Election Betting
Quote: AZDuffmanInteresting thing on JD Vance.......he is the first politician at this level to wear a beard in what....100 years? Wondering if that will be talked about. Just curious.
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last president to have facial hair was Teddy Roosevelt.
I had to look it up, but it looks like Taft sported a mustache.Quote: WizardSomeone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last president to have facial hair was Teddy Roosevelt.
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Here is a list of presidential portraits, courtesy of the Library of Congress. Mid-19th century through the turn of the century, it appears that facial hair was the norm.
Quote: WizardQuote: AZDuffmanInteresting thing on JD Vance.......he is the first politician at this level to wear a beard in what....100 years? Wondering if that will be talked about. Just curious.
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last president to have facial hair was Teddy Roosevelt.
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For some reason, there is a wikipedia page covering this.
Truman briefly had facial hair following the 1948 election, but this was in private and it is has never legally been determined if he counts as the last facial hair president.
Quote: Wizard<SNIP>
...Teddy Roosevelt.
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Saturday’s Trump incident brings to mind a similar event, in October 1912 involving Teddy Roosevelt
Quote: Charles Apple - The Spokesman-ReviewWhen Roosevelt reached into his coat pocket for his speech, he discovered what had saved his life: The bullet had shattered his eyeglass case and put a hole through his 50 pages of prepared remarks.
https://www.todaysrdh.com/amazing-but-true-dental-tales-of-past-us-presidents/Quote: TigerWuTeddy Roosevelt had some astonishingly straight teeth.
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Quote:Teddy’s teeth became the highlight of his 1904 re-election campaign. His smile was often described as a “double row of teeth.” This description describes a full dentition − quite rare during that era.
As part of his campaign, “Teddy’s teeth” novelties were worn by many of his supporters. The novelty is described by the National Museum of American History as a “metal whistle that could be held between your teeth” giving you a faux Teddy smile, much like the novelty pacifiers seen today.
(Posted 'cuz I'm sure mcallister3200 will be able to enjoy this dentition discussion much more than the disquisition on presidential depilation.)
Too long & hairy, so DO NOT READ: https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-beard-vice-president-1925651
Quote: JoemanI had to look it up, but it looks like Taft sported a mustache.Quote: WizardSomeone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last president to have facial hair was Teddy Roosevelt.
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Here is a list of presidential portraits, courtesy of the Library of Congress. Mid-19th century through the turn of the century, it appears that facial hair was the norm.
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It was the norm as to shave you used a straight razor. Not easy probably not cheap either. Most men seem to have had beards. Beards seem to have come back starting 15-20 years ago or so. Now to the point a high political candidate has one. I do want to see if the talking heads bring it up.
Quote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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I just want to know what idiots are still throwing their money away betting on Michelle Obama to win.....LOL
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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I just want to know what idiots are still throwing their money away betting on Michelle Obama to win.....LOL
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Same ones who bet the Browns to win the superbowl preseason every year.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: JoemanI had to look it up, but it looks like Taft sported a mustache.Quote: WizardSomeone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last president to have facial hair was Teddy Roosevelt.
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Here is a list of presidential portraits, courtesy of the Library of Congress. Mid-19th century through the turn of the century, it appears that facial hair was the norm.
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It was the norm as to shave you used a straight razor. Not easy probably not cheap either. Most men seem to have had beards. Beards seem to have come back starting 15-20 years ago or so. Now to the point a high political candidate has one. I do want to see if the talking heads bring it up.
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Folks on the right like Greg Gutfeld and such have been talking beards since before Sen Vance was on the shortlist.
Guess what? The DNC is going through with the virtual roll call anyway, as soon as Sunday, even though it is no longer necessary. According to NBC News, a group of 20+ Dem lawmakers have signed a letter to halt the call, allowing the debate over whether to nominate Biden or some other candidate to continue until the convention.
Personally, I think the call will go ahead as planned, thus ending the debate. My personal prediction, made two weeks ago (but not here) is that the party elites will wall off the B-H campaign and feed it only enough money to stave off charges of abandonment, while concentrating the remainder of donor funds to secure one or both houses of Congress, while gearing up for 2028. That strategy would stymie any moves a President Trump could make while preserving resources for the next round.
House:
52.5% Republican control
47.5% Democrat control
Senate:
77.6% Republican control
22.4% Democrat control
Trump is anti-transgender. The irony is that he's the first former president to get ear piercing.
Quote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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etc.
Wasn't it a foregone conclusion that Hilary was going to win? "I don't even think about him anymore."
And then what happened?
Like when a pro is making that long put. It should go right in but...lot of green! Lot of green!
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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I just want to know what idiots are still throwing their money away betting on Michelle Obama to win.....LOL
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Same ones who bet the Browns to win the superbowl preseason every year.
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More like betting on the Yankees to win the Super Bowl preseason. At least the Browns are actually in the NFL. Michelle Obama couldn't have made it clearer that she's not running.
Wonder how the odds markets will react to this.
Quote: BillHasRetiredHuh. Joe Biden has asserted that nothing but God could force him to withdraw from the race, But he just did an interview with BET, wherein he said “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem,” then he would drop out.
Wonder how the odds markets will react to this.
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I have heard neurological doctors on TV say that what is needed is an MRI of the brain. Vascular dementia (the 2nd most common form of dementia, behind Alzheimer's) is what some doctors are worried about, and it can be definitively diagnosed or definitively ruled out by a brain MRI. Seems to me it would be a win-win to order such an MRI, no matter what it does or doesn't show. It's so frustrating to have politicians looking at poll data rather than doctors looking at medical data.
I can't imagine what the odds markets would do if Biden even announced his intentions to have an MRI brain scan.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: BillHasRetiredHuh. Joe Biden has asserted that nothing but God could force him to withdraw from the race, But he just did an interview with BET, wherein he said “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem,” then he would drop out.
Wonder how the odds markets will react to this.
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I have heard neurological doctors on TV say that what is needed is an MRI of the brain. Vascular dementia (the 2nd most common form of dementia, behind Alzheimer's) is what some doctors are worried about, and it can be definitively diagnosed or definitively ruled out by a brain MRI. Seems to me it would be a win-win to order such an MRI, no matter what it does or doesn't show. It's so frustrating to have politicians looking at poll data rather than doctors looking at medical data.
I can't imagine what the odds markets would do if Biden even announced his intentions to have an MRI brain scan.
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Can’t expect one to do so without the other candidate also doing so. Should probably be a requirement of any of any politician of eligible age for collecting full social security.
Quote: MDawgQuote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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etc.
Wasn't it a foregone conclusion that Hilary was going to win? "I don't even think about him anymore."
And then what happened?
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On this day, July 17, in 2016, RealClearPolitics had the betting odds as follows:
Clinton: 70%
Trump: 30%
She ended election night at 88% to Trump's 13%.
At 6am on election day in 2016, bettingelections.com had Clinton at -500 and Trump at +350.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: gordonm888Quote: BillHasRetiredHuh. Joe Biden has asserted that nothing but God could force him to withdraw from the race, But he just did an interview with BET, wherein he said “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem,” then he would drop out.
Wonder how the odds markets will react to this.
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I have heard neurological doctors on TV say that what is needed is an MRI of the brain. Vascular dementia (the 2nd most common form of dementia, behind Alzheimer's) is what some doctors are worried about, and it can be definitively diagnosed or definitively ruled out by a brain MRI. Seems to me it would be a win-win to order such an MRI, no matter what it does or doesn't show. It's so frustrating to have politicians looking at poll data rather than doctors looking at medical data.
I can't imagine what the odds markets would do if Biden even announced his intentions to have an MRI brain scan.
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Can’t expect one to do so without the other candidate also doing so. Should probably be a requirement of any of any politician of eligible age for collecting full social security.
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I agree.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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I just want to know what idiots are still throwing their money away betting on Michelle Obama to win.....LOL
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If the odds were higher I would bet on it. Give me odds of 10 million to one I would bet that we find unicorns on the moon during my lifetime. I have a $1 burning a hole in my pocket.
Quote: MDawgQuote: EvenBobEverybody has Trump in the mid 60s to 70 now since Saturday.
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etc.
Wasn't it a foregone conclusion that Hilary was going to win? "I don't even think about him anymore."
And then what happened?
Like when a pro is making that long put. It should go right in but...lot of green! Lot of green!
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It's not that difficult to figure out. The polls all summer in 2016 were weighted to favor Hillary when actually the race was much closer than people realized. Then in the last 10 days before the election a whole bunch of stuff happened that put Hillary in a really bad light and pushed voters over to Trump. Her collapsing at the 9/11 ceremony and being thrown into the back of a van did not help her either.
Let the markets rock!
Quote: BillHasRetiredBiden apparently has tested positive for COVID, and has flown back to Delaware instead of Washington, DC. He's cancelled everything for the next 6 days or so.
Let the markets rock!
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??????
I don't think the markets go up or down due to Biden having covid
What is your logic?
He tested positive yesterday and my tech stocks tanked.
Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday
Now if Jerome Powell got covid
That's a different story
He has way way way more influence on the markets then old man Biden
Powell himself could rock the market just by mentioning a fed rate cut
Same situation on Realclearpolitics. Harris and Biden have switched, and Trump lost several points.
Quote: terapined\
??????
I don't think the markets go up or down due to Biden having covid
What is your logic?
I think Biden having COVID makes it slightly more likely that he will drop out.
I believe that would as well solve funding issues and over all could boost Democratic chances to win the election.
Quote: MDawgBiden could resign the Presidency, Harris steps in to nominate Biden VP and then they move forward as a designated one two punch on the party nomination ticket too. The resignation and nomination aren’t integral to the third step but it makes it all come together.
I believe that would as well solve funding issues and over all could boost Democratic chances to win the election.
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Such a move would come off as pure banana republic. I think it would play awful.
As far as whom Harris picks for her VP on the Democratic party ticket, she is free to choose whomever.
What is banana republic about any of that?
There was talk of this one-two punch in the annals of history, I read about Ford and Reagan combining forces, so why not Harris / Biden.
Remembering the Reagan-Ford ‘Co-Presidency’ That Could Have Been
Quote: MDawgAs far as ratifying the new VP, he has to be ratified by a majority vote of both houses of Congress.
As far as whom Harris picks for her VP on the Democratic party ticket, she is free to choose whomever.
What is banana republic about any of that?
There was talk of this one-two punch in the annals of history, I read about Ford and Reagan combining forces, so why not Harris / Biden.
Remembering the Reagan-Ford ‘Co-Presidency’ That Could Have Been
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What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
As far as the odds of winning this election, at this point it looks like mainstream democrats made a strategic error in ‘20 in who the chosen one was when they colluded to sack Bernie, probably shoulda picked someone younger.
Quote: MDawgAs far as ratifying the new VP, he has to be confirmed by a majority vote of both houses of Congress.
As far as whom Harris picks for her VP on the Democratic party ticket, she is free to choose whomever.
What is banana republic about any of that?
There was talk of this one-two punch in the annals of history, I read about Ford and Reagan combining forces, so why not Harris / Biden.
Remembering the Reagan-Ford ‘Co-Presidency’ That Could Have Been
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A Potus stepping down then running as VP then presumably a new VP all to keep the campaign contributions is not banana republic sounding to you? Like saying the Pope is Jewish.
Reagan/Ford was discussed well in advance and never got past discussing. Reagan knew Ford represented the past not the future.
At the moment the Democrat Party is playing 4/7 OS with multiple callers. Their choices are not good. Kamala polls bad and is not liked. Biden only polls better because his personality is not so bad. They kind of need to go all in with their dwindling stack and hit the rebuy table in the midterms.
Is anyone running a book on whether/when he steps aside?
Quote: OnceDearBiden with covid? an honourable off ramp for him?
Is anyone running a book on whether/when he steps aside?
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This was precisely my first thought. I imagine he got told we can do this the hard way or the easy way.
Quote: TigerWuIn the last day, Harris' odds of becoming the Dem nominee have skyrocketed and Biden's have plummeted.
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Dick Morris just said the bullet missed Trump and hit Biden.
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. I have no idea as to whether this report is reliable. However, it's certainly interesting that someone is reporting this - part of a seemingly deteriorating situation for the President. Certainly consistent with the shift in the published odds.
Quote: gordonm888On Newsmax, they are stating that a reporter named Mark Halperin says sources tell him that Biden has agreed to step down as the Democrat candidate and will do so this coming weekend. No other news networks seem to be reporting this.
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. I have no idea as to whether this report is reliable. However, it's certainly interesting that someone is reporting this - part of a seemingly deteriorating situation for the President. Certainly consistent with the shift in the published odds.
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Based on a lot of other news from today I would not doubt this report.
Quote: gordonm888On Newsmax, they are stating that a reporter named Mark Halperin says sources tell him that Biden has agreed to step down as the Democrat candidate and will do so this coming weekend. No other news networks seem to be reporting this.
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. I have no idea as to whether this report is reliable. However, it's certainly interesting that someone is reporting this - part of a seemingly deteriorating situation for the President. Certainly consistent with the shift in the published odds.
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There are lots of rumblings. Probably intentional leaks. Kind of a bad time what with the Olympics starting in a week. Going to have zero time for messaging. Question is do the rising stars fall into line of do they end up with a floor fight at the convention?
Quote: gordonm888On Newsmax, they are stating that a reporter named Mark Halperin says sources tell him that Biden has agreed to step down as the Democrat candidate and will do so this coming weekend. No other news networks seem to be reporting this.
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. I have no idea as to whether this report is reliable. However, it's certainly interesting that someone is reporting this - part of a seemingly deteriorating situation for the President. Certainly consistent with the shift in the published odds.
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I believe Mark Halperin got outed as a sexual predator during the Me Too movement and has not regained his credibility since then in the eyes of most people.
I don't think the blue team has broken into civil war factions yet but they're driving awfully close to the Fort Sumter onramp. Imagine if they show up divided at the convention and surrounded by groups of Antifa, pro-Palestinians, and anti-oil environmentalists (armed with soup cans). Good show. If I were a Chicago store owner I'd be checking my insurance and making sure I have plenty of nails and sheets of plywood on hand.
Quote: GialmereThe Biden camp is firing back, essentially flipping the bird at Obama, Schumer, and Pelosi. They point out that these are the people that had Biden step aside in 2016 to let Clinton run. (That event really sticks in the Biden family craw.) Hilary lost thus giving the country Donald Trump. So they were wrong then and they are wrong now, the White House concludes.
I don't think the blue team has broken into civil war factions yet but they're driving awfully close to the Fort Sumter onramp. Imagine if they show up divided at the convention and surrounded by groups of Antifa, pro-Palestinians, and anti-oil environmentalists (armed with soup cans). Good show. If I were a Chicago store owner I'd be checking my insurance and making sure I have plenty of nails and sheets of plywood on hand.
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1968 here we come!
But then again, my motto of “no one knows anything” about this election still stands.
I've seen the name before, but could not quite remember his fides, so I looked it up so the community doesn't have to. From his Wikipedia page...Quote: gordonm888...snip...
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. ...snip...
(sniped from original post for clarity
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Mark Helprin (born June 28, 1947) is an American-Israeli novelist, journalist, conservative commentator, Senior Fellow of the Claremont Institute for the Study of Statesmanship and Political Philosophy, Fellow of the American Academy in Rome, and Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. While Helprin's fictional works straddle a number of disparate genres and styles, he has stated that he "belongs to no literary school, movement, tendency, or trend".
Helprin's writing has appeared in The New Yorker for two decades. He writes essays and a column for the Claremont Review of Books. His writings, including political op-eds, have appeared in The Wall Street Journal (for which he was a contributing editor until 2006), The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, The Atlantic Monthly, The New Criterion, National Review, American Heritage, and other publications.
TL;DR: He's an academic, on the conservative side, and enjoys a generally good reputation on his side of the political spectrum.
Quote: BillHasRetiredI've seen the name before, but could not quite remember his fides, so I looked it up so the community doesn't have to. From his Wikipedia page...Quote: gordonm888...snip...
I don't know who Mark Halperin is. ...snip...
(sniped from original post for clarity
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Mark Helprin (born June 28, 1947) is an American-Israeli novelist, journalist, conservative commentator, Senior Fellow of the Claremont Institute for the Study of Statesmanship and Political Philosophy, Fellow of the American Academy in Rome, and Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. While Helprin's fictional works straddle a number of disparate genres and styles, he has stated that he "belongs to no literary school, movement, tendency, or trend".
Helprin's writing has appeared in The New Yorker for two decades. He writes essays and a column for the Claremont Review of Books. His writings, including political op-eds, have appeared in The Wall Street Journal (for which he was a contributing editor until 2006), The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, The Atlantic Monthly, The New Criterion, National Review, American Heritage, and other publications.
TL;DR: He's an academic, on the conservative side, and enjoys a generally good reputation on his side of the political spectrum.
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Was there any mention of him forcibly pressing his erection up against women who worked for him on his Wikipedia page?
Quote: terapinedQuote: BillHasRetiredBiden apparently has tested positive for COVID, and has flown back to Delaware instead of Washington, DC. He's cancelled everything for the next 6 days or so.
Let the markets rock!
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??????
I don't think the markets go up or down due to Biden having covid
What is your logic?
He tested positive yesterday and my tech stocks tanked.
Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday
Now if Jerome Powell got covid
That's a different story
He has way way way more influence on the markets then old man Biden
Powell himself could rock the market just by mentioning a fed rate cut
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I could well ask where your logic is behind your statement "Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday"
The simple fact is: the betting markets are highly affected, sometimes irrationally, by information. And the odds of Biden being reelected seem to be highly linked to his health, particularly at his age. CoVid-19's mortality and morbidity is skewed towards the elderly, and those in weakened conditions. Given Biden's visibile frailty, I would be unsurprised to find pro-Biden markets reacting negatively to a CoVid-19 diagnosis. My remark to 'let the markets rock' referred to activity/volume of betting but not necessarily in any particular direction. I do believe that has occurred, due as much to his CoVid status as to continued fallout from the debate and sequelae.
