Betting the 2017 Academy Awards

My long time followers know that I have been betting the Academy Awards since 2004. My strategy is simple -- bet the big favorites. The winners are mostly known in advance so it has been mostly easy money. The biggest upset was Crash beating out Brokeback Mountain for best picture in 2005. Brokeback was about a -450 favorite.

I'm glad I completely forgot to both bet and watch the awards yesterday. A few times in the day I said to myself that when I get to my computer I need to bet. However, every time I got there, I just forgot. Maybe because I saw so few movies nominated this year that I just didn't care.

Glad I forgot! There was a huge upset for Best Picture. La La Land was a -700 favorite. The announcer even called them as the winner. However, you've probably heard by now there was a Steve Harvey incident of the wrong winner being called. The actual winner was Moonlight*. Below is an uncut video of the fiasco. So, in case anyone was worried that I jumped off a bridge last night, I'm fine.

* Corrected

I found it hilarious. Did you also see that they had the wrong picture of someone during the dead people thing?

The Russians hacked the show.

Quote: Wizard

The actual winner was Dreamland.

Moonlight.

Did any Vegas books accept bets on the Oscars? I was under the impression that the Gaming Commission authorized it this year.

Meanwhile, I wonder how many people who bet on La La Land collected before the mistake was announced...

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Did any Vegas books accept bets on the Oscars? I was under the impression that the Gaming Commission authorized it this year.

I didn't hear of any. I know they liberalized what you can bet on but I don't know the specifics. I did see some bets on the Olympics. The rule there is you can't bet on events where the winner is largely determined by judges, like gymnastics.

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Meanwhile, I wonder how many people who bet on La La Land collected before the mistake was announced...

In my experience, Internet sports books usually take an hour or so to pay on anything. For example, if you bet whether the first score would be a touchdown in the Super Bowl, and you won, it would take about an hour to get paid. In the event anybody paid it immediately, I think they would take the funds back with a word of explanation.

Same here.

I used to be a big film buff, but now I have no clue what any of these movies are about. Even back then, I never cared about the oscars, or most of the films nominated, but I was at least aware that they were going on and knew about the films. I was saved by my ignorance of the outside world.

However, I might just check out Moonlight. A friend with reasonable taste says it is the best film he's seen in 5 years. There's no way I'll like it THAT much, but I'm open to the idea that it's an excellent film.

I miss the days of only having 5 Best Picture nominees.

Opening it up to possibly having 10 a year is too many. It dilutes the prestige of the award.

I would think it dilutes the prestige of being a non-winning nominee.

The winner is still the best of the year, not the best of 5 or best of 10. Then again, best of 10 is better than best of 5. So maybe winning is now MORE prestigious...

Quote: Wizard

..... However, you've probably heard by now there was a Steve Harvey incident of the wrong winner being called.

This was actually an "Academy" or "Price Waterhouse Coopers" incident, depending on who is actually in charge of sealing the envelopes and delivering them to the onstage announcement celebrities. I felt bad for Warren & Faye as they likely will be linked to this "incident" forever, when in fact Warren was given the wrong envelope or had a duplicate envelope from Best Actress that was given to him prior to going on stage.

I thought he was messing around trying to be comedic when he took a 2nd look in the envelope...but he was looking at a card that said "Emma Stone/La La Land" (the winner of the Best Actress Award announced immediately before Best Picture) and didn't know what to do. Faye then mistakenly thought he was joking around and just read out La La Land,. This is on the Academy or PWC, and I think it is the latter, so it will be very interesting to hear the fallout at Price Waterhouse Coopers and whether they retain the Academy Awards as a client.

Quote: Paradigm

so it will be very interesting to hear the fallout at Price Waterhouse Coopers and whether they retain the Academy Awards as a client.

Nothing like screwing up on the biggest award of the night when they had all those others to choose from.

Quote: ams288

Opening it up to possibly having 10 a year is too many. It dilutes the prestige of the award.

I think the reason was with only five nominees the Academy was picking too many obscure foreign movies that few people saw. Not only have I never seen Moonlight, I've never even heard of it before today. The other five were supposed to give movies the masses actually saw a nod.

Quote: Paradigm

I thought he was messing around trying to be comedic when he took a 2nd look in the envelope...but he was looking at a card that said "Emma Stone/La La Land" (the winner of the Best Actress Award announced immediately before Best Picture) and didn't know what to do. Faye then mistakenly thought he was joking around and just read out La La Land,. This is on the Academy or PWC, and I think it is the latter, so it will be very interesting to hear the fallout at Price Waterhouse Coopers and whether they retain the Academy Awards as a client.

If PWC gave him that envelope, and who else would have, then they deserve the lion's share of the blame. Nevertheless, at least one of two presenters should have paused and said that something wasn't right. Especially after the Steve Harvey incident, which showed such mix ups are possible.

They are talking about PWC and the process right now on TV...the thought seems to be that they will not be retained after this mistake.

"Citizen Kane" lost to "How Green Was My Valley" so this year's upset certainly wasn't the most egregious in the Academy's history.

Quote: Wizard

My long time followers know that I have been betting the Academy Awards since 2004. My strategy is simple -- bet the big favorites.... I'm glad I completely forgot to both bet and watch the awards yesterday. A few times in the day I said to myself that when I get to my computer I need to bet. However, every time I got there, I just forgot.

You dodged a bullet this year, congrats!

Quote: Wizard

Not that anyone asked, but I'm planning to sit out betting in the Oscars this year. I'm sick of risking $5,000 to end up winning $50.

That quote is from February 26, 2016.

Have you learned your lesson? Are you going to bet next year? With a low stakes bankroll (less than $100 or $200) I could see it being entertaining. It's hard to justify betting $5,000 to win $50, since upsets (while rare) aren't impossible.

The only one of these shows that would matter to me are the people's choice awards. That's the only one where it's not the same people just patting themselves on the back.

Quote: Wizard

Not that anyone asked, but I'm planning to sit out betting in the Oscars this year. I'm sick of risking $5,000 to end up winning $50.

I totally forgot I said that. Thanks for the reminder. The reason I won only a little last year was losing on an upset in some minor category most people don't care about. Had I bet this year, I would have stuck to just the big six.

Quote: reno

You dodged a bullet this year, congrats!

Thanks. Just goes to show what I sometimes say -- when in doubt, don't bet.

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Have you learned your lesson? Are you going to bet next year? With a low stakes bankroll (less than $100 or $200) I could see it being entertaining. It's hard to justify betting $5,000 to win $50, since upsets (while rare) aren't impossible.

Certainly not planning to at this point. Someone please remind me of this after the Super Bowl, when I normally start to think about betting the Oscars.

Quote: Wizard

... Someone please remind me of this after the Super Bowl, when I normally start to think about betting the Oscars.

AFTER the Super Bowl? After the SB beating you took this year to squeak out a tiny profit, I think you might want us to remind you about THAT in about 11 months.

But why wait 11 months? I'll remind you now: I got your check. Thanks for the speedy payoff. (I meant to tell you two weeks ago.)

It was a comedy show :D Next year award winner is this year ceremony