Election Betting
It may act as some raw meat to the rank and file (always a good thing), but to everyone else it's just trombone talk from Charlie Brown's teacher. I note, however, that Trump has slipped a few points in the RCP betting pools since the story broke so, we'll see.
Quote: GialmereMy reading of the tea leaves is that the Nazi story is actually bad news for Harris. Think about it. It's crunch time, and the best October surprise the blue team can come up with us to play the Hitler card on Trump? Yet again? White noise.
It may act as some raw meat to the rank and file (always a good thing), but to everyone else it's just trombone talk from Charlie Brown's teacher. I note, however, that Trump has slipped a few points in the RCP betting pools since the story broke so, we'll see.
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Goodwin's Law.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: MDawgElon Musk produced a fake Atlantic headline comparing Trump to Hitler in satire. That was refuted by the Atlantic.
The comments Kelly made about Trump wanting Nazi generals and that Hitler did some good things were made in interviews with both the New York Times and the Atlantic. These have not been “proven to be fake” though it is interesting if AZDuffman is a Trump supporter if this sort of perception is typical of Trump voters to try to come up with some reason - false or not - to overlook yet another bad headline.
Of course team Trump has denied the comments the same way they have denied all the negative and unhinged things Trump has been reported as saying such as “military are losers’ but these go along the lines of denials of sexual assault and criminal activity where juries have already determined otherwise.
The end result of the criminal defendant who keeps saying that everyone else is a liar is a conviction. It’s hard to believe that deny deny deny is leading to convincing people to vote for a candidate but we will know in a couple of weeks.
What I’m interested in seeing is if this latest Trump Hitler gaffe will affect the polls.
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This all falls under a general rubric of bad-faith argumentation. In any kind of reasonable analysis, no one is asked to prove a negative. It leads to logical absurdities. I can't prove I don't support Hitler either. If somebody got stabbed out on the Strip last night I can't prove I didn't do it, and if accused, my only defense would be the principle that I don't have to prove a negative. I know, sounds weak, doesn't it? But sorry to tell you- but unless you can prove you were somewhere else at the time it's the only defense you have too.
"But it appeared in not just one, but TWO sources known for extreme partisan bias and putting themselves in service of one political party! Refute THAT, now!"
A grotesquely illustrative example of this bad-faith tactic was shown during the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings. They trotted out this woman, sounded like a nut, to accuse Kavanaugh of raping her at a party when they were teens. No evidence that she had ever even met Kavanaugh or been at the same place at the same time he was, just a lurid story.
"Ah, but can you prove you DIDN'T assault her?
Then after she laid an egg up there, nobody was buying it, they came up with a bunch more accusers, each one telling a story worse than the last, we were supposed to accept that as "mounting evidence."
"They can't ALL be lying, now!
Why yes, yes they can be. And apparently were.
The neverending snow job. It appears to date back to a time when people of one particular political orientation were taught by their perfessers that they were smarter than everyone else. You've read the right books, you've correctly recited the right ideas, you laugh at the right jokes, have the right friends, and everybody else is an idiot. It's natural for people to like believing those things about themselves, and a belief that people like will be sincerely held. The result of that is a form of communication intended to deceive people who have been deemed just not bright enough to make their own decisions.
So I hear a story like this, and I'm expected to say: "Well golly gee whiz Mabel, says right here in the New York Times that Trump is for Hitler! Says he's a Russian agent too. Why, that's against the Good Book, I ain't subjecting myself to e-ternal damnation by voting for no Russian agent who's for Hitler!" Needless to say it hasn't been very effective, and the rejection of the bad-faith rhetoric that we weren't supposed to be smart enough to figure out leads to people who uttered the rhetoric to doubt themselves, that maybe their dearly held beliefs about who is smart and who is not are reversed, and it becomes personal. This is why the unprecedented venom and vituperation directed by the establishment media against one political figure extends well beyond that figure to anyone who supports him- the fact that they continue to support him and it is only this establishment that has lost credibility shatters their illusions of themselves as brilliant patricians capable of hoodwinking and herding the ignorant plebs.
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I'm trying to be lenient, but this post is way over the line. I will start with a Warning. In this thread you are not supposed to argue for or against Trump or Harris, or for or against the righteousness of some of the anecdotal information that politicians are claiming or have claimed in the past. We insist that you take those kinds of posts to a forum other than WOV. Anyone who continues to break these rules will face suspension.
I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf, MDawg. Any moderator may come after me and suspend one or more of you. Please rein in the partisan argumentation.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? SHOW ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Quote: gordonm888Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: MDawgElon Musk produced a fake Atlantic headline comparing Trump to Hitler in satire. That was refuted by the Atlantic.
The comments Kelly made about Trump wanting Nazi generals and that Hitler did some good things were made in interviews with both the New York Times and the Atlantic. These have not been “proven to be fake” though it is interesting if AZDuffman is a Trump supporter if this sort of perception is typical of Trump voters to try to come up with some reason - false or not - to overlook yet another bad headline.
Of course team Trump has denied the comments the same way they have denied all the negative and unhinged things Trump has been reported as saying such as “military are losers’ but these go along the lines of denials of sexual assault and criminal activity where juries have already determined otherwise.
The end result of the criminal defendant who keeps saying that everyone else is a liar is a conviction. It’s hard to believe that deny deny deny is leading to convincing people to vote for a candidate but we will know in a couple of weeks.
What I’m interested in seeing is if this latest Trump Hitler gaffe will affect the polls.
link to original post
This all falls under a general rubric of bad-faith argumentation. In any kind of reasonable analysis, no one is asked to prove a negative. It leads to logical absurdities. I can't prove I don't support Hitler either. If somebody got stabbed out on the Strip last night I can't prove I didn't do it, and if accused, my only defense would be the principle that I don't have to prove a negative. I know, sounds weak, doesn't it? But sorry to tell you- but unless you can prove you were somewhere else at the time it's the only defense you have too.
"But it appeared in not just one, but TWO sources known for extreme partisan bias and putting themselves in service of one political party! Refute THAT, now!"
A grotesquely illustrative example of this bad-faith tactic was shown during the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings. They trotted out this woman, sounded like a nut, to accuse Kavanaugh of raping her at a party when they were teens. No evidence that she had ever even met Kavanaugh or been at the same place at the same time he was, just a lurid story.
"Ah, but can you prove you DIDN'T assault her?
Then after she laid an egg up there, nobody was buying it, they came up with a bunch more accusers, each one telling a story worse than the last, we were supposed to accept that as "mounting evidence."
"They can't ALL be lying, now!
Why yes, yes they can be. And apparently were.
The neverending snow job. It appears to date back to a time when people of one particular political orientation were taught by their perfessers that they were smarter than everyone else. You've read the right books, you've correctly recited the right ideas, you laugh at the right jokes, have the right friends, and everybody else is an idiot. It's natural for people to like believing those things about themselves, and a belief that people like will be sincerely held. The result of that is a form of communication intended to deceive people who have been deemed just not bright enough to make their own decisions.
So I hear a story like this, and I'm expected to say: "Well golly gee whiz Mabel, says right here in the New York Times that Trump is for Hitler! Says he's a Russian agent too. Why, that's against the Good Book, I ain't subjecting myself to e-ternal damnation by voting for no Russian agent who's for Hitler!" Needless to say it hasn't been very effective, and the rejection of the bad-faith rhetoric that we weren't supposed to be smart enough to figure out leads to people who uttered the rhetoric to doubt themselves, that maybe their dearly held beliefs about who is smart and who is not are reversed, and it becomes personal. This is why the unprecedented venom and vituperation directed by the establishment media against one political figure extends well beyond that figure to anyone who supports him- the fact that they continue to support him and it is only this establishment that has lost credibility shatters their illusions of themselves as brilliant patricians capable of hoodwinking and herding the ignorant plebs.
link to original post
I'm trying to be lenient, but this post is way over the line. I will start with a Warning. In this thread you are not supposed to argue for or against Trump or Harris, or for or against the righteousness of some of the anecdotal information that politicians are claiming or have claimed in the past. We insist that you take those kinds of posts to a forum other than WOV. Anyone who continues to break these rules will face suspension.
I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf, MDawg. Any moderator may come after me and suspend one or more of you. Please rein in the partisan argumentation.
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And please don't make some weak BS up to save face. You can always go back and read everything again and let me know you have made a mistake.
Duffman, OTOH, only posts political crap and never gets in trouble.
Quote: ams288I agree that AxelWolf’s posts have not been political. He is extremely betting-focused. AKA what this thread is supposedly for.
Duffman, OTOH, only posts political crap and never gets in trouble.
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None of Axel’s posts are quoted in the above warning post???
As at 22h BST
Winner : Trump 1.68/1.69 Harris 2.48/2.50
Popular vote : Harris 1.49/1.50 Trump 2.96/3.00
The BBC has been covering many of the current stories and I imagine it will cover the voting overnight.
Quote: unJonQuote: ams288I agree that AxelWolf’s posts have not been political. He is extremely betting-focused. AKA what this thread is supposedly for.
Duffman, OTOH, only posts political crap and never gets in trouble.
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None of Axel’s posts are quoted in the above warning post???
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But he was given a warning for some reason???
Quote: AZDuffmanReports I am getting say this week's polls will be among the last. One pundit said that there is rarely anyone changes their mind the last week, though undecideds may still break one way or the other. So, will the betting markets lock in as well? Or will they keep drifting the direction they have been like an out of balance Superbowl line? As betting markets are not really mature yet will be interesting to see.
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Frank Luntz who I personally cannot stand, said yesterday that everybody in the country who's going to make up their mind has made up their mind. He says the 2% who are undecided don't like either candidate and are not going to vote because that's the way it always is. He said it's too late for an October surprise because that has to happen far earlier in the month, it's too close to the election now. Now that everybody is voting, a lot of it in person in most of the states already, it's all over except for the counting. The media of course will not tell you this because they want you to keep tuning in that anything could happen any minute that would change everything. Nope, not going to happen.
Quote: gordonm888
I'm trying to be lenient, but this post is way over the line. I will start with a Warning. In this thread you are not supposed to argue for or against Trump or Harris, or for or against the righteousness of some of the anecdotal information that politicians are claiming or have claimed in the past. We insist that you take those kinds of posts to a forum other than WOV. Anyone who continues to break these rules will face suspension.
I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf, MDawg. Any moderator may come after me and suspend one or more of you. Please rein in the partisan argumentation.
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Thank you. I figured the rule wouldn't be enforced until somebody edgelorded it so I TOFTT.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: GialmereMy reading of the tea leaves is that the Nazi story is actually bad news for Harris. Think about it. It's crunch time, and the best October surprise the blue team can come up with us to play the Hitler card on Trump? Yet again? White noise.
It may act as some raw meat to the rank and file (always a good thing), but to everyone else it's just trombone talk from Charlie Brown's teacher. I note, however, that Trump has slipped a few points in the RCP betting pools since the story broke so, we'll see.
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Goodwin's Law.
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“With Hitler, the more I learn about this guy the more I don’t care for him.”
- Norm MacDonald
Implied likelihood overall for the winner now 57-43 in Trump’s favor.
Quote: SOOPOOInteresting bet opportunity. Some ‘experts’ think that one or the other candidate will win all of the 7 ‘swing states’. So that whoever wins, will win by a large margin of electoral votes. You can bet on Predictit ‘win by XX -YY’. The favorite is GOP by 65-104. Implied likelihood around 25%. Democrat to win by that margin around 12%.
Implied likelihood overall for the winner now 57-43 in Trump’s favor.
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65-104? What is that meaning?
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOInteresting bet opportunity. Some ‘experts’ think that one or the other candidate will win all of the 7 ‘swing states’. So that whoever wins, will win by a large margin of electoral votes. You can bet on Predictit ‘win by XX -YY’. The favorite is GOP by 65-104. Implied likelihood around 25%. Democrat to win by that margin around 12%.
Implied likelihood overall for the winner now 57-43 in Trump’s favor.
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65-104? What is that meaning?
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That the difference in electoral college votes will fall in that band.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOInteresting bet opportunity. Some ‘experts’ think that one or the other candidate will win all of the 7 ‘swing states’. So that whoever wins, will win by a large margin of electoral votes. You can bet on Predictit ‘win by XX -YY’. The favorite is GOP by 65-104. Implied likelihood around 25%. Democrat to win by that margin around 12%.
Implied likelihood overall for the winner now 57-43 in Trump’s favor.
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65-104? What is that meaning?
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That the difference in electoral college votes will fall in that band.
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Ok thanks. Now makes a bit more sense.
Quote: EvenBob{snip} the election is still 11 days away. {snip}
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The election is happening right now. A large fraction of the electorate is using early voting in 47 states. It's reported that over 32 million had already voted by the end of yesterday (Thursday).
2.3 million have already voted in Georgia, a key swing state.
Last election, in 2020, 100 million voted early, and it's projected that this election will surpass that.
So, IMO, late breaking swings in polling numbers are difficult to interpret.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: EvenBob{snip} the election is still 11 days away. {snip}
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The election is happening right now. A large fraction of the electorate is using early voting in 47 states. It's reported that over 32 million had already voted by the end of yesterday (Thursday).
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Yeah but they're all voting for this guy.
Are you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
I’ll tell you why but it’s going to be a political statement. If you bet on Kamala and she wins you make money. If she loses, well small price to pay for the entertainment we’ll get on election night. Think of it like your home team making it to the World Series and then betting against them.Quote: AxelWolfI was very surprised after talking to a number of AP's who are staunch Trump supporters.
They are betting or have bet on Kamala Harris.
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Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
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I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
You said "I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf,"Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
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I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
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I asked you to show me the post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/21/#post939356
Quote: AxelWolfYou said "I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf,"Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
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I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
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I asked you to show me the post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/21/#post939356
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You are correct. I've gone back and checked and you are entirely innocent of posting anything that is partisan politics. I do apologize to you for including your name in that warning. I was mistaken and made an error. I am sorry.
I somehow attributed in my mind a post made by MDawg with a partisan phrase to you. I assume that people don't often confuse you with MDawg! I'll try not to do that again.
I can get in enough trouble on my own without some fabricated charges.Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfYou said "I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf,"Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
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I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
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I asked you to show me the post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/21/#post939356
link to original post
You are correct. I've gone back and checked and you are entirely innocent of posting anything that is partisan politics. I do apologize to you for including your name in that warning. I was mistaken and made an error. I am sorry.
I somehow attributed in my mind a post made by MDawg with a partisan phrase to you. I assume that people don't often confuse you with MDawg! I'll try not to do that again.
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I guess my theory that gordonm888 has been out to get me, might actually be correct after all
Here are a few reasons why you might perceive helicopters as following you.
1)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
2)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
😉
But in all seriousness, much respect for the admission, correction, and apology.
Quote: AxelWolfI can get in enough trouble on my own without some fabricated charges.Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfYou said "I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf,"Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
link to original post
I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
link to original post
I asked you to show me the post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/21/#post939356
link to original post
You are correct. I've gone back and checked and you are entirely innocent of posting anything that is partisan politics. I do apologize to you for including your name in that warning. I was mistaken and made an error. I am sorry.
I somehow attributed in my mind a post made by MDawg with a partisan phrase to you. I assume that people don't often confuse you with MDawg! I'll try not to do that again.
link to original post
I guess my theory that gordonm888 has been out to get me, might actually be correct after all
Here are a few reasons why you might perceive helicopters as following you.
1)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
2)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
😉
But in all seriousness, much respect for the admission, correction, and apology.
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Would you say the charges were “Trumped up?”
Ok, I’ll suspend myself from the thread for that one.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: AxelWolfI can get in enough trouble on my own without some fabricated charges.Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfYou said "I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf,"Quote: gordonm888Quote: AxelWolfAre you too proud to admit you were wrong and apologize to me?Quote: gordonm888]
link to original post
I actually have no idea which issue you are talking about. But if I have wronged you then I do apologize. I think you're a good guy and a significant asset to this forum and I bear no ill will to you.
link to original post
I asked you to show me the post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/21/#post939356
link to original post
You are correct. I've gone back and checked and you are entirely innocent of posting anything that is partisan politics. I do apologize to you for including your name in that warning. I was mistaken and made an error. I am sorry.
I somehow attributed in my mind a post made by MDawg with a partisan phrase to you. I assume that people don't often confuse you with MDawg! I'll try not to do that again.
link to original post
I guess my theory that gordonm888 has been out to get me, might actually be correct after all
Here are a few reasons why you might perceive helicopters as following you.
1)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
2)BECAUSE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!!!!
😉
But in all seriousness, much respect for the admission, correction, and apology.
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Would you say the charges were “Trumped up?”
Ok, I’ll suspend myself from the thread for that one.
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Being suspended for that quip would be nothing short of ….
Harrisment
