Sportbetting with kickback edge?
is this an illegal 'bookie' or is that your term for a sportsbook?
Quote: Runlikegod777I wasn't sure which forum to post this in, as its a strategy sportsbetting question that I think needs some math to solve. Against a bookie that offers -105 lines (2.5 percent house edge) i get 10 percent kickback at the end week. Obviosuly if i make only 1 bet or 2 bets, I can be +EV end of the week. However, he won't like this and may stop me from playing with him. Is there a way to gain an advantage mathemtically placing bets in the week at -105 odd but getting 10 percent kick at end of week to be +ev longterm
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EXACTLY what do you mean by 10% kickback?
Is that on every dollar you bet? Bet $105 to win $100 and win or lose you get $10.50 back at the end of the week?
Or is it only on losses? Like if you bet that $105 and lose you get $10.50 back but nothing extra back if you win?
Or is it you get 10% of your TOTAL NET loss back at the end of a week? (Generally referred to as a loss rebate).
I’m guessing it’s the last one. If so, and if allowed, you certainly have an advantage making a single weekly bet.
If you have to make multiple bets it will be hard to eke out an edge with only a 10% loss rebate. It is likely possible, and hopefully someone better math trained can answer. I can certainly tell you you you won’t be making a lot.
Quote: AxelWolfCorrect me if I'm wrong but it sounds like around $55 profit with $1,050 unit bets per rebate cycle on single bets. That's assuming they rebate on the vig as well.
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Half the time you win $1000. Half the time you lose $945. So on average you win $55 for every TWO weeks. So only $27.50 each rebate cycle. I think.
I'd want to know I can trust the 'bookie'
Quote: Runlikegod777so its loss rebate if i lose 20000 for week i get back $2000. I understand I have edge with 1 bet, but its small edge, and the book wouldn't like it. I am wondering if there is an edge making 6-7 bets in a week. i can bet $5000 per game with -105 odds (2.5 percent house edge)
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I get an average LOSS of $585 (lots of rounding, may be $570, may be $600). That is making 6 non correlated $5000 bets at -105.
so i guess I need to know how often go 0-6 (earn $3000), how often go 1-5 (earn $2000), how often go 2-4 (earn $1000), as thats when i make $.
Quote: Runlikegod777This is a reputable local book, and I dont have to worry about not being paid, it is settled on credit. I am just trying figure out if i have an edge. on a week i go 2-4 for example i would get back $1000. If i go 1-5 i get back $2000 basically. I am wondering if there is enough varaince to overcome the house edge?
so i guess I need to know how often go 0-6 (earn $3000), how often go 1-5 (earn $2000), how often go 2-4 (earn $1000), as thats when i make $.
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Lots of errors here.
0-6 you don’t actually ‘earn’ $3000, your ‘result is you lose $27,000
1-5 you win $4545 and lose 25,000, so you actually have a result of a 20,455 loss …. Give yourself a $2,045 rebate and your loss is $18,410.
You can do it for 2-4 and 3-3. And the others.
Figuring out how much you IN TOTAL , including the rebate, make or lose, then assigning a probability to each possibility, is the way to figure it out. I did it for you a few posts back.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Runlikegod777This is a reputable local book, and I dont have to worry about not being paid, it is settled on credit. I am just trying figure out if i have an edge. on a week i go 2-4 for example i would get back $1000. If i go 1-5 i get back $2000 basically. I am wondering if there is enough varaince to overcome the house edge?
so i guess I need to know how often go 0-6 (earn $3000), how often go 1-5 (earn $2000), how often go 2-4 (earn $1000), as thats when i make $.
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Lots of errors here.
0-6 you don’t actually ‘earn’ $3000, your ‘result is you lose $27,000
1-5 you win $4545 and lose 25,000, so you actually have a result of a 20,455 loss …. Give yourself a $2,045 rebate and your loss is $18,410.
You can do it for 2-4 and 3-3. And the others.
Figuring out how much you IN TOTAL , including the rebate, make or lose, then assigning a probability to each possibility, is the way to figure it out. I did it for you a few posts back.
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right but i figured I'd go 6-0 jsut as often as 0-6 (like 1.5% time each) so those cancel out 1-5 as often as 5-1.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Runlikegod777so its loss rebate if i lose 20000 for week i get back $2000. I understand I have edge with 1 bet, but its small edge, and the book wouldn't like it. I am wondering if there is an edge making 6-7 bets in a week. i can bet $5000 per game with -105 odds (2.5 percent house edge)
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I get an average LOSS of $585 (lots of rounding, may be $570, may be $600). That is making 6 non correlated $5000 bets at -105.
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I need to know what teh average kick is, need to use distribution right, but I don't know how often will go 1-5, and 2-4 out of say 100 weeks.
0-6 $3150 (1.5%) kickback
1-5 $2125
2-4 $950
3-3 $75
4-2 0 18 $0
5-1 7 $0
6-0 1.5% $0
30000*.025 is $750 vig I am paying weekly. You are right regarding correlation. It would be better if i correlate all the bets to make more 0-6 and 1-5's possible
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Runlikegod777so its loss rebate if i lose 20000 for week i get back $2000. I understand I have edge with 1 bet, but its small edge, and the book wouldn't like it. I am wondering if there is an edge making 6-7 bets in a week. i can bet $5000 per game with -105 odds (2.5 percent house edge)
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I get an average LOSS of $585 (lots of rounding, may be $570, may be $600). That is making 6 non correlated $5000 bets at -105.
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Geez guy….. Isn’t this the answer to the question you asked?
As mentioned, if you can make ONE $5,000 bet per week, it can DEFINITELY be + EV.
But you mentioned the ‘6 bets’ so that’s what I figured out for you
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOQuote: Runlikegod777so its loss rebate if i lose 20000 for week i get back $2000. I understand I have edge with 1 bet, but its small edge, and the book wouldn't like it. I am wondering if there is an edge making 6-7 bets in a week. i can bet $5000 per game with -105 odds (2.5 percent house edge)
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I get an average LOSS of $585 (lots of rounding, may be $570, may be $600). That is making 6 non correlated $5000 bets at -105.
link to original post
Geez guy….. Isn’t this the answer to the question you asked?
As mentioned, if you can make ONE $5,000 bet per week, it can DEFINITELY be + EV.
But you mentioned the ‘6 bets’ so that’s what I figured out for you
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Oh you are saying you did the math,and it is -ev. That is surprising, so i guess I would need to place lot of similar bets, spread, ml, 1h spread, 1h ml, on same team. to make it more correlated
Quote: Runlikegod777Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOQuote: Runlikegod777so its loss rebate if i lose 20000 for week i get back $2000. I understand I have edge with 1 bet, but its small edge, and the book wouldn't like it. I am wondering if there is an edge making 6-7 bets in a week. i can bet $5000 per game with -105 odds (2.5 percent house edge)
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I get an average LOSS of $585 (lots of rounding, may be $570, may be $600). That is making 6 non correlated $5000 bets at -105.
link to original post
Geez guy….. Isn’t this the answer to the question you asked?
As mentioned, if you can make ONE $5,000 bet per week, it can DEFINITELY be + EV.
But you mentioned the ‘6 bets’ so that’s what I figured out for you
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Oh you are saying you did the math,and it is -ev. That is surprising, so i guess I would need to place lot of similar bets, spread, ml, 1h spread, 1h ml, on same team. to make it more correlated
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That’s above my pay grade to figure out how much correlation you would need to turn it to +EV.
Am I correct in saying you can’t just make 1 really big bet per week?
The win stop is lower than the loss stop.
ETA: here’s an article on roulette: https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/exploiting-loss-rebates-on-roulette
Quote: unJonThere’s an answer that’s +EV and it’s not just making one bet. There is a win stop and loss stop. Believe you would need to aim to find it.
The win stop is lower than the loss stop.
ETA: here’s an article on roulette: https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/exploiting-loss-rebates-on-roulette
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He analyzed single zero roulette, which has a lower house edge than you can find on most sports bets. Plus to even find the ‘usual’ -110 bets the results require an actual event which may take hours to occur.
I responded to the OP’s specific question about 6 or 7 separate bets. Of course an even better way to take advantage of this loss rebate opportunity would bet the single bet on an underdog, not an even money bet. I’m not expert enough to know exactly how big an underdog you’d want to bet on to maximize the value, also factoring in that bigger underdogs tend to have a higher house edge.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonThere’s an answer that’s +EV and it’s not just making one bet. There is a win stop and loss stop. Believe you would need to aim to find it.
The win stop is lower than the loss stop.
ETA: here’s an article on roulette: https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/exploiting-loss-rebates-on-roulette
link to original post
He analyzed single zero roulette, which has a lower house edge than you can find on most sports bets. Plus to even find the ‘usual’ -110 bets the results require an actual event which may take hours to occur.
I responded to the OP’s specific question about 6 or 7 separate bets. Of course an even better way to take advantage of this loss rebate opportunity would bet the single bet on an underdog, not an even money bet. I’m not expert enough to know exactly how big an underdog you’d want to bet on to maximize the value, also factoring in that bigger underdogs tend to have a higher house edge.
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I don’t understand your first paragraph. OP is asking about nickel lines at a sportsbook. I know you are competent to compare the house edge of single zero roulette vs -105 lines at a sportsbook. Feel free to report the results (hint: it’s 1/37 vs 1/41)
I also don’t understand what a “usual” -110 lines means in this thread. It’s a -105 line and you could flip a coin to pick any you want as the kickback is +EV if you follow the right logic. Deciding in advance to bet 6 or 7 or X games is not the right logic. The right logic is having the value maximizing stop win and loss.
The link I sent does the analysis for a pretty similar HE game.
You did answer the question OP asked. You didn’t answer the question OP should have asked, I did.
What neither you nor I can assess is if optimal use of the rebate would be tolerated.
I had to reread the original post to understand the OP was well aware that banking a large single bet was plus EV. It seems as if he's figured out that they would quickly figure him out if he were to bet it that way and cut him off. It looks like he's trying to figure out how to make it less obvious while still having an advantage.Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonThere’s an answer that’s +EV and it’s not just making one bet. There is a win stop and loss stop. Believe you would need to aim to find it.
The win stop is lower than the loss stop.
ETA: here’s an article on roulette: https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/exploiting-loss-rebates-on-roulette
link to original post
He analyzed single zero roulette, which has a lower house edge than you can find on most sports bets. Plus to even find the ‘usual’ -110 bets the results require an actual event which may take hours to occur.
I responded to the OP’s specific question about 6 or 7 separate bets. Of course an even better way to take advantage of this loss rebate opportunity would bet the single bet on an underdog, not an even money bet. I’m not expert enough to know exactly how big an underdog you’d want to bet on to maximize the value, also factoring in that bigger underdogs tend to have a higher house edge.
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I don’t understand your first paragraph. OP is asking about nickel lines at a sportsbook. I know you are competent to compare the house edge of single zero roulette vs -105 lines at a sportsbook. Feel free to report the results (hint: it’s 1/37 vs 1/41)
I also don’t understand what a “usual” -110 lines means in this thread. It’s a -105 line and you could flip a coin to pick any you want as the kickback is +EV if you follow the right logic. Deciding in advance to bet 6 or 7 or X games is not the right logic. The right logic is having the value maximizing stop win and loss.
The link I sent does the analysis for a pretty similar HE game.
You did answer the question OP asked. You didn’t answer the question OP should have asked, I did.
link to original post
Quote: AxelWolfI had to reread the original post to understand the OP was well aware that banking a large single bet was plus EV. It seems as if he's figured out that they would quickly figure him out if he were to bet it that way and cut him off. It looks like he's trying to figure out how to make it less obvious while still having an advantage.Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonThere’s an answer that’s +EV and it’s not just making one bet. There is a win stop and loss stop. Believe you would need to aim to find it.
The win stop is lower than the loss stop.
ETA: here’s an article on roulette: https://www.888casino.com/blog/casino-promotions/exploiting-loss-rebates-on-roulette
link to original post
He analyzed single zero roulette, which has a lower house edge than you can find on most sports bets. Plus to even find the ‘usual’ -110 bets the results require an actual event which may take hours to occur.
I responded to the OP’s specific question about 6 or 7 separate bets. Of course an even better way to take advantage of this loss rebate opportunity would bet the single bet on an underdog, not an even money bet. I’m not expert enough to know exactly how big an underdog you’d want to bet on to maximize the value, also factoring in that bigger underdogs tend to have a higher house edge.
link to original post
I don’t understand your first paragraph. OP is asking about nickel lines at a sportsbook. I know you are competent to compare the house edge of single zero roulette vs -105 lines at a sportsbook. Feel free to report the results (hint: it’s 1/37 vs 1/41)
I also don’t understand what a “usual” -110 lines means in this thread. It’s a -105 line and you could flip a coin to pick any you want as the kickback is +EV if you follow the right logic. Deciding in advance to bet 6 or 7 or X games is not the right logic. The right logic is having the value maximizing stop win and loss.
The link I sent does the analysis for a pretty similar HE game.
You did answer the question OP asked. You didn’t answer the question OP should have asked, I did.
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yes, I can't make 1 bet or it won't be allowed. However, i can make 5 bets per week etc. I was wondering about basically ahving a win stop, and when I'm down chase hard, because I am getting back more than I lose on vig. For example tonight, if i was down would slam vikings 1h, spread ml etc, since its all kinda correlated and even odds. could put 20,000 on it, that would be my strategy. I will take a look at the roulette, thats pretty similar odds to betting -105 lines.
Quote: Runlikegod777I am wondering if there is enough varaince to overcome the house edge?
If I had this offer, I would aim to make bets with a negative house edge. At -105 only have to beat the market by a half point on a college total.
