Can Any One Really Control The Dice?
Quote: AlanMendelsonDarn, I forgot about those machines that make sure my anti rejection drugs for my kidney and pancreas transplants are spot on prescription strength.
And I need to add driverless cars to the robots that land on Mars and on a comet..
Absolutely nothing at all to do with Ballistics Everything to do with Alan not being able to follow a discussion.
Quote: JoemanWhat about constructing a slide/ramp on a craps table in lieu of using a robot? It seems like this would be a quick and inexpensive way to test your hypothesis. If the dice could be released from a fixed height, wouldn't this insure a repeatable "throw" -- speed, launch angle & initial orientation would theoretically be the same each time.
I can also see some drawbacks: A ramp like this doesn't have the ability to impart much initial rotation to the dice (if that is something that is needed.) Also, once constructed, making changes to adjust angles & orientation to a ramp would be more difficult than making similar changes to a robot's motion.
Or has this already been tried? I don't pay too much attention to DI, though some of these threads can be entertaining.
Also, as someone who occasionally works with/programs robots, I can say that their repeatability/precision is definitely less than 100%. Personally, I believe that a robot would be a ploppy like the rest of us at a Craps table.
Although, Mr. Data seemed to do OK. ;)
Here is two videos that I did to show the dice only droping 6 " and rolling to the back wall that you wouldn't get the same results!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i29XrhcBYM8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TwGnLZsY3E&list=UUi_qsQYSKO72Yf43wHls1bw&index=202
I had shown Axel in my two online videos that can throw the dice in a way to limit
the effect of the back wall. I also showed you can limit the action of the dice after they
hit the table.
All of this is a waste of time because after they see it, they turn around and say no one
can do it, or if they can then prove it has an affect, then prove your a lifetime winner,
then prove you can win on any table you play on , then prove you can hit any
number you want to hit.
Craps is the only activity I have ever seen that no matter what you do it is never good enough
for those that cant. In the movie war games the computer said " silly game, the only way to win is
not to play" that's fits the discussion on here, if what your doing helps you win, go do it and
keep it to yourself, It is far easier to win on the table than prove anything on here.
Dicesetter
Quote: dicesitter
Craps is the only activity I have ever seen that no matter what you do it is never good enough
for those that cant.
Dicesetter
Perfectly said.
And marriage. Don't forget marriage.Quote: AlanMendelsonPerfectly said.
:)
Quote: OnceDearAnd marriage. Don't forget marriage.
:)
Marriage is a wonderful thing. But I pity the poor slobs who are stuck in a bad marriage and can't afford to get out of it.
Quote: dicesitterCraps is the only activity I have ever seen that no matter what you do it is never good enough
for those that cant. Dicesetter
At first glance this sounds relatively poignant, but upon reflection it devolves into gobbly-gook.
Just what are you trying to say?
Quote: MrVAt first glance this sounds relatively poignant, but upon reflection it devolves into gobbly-gook.
Just what are you trying to say?
Sounds like he's arguing that dice setting takes a lot of skill and that those who lack the skill will refuse to believe that anyone actually can. Not agreeing with him, but his point made plenty of logical sense.
He also questions why anyone who can set dice would bother trying to prove it statistically real. My answer is, if you were able to do so, you'd likely make more money (or at least suffer less volatility) teaching others than you would actually playing.
If you posit (and I'm not yet sold on this) that dice setting can change the statistical probability of the roll... whether you work to prove it or not, it WILL eventually be proven. That's just how science works. WHEN it's proven, the person who does so will probably make a lot of money demonstrating it to others, while casinos make efforts to counter this practice. In short, if it's possible to prove, it'll be proven with or without you, and it'll be more lucrative to be the guy known for proving it, than to be the guy trying to implement it against the (now wise) house.
Except that it already happened, and the casino already did make efforts to counter the practice. You don't get to throw against a hard backboard anymore. From a return-on-investment standpoint, attempting to practice dice control is a terrible waste of time. If it's possible at all, it apparently takes months or years to master a particular physical technique intended to throw the dice in an advantageous way. It takes the casino less than 5 minutes to tell you to throw the dice so they bounce back further from the back wall, or pass the dice to the next shooter.Quote: ElastoidIf you posit (and I'm not yet sold on this) that dice setting can change the statistical probability of the roll... whether you work to prove it or not, it WILL eventually be proven. That's just how science works. WHEN it's proven, the person who does so will probably make a lot of money demonstrating it to others, while casinos make efforts to counter this practice. In short, if it's possible to prove, it'll be proven with or without you, and it'll be more lucrative to be the guy known for proving it, than to be the guy trying to implement it against the (now wise) house.
There have been several people who talk about minimizing the bounces and gently rolling to a stop touching the back wall. Yet the boxperson can simply say "throw harder or pass the dice" and all that effort is for naught. So why bother, even if it is possible? It's not like the casino isn't going to notice that your dice always just barely touch the back wall and be okay with it.
Countermeasures would be easy for the casinos to implement and they'd be devastatingly effective.
DI=much ado about nothing
Quote: AlanMendelsonMarriage is a wonderful thing. But I pity the poor slobs who are stuck in a bad marriage and can't afford to get out of it.
Marry the 6 and 8 lay the 4 and 10
Are we talking looks or inches ?Quote: djatcMarry the 6 and 8 lay the 4 and 10
IF it was possible(IT'S NOT) It would work like card counting. Hop around, find weak management, go to other states etc etc.Quote: MathExtremistExcept that it already happened, and the casino already did make efforts to counter the practice. You don't get to throw against a hard backboard anymore. From a return-on-investment standpoint, attempting to practice dice control is a terrible waste of time. If it's possible at all, it apparently takes months or years to master a particular physical technique intended to throw the dice in an advantageous way. It takes the casino less than 5 minutes to tell you to throw the dice so they bounce back further from the back wall, or pass the dice to the next shooter.
There have been several people who talk about minimizing the bounces and gently rolling to a stop touching the back wall. Yet the boxperson can simply say "throw harder or pass the dice" and all that effort is for naught. So why bother, even if it is possible? It's not like the casino isn't going to notice that your dice always just barely touch the back wall and be okay with it.
Quote: AxelWolfAre we talking looks or inches ?
lol
Me: What are your dice roll frequencies?
DI: depends on set
Me: any set.
DI: well my V-3-6 set aims for 6's and 8's
Me: Ok, how frequently do you roll a 6 or an 8 with that set? And rolling a 7?
DI: It's....the umm.....I'm aiming for 6's and 8's, not 7's!!
Me: Do you know what your edge is?
DI: My wha?
Me: What's your EV per roll? How much do you bet, what bets do you make? If you make a $100 hard 6 bet, what's your EV on that bet? If you don't bet that, do you know your EV for any other bet?
DI: It depends on if it hits or not, duhh.
Me: How frequently do you roll a 6?
DI: Depends what my set is
Me: Do you have any idea what the **** you're doing???????
This isn't proof DI doesn't work, but, I'd think if someone could influence the dice and were betting $$$$ on it, then they'd know some of these (what should be) very simple questions to answer. Kinda like Rob Singer. He doesn't know how frequently he wins, he doesn't know what his "expected" win is, he doesn't know how frequently he goes from level X to level Y. Same thing with DI's.
You talk to someone who actually knows what they're doing and they know exactly what all these values are. What's it worth per hour, what their edge is, their expected win, etc. Of course, some (few, rare) aren't so easy to figure out what the edge is or the hourly, but if you knew how they worked, you'd say the same thing I've said, "I don't know what my edge is, I don't know what my hourly rate is, or whatever else.....it's so strong and so good, even if you run awful, you're breaking even."
What's most curious is that nobody with a better understanding of the math has ever claimed they have an edge and credibly quantified it.
☻Quote: djatclol
The longer I can avoid a 7 the better chance I have rolling the Small, Tall and All.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAll I care about is my SRR and now that I found a casino offering the Small, Tall, All bets I'm finally winning money at craps.
The longer I can avoid a 7 the better chance I have rolling the Small, Tall and All.
Hi Alan, and Happy Holidays.
Why are you making jokes at Christmas time? Didn't you see the Miss Universe contest replay where the MC played a joke on Miss Columbia? How rude and crude and disgusting actually.
The Small, Tall, and All bets have long ago been debunked as have overwhelming house advantages. Stating the obvious also doesn't earn you any brownie points with this well educated and experienced group.
Cheers mate. You are usually good for a laugh, but not this morning. I see a man grabbing at straws.
Happy holidays.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYeah, I understand that the STA bets have these huge house edges. But I'm up about $7,000 playing craps at Bellagio over just three trips. Oh, that doesn't include the $31,005 progressive royal. That photo is on my forum.
Happy holidays.
Merry Variance.
What your asking is analogous to throwing paper airplanes in a hurricane. Can you predict where it will land and how far on EACH throw? NO, but a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average BUT he won't be able to tell you on the NEXT throw it will be good, or even on the NEXT 10 throws it will be good. He could tell you on AVERAGE, he throws better than less skilled throwers.
SO the problem isn't with HIS throws, it's with you trying to take advantage of his throws. For you to enjoy his better AVERAGE you will need to be with him every time he throws the dice over time. Not practicable, possible but not practicable. So the only advantage will be to him and no one else, maybe his wife but she probably lost his advantage in the slots. :P
EDIT: Will his advantage matter? Maybe, Maybe not. If he can break the statistical variance, yes. If not, no. But he still has a better advantage mathematically it just won't matter in the betting odds.
The problem with a real world test is that everything is not always equal. The dice will sometimes hit chips that are there one moment and gone the next, etc..., etc...
I'd say don't worry about HOW someone is shooting the dice but just look for the trends, they are apparent. In craps the come out throw forces you to follow a 7/11 trend. Ironically in Roulette people bet against the trends ever since they introduced those electronic boards. Genius on the casino's part. Trends don't change the odds however, it's just that trends happen. Craps just forces you to catch them because of the Come Out Roll unless you stop playing at the wrong moment. So if you're 'lucky' you'll catch one toward the end of your session.
Best post I have ever seen on this board..... none even come close.
Thank you
dicesetter
The paper airplane is not a good analogy at all, for oh so many reasons
Quote: BiloxiBilla skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average BUT he won't be able to tell you on the NEXT throw it will be good, or even on the NEXT 10 throws it will be good. He could tell you on AVERAGE, he throws better than less skilled throwers...SO the problem isn't with HIS throws, it's with you trying to take advantage of his throws.
Oops, big gap in logic there.
Your argument presupposes that it is axiomatic that "a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average" when in fact such a thing is not accepted as fact at all.
Seriously, you think people can develop skill at throwing paper airplanes during a hurricane?
You'd have better luck herding cats.
Actually ..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8Quote: MrVOops, big gap in logic there.
Your argument presupposes that it is axiomatic that "a skilled paper airplane maker with practice in throwing them in Hurricanes can get a better average" when in fact such a thing is not accepted as fact at all.
Seriously, you think people can develop skill at throwing paper airplanes during a hurricane?
You'd have better luck herding cats.
I am a random thrower / herder, and am willing to bet a bottle of MD 20/20 for the gustatory pleasure of all WoV members who come to witness the challenge / competition that your results will be no better than mine.
Of course, the date/venue won't be known til the last minute; it'll have to be held during hurricane season, of course.
With luck we might find a bunch of cats fleeing the oncoming hurricane surge, then we could do both challenges at the same time.
...said nobody, ever...Quote: MrVa bottle of MD 20/20 for the gustatory pleasure
Did this just turn into a cat-throwing contest?Quote:With luck we might find a bunch of cats fleeing the oncoming hurricane surge, then we could do both challenges at the same time.
I mean if there is a good dice crew on the game, you have to hit the back wall or youre losing the dice...once they touch the back wall, physics take over.
Quote: GlenGHow many times can i say no?
Once should be enough. Welcome to the forum!
Quote: WizardofnothingFunny thing is in Vegas I herd more pussycats then anywhere else,
I heard a few stories about you about herding and not just cats. Your a bad person.
On another note
MrV. if you'r talking about a challenge on who can roll dice, what is your record. Mine is over 50 and under 60 rolls before seven out.
