rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 7th, 2019 at 5:11:37 PM permalink
There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

the best edge is BJ, but the live BJ takes so much time for a game, so it will not be profitable because my bankroll is not big. i cannot start with larger bet units ( cannot survive variance). when i bet small, it takes so long for each game (about 2 minute per game), makes me spending so much time with not worthed earning

so the best one to play is banker bet on baccarat. i try to flat bet, but flat bet is boring.
can someone recommend me any betting progression?

I know betting progression will not overcome the edge, but now, i am at + edge. so i think there is no problem to use progression

some progression that i think is good:
1. hollandish progression (negative)
2. 1324 system

as i learn about kelly criterion progression, we are not changing the expected return in the long run. but we are maximizing our expected growth, does it also applied to betting progression?
OnceDear
OnceDear
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March 7th, 2019 at 5:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

See if they are dumb enough to let you simultaneously bet player/banker at baccarat. If not is there a buddy with the same promo, such that you could pool resources.

my fave progression on roughly even money wagers is 1,2,3,3,3 capped at 10% of br. You should last ages with that. depending on br scale it up such as 5,10,15,15

Your number 1 objective has to be to not lose :o)

good luck.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 7th, 2019 at 10:07:45 PM permalink
Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?
I cannot hedge using two account on the same promotion deal, but they are a group, which mean i can register on other site (but worse promotion 1.2%)

I have try an excel simulation for hedging the baccarat, flat bet both site, running about 1000 test hand but i receive a bad result
The banker must be win 50.6% to maximize the value of turnover commission. I will post my detailed calculation on below post (now reply by phone)
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 7th, 2019 at 10:48:53 PM permalink
bet player with 1.3% TO (1.3%-1.24%) = +EV
bet banker with 1.2% TO (1.2%-1.06%) = +EV

i do manual calculation
banker bet prob: 0.4586
player bet prob : 0.4462
tie prob: 0.095 9048

removing the tie odds, so the banker winrate is :

0.4586 / (0.4586+0.4462) = 50.685% win rate (50.7)
so the player win rate is 49.3

i bet both side of player and banker ( banker's bet 1.05, player bet 1) x 1000 times
banker bet win = 507*1.05*0.95 = +505.73 units
banker bet lose = 493*1.05 = -517.65 units
baner bet turnover commission = 1000*1.05*0.012 = +12.6 units
player bet win = 493*1= +493 units
player bet lose = 507*1 = -507 units
player bet turnover commission = 1000*1*0.013 = +13.0 units

subtotal = -0.32 units

am i doing a wrong calc?
DogHand
DogHand
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March 8th, 2019 at 3:07:18 AM permalink
rajarolet,

Don't you also receive a turnover commission on rounds that result in ties?

If so, then each turnover commission will be increased by a bit over 10%, so instead of 12.6+13.0=25.6, you'll get an additional 2.56 units, which will turn your -0.32 into +2.24.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
OnceDear
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michael99000
March 8th, 2019 at 3:30:10 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?



It's just something I do to break up the boredom of flat betting Blackjack. It's far less aggressive than Martingale. Bankroll ebbs and flows.

E.g. buy in 100
Wager 1, If that loses wager 2. If that loses, wager 3, if that loses keep wagering 3 until I have a win.
At any win, reset to wagering 1.

Or I might do it with $5 unit so it becomes 5,10,15,15,15
If I'm in the mood to wager bigger, it might be 25,50, 75,75,75 But I'm not really inclined to throw money away so dramatically, very often.

But to extend my play time, if my session roll gets depleted, I limit each wager to 10% of what i have left. Doubles and splits, I just subsidise from my back pocket reserve money as needs be.

This money management has absolutely zero monetary value. It's just about fun and breaking the boredom.

If you've found a promo that gives you back 1.3% of action, you could engineer a play that gives you low variance and a high probability of coming out ahead, but that play would necessarily be very VERY many LOW average wagers.

As your chosen progressive increases your average wager, so your probability of ending up with a loss increases and it can be quite dramatic. You could find yourself with 99% chance of losing entire bankroll, even though it's +ev. promotion.

Have fun and good luck.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 8th, 2019 at 7:29:53 AM permalink
@dog: tie is not counted as a valid bet because of push.

I just dont understand why i still got -EV even i receive +EV turnover rebate on both side


@oncedear: what you would bet if you win the thrid bet?
-1, -2 and +3 (BE)
Do you bet 3 or 1?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 8th, 2019 at 8:01:29 AM permalink
if you google 'casino turnover commission' nothing that makes sense comes up, or I am missing it? ... however, this thread *does* come up. This suggests the OP is the only one using this terminology?

Am I the only one in the dark?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 9th, 2019 at 6:32:04 AM permalink
Online casino in my country have several promotion for member
Deposit bonus
Daily deposit bonus
Loss rebate
Cashback / turnover rebate (commission)
Lucky bonus (random sent to active player)

I dont know if this term does not familiar worldwide, but it is an usual promotion
DeMango
DeMango
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March 9th, 2019 at 6:47:35 AM permalink
Online. All we need to know. Buyer beware.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 9th, 2019 at 7:11:15 AM permalink
The promotion is called “bonus rollingan” in my language
Still not figure out how to beat baccarat other than banker flat bet @1.3% return
kelvin
kelvin
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October 19th, 2019 at 12:11:50 AM permalink
I have one casino offering 1% turnover commision for baraccat.Can bet on player and banker in the same round.How do i take advantage of it?
OnceDear
OnceDear
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kelvin
October 19th, 2019 at 3:37:48 AM permalink
Quote: kelvin

I have one casino offering 1% turnover commision for baraccat.Can bet on player and banker in the same round.How do i take advantage of it?

Hi, and welcome to the forum.
1% is nice but it won't defeat the house edge. No way. Just enjoy the slight extension to your playing time.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
FleaStiff
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kelvin
October 19th, 2019 at 5:08:35 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

1% is nice but it won't defeat the house edge..

Whittling it down a bit is still fun. good luck.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 19th, 2019 at 12:14:49 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

It's just something I do to break up the boredom of flat betting Blackjack. It's far less aggressive than Martingale. Bankroll ebbs and flows.

E.g. buy in 100
Wager 1, If that loses wager 2. If that loses, wager 3, if that loses keep wagering 3 until I have a win.
At any win, reset to wagering 1.

Or I might do it with $5 unit so it becomes 5,10,15,15,15
If I'm in the mood to wager bigger, it might be 25,50, 75,75,75 But I'm not really inclined to throw money away so dramatically, very often.

But to extend my play time, if my session roll gets depleted, I limit each wager to 10% of what i have left.


interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
OnceDear
OnceDear
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October 19th, 2019 at 1:03:21 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time

I don't know which is better. I've tried something like your way. It just feels so different. If you plot rolling bankroll as a chart for my way, you'll see an upward staircase punctuated by deep dips. Plot it your way and you'll get repeated downward staircases punctuated by big leaps. Whatever feels best on the day, I guess.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
MDawg
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October 19th, 2019 at 1:23:50 PM permalink
If you tend to win at Baccarat, play that game with this little added bonus. If you don't tend to win at Baccarat, don't play it because this little rebate is not going to affect your outcome much, if at all.

When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge. I could be playing a Baccarat with zero commission and the way I play the game the end outcome would not be any different: I either win big, or I walk with as small a loss as possible.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 19th, 2019 at 8:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I don't know which is better. I've tried something like your way. It just feels so different. If you plot rolling bankroll as a chart for my way, you'll see an upward staircase punctuated by deep dips. Plot it your way and you'll get repeated downward staircases punctuated by big leaps.
Whatever feels best on the day, I guess.


thinking about the 2 pressing strategies more, i figure your way is better because we're playing a slightly -EV game. (3:2 blackjack, ultimate texas holdem)
being -EV, you're going to lose more hands than win.
so pressing on the loss makes more sense??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
OnceDear
OnceDear
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October 20th, 2019 at 3:00:43 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

thinking about the 2 pressing strategies more, i figure your way is better because we're playing a slightly -EV game. (3:2 blackjack, ultimate texas holdem)
being -EV, you're going to lose more hands than win.
so pressing on the loss makes more sense??

I feel a graph coming on... I really don't know which way it will go.... Apart from bankroll trending downwards in both cases.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
michael99000
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Forager
October 20th, 2019 at 8:41:12 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg



When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge.



That needs to be your signature
sabre
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Foragermcallister3200
October 20th, 2019 at 10:05:50 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg


When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge.



Yes it does.
GWAE
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October 20th, 2019 at 3:58:39 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time



That's funny. I do almost the exact. Mine is
10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50. Best thing about doing this is when you are at 50 level and get BJ. If you were pressing only on loses you just hit a $10 BJ. Also if I get a double and win that counts as 2 levels for me.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
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