Unlimited lossback return

I recently received an incentive from an online cryptocurrency-focused casino wherein I get 10% loss back on any losses that lower my all-time loss. I can collect lossback up to 3 times in a 24 hour period, and there is no limit to the amount of loss back I receive. If gamble and lose $1000, and claim lossback, I get $100. If I then go on to lose that $100, I can claim lossback and get $10.

From the math that I have done, this makes many bets have a positive expected value (until I win a bet, at which point the advantage evaporates). Since the casino has a $700,000 max win, I'd imagine the optimal strategy is to bet $70.70 on "dice" (primedice style) at a 9900X multiplier (.01% chance of winning), collecting lossback after each loss. That would result in my receiving $7.07 99.99% of the time and $699,930 .01% of the time for an expected value of $76.9923 ($77.063 after rakeback). That's a 9% edge if I'm doing the math correctly.

With following that strategy, and taking loss back after each bet, I would have a 50% chance of having a win in the first 6923 bets, which would take over 6 years. That could be significantly reduced by doing multiple bets in between lossback claims, or by changing the multiplier/win rate. Is there an established way to calculate the strategy that has the highest annualized rate of return?

Say I just lost 3 $1,000 sessions on roulette, I could collect $100 for each of those. Given that I'm being clowned by the RNG, I have next to no hope of recouping my $3,000 and any further play will bring more loss.

Quote: CrystalMethod

I recently received an incentive from an online cryptocurrency-focused casino wherein I get 10% loss back on any losses that lower my all-time loss. I can collect lossback up to 3 times in a 24 hour period, and there is no limit to the amount of loss back I receive. If gamble and lose $1000, and claim lossback, I get $100. If I then go on to lose that $100, I can claim lossback and get $10.

From the math that I have done, this makes many bets have a positive expected value (until I win a bet, at which point the advantage evaporates). Since the casino has a $700,000 max win, I'd imagine the optimal strategy is to bet $70.70 on "dice" (primedice style) at a 9900X multiplier (.01% chance of winning), collecting lossback after each loss. That would result in my receiving $7.07 99.99% of the time and $699,930 .01% of the time for an expected value of $76.9923 ($77.063 after rakeback). That's a 9% edge if I'm doing the math correctly.

With following that strategy, and taking loss back after each bet, I would have a 50% chance of having a win in the first 6923 bets, which would take over 6 years. That could be significantly reduced by doing multiple bets in between lossback claims, or by changing the multiplier/win rate. Is there an established way to calculate the strategy that has the highest annualized rate of return?
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That’s a lot of trust in
1. The game being fair. It wouldn’t be shocking to find out no one ever wins a 9900 multiplier on larger bets.
2. Actually being paid your $700k after a big win.
3. Depending on an online casino to have the promo still going 6 years from now (not really relevant to the EV I know…)

Great post by the way, and intellectually speaking. I’d never try it.

Your strategy's pretty smart on paper, highlighting how to play the system. Yet, there's the big "if" - trusting the game's fairness and the casino to pay out, especially for something planned over years. There's also the reality of sticking to such a long game plan. Has anyone actually tried something like this? Would love to hear real-world experiences!

The casino in question is the most reputable crypto-based casino (it's the one you're thinking of). It uses a "provably fair" system based around a sha256 hash of a server seed, client seed, and nonce. The hash of the upcoming server seed is shown to the player when they set their client seed. Seeing as no sha256 collisions have ever been discovered, it would be impossible for the casino to change the server seed without changing the hash. The casino has to commit to a server seed before I choose my client seed, so they can't intentionally choose a server seed that doesn't have an upcoming win.

I have (on a different account) withdrawn $280,000 from this casino (of which $250,000 was profit), and they processed the withdrawal within 5 minutes.

I would be more likely to bet $7070.70 per bet at a 99X multiplier. It would take an average of 23 days to get a win, and after rakeback, would come out to exactly a 9% edge.

Are you responding to SooPoo or the AI 'bot?

Did you even notice the intervening post? and if not, why not?

I was trying to respond to both SOOPOO and Morstana's points in one message. I'm sorry if anyone felt snubbed.

Well when you don't seem to notice that someone's a 'bot it makes me wonder if you are one too, or some kind of spammer leading up to promoting some casino, sell some system or some such.

Quote: Morstana

Your strategy's pretty smart on paper, highlighting how to play the system. Yet, there's the big "if" - trusting the game's fairness and the casino to pay out, especially for something planned over years. There's also the reality of sticking to such a long game plan. Has anyone actually tried something like this? Would love to hear real-world experiences!
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You have been randomly chose for a soul test. How many miles are in two miles?

Nope, just trying to exploit an offer I got as a result of being severely in the red.