heatmap
heatmap
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October 7th, 2018 at 10:35:06 AM permalink
Do you have some basic rules that you always follow, and can be applied to any situation, such as calculating the EV of any moment where you think you have an advantage?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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heatmap
October 7th, 2018 at 10:43:06 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Do you have some basic rules that you always follow, and can be applied to any situation, such as calculating the EV of any moment where you think you have an advantage?

I have OnceDear's Rule Of Thumb Which i use to estimate the probability of hitting a goal or going bust in a zero (or nearly zero) edge game.
When aspiring to turn my buy in from £xxx to £xxx+ a litre of JD, I use that rule to determine the value of £xxx to give me a 90% chance of success or 10% chance to lose that £xxx.

It's a pretty accurate reality check with Blackjack and 5,10,15,15 progressive wagering.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
heatmap
heatmap
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:29:47 AM permalink
if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?
OnceDear
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heatmap
October 7th, 2018 at 11:34:08 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?


No. Not quite. Then it would depend on betting pattern and total action played and it gets rather messy. There is a formula for the more complex calculations... I'll dig it out and append it.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
AxelWolf
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:40:53 AM permalink
Not really a golden rule, but something to think about.

LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OnceDear
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Forager
October 7th, 2018 at 11:48:15 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Not really a golden rule, but something to think about.

LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS.


Indeed. Reminds me that the most golden rules are not necessarily calculations .

Telling the dealer he just overpaid is generally -ev
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
darkoz
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:57:02 AM permalink
Try not to get hosts involved in anything. Not even a hotel room upgrade
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:01:33 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?



Here's the more mathsy rule for flatbetting BlackJack...

EV = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (BetSize*NumHands)*HouseEdge


Your 1-SD for 1 hand is...
OriginalSD = 1.15*BetSize

Your 1-SD for ANY NUMBER of hands is...
SD(xHands) = Sqrt(xHands) * OriginalSD * BetSize


Expected outcome to 2SD over NumWagers (95% confidence)
EV Range = TotalWagered*HouseEdge +/- 2x(Sqrt(NumHands)*(1.15xNumHands) * BetSize)
Last edited by: OnceDear on Oct 10, 2018
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
AxelWolf
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:16:34 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Try not to get hosts involved in anything. Not even a hotel room upgrade

I think that would depend on what kind of play you were on and the location. For instance, if you are on a progressive and you know the mail is not going to be that great, I see no reason not go get some host comped meals or whatever.


If you are engaging in any type of shenanigans, obviously you don't want the host looking into your account.

I would say the number one rule is not to play over your bankroll and go broke.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:23:18 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think that would depend on what kind of play you were on and the location. For instance, if you are on a progressive and you know the mail is not going to be that great, I see no reason not go get some host comped meals or whatever.


If you are engaging in any type of shenanigans, obviously you don't want the host looking into your account.

I would say the number one rule is not to play over your bankroll and go broke.



Agreed
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

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