Can Any One Really Control The Dice?
As I've said here before I have seen three and perhaps four shooters who I honestly think influenced the dice in a significant way.
All of the naysayers are right being naysayers because DI is not a skill that can be taught or learned easily. It takes a lot of practice and skill. And since it can't be taught or learned easily no one will ever be able to prove its existence.
But what I would like to see is a real, honest attempt by the naysayers to try to influence dice by practicing several hours after getting proper instruction. I don't think they ever tried. I think they are saying "impossible" just because they think "impossible" is the correct answer.
As I've said before, everyone influences dice to some extent, for example:
1. Some keep both dice on the table
2. Some keep both dice on the table after hitting the back wall softly
3. Some keep both dice on the table after hitting the back wall softly and limiting the bounce back
4. Some keep both dice on the table after hitting the back wall softly and limiting the bounce back and the rotation and pitch of the dice
5. A very few keep both dice on the table and hit the back wall softly under the pyramids with a soft toss that limits the rotation and the pitch of the dice so the dice come to rest against the back wall showing numbers favorable to the shooter's bets
Pick one.
Let's say someone was influencing the dice in a way that the probabilities of hitting a 6 and 8 were slightly increased at the detriment of rolling a 7.
Let's say you could calculate a .5% player edge.
How many rolls would be enough for you to state that in your opinion this person was influencing the outcome? Any number, doesn't matter if it is feasible to roll that many time, it's just hypothetical.
5000?
25000?
10 000 000?
How many?
Quote: Wonko33How many rolls would be enough for you to state that in your opinion this person was influencing the outcome?
Can you specify a confidence interval?
Quote: WizardCan you specify a confidence interval?
95% and 99% are pretty standard. How about both?
Quote: WizardCan you specify a confidence interval?
I am not trying to establish confidence levels or anything like that, just wondering , considering your knowledge of math and your penchant for gambling, at how many rolls would you be tempted to think "yeah, I am satisfied enough to put some money on that"
Personally I am not sure any feasible number of rolls would make me feel that way, I simulate 10s of thousands of rolls sometimes and some results are wild, if I had the same results with a shooter would I believe he is influencing the dice or is it just one of those things?
Dude would need elbow surgery before we had any relevant data imo .
Quote: NokTangAlan....have you ever witnessed a "no roll" called for not hitting the back wall(one or both die)?
I am an eyewitness because it's happened to me.
What's worse is that I was "no rolled" when both dice hit the back wall but didn't bounce off the back wall far enough. That happened at Bellagio years ago when I set my dice and used a soft throw and the dice ended leaning against the back wall showing 5-4 several times. I was told that since I was setting the dice I was required that the dice bounce off the back wall a minimum of six inches.
That caused all sorts of trouble which I've written about many times before.
However, Bellagio later apologized and said their table crew was wrong and my dice only needed to hit the back wall.
I have been "no rolled" at least once in every casino I ever played at, and sometimes with 100% justification because the dice slipped and fell in front of the stickman.
Quote: Dealer314I wonder though if somebody created a machine that threw the dice EXACTLY the same every time what the outcome would be. Obviously they would not let you use a machine to throw the dice at a table lol but just a thought. We know the forward momentum would remain the same every time and of course gravity. I honestly believe dice control has everything to do with physics.
This subject was examined in detail here a few years ago, and people have looked into / tried constructing such a device, IIRC.
Search prior threads.
Quote: MrVThis subject was examined in detail here a few years ago, and people have looked into / tried constructing such a device, IIRC.
Search prior threads.
Those were amateurish types of attempts. A real scientist could construct such a machine but for what purpose? You can never control the environmental aspects such as wind and humidity and wear on the felt and oil(human from fingers) on the die, plus of course no casino is going to allow it to throw the dice with live money action.
You wouldn't need to control things to that level of precision. A controlled release is all you'd need. If a machine with a controlled release can't throw the dice and have them resolve consistently from four feet away, neither can a person.Quote: NokTangThose were amateurish types of attempts. A real scientist could construct such a machine but for what purpose? You can never control the environmental aspects such as wind and humidity and wear on the felt and oil(human from fingers) on the die, plus of course no casino is going to allow it to throw the dice with live money action.
Quote: MathExtremistYou wouldn't need to control things to that level of precision. A controlled release is all you'd need. If a machine with a controlled release can't throw the dice and have them resolve consistently from four feet away, neither can a person.
I would venture to say...that the car companies have done this with cars and even in those circumstances and unlimited money, don't get consistent resolutions.
Where do you get the "four feet" distance?
Yes, that's the point. Someone already published a paper on how dice rolls are chaotic.Quote: NokTangI would venture to say...that the car companies have done this with cars and even in those circumstances and unlimited money, don't get consistent resolutions.
Where do you get the "four feet" distance?
Four feet would just be a lower bound; precision won't increase with distance traveled. Put the robot on the prop box. If it can't generate non-uniform faces, neither can a human standing further away.
Quote: Dealer314I wonder though if somebody created a machine that threw the dice EXACTLY the same every time what the outcome would be. Obviously they would not let you use a machine to throw the dice at a table lol but just a thought. We know the forward momentum would remain the same every time and of course gravity. I honestly believe dice control has everything to do with physics.
If the table conditions and other conditions also did not change, then the outcome of the dice would be the same with every mechanical toss.
You would also have to control wind, vibrations, wear on the table felt, etc., but if all outside variables were stable a mechanical throw to the same point on a controlled table would indeed result in a predictable result.
Yes, dice control has everything to do with physics.
Quote: MathExtremistYou wouldn't need to control things to that level of precision. A controlled release is all you'd need. If a machine with a controlled release can't throw the dice and have them resolve consistently from four feet away, neither can a person.
But a machine can have a controlled release and have the dice resolve consistently. (Barring of course the outside influences such as wear on the table, wind, vibrations, etc.)
The question is can a HUMAN have a controlled release that can be exactly repeated like a machine's?
Quote: NokTangI would venture to say...that the car companies have done this with cars and even in those circumstances and unlimited money, don't get consistent resolutions.
What is your source for this?
Quote: AlanMendelsonIf the table conditions and other conditions also did not change, then the outcome of the dice would be the same with every mechanical toss.
You would also have to control wind, vibrations, wear on the table felt, etc., but if all outside variables were stable a mechanical throw to the same point on a controlled table would indeed result in a predictable result.
Yes, dice control has everything to do with physics.
I'm sure the "schools" selling dice control have a way of twisting your comments into a sales pitch. At some point, people will come to their senses and stop supporting these scams. That said, new and unaware or dreamers always seem to come out and "buy" something worth nothing such as a "school" about how to throw dice.
Quote: MrVScoblete's desire for a "confidence level" led to the five count.
I really need a confidence interval -- not adjectives or how many millimeters my eyebrows would go up.
Quote: NokTangI'm sure the "schools" selling dice control have a way of twisting your comments into a sales pitch. At some point, people will come to their senses and stop supporting these scams.
I've been trying to get a serious dice control challenge going for years. You would think a school would love the publicity of beating me in a challenge. However, none have come forward to accept it.
The little fiasco with Wong showed them that "the math boys" demand proof, and that simply cannot be produced.
It's a question of faith.
Back to square one.
Quote: NokTangI'm sure the "schools" selling dice control have a way of twisting your comments into a sales pitch. At some point, people will come to their senses and stop supporting these scams. That said, new and unaware or dreamers always seem to come out and "buy" something worth nothing such as a "school" about how to throw dice.
What does this have to do with the question of having a robotic arm deliver the dice the same way to a predetermined point on a craps table?
Quote: RSPoint is -- if a machine can't do it, then people can't do it.
Of course a machine can do it. Machines put people on the moon and sent satellites to the end of the solar system. Are you suggesting that a machine can't be built to deliver two dice with precision to a set point on a craps table? How silly.
The question is can a person do it?
Quote: WizardI've been trying to get a serious dice control challenge going for years. You would think a school would love the publicity of beating me in a challenge. However, none have come forward to accept it.
What makes you think a "school" or any public instructor really can control or influence dice. I've been playing craps for more than 25 years and to date I've seen all of THREE shooters who I think influence/control dice.
The lack of competitors for your "challenge" doesn't mean that DI/DC doesn't exist. It just means there aren't enough DI/DC shooters who either can or will show up.
EDITED TO ADD: Not only have I been playing craps for more than 25 years, but I was around when the first of the DI schools, instructors, and gurus started holding seminars and writing books. I played with them. I was at their pow-wows. I know their theory was good but I was unimpressed. Sure they could put on some worthwhile demonstations, but playing in a real game? Nope. Not enough.
But over 25 years, I've seen just three who were the real thing.
One Tiger Woods. One Sandy Koufax. One Dan Marino. 3 DIs. LOL
Quote: AlanMendelsonOf course a machine can do it. Machines put people on the moon and sent satellites to the end of the solar system. Are you suggesting that a machine can't be built to deliver two dice with precision to a set point on a craps table? How silly.
The question is can a person do it?
Has such a machine been built [to toss dice with precision]? Perhaps if someone attempted to make such a machine, they would then understand how difficult it would be for a person to influence the dice. If it is extremely difficult for a machine to do it, can a person (realistically) influence the dice?
A person can theoretically throw a baseball 200 mph. But realistically, he cannot.
Quote: RSHas such a machine been built [to toss dice with precision]? Perhaps if someone attempted to make such a machine, they would then understand how difficult it would be for a person to influence the dice. If it is extremely difficult for a machine to do it, can a person (realistically) influence the dice?
A person can theoretically throw a baseball 200 mph. But realistically, he cannot.
You don't need a machine to show people how difficult it is to Influence the dice to have a difference. I've played craps for 25+ years. I will tell you how difficult it is.
So silly.
And if you give me the money, I'll have the machine built.
No, that's what was disproven with Kapitaniak's paper about chaotic dice throws. Read the paper. What "predictable" means to mathematicians is different than what "predictable" means to a craps player.Quote: AlanMendelsonIf the table conditions and other conditions also did not change, then the outcome of the dice would be the same with every mechanical toss.
You would also have to control wind, vibrations, wear on the table felt, etc., but if all outside variables were stable a mechanical throw to the same point on a controlled table would indeed result in a predictable result.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/21764-craps-dice-unbalance-mystery-dice-physical-data/35/#post462016
Perhaps it could deliver the perfect toss however could it gain an advantage using casino rules and conditions.Quote: AlanMendelsonOf course a machine can do it. Machines put people on the moon and sent satellites to the end of the solar system. Are you suggesting that a machine can't be built to deliver two dice with precision to a set point on a craps table? How silly.
The question is can a person do it?
In support, I submit that I took the kids to Carnegie Science Center a few months back and it has a mechanical basketball shooting arm that can nail Free Throws to the tune of 98%. So, not perfect, atmospheric conditions, I suppose.
You really wouldn't need a high rate of successful shots with Craps to yield an Edge. I don't know if it could be done, but I suspect it could. I think atmospheric changes would have a more pronounced effect than throwing something the size of a basketball off a stationary backboard into a stationary hoop. This would be more akin to throwing a marble through...well...a much smaller hoop, I guess.
A machine throws two dice that are set in a particular combination so that the dice travel to a predetermined point on a table with a predetermined angle, velocity, rotation. Given all other variables being unchanged, those two dice will bounce and roll from that point the same way each and every time.
A machine can do that.
Once you see how the dice finish, you can adjust the "set" to get the "finish" you want.
This is simple, basic physics.
It doesn't mean any human can do it. But a robotic arm can do it. Give me the money and I will have it built for you. And then I will have a table put into a sealed chamber and demonstrate it for you. It just takes cash.
Quote: Mission146I took the kids to Carnegie Science Center a few months back and it has a mechanical basketball shooting arm that can nail Free Throws to the tune of 98%.
If they spent more money on it, the shooting arm could have been 100%.
They can land satellites on comets.
They can take photos of Pluto.
And we're arguing over a robot throwing dice on a craps table? LOL
Quote: AlanMendelsonIf they spent more money on it, the shooting arm could have been 100%.
Maybe, that actually wasn't even the device's original purpose. It used to be used for welding automobiles. I presume the device was donated to the science center, but I can't be sure.
Quote: AxelWolfPerhaps it could deliver the perfect toss however could it gain an advantage using casino rules and conditions.
Let me know when a casino allows a robotic arm.
Now tell me what your point is?
Quote: Mission146DI or no DI, I see no practical reason to care how it performs in a vacuum. A mechanical arm performing well in a vacuum doesn't even do anything to conclusively demonstrate a human could do it at all.
The point of the robot is just to demonstrate the possibility. There are people on this forum who continue to say "impossible."
Well, it's not impossible.
Give me enough money I can show you a robot can do it.
Can a human do it? I can't . Mr. V can't. The Wizard can't. Maybe everyone who took last month's "class" in Vegas can't.
But why would any one be so bold as to say it's impossible?
Until you have seen EVERY dice shooter on the planet, you cannot say "impossible."
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe point of the robot is just to demonstrate the possibility. There are people on this forum who continue to say "impossible."
Well, it's not impossible.
Give me enough money I can show you a robot can do it.
Can a human do it? I can't . Mr. V can't. The Wizard can't. Maybe everyone who took last month's "class" in Vegas can't.
But why would any one be so bold as to say it's impossible?
Until you have seen EVERY dice shooter on the planet, you cannot say "impossible."
Can a robot throw a baseball 200 mph? Yes.
Can a human throw a baseball 200 mph? Theoretically, I'd say yes.
But is it realistic for a human to throw a baseball 200 mph? No.
It's possible in the sense that "nothing is impossible". But it's not possible in the sense of, "Okay, is this something someone can actually do?"
Not at a casino then, lets say at someones house.Quote: AlanMendelsonLet me know when a casino allows a robotic arm.
Now tell me what your point is?
IMO there's absolutely no point to DI unless you can actually make money doing it.
No human can influence the dice enough to gain an advantage and make a profit from the casinos playing craps.
If the smartest AP's in the world haven't figured out a way to beat the casinos using DI then it's not possible.
I'm not even saying the AP himself needs to be able to do it. I'm saying if DI was possible it would have been exposed by now.
Who really cares if you can influence the dice so infrequently or on such a small scale that it's meaningless?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat makes you think a "school" or any public instructor really can control or influence dice.
Why would I offer the challenge if I thought that?
Quote: AxelWolf
IMO there's absolutely no point to DI unless you can actually make money doing it.
The three shooters I saw who I described as DIs made money. They made money because they delivered "good throws" a considerable number of times before they sevened-out.
I think length of throw (or hand, or turn with the dice) is one thing needed to determine if someone is truly a DI.
Let's face it -- a "teacher" or a "guru" can get lucky and deliver two or three or five "good throws" and that can be luck. But can you keep delivering "good throws" for a half hour? An hour?
I'm not saying there are a lot of real DIs out there. I can only report that I've seen 3. And how many hundreds or even thousands of craps shooters have I played with over 25+ years??
I'm guessing you have never seen anyone who qualifies as a DI. Okay, fair enough.
I have.
I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm not telling you to go to a school. Just don't tell me you think it's impossible because you can't do it, and you've never seen it done.
Quote: RS"Okay, is this something someone can actually do?"
Yes. I've seen it.
Over 25+ years of playing craps with hundreds if not thousands of shooters, I've seen THREE players do it.
And I have not seen a tape of one on YouTube.
Quote: AlanMendelsonA machine throws two dice that are set in a particular combination so that the dice travel to a predetermined point on a table with a predetermined angle, velocity, rotation. Given all other variables being unchanged, those two dice will bounce and roll from that point the same way each and every time. A machine can do that.
NO, it most certainly CANNOT do that, as such a machine will never be built.
For DI to work, theoretically, both die need to hit perfectly square against the felt, each within a fraction of a degree to one another.
Too many variables at work to prevent that: air pressure, wafting zephyrs, slight differences in dice construction and weight.
If only one die lands even a tiny bit less than perfect: oops.
Perfection is required: perfection does not exist.
He proves it. If he's identifiable, he's immediately banned from ever playing again. And whether he is or not, now that there's PROOF it can be done, what happens to the game? The odds offered immediately get shaved, or the table max gets capped way lower. The dice get taken away from the players, put in a cup, or some other protection move. The game gets taken out of some casinos, dies in others, or gets replaced by some ecraps machine faster than that's now catching on.
Zero upside to proving you can do it where a casino knows about it. Big upside to casinos entertaining players who think they can, but really can't. If I were a DI, I would be the only one who knew it.
NOR HAVE YOU!!Quote: AlanMendelson
I'm guessing you have never seen anyone who qualifies as a DI. Okay, fair enough.
e.
But you shouldn't assume anything. I know more about DI than you may think. I was involved with DI very early 2000's. With a REAL table to practice on, I just quickly realized it wasn't possible even under the best conditions.
I had friends that were more enthusiastic and moved forward. Eventually they were up 10's of thousands(with actual verification). Meanwhile they were getting chased out of casinos. Luckily they quit while they were ahead, partly due to the slow motion videos.
You have no idea if they(the mysterious 3) were getting lucky or not. They could now be down hundreds of thousands.
If that grandma who set the world record for longest roll set the dice and tossed them softly, you would've thought she was the best DI ever.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe three shooters I saw who I described as DIs made money. They made money because they delivered "good throws" a considerable number of times before they sevened-out.
I think length of throw (or hand, or turn with the dice) is one thing needed to determine if someone is truly a DI.
Let's face it -- a "teacher" or a "guru" can get lucky and deliver two or three or five "good throws" and that can be luck. But can you keep delivering "good throws" for a half hour? An hour?
I'm not saying there are a lot of real DIs out there. I can only report that I've seen 3. And how many hundreds or even thousands of craps shooters have I played with over 25+ years??
I'm guessing you have never seen anyone who qualifies as a DI. Okay, fair enough.
I have.
I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm not telling you to go to a school. Just don't tell me you think it's impossible because you can't do it, and you've never seen it done.
I don't know how many hours of craps you've played, but I'm going to assume a significant amount. Eventually, you're gonna see situations where one shooter is on fire all night long. Other times everyone who gets the dice holds them for 20+ minutes. I've seen back-to-back 40+ minute rolls. And guess what -- eventually you're gonna see someone who's doing a controlled throw with a soft landing and good back-spin etc. shoot for a long time. And yeah, sometimes they're going to be on fire all night long. Kind of like that one lady who had the dice for a long time in AC (what was it, like 180 rolls over 4+ hours?). But, none of this means they were actually DI's.
Having an extremely long roll (or a few/several long rolls) doesn't mean the person's a DI. Remember, DI's tout some small % shift in their SRR (7 to rolls ratio). Hell, even if you could (somehow) change the SRR from 1/6 to 1/8....that 1/8 number is still not enough to cause a very long roll.
Imagine a roulette wheel (let's say 40 numbers instead of 38, to keep the math simple). If the wheel is biased towards number X, such that X now has a likelyhood of hitting 4% of the time (instead of 2.5%), and the rest of the numbers going down from 2.5% to 2.46% [assuming even distribution], that is not enough of a change to see X hitting 8 times in the last 100 spins. Being in this situation, it would be ridiculous to conclude, "Yup, X hit 8 times in 100 rolls, therefore the wheel is biased!" The only likely/sound conclusion is either VARIANCE or "there is a chance it is biased".
Now, let's say there were 10,000 wheel spins, and of those spins, X hits 450 times. Okay, now you may have something to work with.
Comprende?
But they tossed the dice ever so softly, so softly that they actually rolled right up to the back wall and just stopped. *wink, wink*Quote: RSI don't know how many hours of craps you've played, but I'm going to assume a significant amount. Eventually, you're gonna see situations where one shooter is on fire all night long. Other times everyone who gets the dice holds them for 20+ minutes. I've seen back-to-back 40+ minute rolls. And guess what -- eventually you're gonna see someone who's doing a controlled throw with a soft landing and good back-spin etc. shoot for a long time. And yeah, sometimes they're going to be on fire all night long. Kind of like that one lady who had the dice for a long time in AC (what was it, like 180 rolls over 4+ hours?). But, none of this means they were actually DI's.
Having an extremely long roll (or a few/several long rolls) doesn't mean the person's a DI. Remember, DI's tout some small % shift in their SRR (7 to rolls ratio). Hell, even if you could (somehow) change the SRR from 1/6 to 1/8....that 1/8 number is still not enough to cause a very long roll.
Imagine a roulette wheel (let's say 40 numbers instead of 38, to keep the math simple). If the wheel is biased towards number X, such that X now has a likelyhood of hitting 4% of the time (instead of 2.5%), and the rest of the numbers going down from 2.5% to 2.46% [assuming even distribution], that is not enough of a change to see X hitting 8 times in the last 100 spins. Being in this situation, it would be ridiculous to conclude, "Yup, X hit 8 times in 100 rolls, therefore the wheel is biased!" The only likely/sound conclusion is either VARIANCE or "there is a chance it is biased".
Now, let's say there were 10,000 wheel spins, and of those spins, X hits 450 times. Okay, now you may have something to work with.
Comprende?Waits for mustangsally to come in and say "there's a chance of Y happening Z in ABC times and that's 2.7 * 100^52 standard deviations away from expected"
Them there DI AP's and roulette system players are the best at keeping their winning and craft silent. I'm actually very envious because they have world wide access 365 24/7 to an unlimited supply of cash at the casinos and with very little heat nowadays.
They almost welcome DI's with arms wide open. Just don't hit a place to hard and long. Mover around like KJ does.
Quote: RSNow, let's say there were 10,000 wheel spins, and of those spins, X hits 450 times. Okay, now you may have something to work with.
even 10,000 spins is not enough data to be sure of much - unless the wheel is so biased it stops in the same zone half the time.
that's why I am slow to accept that someone has 'seen DI' based on how well someone rolled when they saw them play.
