rajarolet
rajarolet
Joined: Jan 31, 2018
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March 7th, 2019 at 5:11:37 PM permalink
There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

the best edge is BJ, but the live BJ takes so much time for a game, so it will not be profitable because my bankroll is not big. i cannot start with larger bet units ( cannot survive variance). when i bet small, it takes so long for each game (about 2 minute per game), makes me spending so much time with not worthed earning

so the best one to play is banker bet on baccarat. i try to flat bet, but flat bet is boring.
can someone recommend me any betting progression?

I know betting progression will not overcome the edge, but now, i am at + edge. so i think there is no problem to use progression

some progression that i think is good:
1. hollandish progression (negative)
2. 1324 system

as i learn about kelly criterion progression, we are not changing the expected return in the long run. but we are maximizing our expected growth, does it also applied to betting progression?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 7th, 2019 at 5:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

See if they are dumb enough to let you simultaneously bet player/banker at baccarat. If not is there a buddy with the same promo, such that you could pool resources.

my fave progression on roughly even money wagers is 1,2,3,3,3 capped at 10% of br. You should last ages with that. depending on br scale it up such as 5,10,15,15

Your number 1 objective has to be to not lose :o)

good luck.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
rajarolet
rajarolet
Joined: Jan 31, 2018
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March 7th, 2019 at 10:07:45 PM permalink
Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?
I cannot hedge using two account on the same promotion deal, but they are a group, which mean i can register on other site (but worse promotion 1.2%)

I have try an excel simulation for hedging the baccarat, flat bet both site, running about 1000 test hand but i receive a bad result
The banker must be win 50.6% to maximize the value of turnover commission. I will post my detailed calculation on below post (now reply by phone)
rajarolet
rajarolet
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March 7th, 2019 at 10:48:53 PM permalink
bet player with 1.3% TO (1.3%-1.24%) = +EV
bet banker with 1.2% TO (1.2%-1.06%) = +EV

i do manual calculation
banker bet prob: 0.4586
player bet prob : 0.4462
tie prob: 0.095 9048

removing the tie odds, so the banker winrate is :

0.4586 / (0.4586+0.4462) = 50.685% win rate (50.7)
so the player win rate is 49.3

i bet both side of player and banker ( banker's bet 1.05, player bet 1) x 1000 times
banker bet win = 507*1.05*0.95 = +505.73 units
banker bet lose = 493*1.05 = -517.65 units
baner bet turnover commission = 1000*1.05*0.012 = +12.6 units
player bet win = 493*1= +493 units
player bet lose = 507*1 = -507 units
player bet turnover commission = 1000*1*0.013 = +13.0 units

subtotal = -0.32 units

am i doing a wrong calc?
DogHand
DogHand
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March 8th, 2019 at 3:07:18 AM permalink
rajarolet,

Don't you also receive a turnover commission on rounds that result in ties?

If so, then each turnover commission will be increased by a bit over 10%, so instead of 12.6+13.0=25.6, you'll get an additional 2.56 units, which will turn your -0.32 into +2.24.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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Thanks for this post from:
michael99000
March 8th, 2019 at 3:30:10 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?



It's just something I do to break up the boredom of flat betting Blackjack. It's far less aggressive than Martingale. Bankroll ebbs and flows.

E.g. buy in 100
Wager 1, If that loses wager 2. If that loses, wager 3, if that loses keep wagering 3 until I have a win.
At any win, reset to wagering 1.

Or I might do it with $5 unit so it becomes 5,10,15,15,15
If I'm in the mood to wager bigger, it might be 25,50, 75,75,75 But I'm not really inclined to throw money away so dramatically, very often.

But to extend my play time, if my session roll gets depleted, I limit each wager to 10% of what i have left. Doubles and splits, I just subsidise from my back pocket reserve money as needs be.

This money management has absolutely zero monetary value. It's just about fun and breaking the boredom.

If you've found a promo that gives you back 1.3% of action, you could engineer a play that gives you low variance and a high probability of coming out ahead, but that play would necessarily be very VERY many LOW average wagers.

As your chosen progressive increases your average wager, so your probability of ending up with a loss increases and it can be quite dramatic. You could find yourself with 99% chance of losing entire bankroll, even though it's +ev. promotion.

Have fun and good luck.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
rajarolet
rajarolet
Joined: Jan 31, 2018
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March 8th, 2019 at 7:29:53 AM permalink
@dog: tie is not counted as a valid bet because of push.

I just dont understand why i still got -EV even i receive +EV turnover rebate on both side


@oncedear: what you would bet if you win the thrid bet?
-1, -2 and +3 (BE)
Do you bet 3 or 1?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 8th, 2019 at 8:01:29 AM permalink
if you google 'casino turnover commission' nothing that makes sense comes up, or I am missing it? ... however, this thread *does* come up. This suggests the OP is the only one using this terminology?

Am I the only one in the dark?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rajarolet
rajarolet
Joined: Jan 31, 2018
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March 9th, 2019 at 6:32:04 AM permalink
Online casino in my country have several promotion for member
Deposit bonus
Daily deposit bonus
Loss rebate
Cashback / turnover rebate (commission)
Lucky bonus (random sent to active player)

I dont know if this term does not familiar worldwide, but it is an usual promotion
DeMango
DeMango
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March 9th, 2019 at 6:47:35 AM permalink
Online. All we need to know. Buyer beware.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

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