've been trying to find an automated tool that can collect data but I have failed

I set up 3 different casinos, in different windows. Tile them so you can see the expanded spin history of each.

Screen shot them approximately every 20-22 minutes.

Compile each casino with itself by using photoshop, removing the overlapping spins.

Use an online OCR reader to strip out the numbers.

Text editor to find/replace all "x " with "\n" to format each number unto its own line.

Manually scan for errors, the OCR can read the x as an 8 in a few cases.

Use excel or Google sheets to examine the data. (That's the part I need help with and trying to learn)

What tools are you using to collect data? I've been trying to find an automated tool that can collect data but I have failed

I think it's possible to use an automated tool to collect and analyze the data. There's a github repository that I found but it was designed to work with one site only so one would need to modify it in order to make work with other sites
/luisrx7/AviatorStratChecker

Quote: Deepfriedfrenz

What tools are you using to collect data? I've been trying to find an automated tool that can collect data but I have failed
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I have been using screen shots of 3 different feeds. I then photoshop each into its own stack of spins. Next an OCR reader extracts the data into a text file. I then edit, combine and align the data into a single column with a word editor. For now this is where my skills are humbled. Recently, with help from others from here I have been learning C++ to then extract the data I want to prove out.

From what I have found there is only 3 different feeds to the game. It really doesn't matter which of those feeds that can be auto extracted, as I expect the algorithm to be the same. Currently I have another ~4800 spins to finish working on from last nights data gathering, bringing my total to ~10000. The Wizard confirmed that 20000 spins would be a good start to a valid sample. The more data, the more accurate the output becomes.

Should you succeed in developing an auto data extractor, I would be keenly interested. I am not looking for a cheat/predictor, I see a lot of those scams offered. An easier way to gather a very large data set would be a tremendous boon.

Thank you for your interest in this project, I look forward to your findings.

Quote: Deepfriedfrenz

I think it's possible to use an automated tool to collect and analyze the data. There's a github repository that I found but it was designed to work with one site only so one would need to modify it in order to make work with other sites
/luisrx7/AviatorStratChecker
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I am confident that any data feed would be using the same algorithm, as it uses this "provably fair" mechanic.

Please update this thread should you have any success.

Thank you for your interest in this project.

/u/s9rkyvc95b
Try these files for your analysis. I'm still tinkering with the code . I'll update you if I make any progress

Quote: Deepfriedfrenz

/u/s9rkyvc95b
Try these files for your analysis. I'm still tinkering with the code . I'll update you if I make any progress
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The link is just text. I think because you have a new account you can't embed links. Maybe a private message works?

Okay just send me an email Fredthinne@gmail