Election Betting
Quote: TigerWuTrump apparently just had a disastrous appearance at a convention of black journalists. I didn't see it, but it's the big political news right now. I wonder if it will be bad enough to tilt the odds at all.
link to original post
Didn't see it, but read a few news articles. Let's just say it most likely didn't do anything to help him win over more undecided voters, or larger share of the minority vote.
Getting back to odds and predictions: Nate Silver's first Trump-Harris forecast - https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Quote: TigerWuTrump apparently just had a disastrous appearance at a convention of black journalists. I didn't see it, but it's the big political news right now. I wonder if it will be bad enough to tilt the odds at all.
link to original post
Here is the full 36 minute video if anyone cares. Was supposed to go for 60 minutes but his people shut it down early.
HIGHLY entertaining to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/live/jgod-nqFEEc?si=jDYzJvdVkct6gAl0
Quote: TigerWuTrump apparently just had a disastrous appearance at a convention of black journalists. I didn't see it, but it's the big political news right now. I wonder if it will be bad enough to tilt the odds at all.
link to original post
No commentary from me
Judge for yourself
Big nothing burger on changing the result of the election.
My newest prediction…..
(If) Trump wins he would have lost if Cornell West votes were Democrat votes instead. That would be the loser’s (CW) legacy!
Quote: SOOPOOWatched the first 20 minutes or so. Trump did absolutely nothing to change anyone’s opinion of him. There is no Trump supporter that would find anything he said problematic. There is no Trump hater that found anything he said of any value in lessening their hate. link to original post
And what about those mythical “undecided” voters? Do you think that interview moved them in his direction?
Interview fallout or just general momentum in her favor lately?
Quote: ams288Quote: SOOPOOWatched the first 20 minutes or so. Trump did absolutely nothing to change anyone’s opinion of him. There is no Trump supporter that would find anything he said problematic. There is no Trump hater that found anything he said of any value in lessening their hate. link to original post
And what about those mythical “undecided” voters? Do you think that interview moved them in his direction?
link to original post
I cannot see any way that interview moved any voter that wasn’t already voting for Trump to vote for Trump. But no Trump voter is going to change his/her/it’s mind to not vote for Trump. As I said, a nothing burger.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288Quote: SOOPOOWatched the first 20 minutes or so. Trump did absolutely nothing to change anyone’s opinion of him. There is no Trump supporter that would find anything he said problematic. There is no Trump hater that found anything he said of any value in lessening their hate. link to original post
And what about those mythical “undecided” voters? Do you think that interview moved them in his direction?
link to original post
I cannot see any way that interview moved any voter that wasn’t already voting for Trump to vote for Trump. But no Trump voter is going to change his/her/it’s mind to not vote for Trump. As I said, a nothing burger.
link to original post
This is not a response to the question I asked.
Quote: ams288PredictIt has flipped to Harris for the first time.
Interview fallout or just general momentum in her favor lately?
link to original post
Probably a combination of both, but I would say mostly it's still from momentum. I bet she drops back just below Trump by tomorrow or so.
1. Today, Iran has apparently threatened a direct military attack against Israel, as retaliation for Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil.
2. Russia has reportedly moved tactical nuclear weapons close to the Ukrainian border after just completing the training of their military on how to use their tactical nukes.
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
Obviously any major Russian/Iranian attack in the next 90 days may disrupt the media focus and shift public conversation to foreign affairs - which may affect the election odds of incumbents. War in the Middle East would especially be a nightmare for Democrats because both American Jews and American anti-Zionists are voting blocs within the Democrat party and its hard for a candidate to be aligned with both sides of a war.
Quote: gordonm888
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
This comes up every now and again. Heard something in 2008 I forget the logic.
Quote: gordonm888The issues I am watching that could potentially have a disruptive effect on election odds:
1. Today, Iran has apparently threatened a direct military attack against Israel, as retaliation for Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil.
2. Russia has reportedly moved tactical nuclear weapons close to the Ukrainian border after just completing the training of their military on how to use their tactical nukes.
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
I don't think #2 or #3 will cause any disruption.
Quote: gordonm888The issues I am watching that could potentially have a disruptive effect on election odds:
1. Today, Iran has apparently threatened a direct military attack against Israel, as retaliation for Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil.
2. Russia has reportedly moved tactical nuclear weapons close to the Ukrainian border after just completing the training of their military on how to use their tactical nukes.
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
I don't think #2 or #3 will cause any disruption.
Quote: DRichQuote: gordonm888The issues I am watching that could potentially have a disruptive effect on election odds:
1. Today, Iran has apparently threatened a direct military attack against Israel, as retaliation for Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil.
2. Russia has reportedly moved tactical nuclear weapons close to the Ukrainian border after just completing the training of their military on how to use their tactical nukes.
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
I don't think #2 or #3 will cause any disruption.
link to original post
Right wing elements in Russian government and Russian media have always been agitating that Alaska is part of Russia. They're tilting at windmills.
Russia knows not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
I make no public comment about Israel-Gaza-Hezbollah-Iran.
At the same time, being the key word.
I do believe that Putin intensely dislikes the Biden administration and that he is likely to make mischief so that he looks strong - in order to make Biden/Harris look weak in the run-up to the election. The Ukraine is attacking targets in Russia with US-provided weapons, the US has just given the first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and Putin is threatening escalation. And one can just imagine what the assessment is of Biden by the Russian intelligence agency. I think there is a clear possibility that Russia will do something militarily in the next three months, partly motivated by Putin's desire to affect the US presidential election. I have no special knowledge of what target he might pick: Ukraine? Alaska? A NATO country such as Poland or Finland? Cuba/Florida? However, if you are seriously looking at Election Odds then I suggest you look outward and consider Russia.
And everything I am hearing is that Netanyahu and Israel also feel they have a large stake in the outcome of the US election and that they want a Trump victory. And I suspect that this will be a factor in the timing and nature of what Israel chooses to do militarily. The Middle East is a very dangerous place right now.
I suspect that China is content with Biden/Harris and has no motivation to rock the boat in the next three months. Their intel agencies will likely be trying to influence US voters against Trump on social media.
Again, my focus is not on whether the US can win a confrontation militarily; it's on whether foreign actions will influence the election outcome. If you believe that the world is stable and that the status quo will not change - then you are certainly entitled to that opinion.
Waiting for Trump to win is like waiting for Godot - never going to happen. I assume the betting fairs always knew this and wanted to take in as much Trump money as possible, never expecting to pay it out.
Quote: MDawgKamala Harris Takes First Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Odds
Waiting for Trump to win is like waiting for Godot - never going to happen. I assume the betting fairs always knew this and wanted to take in as much Trump money as possible, never expecting to pay it out.
link to original post
So they said in 2016 when they paid out on Hillary a week before the election.
Quote: MDawgKamala Harris Takes First Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Odds
Waiting for Trump to win is like waiting for Godot - never going to happen. I assume the betting fairs always knew this and wanted to take in as much Trump money as possible, never expecting to pay it out.
link to original post
So they said in 2016 when they paid out on Hillary a week before the election.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: MDawgKamala Harris Takes First Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Odds
Waiting for Trump to win is like waiting for Godot - never going to happen. I assume the betting fairs always knew this and wanted to take in as much Trump money as possible, never expecting to pay it out.
link to original post
So they said in 2016 when they paid out on Hillary a week before the election.
link to original post
A lot has changed in the last 8 years.
Quote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for. When did we become that country. In 1980 If you flew the American flag people had no idea who you were going for.
link to original post
Is this “somebody” in the room with you right now?
Quote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for. When did we become that country. In 1980 If you flew the American flag people had no idea who you were going for.
link to original post
Now would that be upside down or right side up?
Quote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for.
link to original post
This sounds like an urban legend or an old wives tale or something....LOL
Quote: tuttigymThere is supposed to be real "science" in polling, but I personally cannot fathom such when the actual numbers of people polled is such a small sample. Some Fox News polling shows less than 1,000 polled participants. The same for other "trustworthy" polls. How can they be reliable? There are so many variables, and folks do lie.
You are completely right. The polls are not remotely reliable in recent history. They are slightly better than guessing.
Solve by illustration: chance of the actual result of the last US and UK elections deviating from their poll averages is about 400-1, if you assume the sampling was done correctly. It gets much worse for the pollsters if you go further back.
The polls *might* be a useful starting point for a hypothesis in the complete absence of any other information. But mostly gamblers obsessing over them are compulsive gamblers looking to validate a sucker bet:. Bear in mind this website makes its money from sending losers to online casinos so you won't get much quality information here.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for.
link to original post
This sounds like an urban legend or an old wives tale or something....LOL
link to original post
I don’t know about the flag but there are ques. The year PA asked for ID I said happy to. I must have been showing my cards because the one worker looked at the other and said “notice the correlation…,”.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for.
link to original post
This sounds like an urban legend or an old wives tale or something....LOL
link to original post
I don’t know about the flag but there are ques. The year PA asked for ID I said happy to. I must have been showing my cards because the one worker looked at the other and said “notice the correlation…,”.
link to original post
Can someone translate this to English?
Quote: ams288Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobSomebody pointed out that when you fly the American flag everybody knows who you're voting for.
link to original post
This sounds like an urban legend or an old wives tale or something....LOL
link to original post
I don’t know about the flag but there are ques. The year PA asked for ID I said happy to. I must have been showing my cards because the one worker looked at the other and said “notice the correlation…,”.
link to original post
Can someone translate this to English?
link to original post
Translation: "Cut me some slack, Jack! My momma didn't raise no dummies. I dug her rap! Jive ass turkey don't got the medicide anyhow!, (Golly!)"
Quote: darkoz
Translation: "Cut me some slack, Jack! My momma didn't raise no dummies. I dug her rap! Jive ass turkey don't got the medicide anyhow!, (Golly!)"
link to original post
You must be such fun at parties with your cutting edge 44-year old humorous references.
Quote: gordonm888The issues I am watching that could potentially have a disruptive effect on election odds:
1. Today, Iran has apparently threatened a direct military attack against Israel, as retaliation for Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader on Iranian soil.
2. Russia has reportedly moved tactical nuclear weapons close to the Ukrainian border after just completing the training of their military on how to use their tactical nukes.
3. Russian TV commentators are making statements that Alaska belongs to Russia. (!)
Obviously any major Russian/Iranian attack in the next 90 days may disrupt the media focus and shift public conversation to foreign affairs - which may affect the election odds of incumbents. War in the Middle East would especially be a nightmare for Democrats because both American Jews and American anti-Zionists are voting blocs within the Democrat party and its hard for a candidate to be aligned with both sides of a war.
link to original post
I can see why you became a moderator. So people would have to listen to your bullshit.
Do you often talk and notice people trying to get away and/or not really paying attention? This is why.
Ask yourself for a second: what is the point of what I am saying? Do I know what I'm talking about. If the answer is "no I'm just repeating bullshit I saw on television without really understanding it" then maybe keep quiet. The other posters were trying to hint this to you politely.
Red flags here
1. Not all "Jews" support Israel.
2, Not just "anti-zionists" oppose war (duh).
3. The Russians threaten nuclear war every Thursday.
4. (actually this would go up to 30 but I don't have time...)
Even IF the probability of a major war breaking out had increased since last week then your post is still completely useless for betting purposes. There is no obvious way any of this feeds into election predictions and many of the implications are counter-intuitive.
Quote: goawayQuote: darkoz
Translation: "Cut me some slack, Jack! My momma didn't raise no dummies. I dug her rap! Jive ass turkey don't got the medicide anyhow!, (Golly!)"
link to original post
You must be such fun at parties with your cutting edge 44-year old humorous references.
link to original post
Lol take your screen names advice.
Quote: goawayOh Touche! Wow that was some comeback zinger boy! You just know someone's got the better of you when they essentially repeat your own fucking words back to you...
link to original post
Adios amigo
Quote: TigerWuI hope goaway enjoys his sabbatical away from the forum, and I also hope we can get back on track here.
link to original post
What is "on track"?
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google. There is no value to anything you post to a bettor.
Quote: goaway
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google.
link to original post
Yes, that's literally the point of this entire thread. See you in a few days.
Quote: darkozQuote: goawayOh Touche! Wow that was some comeback zinger boy! You just know someone's got the better of you when they essentially repeat your own fucking words back to you...
link to original post
Adios amigo
link to original post
Wow I can actually visualize the dribble rolling down your chin as you wrote that.
What is your thought process here fuckwit...let me guess...
"Hur hur hur!I Goodbye, but in Spanish! Like in films! Clever! Funny! Hur hur."
Quote: TigerWuQuote: goaway
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google.
link to original post
Yes, that's literally the point of this entire thread. See you in a few days.
link to original post
OK.
So you are doing this why, Jeb?
Btw I don't think I can keep tormenting you morons for more than a few hours but I'll try.
Quote: goawayQuote: darkozQuote: goawayOh Touche! Wow that was some comeback zinger boy! You just know someone's got the better of you when they essentially repeat your own fucking words back to you...
link to original post
Adios amigo
link to original post
Wow I can actually visualize the dribble rolling down your chin as you wrote that.
What is your thought process here fuckwit...let me guess...
"Hur hur hur!I Goodbye, but in Spanish! Like in films! Clever! Funny! Hur hur."
link to original post
Jerry?? MKL??
Quote: TigerWuQuote: goaway
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google.
link to original post
Yes, that's literally the point of this entire thread. See you in a few days.
link to original post
A few days?
Hopefully the mods will just skip to the chase.
Quote: AZDuffman
Jerry?? MKL??
link to original post
Oh I see. You've encountered other people who can't stand you painful dullards and you can't believe other unique individuals might find you tedious.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: goaway
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google.
link to original post
Yes, that's literally the point of this entire thread. See you in a few days.
link to original post
Tiger.
That guy actually thinks he's tormenting us.
He probably works as a casino security guard. They always think they are tormenting me also LMAO .
Quote: goawayOK.
So you are doing this why, Jeb?
Btw I don't think I can keep tormenting you morons for more than a few hours but I'll try.
link to original post
LOL You won't even last here more than a few hours.... Sayonara.
Quote: ams288
A few days?
Hopefully the mods will just skip to the chase.
Oh yeah it would take a massive 35 seconds to create a new id , maybe 50 if they use IP bans which they don't. Not very clever are you?
But don't worry I don't think I can stand the company of you people for much longer.
Quote: goaway
But don't worry I don't think I can stand the company of you people for much longer.
link to original post
K bye
Quote: darkozQuote: TigerWuQuote: goaway
All you do is post public information and betting odds which any one can google.
link to original post
Yes, that's literally the point of this entire thread. See you in a few days.
link to original post
Tiger.
That guy actually thinks he's tormenting us.
He probably works as a casino security guard. They always think they are tormenting me also LMAO .
link to original post
Dude you aren't sharp. Stop pretending to be an AP.
Don't be too hasty! First I must know when you next plan to post stale betting odds!
