From the math that I have done, this makes many bets have a positive expected value (until I win a bet, at which point the advantage evaporates). Since the casino has a $700,000 max win, I'd imagine the optimal strategy is to bet $70.70 on "dice" (primedice style) at a 9900X multiplier (.01% chance of winning), collecting lossback after each loss. That would result in my receiving $7.07 99.99% of the time and $699,930 .01% of the time for an expected value of $76.9923 ($77.063 after rakeback). That's a 9% edge if I'm doing the math correctly.

With following that strategy, and taking loss back after each bet, I would have a 50% chance of having a win in the first 6923 bets, which would take over 6 years. That could be significantly reduced by doing multiple bets in between lossback claims, or by changing the multiplier/win rate. Is there an established way to calculate the strategy that has the highest annualized rate of return?

Quote:CrystalMethodI recently received an incentive from an online cryptocurrency-focused casino wherein I get 10% loss back on any losses that lower my all-time loss. I can collect lossback up to 3 times in a 24 hour period, and there is no limit to the amount of loss back I receive. If gamble and lose $1000, and claim lossback, I get $100. If I then go on to lose that $100, I can claim lossback and get $10.

From the math that I have done, this makes many bets have a positive expected value (until I win a bet, at which point the advantage evaporates). Since the casino has a $700,000 max win, I'd imagine the optimal strategy is to bet $70.70 on "dice" (primedice style) at a 9900X multiplier (.01% chance of winning), collecting lossback after each loss. That would result in my receiving $7.07 99.99% of the time and $699,930 .01% of the time for an expected value of $76.9923 ($77.063 after rakeback). That's a 9% edge if I'm doing the math correctly.

With following that strategy, and taking loss back after each bet, I would have a 50% chance of having a win in the first 6923 bets, which would take over 6 years. That could be significantly reduced by doing multiple bets in between lossback claims, or by changing the multiplier/win rate. Is there an established way to calculate the strategy that has the highest annualized rate of return?

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That’s a lot of trust in

1. The game being fair. It wouldn’t be shocking to find out no one ever wins a 9900 multiplier on larger bets.

2. Actually being paid your $700k after a big win.

3. Depending on an online casino to have the promo still going 6 years from now (not really relevant to the EV I know…)

Great post by the way, and intellectually speaking. I’d never try it.

I have (on a different account) withdrawn $280,000 from this casino (of which $250,000 was profit), and they processed the withdrawal within 5 minutes.

I would be more likely to bet $7070.70 per bet at a 99X multiplier. It would take an average of 23 days to get a win, and after rakeback, would come out to exactly a 9% edge.

Did you even notice the intervening post? and if not, why not?

Quote:MorstanaYour strategy's pretty smart on paper, highlighting how to play the system. Yet, there's the big "if" - trusting the game's fairness and the casino to pay out, especially for something planned over years. There's also the reality of sticking to such a long game plan. Has anyone actually tried something like this? Would love to hear real-world experiences!

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You have been randomly chose for a soul test. How many miles are in two miles?