True test of your SRR

Quote: Canyonero

A challenge for Exoter:

Exoter, you estimate your 7 ratio at 1:4.8. Let's make it a little easier for you and assume 1:5 or 20%

In 100 rolls, your likelihood of rolling 20 7s or more ist 54%. Again, let's make it interesting for you and assume only 50%. So we are at even money.

I offer the following even money wager:

Next time in Vegas, you do 100 rolls on a regulation Craps table (provided by independent third party). If you roll 20 7s or more, you win, If you roll 19 7s or less, I win. The stake is $1000 each. If you want to do more, we can talk about it.

With your 1 in 4.8 seven chance, you already have a huge edge. To make it more interesting for you, I offer you $100 in juice up front for accepting the bet. You get those $100 no matter what.

Not only is it free money for you, but together we will do something to futher the cause of legitimate DI. What do you think?

This sounds like a very tempting offer, even from a "just get lucky" perspective. Random rolling expects 16 and tw0-thirds sevens in 100 rolls, so how many standard deviations would 3 more be?

Quote: DeMango

A SRR of 4.8? Play the don'ts!

I've already explained in various threads that I often (almost always actually) lay the 4/10 on my comeout roll, and is where I make the bulk of my money.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm still flexible so let me know your changes and please when we get close we should exchange cell phone numbers by private message.

I'll let you know how things shape up, but understand my apprehension about giving too much personal information out freely on the internet, even in PM's.

Quote: MrV

Do not take me to tsk over your misinterpretation of what I wrote.

I claimed Exoter was the self-proclaimed craps and VP expert.

Not you.

I'm not sure where he got the impression that was about him, I knew that was directed at me specifically lol.

Quote: Canyonero

A challenge for Exoter:

Exoter, you estimate your 7 ratio at 1:4.8. Let's make it a little easier for you and assume 1:5 or 20%

In 100 rolls, your likelihood of rolling 20 7s or more ist 54%. Again, let's make it interesting for you and assume only 50%. So we are at even money.

I offer the following even money wager:

Next time in Vegas, you do 100 rolls on a regulation Craps table (provided by independent third party). If you roll 20 7s or more, you win, If you roll 19 7s or less, I win. The stake is $1000 each. If you want to do more, we can talk about it.

With your 1 in 4.8 seven chance, you already have a huge edge. To make it more interesting for you, I offer you $100 in juice up front for accepting the bet. You get those $100 no matter what.

Not only is it free money for you, but together we will do something to futher the cause of legitimate DI. What do you think?

Regulation craps table provided by independent third party? What is this? Seriously. Its like we've got to apply a thousand freaking variables to this thing to appease your beliefs. Why not vacuum seal me in a room, so that no particulates could interfere as well? Wouldn't want to skew your challenge. And 100 rolls? Are you serious? Do you really think that's an accurate sample size? I just said I'm fortunate (in the years that I've documented) to be at 1:4.8, but even those sample sizes are quite a bit bigger than your 100 rolls. I've had rolls where I've rolled nearly 60 times without ever ONCE rolling a 7, and you want to make a short, 100 roll sample for a $1000 wager? That's interesting and certainly not worth my time nor worth my attention.

Better yet, why don't you wager it on or against me? Would that not be a better investment of YOUR funds?

My god you people are silly and almost fanatical about this.

Quote: Ayecarumba

This sounds like a very tempting offer, even from a "just get lucky" perspective. Random rolling expects 16 and tw0-thirds sevens in 100 rolls, so how many standard deviations would 3 more be?

It does, but first we have to have a third party provision of a regulation sized table, and then probably a third party provision of truly neutral dice, but first we must use a third party provision on the mic' for those dice.

Quote: MrV

Do not take me to tsk over your misinterpretation of what I wrote.

I claimed Exoter was the self-proclaimed craps and VP expert.

Not you.

Really? You think I misinterpreted what you wrote? Here is again what you wrote:

Quote: MrV

No doubt Alan is anxious to meet up with you, a self-proclaimed expert at beating both machines and dice.

He used to play mostly craps but switched over to VP: you scratch BOTH of his itches.

Are YOU the one?

It seems to me you are only writing about me, since Exoter to my recollection never wrote anything about video poker.

The truth is Mr V you have been attacking me and criticizing me and riding my ass for years on this forum and on another going way, way back. I caught you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Really? You think I misinterpreted what you wrote? Here is again what you wrote:



It seems to me you are only writing about me, since Exoter to my recollection never wrote anything about video poker.

The truth is Mr V you have been attacking me and criticizing me and riding my ass for years on this forum and on another going way, way back. I caught you.

MRV and I have discussed VP in other threads, and also the part where he says "alan is anxious to meet up with you" gives it away.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The truth is Mr V you have been attacking me and criticizing me and riding my ass for years on this forum and on another going way, way back. I caught you.

If you've known for years that I enjoy poking fun at many of your ideas / notions (I enjoy watching them melt like the wicked witch did when she got hit with a bucket of water), then how did you come to the conclusion that you have "caught" me?

What, you didn't notice my hostility toward your DI babble until now?

Uh, nice catch.

Now "release" me, I need to sniff out and challenge those who revel in false hope, delusions, and fuzzy thinking.

Mr V need I say more?

Yes.

Explain how in your empircal experience a fervent belief in DI does not promote false hope and is not rooted in delusional / fuzzy thinking.

Good grief man, you are a reporter.

Go ferret out the truth and report it.

No half truths, no hopes, no maybes: just plunge head first into a pool of clear reality.

Quote: MrV

Yes.

Explain how in your empircal experience a fervent belief in DI does not promote false hope and is not rooted in delusional / fuzzy thinking.

Good grief man, you are a reporter.

Go ferret out the truth and report it.

No half truths, no hopes, no maybes: just plunge head first into a pool of clear reality.

Alan's problem is that he's got this idea that if DI can exist (and it does) that (and this is where his logic follows a different pathway than the real DI's) we should be going after really high ratio/odds payouts and that if we could DI, these are the things we should target. In reading his posts, its very, very, very clear that his interpretation of what it is to be a "DI" is extremely FAR from the truth.

In my time as an AP, from Machine Hustles, to APBJ, to DI, to comp hustling with VP, I've never in my life received more scrutiny than on the Craps Table, I've had the dice changed on me, pulled on me, had my image circulated to table games employees that deal craps to watch out for me hitting the back wall, etc. I've even received a temporary trespass.

All of this due to DI, not any other of the other far more lucrative ways to make money like APBJ and machine/comp hustling.

Now, whether it truly works or doesn't work, is beyond me. My results have been successful, and I've made very good $/hr in the time that I've been recording my data, but the way that this all works out, it really and truly isn't a "Full time gig" type of affair, and for that I don't believe I'll ever get a substantial amount of rolls in to be able to determine the true numbers of what I can and cannot hit, or whether or not I"m successful at limiting or influencing certain numbers to hit.

MathExtremist would chime in about this idea that I (and I qualified the comment very specifically) imagine that my $/roll could be in that $3 range if I ever broke the data down that far with the documentation that I do have, and that he thinks that if I made that much per roll, I should find an empty table and just go to town. Now, while that is a great idea in theory (and his ideas only ever truly work in theory) it cannot work in practice, as there is far too much heat in a 1 on 1 environment for that, and I'd know as I've experienced it. There exist too few opportunities to really make "good" money at the table to DI with, which is why it isn't a "main" part of my repertoire, just something I've picked up, like APBJ, machine hustling, etc. Like Counting Cards as a part timer, its much more effective to "hit and run" than to sit there and try to grind it out over long sessions because I'm exposing myself. Trust me when I say this, it is very, very obvious what I'm doing. Unlike APBJ where you have to guess my motives based on my eye movement and bet sizing, with DI there is no hiding it. When you see how I throw the dice, how much I bet, where I bet it, and how often those bets are winning, you take notice.

In 331 comeout rolls since August, I've rolled 69 sevens. 35 of them have been 4-3/3-4. 23 of them have been 6-1/1-6, and 11 of them have been 5-2/2-5. I've rolled the 2-2 6 times, the 3-1/1-3 13 times , the 5-5 7 times, and the 6-4/4-6 17 times. Those, to me, are the numbers that matter the most. With an average lay of $40 on both the 4/10, I've made 38x69, and lost 40x43, a net profit of ~$902 in 331 comeout rolls, or a profit of $2.72-$2.73 per roll on the comeout.

I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to be capable of breaking down the non-comeout rolls from there since I'd have to track each bet independently on top of each roll, but I guess I'll try and find a way or have a buddy record that data for me while I'm rolling so I don't have to fuss with it, but I'd imagine my profit/roll from there would drop down fairly dramatically.

I will say one thing though, while those numbers (in my mind) are enough to stack up against the "challenge" presented to me by whatshisface earlier, the pressure of having to carry the DI world on my shoulders to roll those 7's for him might prove to be too much, and I may not be able to throw as consistently as I have in the last 2.5 months over 331 rolls, as I would over his challenge. I'll be honest, I'm not that great under pressure, I miss 6 foot birdie putts alllllllllllllllllllllllll the friggin time when they "Matter", but nail them on the practice green or in a practice round with my eyes closed, so I'd imagine his direct challenge to me would prove to be fruitless for myself in that environment. If he's willing, I'd rather him just come wager with or against me, and let the dice fall where they may, and let him figure the rest out :D

Rather than guessing what I believe I will tell you what I believe.

I believe dice influencing is possible. It is a skill. If you practice or if you are naturally gifted you can have this skill.

Dice control comes in varying degrees. We all control the dice to some extent. For most of us, control is having both dice hitting the back wall without flying off the table.

I have never witnessed any shooter deliver any number on command.

I have watched, what I believe, were only three true dice influencers who managed to have what appeared to be a controlled throw -- meaning the dice travelled together and had a limited bounce and rotations off the back wall.

This is what I believe.

I suggested that if someone claims that they have a great SRR that they should bet the STA because anyone with a great SRR should certainly benefit from the STA. And as a bonus, they needn't hit any number twice. However, a DI can certainly make money just betting the passline, or just placing the 6 and 8, or laying the 4 and 10 and increasing the appearance of the 7 if that is their goal.

While I know the various authors and those who run the schools I know that what they teach has severe limitations. My parents spent a lot of money on teachers so I could play the piano -- and I could never play. There was nothing wrong with the teachers -- I just never practiced. I have no doubt that what is taught in the various "dice shooting" schools can have some value -- but paying for a course doesn't mean you or anyone else will ever be able to apply what they learned.

The physics of dice control is all very logical. It doesn't mean anyone can do it. It doesn't hurt to try. I will say that again as I've always said it -- it doesn't hurt to try.

The game of craps allows the shooter to try to influence the dice to go his way. If you don't try to get the dice to land "your way" why do you even bother to play? If you don't want to try to get the dice to land your way and you want to play for only for "variance" then play slot machines because they have variance and nothing you can do (legally) will affect their outcome.

If what you're saying is true, Exoter....then canyerno (sorry for butchering your name) has offered you a nice wager.

I'd think l canyerno would be willing to do multiple runs at 100 rolls each, instead of only doing it once.

Why wouldn't you book this wager? Sure there'll be some variance....but then again, there's always variance.

Quote: DeMango

It's the usual fishing expedition. Someone wants something for nothing and this challenge, as always, seeks to use someone for personal gain. Hopefully Exoter sees through this scheme, as well as MoneyLA's effort.

My effort? I only want to see the guy shoot and if he is a DI I will bet along and hopefully win some money.

I'd rather play craps with someone who tries to influence the dice than with someone who just chucks them.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Rather than guessing what I believe I will tell you what I believe.

I believe dice influencing is possible. It is a skill. If you practice or if you are naturally gifted you can have this skill.

Dice control comes in varying degrees. We all control the dice to some extent. For most of us, control is having both dice hitting the back wall without flying off the table.

I have never witnessed any shooter deliver any number on command.

I have watched, what I believe, were only three true dice influencers who managed to have what appeared to be a controlled throw -- meaning the dice travelled together and had a limited bounce and rotations off the back wall.

This is what I believe.

I suggested that if someone claims that they have a great SRR that they should bet the STA because anyone with a great SRR should certainly benefit from the STA. And as a bonus, they needn't hit any number twice. However, a DI can certainly make money just betting the passline, or just placing the 6 and 8, or laying the 4 and 10 and increasing the appearance of the 7 if that is their goal.

While I know the various authors and those who run the schools I know that what they teach has severe limitations. My parents spent a lot of money on teachers so I could play the piano -- and I could never play. There was nothing wrong with the teachers -- I just never practiced. I have no doubt that what is taught in the various "dice shooting" schools can have some value -- but paying for a course doesn't mean you or anyone else will ever be able to apply what they learned.

The physics of dice control is all very logical. It doesn't mean anyone can do it. It doesn't hurt to try. I will say that again as I've always said it -- it doesn't hurt to try.

The game of craps allows the shooter to try to influence the dice to go his way. If you don't try to get the dice to land "your way" why do you even bother to play? If you don't want to try to get the dice to land your way and you want to play for only for "variance" then play slot machines because they have variance and nothing you can do (legally) will affect their outcome.

Fair enough, that is a very realistic and fair picture of your "Belief" and I will tell you that I believe your belief to be true. Not because I'm currently doing it myself (because in theory my numbers could start tilting towards the opposite spectrum) but because I've witnessed it from my mentor. The other end of it is simply this, you don't need greater than 1:6 SRR to be a DI, or to make money as a DI, the most important thing in the world towards DI is analyzing your common pairings and making bets that favor those results.

Quote: RS

If what you're saying is true, Exoter....then canyerno (sorry for butchering your name) has offered you a nice wager.

I'd think l canyerno would be willing to do multiple runs at 100 rolls each, instead of only doing it once.

Why wouldn't you book this wager? Sure there'll be some variance....but then again, there's always variance.

For the same reason that its rare to see a starting pitcher pitch a complete game. When I approach the table, I'm looking to achieve one thing. A 20-30 roll. Now, I don't care how many 7's actually come up, as long as they are on the comeout, after that, I need them to not exist, and unfortunately with enough time and consecutive rolls, my skills will begin to diminish, and my results will return closer to their probability as the roll continues.

I'm not sure if you've ever rolled the dice 100 times before in "one go" but you begin to tire physically and mentally, and once you lose that edge, you are no better than a truly "random" roller, as your dice throw will become "off". This is, in large part, why I laugh at MathExtremists idea of going 1 on 1 on a private table against the casino, because you have only so many rolls in you before your muscle memory becomes "off" and your routines and concentration are broken. Then to top all of that, there's the increased pressure. If I don't do it, I'll let the entire DI community down, and lose $1,000 in an extremely minuscule window of rolls. To me, there's no real "pressure" to roll on the table with a 4/10 laid for $40 each on my comeouts, or 32A+Odds after. In many cases, I'll have made my money about 6 or 7 rolls in, and the pressure is completely off.

This, is of course why I suggested that we do this at a live table (as I certainly wouldn't be trusting the dice he handed to me in a "third party" scenario anyways), and let him decide how he wants to wager his money, while I wager mine exactly as I see fit, and when we walk from the table after or approximately around 100 rolls of the dice, we'll let the cashiers decide whether or not I've "walked the talk" :D

I'd rather just play a game with a legitimate advantage instead of guessing whether someone had one or not.

Quote: Exoter175

This, is of course why I suggested that we do this at a live table (as I certainly wouldn't be trusting the dice he handed to me in a "third party" scenario anyways), and let him decide how he wants to wager his money, while I wager mine exactly as I see fit, and when we walk from the table after or approximately around 100 rolls of the dice, we'll let the cashiers decide whether or not I've "walked the talk" :D

Without exotic bets such as the FireBet or the Small, Tall, All -- this is exactly the correct and only way to measure anyone's claim about being able to influence the dice.

Two of the three DIs I've seen were at tables without a Fire Bet or a STA bet and the only measure of their success was in the number of chips added to their rail -- whether it involved naturals on the come out or rolling numbers after the point was established.

I think Exoter's "counter challenge" is a fair one. Meet up at a true casino table, roll the dice, and measure success by the stack at the cage window.

Quote: Exoter175

Regulation craps table provided by independent third party? What is this? Seriously. Its like we've got to apply a thousand freaking variables to this thing to appease your beliefs. Why not vacuum seal me in a room, so that no particulates could interfere as well? Wouldn't want to skew your challenge. And 100 rolls? Are you serious? Do you really think that's an accurate sample size? I just said I'm fortunate (in the years that I've documented) to be at 1:4.8, but even those sample sizes are quite a bit bigger than your 100 rolls. I've had rolls where I've rolled nearly 60 times without ever ONCE rolling a 7, and you want to make a short, 100 roll sample for a $1000 wager? That's interesting and certainly not worth my time nor worth my attention.

Better yet, why don't you wager it on or against me? Would that not be a better investment of YOUR funds?

My god you people are silly and almost fanatical about this.

It does, but first we have to have a third party provision of a regulation sized table, and then probably a third party provision of truly neutral dice, but first we must use a third party provision on the mic' for those dice.

Maybe my offer was unclear, sorry about that. Let me explain::

I do not claim that within a hundred rolls even an expert DI will always roll 20 sevens. That's is why it is a wager. But your chance of winning that wager is significantly higher than 50% Exoter, and I offer to pay even money. Absolutely I am putting up my 1000 bucks against your 1000 bucks. And I do this because I believe I have at least a fair chance of winning. If you are good at influencing the dice however, this offer is massively +EV for you!

Basically, if you roll 20 or more sevens in a hundred rolls, you walk away with 2000 bucks, if you do 19 or less, I walk away with 2000 bucks. Plus you get a $100 bill for your troubles in either event.

Forget the regulation craps table, that stipulation was meant to benefit you. You just have to be comfortable that you roll in an environment where you can apply your skills. I am sure this can be arranged.

To recap:
You get $ 100.
We both put up $ 1000 each.
You roll 20 or more sevens, you win the $ 2000.
You roll 19 or less sevens, I win the $2000.

There is no catch Exoter, it is a straightforward bet. We'll have fun and hopefully make new friends.

Exoter; If you truly are an AP, and you truly have an edge at dice, it would be very wise on your part, to let it go. Something about pearls before swine. There is no +ev for you here, especially meeting with reporters who have only their best interests at heart. And the minimal shekels made at any challenge would be overwhelmed by bad publicity. Let it go.

I advise any AP to never meet with Alan. DeMango is right.

Quote: RS

I advise any AP to never meet with Alan. DeMango is right.

And especially, announce the date and place it'll take place at.

Quote: RS

I advise any AP to never meet with Alan. DeMango is right.

Where did this come from? I promise to shower and change my underwear if a fear of body odor is the issue?

Or do you fear something else about me? I don't bite. At 63 years old I don't have much physical strength so you won't lose if we got into a fight. I have no contagious diseases and I get checked regularly because of my transplants.

Is there some other reason?

Exoter may not want his name and image made available and circulated such that the casinos could get this information and ID him next time he tried playing in their joint.

Quote: MrV

Exoter may not want his name and image made available and circulated such that the casinos could get this information and ID him next time he tried playing in their joint.

*In my best Ed McMahon voice* "You are correct sir."

The exact reason why I won't go to these WoVcons.

I am confident Alan would keep Exoter's identity a secret. His offer was to meet, play craps, and observe, not to challenge. I would be interested in Alan's confirmation of Exoter's DI claims, regardless of whether Exoter takes on the challenge or not.

It would be wild if Exoter turns out to be one of Alan's previously identified DI's.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I am confident Alan would keep Exoter's identity a secret. His offer was to meet, play craps, and observe, not to challenge. I would be interested in Alan's confirmation of Exoter's DI claims, regardless of whether Exoter takes on the challenge or not.

It would be wild if Exoter turns out to be one of Alan's previously identified DI's.

One or even ten sessions won't prove anything, win or lose.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Where did this come from? Is there some other reason?

Yes, it's called greed. You display this on this board whenever there is a hint that someone is getting more than lucky. It was really on display when Ahigh was most prolific in posting.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Without exotic bets such as the FireBet or the Small, Tall, All -- this is exactly the correct and only way to measure anyone's claim about being able to influence the dice.

Two of the three DIs I've seen were at tables without a Fire Bet or a STA bet and the only measure of their success was in the number of chips added to their rail -- whether it involved naturals on the come out or rolling numbers after the point was established.

I think Exoter's "counter challenge" is a fair one. Meet up at a true casino table, roll the dice, and measure success by the stack at the cage window.

The only problem with that, is the people who will claim that I just got lucky and left the table, and that there was no real DI to it. The only way to prove DI (in my mind) is watch my rolls long enough to see that there are combinations that occur more often, and combinations that occur less often, and from there, DI is proven, but it will do nothing towards SRR.

Quote: Canyonero

Maybe my offer was unclear, sorry about that. Let me explain::

I do not claim that within a hundred rolls even an expert DI will always roll 20 sevens. That's is why it is a wager. But your chance of winning that wager is significantly higher than 50% Exoter, and I offer to pay even money. Absolutely I am putting up my 1000 bucks against your 1000 bucks. And I do this because I believe I have at least a fair chance of winning. If you are good at influencing the dice however, this offer is massively +EV for you!

Basically, if you roll 20 or more sevens in a hundred rolls, you walk away with 2000 bucks, if you do 19 or less, I walk away with 2000 bucks. Plus you get a $100 bill for your troubles in either event.

Forget the regulation craps table, that stipulation was meant to benefit you. You just have to be comfortable that you roll in an environment where you can apply your skills. I am sure this can be arranged.

To recap:
You get $ 100.
We both put up $ 1000 each.
You roll 20 or more sevens, you win the $ 2000.
You roll 19 or less sevens, I win the $2000.

There is no catch Exoter, it is a straightforward bet. We'll have fun and hopefully make new friends.

And what happens if I roll 6 straight 7's on the comeout, hit a 9 after those 7's, and then roll 65 times in a row before hitting the point or a seven out? Now I've got just 28 rolls to roll the 7 14/15 more times to win/lose that wager.

Are you not seeing where your challenge is foolish endeavor? There are guys out there that have offered me $1,000 just to test my SRR if I could beat 1:6 or intentionally go lower, and at no point is there an opposing wager from me. Why must I wager YOU when you could watch me wager the CASINO? Is that not sufficient enough? I have no pressure when rolling against the casino, I have a lot of pressure in a wager against you.

This is just another foolish dice challenge presented by a naysayer who thinks he's absolutely right about his beliefs in regards to the existence of DI, yet somehow is too foolish to realize the inaccuracies of his own challenge. And when I refuse the bet, I'll be met (much like now) with the nuisance and annoyance of it constantly getting thrown back in my face that I haven't or did not yet accept the challenge.

Like everyone else in the world, you can just sit back and watch me make it happen, or not, that choice is yours, but don't attempt to bind my hands by issuing a challenge and when I refuse, attempting to belittle or mock me for not accepting the challenge. That's what bullies do, are you a bully?

Quote: DeMango

Exoter; If you truly are an AP, and you truly have an edge at dice, it would be very wise on your part, to let it go. Something about pearls before swine. There is no +ev for you here, especially meeting with reporters who have only their best interests at heart. And the minimal shekels made at any challenge would be overwhelmed by bad publicity. Let it go.

I'm no fool, I know this all too well DeMango. I play my cards very close to my vest and rarely if ever expose myself to prying eyes. There's a reason Alan and I haven't exchanged phone numbers, and there's a reason my dates are tentative.

If and "when" this ever goes down, the only information being provided will be a location and time in a PM. There will be no introductions, no "meet and greet", it'll be simply, come, observe, and if you dare, try to figure out who the DI on the table is, and that's only after I've vetted Alan through other members of this forum.

Quote: RS

I advise any AP to never meet with Alan. DeMango is right.

This has been my stance since the beginning, and even more-so against this "challenge" being issued. $1,000 is literally nothing to me, but if the challenger ends up being some kind of covert "AP-catcher" from a CET property, I'll lose far more than winning the $2,000 from him.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Where did this come from? I promise to shower and change my underwear if a fear of body odor is the issue?

Or do you fear something else about me? I don't bite. At 63 years old I don't have much physical strength so you won't lose if we got into a fight. I have no contagious diseases and I get checked regularly because of my transplants.

Is there some other reason?

Exposing my face, name, information, or otherwise either in an effort to sell a product, gain views on a youtube channel, turn me in to an AP-Catcher for favor with a specific casinos, etc. Trust me, there's a million motives. I've already had a run in with another AP who tried to get me tossed out of a casino once he figured out how I was making so much more money than he was, and his only defense against me was my removal, so he made some trumped up allegations against me, which would later result in himself getting tossed, and me taking a "break" from going to that casino.

Everyone in this world has motives, and I'm not about to risk my 100k/yr job at the casinos to "prove" something to someone who might have ulterior motives.

Quote: MrV

Exoter may not want his name and image made available and circulated such that the casinos could get this information and ID him next time he tried playing in their joint.

Precisely.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I am confident Alan would keep Exoter's identity a secret. His offer was to meet, play craps, and observe, not to challenge. I would be interested in Alan's confirmation of Exoter's DI claims, regardless of whether Exoter takes on the challenge or not.

It would be wild if Exoter turns out to be one of Alan's previously identified DI's.

You probably aren't an AP, though, so your reasoning and my reasoning are going to differ dramatically. I'm not saying I've had any reason NOT to trust him, but in my world, I need a reason to trust someone before I expose myself like this, and his willingness to drop what he's doing to come see me play craps is at the very least, slightly alarming, especially if he's met what he believes to be a few "real" DI's. My existence and abilities wouldn't really further his beliefs any, so then I begin to question his motive.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

One or even ten sessions won't prove anything, win or lose.

And then there's this.

Quote: DeMango

Yes, it's called greed. You display this on this board whenever there is a hint that someone is getting more than lucky. It was really on display when Ahigh was most prolific in posting.

I've already been more than lucky. I won't bother. Thank you.

It's clear to me Exoter will never meet me. I had no intention of revealing his ID and now I certainly won't be able to verify his claims.

Too bad.

He's just another craps player with a story.

Quote: AlanMendelson

It's clear to me Exoter will never meet me. I had no intention of revealing his ID and now I certainly won't be able to verify his claims.

Too bad.

He's just another craps player with a story.

Don't be mad and attempt to belittle me because you had your hopes up that I'd meet you and show you the world. You have to understand my apprehension for meeting some random person on an internet forum formulated around the idea of gambling, discussing the possibilities of beating the house, and me wanting to show you that it can be done, for my own safety and security. I make a living from this Alan, and the threat of a trespass is a very real thing, I've already experienced one in my life, I intend not to experience another, as it affects my "Livelihood".

I'm not saying I'll never meet you, I'm just saying that I haven't vetted you enough to get there yet, and the response on this forum doesn't seem to support such a decision to do so.

Quote: Exoter175

And what happens if I roll 6 straight 7's on the comeout, hit a 9 after those 7's, and then roll 65 times in a row before hitting the point or a seven out? Now I've got just 28 rolls to roll the 7 14/15 more times to win/lose that wager.

Are you not seeing where your challenge is foolish endeavor? There are guys out there that have offered me $1,000 just to test my SRR if I could beat 1:6 or intentionally go lower, and at no point is there an opposing wager from me. Why must I wager YOU when you could watch me wager the CASINO? Is that not sufficient enough? I have no pressure when rolling against the casino, I have a lot of pressure in a wager against you.

This is just another foolish dice challenge presented by a naysayer who thinks he's absolutely right about his beliefs in regards to the existence of DI, yet somehow is too foolish to realize the inaccuracies of his own challenge. And when I refuse the bet, I'll be met (much like now) with the nuisance and annoyance of it constantly getting thrown back in my face that I haven't or did not yet accept the challenge.

Like everyone else in the world, you can just sit back and watch me make it happen, or not, that choice is yours, but don't attempt to bind my hands by issuing a challenge and when I refuse, attempting to belittle or mock me for not accepting the challenge. That's what bullies do, are you a bully?

There won't be a comeout roll or anything, just 100 rolls straight up, and you roll as many sevens as you can. Where does the "pressure" come from? You have a +EV opportunity and free money. That is exactly what an AP would go for - including me. But you don't want that.

We have had this on this forum a million times. A guy comes on and claims he can beat Craps, Roulette or whatever. When offered an opportunity to turn that ability into cash, they refuse. So let me at least have some fun by making you an offer you can't refuse. Except, you can, since you know you cannot actually change the probabilites of the dice rolls. So at least, I will give you some attention on this forum. Enjoy and good luck at the tables.

Quote: Canyonero

There won't be a comeout roll or anything, just 100 rolls straight up, and you roll as many sevens as you can. Where does the "pressure" come from? You have a +EV opportunity and free money. That is exactly what an AP would go for - including me. But you don't want that.

We have had this on this forum a million times. A guy comes on and claims he can beat Craps, Roulette or whatever. When offered an opportunity to turn that ability into cash, they refuse. So let me at least have some fun by making you an offer you can't refuse. Except, you can, since you know you cannot actually change the probabilites of the dice rolls. So at least, I will give you some attention on this forum. Enjoy and good luck at the tables.

The pressure comes from the fact that I too, have to wager into this silly challenge of yours. Why not offer me the $100 just to show up, and then $1000 if I can do it? What are YOU afraid of if you're so confident?

You're asking me to roll 100 times in a row in very quick succession, but you aren't realizing how impossible that is to do for me, or any other DI.

That's why I refuse your silly argument, and to be completely honest, the risk of exposing myself isn't worth $100, much less $1100.

Especially when you give me some silly stipulations like "third party table". Come on already , and only 100 rolls to do it in? You're trolling.

Quote: Exoter175

You're trolling.

Says the only "APVUXer" in the world.

Quote: Exoter175

I'm not sure if you've ever rolled the dice 100 times before in "one go" but you begin to tire physically and mentally, and once you lose that edge, you are no better than a truly "random" roller, as your dice throw will become "off". This is, in large part, why I laugh at MathExtremists idea of going 1 on 1 on a private table against the casino, because you have only so many rolls in you before your muscle memory becomes "off" and your routines and concentration are broken.

I just threw from the far end of the table and boy are my arms tired!

Where have we heard this excuse before?

Quote: dicesitter, back in July

You can not go the table and throw for several hours at one time and think your going to do anything but get tired.

Be fair, Mathextremist. It is well known that the human body and mind just can't take that kind of exhaustion. You see this in many other fields. For example, that is why darts players only play one leg of 501 a night, and why snooker matches only last one hour.

Quote: Exoter175

Don't be mad and attempt to belittle me because you had your hopes up that I'd meet you and show you the world. You have to understand my apprehension for meeting some random person

I've seen the world and I am far from random. I'm one of the few people on this forum whose identity you could actually verify. On the other hand, I wouldn't know who you are unless we were talking to each other on cell phones and you directed me to walk up to you.

I've also done something probably no one else here ever did-- I risked jail for refusing to talk about confidential information under a subpoena. I even testified for a defendant in a rape case -- so I know how to stand my ground in the face of community pressure when standing my ground is the right thing.

Keeping your identity private is not an issue. Verifying your claims is the issue. I am not making any challenge; rather I accept to witness what you describe as your advantage play. My role would be to independently report on what happened -- and hopefully to make some money on your PUBLIC rolling of the dice in a PUBLIC casino.

While my main occupation today is in the advertising industry, my website qualifies as a bona fide news outlet because like the New York Times and the LA Times and the Las Vegas Review Journal it carries original content with advertisements. I am no different from any mainstream media.

By the way, the Las Vegas Review Journal has interviewed me several times for articles about casino gaming and specifically craps. You can easily find the articles with a Google search. While there are people here who say I'm full of crap, there are major media outlets including newspapers and radio networks who do give me a little respect on occasion.

In short, if you need a witness to watch you do your stuff without a challenge to throw off your ability, contact me. I'm willing to invest my time to give you a fair hearing and a fair shot -- no wager required. Right now, it's the best offer you've got.

And if you ever wanted to show the world, I've got a weekly TV show in LA that has nearly a quarter million viewers each week and a website which (according to various surveys) reaches between 1,500 and 9,000 visitors a day. And I have technology that others don't have -- including Ahigh -- and if given the chance I could stop motion your dice rolls to each individual frame to show your influence.

Quote: Canyonero

Be fair, Mathextremist. It is well known that the human body and mind just can't take that kind of exhaustion. You see this in many other fields. For example, that is why darts players only play one leg of 501 a night, and why snooker matches only last one hour.

I hear that if a darts player is really good, they might play two. And you can never, never consume alcohol because that clearly impairs your fine motor skills.

(Andy Fordham, who won the 2004 World Darts Championship while totally drunk)

(I've never played snooker, but I've thrown two 180s in my life. :)

Given Exoter's understandable desire to remain anonymous, I see no sense in a get together focusing on his shooting.

No, he should meet Alan some place he's comfortable at, just the two of them, no cameras.

Then see how it goes.

If Alan feels this guy is in fact the long-awaited messiah then they can discuss setting up tests at a later date.

Exoter, you've nothing to fear with Alan: he's harmless.

Alan is just chomping at the bit, hoping to find a true DI in a world full of pretenders.

People actually play darts?

And yet DI's not have to play for hours at a busy table. What am I missing ?

Quote: RS

Says the only "APVUXer" in the world.

You're either trolling with the belief that no APVUXER could exist, or trolling with some weird inclination that I am the only one, and in both cases, you are very wrong sir.

Quote: MathExtremist

I just threw from the far end of the table and boy are my arms tired!

Where have we heard this excuse before?

Well, first of all, you shouldn't be throwing from the far end of the table. Second of all, try it yourself. Try to hit a target the size of a deck of playing cards from 6 feet away just below waist height 100 times in a row. I promise you that you cannot do it with two dice, let alone a single die. Now, 30 times in a row might certainly be possible, but why is 100 so hard? Focus, concentration, physical taxation, muscle memory, fatigue, everything plays a part there. Why do pitchers rarely exceed 100 pitches in a baseball game? Because they lose their accuracy, start to mentally and physically fatigue, and their muscle memory is all but gone. Same principal, slightly less taxing on the arm, but you'll understand the reference ( I hope). What should (in theory) work in regards to Hebb's rule, actually really doesn't after enough time or mental fatigue in this case.

Then again, you'll skip over that entire section and just continue trolling like you always have been. Carry on I suppose. You cite my sue of vulgarity in the expression of frustration as a "knock" against my intellect, yet you forget your repetitious use of sarcasm, trolling, and underhanded insults and jabs.

Quote: Canyonero

Be fair, Mathextremist. It is well known that the human body and mind just can't take that kind of exhaustion. You see this in many other fields. For example, that is why darts players only play one leg of 501 a night, and why snooker matches only last one hour.

True story, I'm actually a very, very, very good darts player. I picked it up when I was young and there was this kind of "family" bar and grill down the street that had quarter darts games, so we'd save up our change and go play for hours on end. Eventually, I would hone the skill fairly well and once I reached my peak, I'd practice less in an attempt to not "develop" bad habits, while still practicing "enough" to continue to retain that muscle memory. Same thing for Baseball, Golf, Basketball, Football, and every other sport I've ever played.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I've seen the world and I am far from random. I'm one of the few people on this forum whose identity you could actually verify. On the other hand, I wouldn't know who you are unless we were talking to each other on cell phones and you directed me to walk up to you.

I've also done something probably no one else here ever did-- I risked jail for refusing to talk about confidential information under a subpoena. I even testified for a defendant in a rape case -- so I know how to stand my ground in the face of community pressure when standing my ground is the right thing.

Keeping your identity private is not an issue. Verifying your claims is the issue. I am not making any challenge; rather I accept to witness what you describe as your advantage play. My role would be to independently report on what happened -- and hopefully to make some money on your PUBLIC rolling of the dice in a PUBLIC casino.

While my main occupation today is in the advertising industry, my website qualifies as a bona fide news outlet because like the New York Times and the LA Times and the Las Vegas Review Journal it carries original content with advertisements. I am no different from any mainstream media.

By the way, the Las Vegas Review Journal has interviewed me several times for articles about casino gaming and specifically craps. You can easily find the articles with a Google search. While there are people here who say I'm full of crap, there are major media outlets including newspapers and radio networks who do give me a little respect on occasion.

In short, if you need a witness to watch you do your stuff without a challenge to throw off your ability, contact me. I'm willing to invest my time to give you a fair hearing and a fair shot -- no wager required. Right now, it's the best offer you've got.

And if you ever wanted to show the world, I've got a weekly TV show in LA that has nearly a quarter million viewers each week and a website which (according to various surveys) reaches between 1,500 and 9,000 visitors a day. And I have technology that others don't have -- including Ahigh -- and if given the chance I could stop motion your dice rolls to each individual frame to show your influence.

And you don't see where I'd be a little apprehensive about just taking your word on this, especially if I did all of that, including your stop motion shooting, and have you go out there and reap the benefits of my skills while using your advertising power to line your pockets?

Trust me Alan, the wealth of information that I have to be able to "make a buck" in the casino, as well as the number of people out there willing to "learn" on how to "make a buck", you'd think that I'd be close to monetizing myself "legitimately" by creating my own youtube channel, as well as pursuing someone like Scoblette to co-author my books for me, and just kick back and relax.

Think about how much money people have made on Craps books, systems, classes, etc. in the history of the game, and think about how much of that has been "legitimate" enough to truly make any tangible profit on. How big do YOU think that section of the industry has been? I mean, really Alan, VUXing is uttered with "soft tones" on the internet because its a viable and practical way to make money at a casino, and that's just the tip of the iceberg as far as us "machine hustlers" are concerned, and aside from our input on the "obvious" hustles in the casino, we don't exactly go out of our way to discuss them, as that would almost positively result in the removal of the machines, and/or the creation of too much extra competition for us to remain comfortably profitable on.

Surely you could see my perspective, with the entire forum labeling you as greedy and advising me not to meet up with you, and me being the proverbial "golden goose" for AP'ing outside of card counting. I'll admit, I'm extremely apprehensive in this case, and meeting up with you and showing you the playbook isn't exactly in my interests, is it? Obviously neither is a silly $1,000 wager when I make more than that every week.

Quote: MrV

Given Exoter's understandable desire to remain anonymous, I see no sense in a get together focusing on his shooting.

No, he should meet Alan some place he's comfortable at, just the two of them, no cameras.

Then see how it goes.

If Alan feels this guy is in fact the long-awaited messiah then they can discuss setting up tests at a later date.

Exoter, you've nothing to fear with Alan: he's harmless.

Alan is just chomping at the bit, hoping to find a true DI in a world full of pretenders.

And from someone who has been so opposed to my posting, why should I consider your endorsement as such? For all I know, Alan could be an AP-catcher for CET and I'd be effed for life pretty much anywhere in the US, its maybe just a little bit "risky", though I have absolutely no problem meeting up with him and discussing him if I can find a way to get him through a vetting process.

Quote: RS

People actually play darts?

Absolutely, fewer things are better in life than drinking with friends and chucking some darts at a board.

Quote: redjohn

And yet DI's not have to play for hours at a busy table. What am I missing ?

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by this quote.

Are you suggesting that we DO play for hours, or DO NOT play for hours?

Some of us DO play for hours at a table, but there is very little "Taxing" going on when I'm not rolling, and in some cases I'll pass the dice when its my turn again if I'm not feeling "up to snuff" to toss them. After all, why pull the trigger on your own money if you feel your aren't up to the task? That's like a professional golfer teeing his ball up and swinging when he hasn't "found the groove" on his practice swings, but decides "ahh, screw it". Pro-tip, you will almost never find a professional golfer do that, its just not wise.

That being said, I do not know a single "DI" that will roll for hours at a time on an empty or lightly populated table, and there's about three and a quarter billion reasons why they wouldn't, and if a so claimed "DI" does do this, well, he's no real "DI" now, is he?

Quote: Exoter175

You're either trolling with the belief that no APVUXER could exist, or trolling with some weird inclination that I am the only one, and in both cases, you are very wrong sir.



Well, first of all, you shouldn't be throwing from the far end of the table. Second of all, try it yourself. Try to hit a target the size of a deck of playing cards from 6 feet away just below waist height 100 times in a row. I promise you that you cannot do it with two dice, let alone a single die. Now, 30 times in a row might certainly be possible, but why is 100 so hard? Focus, concentration, physical taxation, muscle memory, fatigue, everything plays a part there. Why do pitchers rarely exceed 100 pitches in a baseball game? Because they lose their accuracy, start to mentally and physically fatigue, and their muscle memory is all but gone. Same principal, slightly less taxing on the arm, but you'll understand the reference ( I hope). What should (in theory) work in regards to Hebb's rule, actually really doesn't after enough time or mental fatigue in this case.

Then again, you'll skip over that entire section and just continue trolling like you always have been. Carry on I suppose. You cite my sue of vulgarity in the expression of frustration as a "knock" against my intellect, yet you forget your repetitious use of sarcasm, trolling, and underhanded insults and jabs.



True story, I'm actually a very, very, very good darts player. I picked it up when I was young and there was this kind of "family" bar and grill down the street that had quarter darts games, so we'd save up our change and go play for hours on end. Eventually, I would hone the skill fairly well and once I reached my peak, I'd practice less in an attempt to not "develop" bad habits, while still practicing "enough" to continue to retain that muscle memory. Same thing for Baseball, Golf, Basketball, Football, and every other sport I've ever played.



And you don't see where I'd be a little apprehensive about just taking your word on this, especially if I did all of that, including your stop motion shooting, and have you go out there and reap the benefits of my skills while using your advertising power to line your pockets?

Trust me Alan, the wealth of information that I have to be able to "make a buck" in the casino, as well as the number of people out there willing to "learn" on how to "make a buck", you'd think that I'd be close to monetizing myself "legitimately" by creating my own youtube channel, as well as pursuing someone like Scoblette to co-author my books for me, and just kick back and relax.

Think about how much money people have made on Craps books, systems, classes, etc. in the history of the game, and think about how much of that has been "legitimate" enough to truly make any tangible profit on. How big do YOU think that section of the industry has been? I mean, really Alan, VUXing is uttered with "soft tones" on the internet because its a viable and practical way to make money at a casino, and that's just the tip of the iceberg as far as us "machine hustlers" are concerned, and aside from our input on the "obvious" hustles in the casino, we don't exactly go out of our way to discuss them, as that would almost positively result in the removal of the machines, and/or the creation of too much extra competition for us to remain comfortably profitable on.

Surely you could see my perspective, with the entire forum labeling you as greedy and advising me not to meet up with you, and me being the proverbial "golden goose" for AP'ing outside of card counting. I'll admit, I'm extremely apprehensive in this case, and meeting up with you and showing you the playbook isn't exactly in my interests, is it? Obviously neither is a silly $1,000 wager when I make more than that every week.



And from someone who has been so opposed to my posting, why should I consider your endorsement as such? For all I know, Alan could be an AP-catcher for CET and I'd be effed for life pretty much anywhere in the US, its maybe just a little bit "risky", though I have absolutely no problem meeting up with him and discussing him if I can find a way to get him through a vetting process.



Absolutely, fewer things are better in life than drinking with friends and chucking some darts at a board.



I'm not entirely sure what you mean by this quote.

Are you suggesting that we DO play for hours, or DO NOT play for hours?

Some of us DO play for hours at a table, but there is very little "Taxing" going on when I'm not rolling, and in some cases I'll pass the dice when its my turn again if I'm not feeling "up to snuff" to toss them. After all, why pull the trigger on your own money if you feel your aren't up to the task? That's like a professional golfer teeing his ball up and swinging when he hasn't "found the groove" on his practice swings, but decides "ahh, screw it". Pro-tip, you will almost never find a professional golfer do that, its just not wise.

That being said, I do not know a single "DI" that will roll for hours at a time on an empty or lightly populated table, and there's about three and a quarter billion reasons why they wouldn't, and if a so claimed "DI" does do this, well, he's no real "DI" now, is he?

Another pretender just ain't bringing it.

I thought for a moment this one had legs.

Oh well, there will be others: there always are.

Exoter why did you even start to post here?

Quote: MrV

Did you forget the response to that quote?

Quote: MrV

Another pretender just ain't bringing it.

I thought for a moment this one had legs.

Oh well, there will be others: there always are.

Attempting to goad me isn't going to bring this into fruition either. If you act childish, expect to end up in a temper tantrum, as a wise man once said.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exoter why did you even start to post here?

An internet search for a specific set of slot machines that I was looking for that either Axel, Mission, or MickeyCrimm posted about, then I started reading all of these threads and started to toss my input in, as someone who probably has more experience and action in the field than most.

Yet here I am, the grizzled veteran, getting trolled by ME about the concept of the martingale and why his assumption of it is wrong, trolled by you for not wanting to show up and play craps with you before I can verify your identity as someone who "would not" throw me under the bus to a casino, or try to leverage my skills for your own benefit via book writing, internet advertising, etc. And then now I have RS (RollingStoned) over there trying to tell me how VUXing works, when he clearly hasn't a clue.

I can see why there's a post here on your forums about this place "dying". I will say, KJ offered me fair warning about you guys ahead of time, and I expected this much, but I'm actually quite surprised by how childish it all has become.

And yet you're scratching your head over there about why I'm not going to "jump" at the first opportunity to "prove" myself when I do not need to "prove" anything, as my personal results that I've documented are sufficient enough FOR ME, whether you folks choose to believe them is entirely up to you, but make no mistake about any of this, I am not in the position to have to "prove" anything to anyone. If you're lucky, you'll witness it, but if you're going to challenge me like a teenager about it, don't expect to ever see it happen, least of all from me lol, I've got better things to do with my life.

Great post. Thank you!

I would very much like to see you shoot and to verify that you are a DI.  I've only seen three people shoot who I would describe as having the skill of a DI.  Perhaps you are #4?

I challenged my friend Frank Scoblete to prove to me there was a "Captain" and he never did.

I even went to so far as to contact the people that Scoblete said were still alive to confirm that there was a "Captain" and I received no response.

Being a journalist makes me skeptical even when I say there is no harm in trying to be a DI, and I try to be a DI, and I think everyone should try to be a DI.  But my skepticism does not permit me to accept anyone calling himself a DI unless I see it. 

So if you're a DI I'd love to see it.  I'll protect your identity.  You have my word as a journalist.  All I want to be able to do is say "yes indeed Exoter (real name withheld) really can influence the dice."

Is there anything for you to gain by this?  Probably not, except for maybe showing the world that you spoke the truth and DI is possible and you can do it.

Look, I got nothing beneficial when I testified for that rape defendant -- he was convicted and I was his only defense witness.  I don't regret testifying at the trial because he was entitled to a fair trial and I had information that might have helped him and therefore I was obligated to take the witness stand.  It wasn't the popular thing to do but it was the right thing to do.  As my VP of News and News Director at the time said to me "you have to give him a fair chance."

If you want a fair chance to prove your case let me know.  If you don't care then stop posting about it. You are not winning any arguments by refusing to show yourself or your skill.

Even if greed were not involved, the fact that you admit to being a journalist, means you will publish results. But I agree with you that he should stop posting about it. Again, no +ev can come of this. No argument needs to be won.

Quote: Exoter175

... I do not need to "prove" anything, as my personal results that I've documented are sufficient enough FOR ME, whether you folks choose to believe them is entirely up to you, but make no mistake about any of this, I am not in the position to have to "prove" anything to anyone. If you're lucky, you'll witness it, but if you're going to challenge me like a teenager about it, don't expect to ever see it happen, least of all from me lol, I've got better things to do with my life.

I do not believe you are any more of a DI than I am.

I do not believe DI is possible, at least not enough to make a quantifiable difference.

You talk a pretty good game and seem to have gotten people going, which I suspect was your intention.

Quote: DeMango

Even if greed were not involved, the fact that you admit to being a journalist, means you will publish results. But I agree with you that he should stop posting about it. Again, no +ev can come of this. No argument needs to be won.

Can't trust the media, eh?

Quote: MrV

I do not believe you are any more of a DI than I am.

I do not believe DI is possible, at least not enough to make a quantifiable difference.

You talk a pretty good game and seem to have gotten people going, which I suspect was your intention.

Isn't that always the way it works out? The pattern is pretty clear by now:
Step 1 is some wild claim from an alleged dice influencer, like "I can beat craps to the tune of $3/roll because of my dice throwing skills." Let's assume someone engages, because someone always does. What happens next is twofold:
Step 2a, someone offers a bet that would be hugely +EV for the shooter if the shooter actually could influence the dice, but is -EV under the assumption of equiprobability.
Step 2b, someone else offers to meet the shooter, not for a wager, just to watch him play (it's always a him) and bet on the rolls. Because, they reason, the worst thing that could happen is they lose like normal, but they could also win from this shooter's alleged ability.
With the offers out there, Step 3 is the excuses from the self-proclaimed DI as to why none of that will happen. This is where the backpedaling starts with comments like "why would I divulge my secret identity just to win a bet" or "how do I know you won't rat me out to the casino" or "there's too much heat when I throw."
Step 4, where we are now, is the audience asks "why did you bother boasting about all that if you're not willing to prove it?" Essentially, "put up or shut up." And then the real excuses start. After a bit the whole thing peters out until the next anonymous wannabe casino-beater shows up and says "I'm a genius and I can control the dice." Rinse and repeat.

In this case we may all be misinterpreting what our friend Exoter is saying. He says "I win $3/roll." That claim may be equivalent to when DraftKings states "The average user's winnings for the last 12 months: $1253." We know the average win for a DFS player isn't +$1253 because otherwise the site would be losing money -- and it's not, so that statement is obviously referring to money returned, not money won. If Exoter's boast is equivalent, then he's basically saying "I get back $3/roll," but without admitting that he bets more than $3/roll and is therefore losing just like the rest of us. In other words, just like his misunderstanding of betting systems, it's easy to say your method of play "works" if you ignore the times when it loses.

"I win on dice, except when I don't." Turns out, so does everyone else.