heatmap
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October 7th, 2018 at 10:35:06 AM permalink
Do you have some basic rules that you always follow, and can be applied to any situation, such as calculating the EV of any moment where you think you have an advantage?
OnceDear
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heatmap
October 7th, 2018 at 10:43:06 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Do you have some basic rules that you always follow, and can be applied to any situation, such as calculating the EV of any moment where you think you have an advantage?

I have OnceDear's Rule Of Thumb Which i use to estimate the probability of hitting a goal or going bust in a zero (or nearly zero) edge game.
When aspiring to turn my buy in from £xxx to £xxx+ a litre of JD, I use that rule to determine the value of £xxx to give me a 90% chance of success or 10% chance to lose that £xxx.

It's a pretty accurate reality check with Blackjack and 5,10,15,15 progressive wagering.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
heatmap
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:29:47 AM permalink
if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:34:08 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?


No. Not quite. Then it would depend on betting pattern and total action played and it gets rather messy. There is a formula for the more complex calculations... I'll dig it out and append it.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:40:53 AM permalink
Not really a golden rule, but something to think about.

LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:48:15 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Not really a golden rule, but something to think about.

LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS.


Indeed. Reminds me that the most golden rules are not necessarily calculations .

Telling the dealer he just overpaid is generally -ev
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
darkoz
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October 7th, 2018 at 11:57:02 AM permalink
Try not to get hosts involved in anything. Not even a hotel room upgrade
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:01:33 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

if i were to factor in a house edge, would i just multiply the end result of your first calculations by the house edge?



Here's the more mathsy rule for flatbetting BlackJack...

EV = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (BetSize*NumHands)*HouseEdge


Your 1-SD for 1 hand is...
OriginalSD = 1.15*BetSize

Your 1-SD for ANY NUMBER of hands is...
SD(xHands) = Sqrt(xHands) * OriginalSD * BetSize


Expected outcome to 2SD over NumWagers (95% confidence)
EV Range = TotalWagered*HouseEdge +/- 2x(Sqrt(NumHands)*(1.15xNumHands) * BetSize)
Last edited by: OnceDear on Oct 10, 2018
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:16:34 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Try not to get hosts involved in anything. Not even a hotel room upgrade

I think that would depend on what kind of play you were on and the location. For instance, if you are on a progressive and you know the mail is not going to be that great, I see no reason not go get some host comped meals or whatever.


If you are engaging in any type of shenanigans, obviously you don't want the host looking into your account.

I would say the number one rule is not to play over your bankroll and go broke.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:23:18 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think that would depend on what kind of play you were on and the location. For instance, if you are on a progressive and you know the mail is not going to be that great, I see no reason not go get some host comped meals or whatever.


If you are engaging in any type of shenanigans, obviously you don't want the host looking into your account.

I would say the number one rule is not to play over your bankroll and go broke.



Agreed
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:25:04 PM permalink
Oh... And stay hydrated
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:27:44 PM permalink
A good rule of thumb...

Always assume the Eye In The Sky is watching you and act accordingly.


Always be thinking about how you can make plays last without setting off alarm bells.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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October 7th, 2018 at 12:40:40 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

A good rule of thumb...

Always assume the Eye In The Sky is watching you and act accordingly.


Always be thinking about how you can make plays last without setting off alarm bells.



You'll be surprised how many people dont take the eye in the sky properly

I have had workers of mine say "its okay theres no security around"

Like its the floor guards that are the only eyes watching them
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
BTLWI
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October 8th, 2018 at 1:33:05 PM permalink
Don't use the casino's free WiFi for AP communication or if you do, use a VPN.
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October 8th, 2018 at 2:07:02 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

Don't use the casino's free WiFi for AP communication or if you do, use a VPN.



THIS people. when you are on someones wifi, you are using their physical medium to access the internet and if you arent FULLY ENCRYPTED, as in just HTTPS in the url is the only thing you think is protecting you, you are wrong. anyone can "spy" on you, and depending on the websites knowledge of security, and if they use POST instead of GET requests you are being spied on not just by your governement. anyone on the wifi usually, if they have root access to a device can watch where you go online.

i might not be telling the whole story but this man knows, and i know because i have a degree in computer information security and had to build networks for cisco classes
billryan
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October 8th, 2018 at 3:12:56 PM permalink
1) It's never the right time to do the wrong thing.
2) Operate in the dark as though it is noon.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TomG
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October 8th, 2018 at 4:48:30 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Quote: BTLWI

Don't use the casino's free WiFi for AP communication or if you do, use a VPN.

THIS people. when you are on someones wifi, you are using their physical medium to access the internet and if you arent FULLY ENCRYPTED, as in just HTTPS in the url is the only thing you think is protecting you, you are wrong. anyone can "spy" on you, and depending on the websites knowledge of security, and if they use POST instead of GET requests you are being spied on not just by your governement. anyone on the wifi usually, if they have root access to a device can watch where you go online.

i might not be telling the whole story but this man knows, and i know because i have a degree in computer information security and had to build networks for cisco classes



Explain why having the privacy on my phone breached would hurt my profits from casino games? If this is true when using a casino wifi, is it also true when using Starbucks wifi?

-----

Asking for rules on earning money playing casino games is like asking what are the rules for earning money from sports or medicine. The only way for anyone is to find what way is best for themself. The one guideline I can think of that that is always true is to play games with a negative house advantage (usually best to use this formula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value). Only thing else is to bet more as the player advantage becomes more, never to exceed the limits from this formula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion. Anything else I can think of can might not always hurt profits when ignored.
lilredrooster
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October 8th, 2018 at 4:53:27 PM permalink
the 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞 never changes no matter what the activity. it's always this:

𝑫𝑶 𝑼𝑵𝑻𝑶 𝑶𝑻𝑯𝑬𝑹𝑺 𝑩𝑬𝑭𝑶𝑹𝑬 𝑻𝑯𝑬𝒀 𝑫𝑶 𝑼𝑵𝑻𝑶 𝒀𝑶𝑼😃😁😆
Please don't feed the trolls
heatmap
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October 8th, 2018 at 5:40:43 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Explain why having the privacy on my phone breached would hurt my profits from casino games? If this is true when using a casino wifi, is it also true when using Starbucks wifi?

-----

Asking for rules on earning money playing casino games is like asking what are the rules for earning money from sports or medicine. The only way for anyone is to find what way is best for themself. The one guideline I can think of that that is always true is to play games with a negative house advantage (usually best to use this formula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value). Only thing else is to bet more as the player advantage becomes more, never to exceed the limits from this formula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion. Anything else I can think of can might not always hurt profits when ignored.



Its true for starbucks, your home wifi, and any internet you connect to, or whoever has access to the equipment you are accessing the internet from
TomG
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October 8th, 2018 at 5:51:46 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Its true for starbucks, your home wifi, and any internet you connect to, or whoever has access to the equipment you are accessing the internet from



That doesn't explain why accessing wifi effects earnings from casino games?
RS
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October 8th, 2018 at 6:16:45 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

That doesn't explain why accessing wifi effects earnings from casino games?


Could be easier to get caught.
onenickelmiracle
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October 9th, 2018 at 5:22:47 AM permalink
Do not talk to APs on the phone while in the casino. Someone is always going to be listening, when you're on the phone, you are not aware of your surroundings.
I am a robot.
RS
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October 9th, 2018 at 6:06:57 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Do not talk to APs on the phone while in the casino. Someone is always going to be listening, when you're on the phone, you are not aware of your surroundings.


On top of that -- don't talk about AP stuff when you're in a casino. It grinds my gears when I hear APs saying something like, "Durr, you should hold the 3-flush draw because there's a straight penalty with 2 high cards and the EV difference and variance ...." or something like that. If you ask me how much longer I'm gonna be, I'm not going to say, "I have to do $10,550 more coin in" I'm gonna say, "I'll probably play for another half an hour or so probably".

Try to be lowkey. It only takes one nosey m*****-f***** to shut down a play, or another nearby AP to hear something and now they know about a play that you obviously don't want them to know about.



I remember a kind of a while ago I was playing and there were 2 machines that were good to play for the promotion -- promo lasted until midnight. Some guy came up to me and asked how long I was going to play and I was 99% sure he was an AP, and I said I'll probably be playing until midnight, but if he wants to give me his phone number or whatever, in case I leave early I can let him know so he can get on it. He wasn't having none of that, so he played the machine directly behind me. I guess he was with his friend that was new to AP and just about every freaking hand they played he'd say something like, "Okay, so normally you'd hold these cards here because the EV is about 2.5 credits back, and doing this other hold is worth maybe 2 credits back..." or "With this promotion, if you can play really fast at 1,000 hands per hour, you'll be doing $5k in action per hour, so you can make 2% of that per hour in EV so your hourly EV is $100, and that's how we beat the casino." Then captain dumb-f*** kept coming over and asking me like every hour when I'd leave.

Originally, I wasn't planning on playing until midnight, since I still had to go get a hotel far away, I was tired from the start, and wasn't having a good day in general. But after hearing all this crap this guy was saying -- and he was being VERY LOUD -- I figured at the very least, I'm making sure he's not getting on this machine. I'll sit here and play 25c a hand, super slowly, if that's what it takes to keep him off (it didn't come to that, I max bet until the very end...maybe a few minutes before midnight I let him know I was about to leave and he could play it. ;) ) Plus he was annoying the s*** out of me, "Oh wow, another winner! You're up quite a bit there buddy, aren't'cha? Yeah, probably best to take your profits and go....there are other people that want to play, ya know."
heatmap
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October 9th, 2018 at 6:15:21 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

That doesn't explain why accessing wifi effects earnings from casino games?



never said it did i was explaining about your privacy your profits are up to you walking away when up
Nathan
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October 9th, 2018 at 9:29:01 AM permalink
A Casino Expert said this golden rule best. "Don't be a Bick." ;) Bick rhymes with what he really said but I wasn't sure if I could put what he really said. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
djatc
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October 9th, 2018 at 2:42:14 PM permalink
Quote: RS

rambling about stuff



I'm tempted to get earphones just so I can tune out these idiots. Spotify on casino wifi of course.
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heatmap
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October 9th, 2018 at 4:52:17 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I'm tempted to get earphones just so I can tune out these idiots. Spotify on casino wifi of course.



they dont allow headphones at the blackjack tables, but i always thought about bringing ear PLUGS. im not good at reading lips so i would just nod or shake my head randomly at people but still be able to focus.
djatc
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October 9th, 2018 at 7:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

they dont allow headphones at the blackjack tables, but i always thought about bringing ear PLUGS. im not good at reading lips so i would just nod or shake my head randomly at people but still be able to focus.



o i just mean machines. table games are no bueno
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DogHand
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October 9th, 2018 at 7:46:55 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Explain why having the privacy on my phone breached would hurt my profits from casino games? If this is true when using a casino wifi, is it also true when using Starbucks wifi?<snip>



TomG,

Here's an example: the casino breaches your phone and sees that you've been exchanging texts with an A.P. known to them who has been 86'd from that casino... don't you think the casino is likely to 86 you as well, thereby reducing your future profits from that casino?

Just a simple example.

Dog Hand
TomG
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October 9th, 2018 at 8:31:10 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

TomG,

Here's an example: the casino breaches your phone and sees that you've been exchanging texts with an A.P. known to them who has been 86'd from that casino... don't you think the casino is likely to 86 you as well, thereby reducing your future profits from that casino?

Just a simple example.

Dog Hand



No, I donít think that example will ever hurt my profits
RS
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October 10th, 2018 at 4:42:33 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

No, I donít think that example will ever hurt my profits


Getting 86'd from a casino wouldn't hurt your profits???
darkoz
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October 10th, 2018 at 6:41:22 AM permalink
While its technically feasible in my experience casinos do not have staffers monitoring wifi networks for AP activity

Has anyone ever definitively experienced this?

If you are using multiple players cards its probably not a good idea to log onto their accounts to check offers while on a casinos open wifi network from the same device. Perhaps that might trigger some alarm

But even that has never happened in my experience
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RS
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October 10th, 2018 at 6:53:14 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

While its technically feasible in my experience casinos do not have staffers monitoring wifi networks for AP activity

Has anyone ever definitively experienced this?

If you are using multiple players cards its probably not a good idea to log onto their accounts to check offers while on a casinos open wifi network from the same device. Perhaps that might trigger some alarm

But even that has never happened in my experience


Yeah, I think I mostly agree with this. In my mind, it doesn't sound all too likely that a casino is going to be monitoring its network traffic to sniff out APs, or really, for any reason. I just don't see it happening on any scale larger than "a tiny few select group of casinos". If, or more accurately WHEN, it's found out that a casino is doing this, there'd (IMO) be some major blowback, since I can't imagine too many people would be thrilled to hear about a casino watching their online access and movements while on that casino's wifi network.
darkoz
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October 10th, 2018 at 7:34:21 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Yeah, I think I mostly agree with this. In my mind, it doesn't sound all too likely that a casino is going to be monitoring its network traffic to sniff out APs, or really, for any reason. I just don't see it happening on any scale larger than "a tiny few select group of casinos". If, or more accurately WHEN, it's found out that a casino is doing this, there'd (IMO) be some major blowback, since I can't imagine too many people would be thrilled to hear about a casino watching their online access and movements while on that casino's wifi network.



I was thinking that too

Privacy concerns

In order to monitor for the "AP's" they would be monitoring everyones traffic

Front page: xxxx casino monitored their customers online traffic including viewing sensitive financial data people worked with while on their premises

Just imagine how that front page news goes over
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
heatmap
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October 10th, 2018 at 8:15:38 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I was thinking that too

Privacy concerns

In order to monitor for the "AP's" they would be monitoring everyones traffic

Front page: xxxx casino monitored their customers online traffic including viewing sensitive financial data people worked with while on their premises

Just imagine how that front page news goes over



it wont ever be news as when you normally log onto anyone elses "guest" wifi, they have you agree that all of those things are possible.

VPN is a fully encrypted signal, to the target server. Always VPN if you are on anyone else's internet, which is ALWAYS unless you are on your own home network, but whats a computer without the internet.
darkoz
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October 10th, 2018 at 8:31:31 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

it wont ever be news as when you normally log onto anyone elses "guest" wifi, they have you agree that all of those things are possible.

VPN is a fully encrypted signal, to the target server. Always VPN if you are on anyone else's internet, which is ALWAYS unless you are on your own home network, but whats a computer without the internet.



There is a difference between a casino hotel giving you a warning that your security may be exposed on an open network and ostensibly, you hold them harmless from the actions of any unscrupulous other parties

And their actually doing the spying themselves
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djatc
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October 10th, 2018 at 1:44:53 PM permalink
some casinos are so fubared in coverage that you have no choice but to use wifi
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ThreeAcesKicker
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June 6th, 2023 at 8:42:35 PM permalink
While I agree this is the scenario ( in a general sense) that you'd want to be concerned about with connecting to any business's this case it just strikes me that the level of effort it would be for a given casino to actually do this? It would just be 100x easier for them to focus on not having any machines AP leveragable...
Dieter
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June 7th, 2023 at 4:03:49 AM permalink
Quote: ThreeAcesKicker

While I agree this is the scenario ( in a general sense) that you'd want to be concerned about with connecting to any business's this case it just strikes me that the level of effort it would be for a given casino to actually do this? It would just be 100x easier for them to focus on not having any machines AP leveragable...
link to original post



If I were casually monitoring my guest network traffic, I would just be noticing which websites people are visiting - not what they're doing on each website.

If I suddenly saw that a dozen different devices connected to CASINOROBBERSCHAT.SECRET (a totally fictitious website) and there were a dozen new players winning a lot, I might correlate these points as related.

VPNs should help with that, as your traffic will appear to be going to SECRETTIME.VPN (fictitious), not something more dastardly.

This monitoring is easily possible with 10 year old network management software, configured to email periodic summary reports.

I have no idea if the casino you visit is monitoring things this closely, but I make sure I'm just watching kitten videos and playing Pokemon Go when I'm on property wifi.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ThreeAcesKicker
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June 8th, 2023 at 9:58:54 AM permalink
I agree that is best practice, but I still basically stand by my point. This is an old thread but has there ever been any evidence of reprimand or blacklisting based on WIFI usage? E.g. You're dealt a hand and check Wizard of Odds for proper play using WIFI.

In your scenario there's a crack team of new winners going to the same website and someone as competent as you at the helm at the casino's IT. Already a pretty different scenario. That said I can't believe CASINOROBBERSCHAT.SECRET isn't registered...
Dieter
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June 8th, 2023 at 3:27:54 PM permalink
Quote: ThreeAcesKicker

I agree that is best practice, but I still basically stand by my point. This is an old thread but has there ever been any evidence of reprimand or blacklisting based on WIFI usage? E.g. You're dealt a hand and check Wizard of Odds for proper play using WIFI.

In your scenario there's a crack team of new winners going to the same website and someone as competent as you at the helm at the casino's IT. Already a pretty different scenario. That said I can't believe CASINOROBBERSCHAT.SECRET isn't registered...
link to original post



I doubt that casinos are sniffing traffic to this degree.
I am, however, paranoid.
I concern myself with the possibilities, not merely the likelihoods.
Living dangerously for me is signing up for casino email with a dieter@ email ddress.
May the cards fall in your favor.
heatmap
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June 8th, 2023 at 4:49:06 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: ThreeAcesKicker

I agree that is best practice, but I still basically stand by my point. This is an old thread but has there ever been any evidence of reprimand or blacklisting based on WIFI usage? E.g. You're dealt a hand and check Wizard of Odds for proper play using WIFI.

In your scenario there's a crack team of new winners going to the same website and someone as competent as you at the helm at the casino's IT. Already a pretty different scenario. That said I can't believe CASINOROBBERSCHAT.SECRET isn't registered...
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I doubt that casinos are sniffing traffic to this degree.
I am, however, paranoid.
I concern myself with the possibilities, not merely the likelihoods.
Living dangerously for me is signing up for casino email with a dieter@ email ddress.
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casinos dont need to do this the routers and network equipment are made to do the sniffing and the more you pay the better the "sniffing" capabilities get... i dont think its sniffing its simply network traffic management
Dieter
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Dieter
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heatmap
June 8th, 2023 at 5:02:19 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Quote: Dieter

Quote: ThreeAcesKicker

I agree that is best practice, but I still basically stand by my point. This is an old thread but has there ever been any evidence of reprimand or blacklisting based on WIFI usage? E.g. You're dealt a hand and check Wizard of Odds for proper play using WIFI.

In your scenario there's a crack team of new winners going to the same website and someone as competent as you at the helm at the casino's IT. Already a pretty different scenario. That said I can't believe CASINOROBBERSCHAT.SECRET isn't registered...
link to original post



I doubt that casinos are sniffing traffic to this degree.
I am, however, paranoid.
I concern myself with the possibilities, not merely the likelihoods.
Living dangerously for me is signing up for casino email with a dieter@ email ddress.
link to original post



casinos dont need to do this the routers and network equipment are made to do the sniffing and the more you pay the better the "sniffing" capabilities get... i dont think its sniffing its simply network traffic management
link to original post



Sure. You and I know it's a pretty simple query on the SNMP logs.
Is the query in place? Maybe.
Is the data going to someone outside IT? Probably not.
"Sniffing" means something else, and I used the word badly.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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