BitCoin
ZCore13
Terrorist funding- who cares
Tax evasion - now there's a killer
Since bitcoins on the contrary are sometimes literally lost, i.e. bitcoin holders simply pass away together with their encryption keys, or accidentally forgetting/deleting their keys.... doesn't that imply that the BTC exchange rate is expected to only rise (due to more and more limited supplies?)....
... but if that's the case, where is the equivalency in real economics to that rising value while the only thing changing is "tomorrow they are less in circulation than today" ? I mean at some future point there must be a major correction to that in the exchange rate....
Second thought, If the founders were somehow smart, they would have already gathered a good portion of bitcoins before going public, held it back, and nobody would know. With these early bitcoins comming back into circulation without notice, the common statement "bitcoins are limited, they can't be reprinted" is technically true, but this does not imply any lack of monetary policy.
What are the common thoughts about that ?
if you are a criminal and want to put a hit on somebody, Bitcoin is how you do it. If you want to launder a bunch of money, Bit coin is how you do it. It's just a matter of time. Its a ticking time bomb.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13most likely you would have sold before now if you would have purchased it at five dollars. And more importantly, the first time it funds some sort of terrorist activity or something major like that its going to come crashing down and cease to exist when the government gets done with it.
ZCore13
I haven't sold the silver. I could get a few grand out now and watch as it keep climbing :)
Quote: bigfoot66I haven't sold the silver. I could get a few grand out now and watch as it keep climbing :)
When did you buy silver two years ago and watched it "keep climbing?"
Quote: Maverick17When did you buy silver two years ago and watched it "keep climbing?"
I phrased that poorly. I had some money to speculate with a few years ago and was gonna buy either silver or bitcoin or both. Silver was $40 an ounce and bit coin was around $7. I bought the silver and it has lost money. If I had bought the Bitcoin I could sell some now, buy a house, and then watch it keep climbing with the rest of the investment.
Quote: Zcore13All of these fake currencies are in for some trouble.
ZCore13
Fake currency? Are you referring to the US dollar? The Bitcoin idea is pure genus! Bitcoins are here to stay.
Quote: treetopbuddyFake currency? Are you referring to the US dollar? The Bitcoin idea is pure genus! Bitcoins are here to stay.
Says the guy arrested for having large amounts of cash and drug paraphernalia in his car. It's the currency of criminals.
Quote: treetopbuddyThe dog hits on my car. Cops open truck and find plastic bin and some baggies and a vacuum sealer. No pot but a dank marijuana smell. They then search car and find 35K. They take me to Colby. Read my rights. I asked for attorney. The dog hits on the money so I'm hit with a property forfeiture.
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13It's the currency of criminals.
Looking towards China, it's more the currency of the monetary oppressed.
Quote: Zcore13Says the guy arrested for having large amounts of cash and drug paraphernalia in his car. It's the currency of criminals.
ZCore13
I'm far from a criminal, pal. Do the Bitcoins scare you?
Quote: treetopbuddyFake currency? Are you referring to the US dollar? The Bitcoin idea is pure genus! Bitcoins are here to stay.
As you are aware of the intrinsic value of FRN's gone digital, I don't understand how people believe that bitcoins are any safer?
I think you are aware that virtually every keystroke and ALL electronic media is being stored, correct? You are probably knowledgeable about bitcoin mining and the vault being robbed several times already including at least one major confiscation by the feds. Also, the internet switch, operative since being outed by an at&t employee much to the chagrin of Bush2.
Have you ever read up on "tulip mania" or a cargo cult? Now that there are competing digital currency's being traded and wall street getting in on the action trading in the bc's, somebody is going to get hurt bigtime. Wall street is already arbitraging bc value between asia and the west with a hundred point drop today, pumping and dumping.
I can see daytrading in them for profit but without any intrinsic value they don't seem like a store of value. Just saying
We've all seen the story's lately about the nsa's capability of reading all electronic media why does bitcoin seem like stealth money to enthusiasts?
Quote: petroglyphAs you are aware of the intrinsic value of FRN's gone digital, I don't understand how people believe that bitcoins are any safer?
I think you are aware that virtually every keystroke and ALL electronic media is being stored, correct? You are probably knowledgeable about bitcoin mining and the vault being robbed several times already including at least one major confiscation by the feds. Also, the internet switch, operative since being outed by an at&t employee much to the chagrin of Bush2.
Have you ever read up on "tulip mania" or a cargo cult? Now that there are competing digital currency's being traded and wall street getting in on the action trading in the bc's, somebody is going to get hurt bigtime. Wall street is already arbitraging bc value between asia and the west with a hundred point drop today, pumping and dumping.
I can see daytrading in them for profit but without any intrinsic value they don't seem like a store of value. Just saying
We've all seen the story's lately about the nsa's capability of reading all electronic media why does bitcoin seem like stealth money to enthusiasts?
All good points. It's my understanding that only 21,000,000 bitcoins can be mined. The idea that the coins are earned (mined) and limited to 21,000,000 is intriguing to me. No doubt the coins value will see wild fluctuations as they are being traded/speculation. Bitcoins have a small float and the value can really be worked. Unlimited number of tulips I must say.
Quote: treetopbuddyAll good points. It's my understanding that only 21,000,000 bitcoins can be mined. The idea that the coins are earned (mined) and limited to 21,000,000 is intriguing to me. No doubt the coins value will see wild fluctuations as they are being traded/speculation. Bitcoins have a small float and the value can really be worked. Unlimited number of tulips I must say.
BaiduBank of AmericaBank of AmericaBitcoinChinaCitigroupHFT
[from zero hedge]
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inShare.9
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It was inevitable that a few short days after Wall Street lovingly embraced Bitcoin as their own, with analysts from Bank of America, Citigroup and others, not to mention the clueless momentum-chasing, peanut gallery vocally flip-flopping on the "currency" after hating it at $200 only to love it at $1200 that Bitcoin... would promptly crash. And crash it did: overnight, following previously reported news that China's Baidu would follow the PBOC in halting acceptance of Bitcoin payment, Bitcoin tumbled from a recent high of $1155 to an almost electronically destined "half-off" touching $576 hours ago, exactly 50% lower, on very heave volume, before a dead cat bounce levitated the currency back to the $800 range, where it may or may not stay much longer, especially if all those who jumped on the bandwagon at over $1000 on "get rich quick" hopes and dreams, only to see massive losses in their P&Ls decide they have had enough.
Which incidentally, like gold, is to be expected when one treats what is explicitly as a currency on its own merits in a world of dying fiat - with the appropriate much required patience - instead of as an asset, with delusions of grandure that some greater fool will pay more for it tomorrow than it is worth today. Sadly, in a world of HFT trading, patience is perhaps the most valuable commodity.
As for Bitcoin, while the bubble may or may not have burst, and is for now kept together with the help of the Winklevoss bros bid, all it would take is for another very vocal institutiona rejection be it in China or domestically, where its "honeypot" features are no longer of use to the Fed or other authorities, for the euphoria to disappear as quickly as it came...
Two day chart, showing the epic move from $1155 to $576 in hours:
Quote: petroglyphBaiduBank of AmericaBank of AmericaBitcoinChinaCitigroupHFT
[from zero hedge]
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inShare.9
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It was inevitable that a few short days after Wall Street lovingly embraced Bitcoin as their own, with analysts from Bank of America, Citigroup and others, not to mention the clueless momentum-chasing, peanut gallery vocally flip-flopping on the "currency" after hating it at $200 only to love it at $1200 that Bitcoin... would promptly crash. And crash it did: overnight, following previously reported news that China's Baidu would follow the PBOC in halting acceptance of Bitcoin payment, Bitcoin tumbled from a recent high of $1155 to an almost electronically destined "half-off" touching $576 hours ago, exactly 50% lower, on very heave volume, before a dead cat bounce levitated the currency back to the $800 range, where it may or may not stay much longer, especially if all those who jumped on the bandwagon at over $1000 on "get rich quick" hopes and dreams, only to see massive losses in their P&Ls decide they have had enough.
Which incidentally, like gold, is to be expected when one treats what is explicitly as a currency on its own merits in a world of dying fiat - with the appropriate much required patience - instead of as an asset, with delusions of grandure that some greater fool will pay more for it tomorrow than it is worth today. Sadly, in a world of HFT trading, patience is perhaps the most valuable commodity.
As for Bitcoin, while the bubble may or may not have burst, and is for now kept together with the help of the Winklevoss bros bid, all it would take is for another very vocal institutiona rejection be it in China or domestically, where its "honeypot" features are no longer of use to the Fed or other authorities, for the euphoria to disappear as quickly as it came...
Two day chart, showing the epic move from $1155 to $576 in hours:
Great insight....it's going to be fun to watch the Bitcoin thing play out.
Yes, he threw away £500k, which does hurt, but nowhere near $8M.
The Bitcoin Derivatives Market Has Arrived
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/08/2013 13:25 -0500
BitcoinfixedVolatility
Having discussed the advantages and disadvantages of the crypto-currency and noted the extreme volatility of the last few weeks, it seemed only a matter of time before some ambitious entrepreneur tried to monetize the volatility. What better way to "manage the risk" of your virtual currency horde than buying (or selling) options (in a more levered way). Predictious, the Dublin-based prediction market, this week unveiled Bitcoin Option Spreads enabling both long- and short-positions to be constructed on the already extremely volatile 'asset'. Regulatory clamp-down in 3..2..1...
The basic mechanism is the same as every option spread market - a fixed payoff for getting the "bet" correct, in this case 10.
In the case below, the bet was that Bitcoin will (or will not) close at $1400 on Wednesday January 1st at 12:00am,
if you believe it will (close at or above $1400) you "buy" the contract at 3.49 (and should you be proven correct you are paid 10 - thus gaining 6.51, similar to buying a call option)...
if you believe it will not reach $1400, you "sell" the contract at 0.55 (and should you be proven correct you pocket the 0.55 and pay out 0.00 - just like writing a call option)
Quite a skew has developed already...
As Predictious notes,
Predictious is now bringing this to the next level by offering a new type of derivative contract: option spreads on the price of Bitcoin. In the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin has been extremely volatile, and it is important for traders to be able to reduce risk, and hedge their Bitcoin position. They can now do so in an easy and cost efficient way by using option spreads.
Option spreads are very versatile, while still offering limited risks. A bullish investor can use a vertical spread to benefit from Bitcoin gains, while limiting risks if the price crashes.
On the other hand, bearish investors can use them to short Bitcoin. Predictious is currently one of the most reliable way to do so. Since losses are limited with option spreads, investors are not exposed to counterparty risks, like they would be when trading futures on competing services.
Aside from Bitcoin traders, miners can also use spreads on the Bitcoin difficulty to reduce risks associated with investing in mining hardware.
To date, Predictious users have deposited over $300,000 in Bitcoin on the website.
“Traders are obviously very interested in Bitcoin derivatives, but the number of businesses accepting payments in Bitcoin has surged in the past few months”, said Flavien Charlon, Founder of Pixode, “those businesses have expenses in US Dollar, or Euro, and need to hedge their Bitcoin position. The type of derivatives we are offering will be very useful to them as well”.
The bottom-line is that while we can see the 'use' of such a market to enabling some lower cost hedging of any wealth one might have gathered in Bitcoin, we suspect - just as in the case of many other assets - that the underlying asset will see its volatility rise as the derivative (and levered) markets becomes the tail that wags the dog.
Quote: MangoJ"At the time he obliviously threw them away, the 7,500 Bitcoins on the hard-drive were worth around £500,000. "
Yes, he threw away £500k, which does hurt, but nowhere near $8M.
The cost of throwing away that hard drive fluctuates every day.
When Bitcoin hit $1,300 that hard drive held nearly 10 million in Bitcoin.
At the current market rate, the cost of discarding that hard drive is around $5.6 million.
Quote: TankoThe cost of throwing away that hard drive fluctuates every day.
Sure, but he didn't throw it away today, he did it in mid-summer.
Just because someone didn't buy Google shares in the 90s makes him somewhat lose a substantial amount, and equivalently someone who sold his Google shares in the 90s didn't make any substatial loss.
You need to evaluate all decisions with the measures at the time of the decision. In retrospection any past decision seems easy and any mistake seems costly. But that is not the correct evaluation on past decisions. Taking the dealers bust card doesn't make your neighbors hand lose at the blackjack table.
If you believe Bitcoin are worth a certain value, and another shares your belief, then the Bitcoin has that value.
It is the same with the US Dollar. if I believe four dollars is worth a gallon of gas and the operator of the Shell station on the corner also believes that those four dollars are worth a gallon of gas, then we are both happy.
If you have a certain number of Bitcoin and you can exchange those Bitcoin for a certain commodity or service, and both are happy with the transaction, then the Bitcoin has that value.
Unfortunately, I can't use bitcoin to pay my taxes, or my credit cards, or my gas station or supermarket... so until I can Bitcoin are worthless to me.
If however, I was making purchases in some market that accepted Bitcoin, then my view of Bitcoin would be different.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAll currency, no matter what it is, and no matter who issues it or who uses it, is only as good as the amount of belief users have in it.
If you believe Bitcoin are worth a certain value, and another shares your belief, then the Bitcoin has that value.
It is the same with the US Dollar. if I believe four dollars is worth a gallon of gas and the operator of the Shell station on the corner also believes that those four dollars are worth a gallon of gas, then we are both happy.
If you have a certain number of Bitcoin and you can exchange those Bitcoin for a certain commodity or service, and both are happy with the transaction, then the Bitcoin has that value.
Unfortunately, I can't use bitcoin to pay my taxes, or my credit cards, or my gas station or supermarket... so until I can Bitcoin are worthless to me.
If however, I was making purchases in some market that accepted Bitcoin, then my view of Bitcoin would be different.
I was about to write this post pretty much word for word and Alan beat me too it. As a former Econ. major this sums up my view of Bitcoin perfectly. The marketplace will ultimately decide it's value. As it's doing everyday already. But right now it's still a pretty risky gamble....all currency/banking/investments are a gamble. But with risk comes reward obviously. I know a $100 bill printed by the good ole USA is worth $100 anywhere I go, and it's value is unlikely to fluctuate much(at least for the foreseeable future)....Bitcoin not so much. So hence Bitcoin shouldn't be for the faint of heart.
Quote: AlanMendelsonso until I can Bitcoin are worthless to me.
So in essence you would not buy Bitcoins for any price, because you cannot get any gas with it. That's perfectly fine. But could you imagine that some day you can do ?
If you can imagine that, do you think the probability for an somehow usable acceptable is astronomically low ? Or is it at least some percent ? Given some probability, an estimated cost in producing a bitcoin (i.e. hardware cost and electricity) and you could find a (subjective) price which would be fair to you. Of course this is speculation, but unless you think it's absolutely impossible it should have a (subjective) value for you. This value might be much lower than the current market value - fair enough.
I agree with what your saying. He didn't toss out 5 mill. He had no clue what they would be worth or he would have told his GF to shut up and let him mine, we are going to be millionaires.Quote: MangoJSure, but he didn't throw it away today, he did it in mid-summer.
Just because someone didn't buy Google shares in the 90s makes him somewhat lose a substantial amount, and equivalently someone who sold his Google shares in the 90s didn't make any substatial loss.
You need to evaluate all decisions with the measures at the time of the decision. In retrospection any past decision seems easy and any mistake seems costly. But that is not the correct evaluation on past decisions. Taking the dealers bust card doesn't make your neighbors hand lose at the blackjack table.
Certainly everyone who tossed out old baseball cards didn't toss out millions of dollars at the time.
ZCore13
Some are guessing it could take a 100 years to unlock all the Bitcons. 21,000,000 in all...
Bitcoins, one day may become the currency of the internet. Person to person transactions offer too much freedom for governments to tolerate. A decentralized infrastructure is anathema to governments. Like anything the government tries to control, the product/service becomes better.
Quote: treetopbuddyI'm trying to get my mind around the Bitcoin craze. Have done a fair amount of reading on the subject. Fascinating stuff.
Some are guessing it could take a 100 years to unlock all the Bitcons. 21,000,000 in all...
Bitcoins, one day may become the currency of the internet. Person to person transactions offer too much freedom for governments to tolerate. A decentralized infrastructure is anathema to governments. Like anything the government tries to control, the product/service becomes better.
Just watched a show on tv today about the drug trade... the lady doing the dealing online in Seattle I think it was only accepted BITCOIN for sales
Quote: MangoJSo in essence you would not buy Bitcoins for any price, because you cannot get any gas with it. That's perfectly fine. But could you imagine that some day you can do ?
Bitcoins will not be for buying gasoline. They will remain a speculative commodity.
Explain please.Quote: FleaStiffWhen the US Treasury seized The Silk Road, the US Government became one of the major holders of BitCoins.
I want as much information on BC as possible. I would love to hear peoples theories and speculation on everything BC.
Quote: AxelWolfExplain please.
I want as much information on BC as possible. I would love to hear peoples theories and speculation on everything BC.
I think we have TWO bitcoin threads on WoV and TWO on our humor/other/non-gambling site: Diversity Tomorrow.
The FBI/Secret Service/Treasury seized a website used solely for facilitating trade in drugs known as The Silk Road and alleged it is run by a US Citizen who was first to comment about. This seizure is that same as any other asset seizure wherein the US Marshalls have control of Porn Publishers or Nudie Bars or anything else. So the US govt will make decisions to administer the BitCoins that it seized.
China nixed BitCoins but they bounced back anyway.
Some math types broke much of the code by a parallel method of LISTENING to a particular chip perform a calculation (was this bitcode or encryption, my memory fails me).
Frankly I think your best source is Bitcoin on Slashdot... see all those public comments for differing and often unqualified views.
Quote: FleaStiffWhen the US Treasury seized The Silk Road, the US Government became one of the major holders of BitCoins.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2014/jan/27/2-bitcoin-operators-charged-ny-silk-road-bust/
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore13It's just a matter of time before it implodes. It's the currency of criminals. When criminals are involved they end up devouring themselves. The code has already been hacked. Governments are shutting it down. It may not disappear. Nothing illegal does. But it's going to be very risky to be involved.
ZCore13
Is there anyway to short Bitcoins?
ZCore13
Quote: BozIs there anyway to short Bitcoins?
Of course. Just find someone from which you borrow bitcoins, then sell it on the market. When you need to repay the loan (plus interest), buy them back from the market.
Quote: Zcore13It's just a matter of time before it implodes. It's the currency of criminals. When criminals are involved they end up devouring themselves. The code has already been hacked. Governments are shutting it down. It may not disappear. Nothing illegal does. But it's going to be very risky to be involved.
Over at Diversity Tomorrow there is a BitCoin thread with a link to the latest Krebs Security newsletter.
I don't know if its the currency of criminals or simply clever criminals know a good thing and are quick to react to it.
If it is the currency of Tax Avoidance.... that is almost universal.
If it is the also the currency of Tax Evasion... in some societies that is universal too.
Think of our Whiskey Rebellion... Wilderness roads and travel conditions made shipping corn impractical. Turning corn into alcohol was the way to transfer wealth. Bitcoins seem to serve a similar purpose.
Quote: FleaStiffOver at Diversity Tomorrow there is a BitCoin thread with a link to the latest Krebs Security newsletter.
I don't know if its the currency of criminals or simply clever criminals know a good thing and are quick to react to it.
If it is the currency of Tax Avoidance.... that is almost universal.
If it is the also the currency of Tax Evasion... in some societies that is universal too.
Think of our Whiskey Rebellion... Wilderness roads and travel conditions made shipping corn impractical. Turning corn into alcohol was the way to transfer wealth. Bitcoins seem to serve a similar purpose.
Great post as usual………the 3D-printed gun as well as Bitcoins are examples of technology being used as an escape from government oversight. More disruptive technology to come.
Quote: FleaStiffI don't know if its the currency of criminals or simply clever criminals know a good thing and are quick to react to it.
Think of our Whiskey Rebellion... Wilderness roads and travel conditions made shipping corn impractical. Turning corn into alcohol was the way to transfer wealth. Bitcoins seem to serve a similar purpose.
The fact that our revolution was founded primarily on tax avoidance is not lost on many advocates. Certainly many people view tax avoidance as a victimless crime.
Quote: pacomartinThe fact that our revolution was founded primarily on tax avoidance is not lost on many advocates. Certainly many people view tax avoidance as a victimless crime.
That's not exactly true. The revolution was primarily on taxation without representation, not tax avoidance. At issue was not the taxes themselves, it was that they believed they had a right to have a say in (via representatives) laws that were created, including taxation laws. This had been a problem in other Countries as well, prior to 1776 and the slogan "taxation without representation" was "borrowed" from other Countries that had used it.
ZCore13
Quote: pacomartinThe fact that our revolution was founded primarily on tax avoidance is not lost on many advocates. Certainly many people view tax avoidance as a victimless crime.
Of course tax avoidance/evasion is a victimless crime. How can the state be the victim? Print more money or run larger deficits or both…..Libs and conservatives don't like BitCoins…..
Quote: pacomartinCertainly many people view tax avoidance as a victimless crime.
Tax avoidance is not a crime.
Tax evasion is a crime though in countries where taxes are assessed on observable wealth, it is considered an art.
Quote: FleaStiff
Tax evasion is a crime though in countries where taxes are assessed on observable wealth, it is considered an art.
Observable wealth would start with anybody that has a job.
2.7 Million bitcoins stolen by hackers
ZCore13
