Can Any One Really Control The Dice?
I think there are a number of players that use the hardway... The only time I use the hardway set
is if I am going to try to use the GTC or PARR shot on certain tables the hardway set is a
good tool to see what your dice are doing.
If my dice indicate I am showing a strong on axis finish I will go to a 3 v set because I tend to
repeat a couple of numbers more with that.
The problem with the hardway set, at least for me is that most times you are throwing 7-9
feet and your dice will rotate a couple of times and if you are only 1/4 turn off on each die you
have a 3/4 4/3 or two off and it is a 2/5 5/2 . Way to many ways to make a 7, if the dice
are almost perfect, and I am almost perfect much more than perfect . ( perfect being a hardway
finish from a hardway start)
dicesetter
Is DI possible? I'm still in the maybe category, but I think it would take far more practice than most are willing to do. Eventually it becomes like work instead of fun!!
I have given DI a good shot. I have a practice rig and have logged hours upon hours tossing the dice. The problem I have is I can't duplicate what I do at home in the casino. I have records that show higher than normal hits on the four and ten, however I can't make a four or ten if my life depended on it in live play. My conclusion is it might be possible but not by me!!
He played for hours using a martingale progression.
Chart your throws at the casino. See which numbers you are hitting there and rework your strategy on the spot. A lot of players refuse to adapt to the current playing conditions and end up losing their shirts.
Craps isn't about being stubborn. It's not about hitting the numbers you can't hit. If you have to lay a number do it. There isn't a wrong bet on the layout if your throw warrants it.
Quote: nickolay411@Mikey75
Chart your throws at the casino. See which numbers you are hitting there and rework your strategy on the spot. A lot of players refuse to adapt to the current playing conditions and end up losing their shirts.
Craps isn't about being stubborn. It's not about hitting the numbers you can't hit. If you have to lay a number do it. There isn't a wrong bet on the layout if your throw warrants it.
The problem is when I get I the casino I usually PSO. Unless I bet the don't then I make the point immediately lol. Thing is I've charted my rolls in a casino and I've never hit anything consistently. I do have a winning system for you though. I'll even give it to you for free!! Go with me and bet the exact opposite of how I bet!! If you do that you'll make a fortune!!
Quote: Mikey75The problem is when I get I the casino I usually PSO. Unless I bet the don't then I make the point immediately lol. Thing is I've charted my rolls in a casino and I've never hit anything consistently. I do have a winning system for you though. I'll even give it to you for free!! Go with me and bet the exact opposite of how I bet!! If you do that you'll make a fortune!!
Haha! Comon man! I hope you don't think like that when your up to shoot. :( Craps should be fun. Make sure you're having fun.
My longest throws came from a 3 v set with the 5/1 on top (5 point fire bet). But I threw from the corner on a 15' table so my guess is I was lucky. The next successful set was the hard way from the end of the table (this one only 12'). I hit the ATS. Probably lucky too. But every time I use the 2v set (because I love 4/10) I would seven out. Unlucky I guess. I am NOT a DC/DI. I just like the way the dice moves through the air with back spin.
Quote: mamatI played once in 2009 at Caesar's Palace with a guy who set for 6-6s. I didn't know anything about dice setting back then (and still don't now), but he threw a lot of 6-6s. Not a good time to bet pass line.
He played for hours using a martingale progression.
I bet it's the same guy I've been talking about, but playing at Harrah's instead of Caesar's that night. He and the two 7S's betting with him knew each other really well (he might be 7S too for all I know; I saw their cards but not his, he was betting green/black), the pit crew knew them, he was setting for and throwing 6-6 at a high rate. I suppose it's more likely it wasn't him, but how many are there? Probably in his mid-late 60's, maybe 5'9", thinning partly bald white hair, paunchy/chubby but not really fat, soft-spoken...sound familiar? lol...
Quote: Mikey75
I have given DI a good shot. I have a practice rig and have logged hours upon hours tossing the dice. The problem I have is I can't duplicate what I do at home in the casino. I have records that show higher than normal hits on the four and ten, however I can't make a four or ten if my life depended on it in live play. My conclusion is it might be possible but not by me!!
The problem with any so-called DI is that they can't do what they do at home in the casinos! These guys that took an on-axis DI class think that they're going to kill the casinos. They read all of the fiction that is on the on axis DI craps boards and they think that they will be taking hundreds of thousands of dollars off the casinos every year.
The reality of it is that they will become losers. They can practice all they want to on their little practice rig's, but when it comes to playing on real tables in the casinos. They become just one more random roller that is losing their money!
The only ones that make money off these so-called DI's are the guys that have the on axis DI schools and there not making it on the craps tables. They make their money off of teaching not playing!
The owners of the on-axis schools, all still have their day jobs, and that should tell you the real story of trying to become a so-called DI!
Quote: Mikey75Instead of starting a new thread I'm going to post this question here. If a person believed in DI how many tosses would it take to confirm he had a edge with the dice? If someone made a 1000 tosses and had a average of one seven in every eight tosses instead of one seven in six tosses, would you say he had a edge? If not what would be the magic number to determine this?
Hopefully someone can answer this for you more properly, but I can tell you for sure it would not be a mere 1000 tosses unless the number of 7s was really tiny.
you eliminate 2 of the ways to make a 7 *IF* the dice never rolls onto the 1 or 6 side.
but that's IMPOSSIBLE once you hit the triangles in the back wall,
It then becomes random, right?
Quote: odiousgambitHopefully someone can answer this for you more properly, but I can tell you for sure it would not be a mere 1000 tosses unless the number of 7s was really tiny.
As I wrote in a recent Article:
http://www.wizardofvegas.com/articles/The-Proof-Is-In-The-Pudding/
Quote:we accept that a Seven should randomly show up in one out of every six rolls, then we would expect roughly 1,667 sevens in 10,000 rolls. However, if a Dice Influencer could achieve only one Seven in every 6.5 rolls, then we would expect to see a Seven in 1,538 of 10,000 rolls.
Using the following binomial distribution calculator:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html
We can input 10,000 trials and a probability of 1/6 and determine that the probability of randomly achieving 1538, or less, sevens in 10,000 rolls is 0.000291, or 1/.000291 = 1 in 3,436, roughly.
I mean, actually getting only one set of rolls to do that and pulling it off would convince me. What is the best SRR (assuming the DI DOES NOT want sevens) that anyone has ever claimed?
It can't be harder to achieve a certain ratio with less trials than with more trials in my thinking, since I expect the law of large numbers to take more hold with more trials. In other words, in 10 rolls a 7 might be rolled nearly every time and it would mean next to nothing. As we go larger in the number of rolls the same ratio should make the denominator in "the chances of" get larger, not smaller. To exaggerate, chances of pulling off 1/5 are less meaningful than chances of pulling off 1/5000.
The calculator then seems to be saying in 1000 rolls, it requires more luck to pull off one 7 in 8 than if you did the same ratio in 10000 rolls. Wrong. Less trials should mean more chance of anomaly.
So either the calculator blows or we are not using the results correctly.
PS: third possibility: I'm an idiot who can't see what he is doing wrong
I think your suggesting that a throw that allows the dice to settle with less randomness after the dice hit the table , and a throw that
keeps the dice off the alligator board, will have exactly the same outcome as a toss that hits the back wall hard and the dice
bounce all over the table.
Do you really believe that???
dicesetter
Quote: odiousgambitusing that calculator, Pierce, I get the chances of rolling a ratio of one seven in eight for 1000 rolls as 0.000151243675 or 1/6612 roughly as opposed to 1/3436 roughly doing the same ratio in 10,000 rolls. That makes no sense to me. I think I am using the calculator correctly since I can get the same answer you do for 10,000.
In my quote, the 10,000 trials is for one seven in every 6.5 rolls, not one seven in every eight rolls.
Quote: Mikey75Thanks for the replies. I was just curious how many rolls it would take to verify a edge. 10,000 would probably do it.
It all depends on how big your edge is.
The bigger the possible player edge embedded in your throwing technique, the fewer rolls required to demonstrate it.
In my recorded samples, here's the theoretical edges and p-values that I obtained for a couple of distributions versus what was expected.
Quote: Ahigh Statistics
1 ) aaron_sr1_2012-08-05-1245pm.txt
2 ) aaron_sr1_2012-08-07-0833pm.txt
3 ) aaron_sr1_2012-08-08-1006pm.txt
4 ) aaron_sr1_2012-08-13-0931pm.txt
5 ) aaron_sr1_2012-09-01-0207pm.txt
6 ) aaron_sr1_2012-09-08-0123pm.txt
7 ) aaron_sr1_2012-09-09-0307pm.txt
8 ) aaron_sr1_2012-09-09-0803pm.txt
9 ) aaron_sr1_2012-09-14-1011pm.txt
10) aaron_sr1_2012-09-18-1027pm.txt
11) aaron_sr1_2012-09-23-0629pm.txt
12) aaron_sr1_2012-09-23-0858pm.txt
13) aaron_sr1_2012-10-10-0840pm.txt
14) aaron_sr1_2013-01-13-0917pm.txt
15) aaron_sr1_2013-01-21-0811pm.txt
16) aaron_sr1_2013-01-22-0056pm.txt
17) aaron_sr1_2013-01-22-1056pm.txt
18) aaron_sr1_2013-01-29-0850pm.txt
19) aaron_sr1_2013-02-05-0904pm.txt
20) aaron_sr1_2013-02-12-0838pm.txt
21) aaron_sr1_2013-02-19-0909pm.txt
22) aaron_sr1_2013-03-05-0910pm.txt
23) aaron_sr1_2013-04-02-0851pm.txt
24) aaron_sr1_2013-04-09-0957pm.txt
Total rolls: 3399
1) 1124 16.53% - 16.67 = (-0.13)-------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 1128 16.59% - 16.67 = (-0.07)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 1112 16.36% - 16.67 = (-0.31)-------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1183 17.40% - 16.67 = (+0.74)----------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1147 16.87% - 16.67 = (+0.21)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 1104 16.24% - 16.67 = (-0.43)------------------------------------------------- 6
X**2: 3.60 p: 0.60762
fw 1124,1128,1112,1183,1147,1104 1124,1128,1112,1183,1147,1104
11: --------------------- 2 (83)
12: --------------------------- 3 (105)
21: -------------------------- 3 (104)
13: ---------------------- 4 (88)
22: ------------------------- 4 (99)
31: ----------------------- 4 (90)
14: ------------------------ 5 (93)
23: ----------------------- 5 (90)
32: ----------------------- 5 (90)
41: ------------------------ 5 (95)
15: ------------------------- 6 (100)
24: -------------------------- 6 (101)
33: ---------------------- 6 (86)
42: -------------------------- 6 (102)
51: -------------------------- 6 (101)
16: ----------------------- 7 (90)
25: --------------------- 7 (82)
34: ---------------------- 7 (88)
43: ----------------------- 7 (90)
52: ----------------------- 7 (91)
61: ----------------------- 7 (92)
26: --------------------- 8 (82)
35: ------------------------- 8 (100)
44: ---------------------------- 8 (112)
53: -------------------------- 8 (101)
62: --------------------- 8 (83)
36: -------------------------- 9 (101)
45: -------------------------- 9 (101)
54: -------------------------- 9 (102)
63: -------------------------- 9 (102)
46: ------------------------ 10 (93)
55: -------------------------- 10 (101)
64: ------------------------ 10 (94)
56: --------------------- 11 (83)
65: --------------------- 11 (84)
66: ------------------------- 12 (100)
X**2: 22.67 p: 0.94645
2) 83 2.44% - 2.78% = -0.34% (-11.42)-------- 2
3) 209 6.15% - 5.56% = 0.59% (+20.17)------------------- 3
4) 277 8.15% - 8.33% = -0.18% (-6.25)------------------------- 4
5) 368 10.83% - 11.11% = -0.28% (-9.67)--------------------------------- 5
6) 490 14.42% - 13.89% = 0.53% (+17.92)-------------------------------------------- 6
7) 533 15.68% - 16.67% = -0.99% (-33.50)------------------------------------------------ 7
8) 478 14.06% - 13.89% = 0.17% (+5.92)------------------------------------------- 8
9) 406 11.94% - 11.11% = 0.83% (+28.33)------------------------------------ 9
10) 288 8.47% - 8.33% = 0.14% (+4.75)--------------------------10
11) 167 4.91% - 5.56% = -0.64% (-21.83)---------------11
12) 100 2.94% - 2.78% = 0.16% (+5.58)---------12
X**2: 11.71 p: 0.30461
4:7 ratio is 51.970% - 50.000% = +1.970% (+3.94% diff)
5:7 ratio is 69.043% - 66.667% = +2.376% (+3.56% diff)
6:7 ratio is 91.932% - 83.333% = +8.599% (+10.32% diff)
8:7 ratio is 89.681% - 83.333% = +6.348% (+7.62% diff)
9:7 ratio is 76.173% - 66.667% = +9.506% (+14.26% diff)
10:7 ratio is 54.034% - 50.000% = +4.034% (+8.07% diff)
X**2: 5.29 p: 0.50696
Observed: 533.0 sevens - 2866.0 non sevens RSR 6.3771
Expected: 566.5 sevens - 2832.5 non sevens RSR 6.0000
X**2: 2.38 p: 0.12312
Seven outs 379 (71.11%) - Seven winners 154 (28.89%)
Pairs 581 17.09% - 16.67% = 0.43% (+14.50 rolls)
Hards 398 11.71% - 11.11% = 0.60% (+20.33 rolls)
HiLos 183 5.38% - 5.56% = -0.17% (-5.83 rolls)
H2 83/25 ( 2.44% - 2.78% = -11.42)
H4 99/26 ( 2.91% - 2.78% = +4.58)
H6 86/31 ( 2.53% - 2.78% = -8.42)
H8 112/23 ( 3.30% - 2.78% = +17.58)
H10 101/34 ( 2.97% - 2.78% = +6.58)
H12 100/19 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +5.58)
EZ: 2818 (82.91% - 83.33% = -14.50)
X**2: 6.49 p: 0.37046
This data was not cherry picked, but you have to take my word on that. I will tell you that it was difficult to not cherry pick.
I think I have some more recordings on my laptop, but this was all I had on the desktop. I may replace this with more complete data if there is any interest.
I haven't done anything with this software in a long time, but I have revision controlled this stuff and have it pretty well maintained. I think I stopped working on this back in November 2013. But I may have a need to get back in here and see how my motor skills look under a chi-squared test.
The observed number of sevens was the only thing that had even a reasonably small p-value. And 0.12 is not that amazing.
You can definitely get smaller p-values with fewer samples, but to get a p-value like 0.000001 would be what you would want to do.
Rolls to seven ratio of 6.3771 in this sample set for this number of samples just isn't that amazing, really. Happens once out of every 8 times you record this many throws, except that half of those times, the ratio has as many more sevens as fewer. So you could make the argument that to get this ratio of sevens randomly I might have to record this many throws without cherry picking 16 times on average to get this good of a result on that metric.
Not all that amazing, really.
But I have spent more time on my throw since this date even though I mostly gave up trying. I do believe that my ability to throw with precision is better than it has ever been. I just don't know that that ability has any beneficial results at all.
Quote: AhighI do believe that my ability to throw with precision is better than it has ever been. I just don't know that ability has any beneficial results at all.
yeah, I was wondering how you would overcome the randomness of the triangles on the back wall?
Quote: AhighI do believe that my ability to throw with precision is better than it has ever been. I just don't know that that ability has any beneficial results at all.
Hard 8 was your number, wasn't it?
All evidence aside, what is your gut telling you? PM, if you prefer
I was the shooter and one of the dice flew off the table.
Guy next to me told the dealer to take all his bets off the table.
He said he doesn't like the dice switched in the middle of a shooters roll.
He mentioned that binions will switch the dice on a hot shooter, he said he hates that.
The pit boss said they never do that here at the freemont.
I then got into a conversation with the pit boss.
I told him I miss the stickman chatter.
He said you got that right, its a lost art
He said there was a time when you didn't get hired as a craps dealer unless you had the chatter down
Every once in a while I will come across a stickman with great chatter.
I miss that
On the flip side, some of the stickmen hired these days don't speak great English.
Sometimes the number is just muttered and gamblers have to ask again what was rolled
Quote: 100xOddsyeah, I was wondering how you would overcome the randomness of the triangles on the back wall?
Who says your dice have to hit the pyramids? There is plenty of room under them.
I would love to see someone influence the dice(enough to gain an advantage) without hitting the back wall(obviously from a reasonable distance)Quote: AlanMendelsonWho says your dice have to hit the pyramids? There is plenty of room under them.
Quote: Mission146In my quote, the 10,000 trials is for one seven in every 6.5 rolls, not one seven in every eight rolls.
regardless, don't miss the point that the calculator seems to not function correctly, I don't trust it
I agree with the conclusions you made generally
Sounds like someone needs to start a support group, DI/Anonymous : )Quote: Dicenor33Sands in Pensilvaniia is full of DI's. You can not even get to the table. If they had 20 more tables they would also be occupied by super shooters. It seems there is a competition among DI's who'll loose the most. One of the best can easily loose $ 40 grand, keep trying, see if you can brake the house.
Quote: AxelWolfI would love to see someone influence the dice(enough to gain an advantage) without hitting the back wall(obviously from a reasonable distance)
Alan didn't say not to hit the back wall. If you actually look at the diamonds there is a flat area below the pattern. The only way IMHO to influence the dice in any way is to get them to do a dead cat bounce. Believe me it's hard to do. I have practiced it for many years and still haven't perfected it yet, though I'm getting better. I've seen AHIGH's videos on YOUTUBE. All of his throws and his friends throws all splatter all over the place. If the dice splatter it a random throw period. One of these days I look forward to meeting AHIGH to show him what I can do and record it. You guys have beat up on poor Alan on here for years. All the non-believers ought to listen to him. And far as I am concerned he is the only one on this forum that has a clue about dice influencing. All of you are to quick to kick him in the shins. I'm not trying to get Zen here, but if you would stop, listen, and maybe think about what someone said you might actually learn something instead of just giving the first knee jerk reaction that pops into your narrow little mind. Just my two cents.
Quote: badboynazAlan didn't say not to hit the back wall. If you actually look at the diamonds there is a flat area below the pattern. The only way IMHO to influence the dice in any way is to get them to do a dead cat bounce. Believe me it's hard to do. I have practiced it for many years and still haven't perfected it yet, though I'm getting better. I've seen AHIGH's videos on YOUTUBE. All of his throws and his friends throws all splatter all over the place. If the dice splatter it a random throw period. One of these days I look forward to meeting AHIGH to show him what I can do and record it. You guys have beat up on poor Alan on here for years. All the non-believers ought to listen to him. And far as I am concerned he is the only one on this forum that has a clue about dice influencing. All of you are to quick to kick him in the shins. I'm not trying to get Zen here, but if you would stop, listen, and maybe think about what someone said you might actually learn something instead of just giving the first knee jerk reaction that pops into your narrow little mind. Just my two cents.
badboy,
I don't mind the passionate defense of DI and Alan too much, but telling Axel he has a "narrow little mind" is dangerously close to a personal insult. First (and last) warning. Thanks.
Quote: badboynaz...You guys have beat up on poor Alan on here for years. All the non-believers ought to listen to him. And far as I am concerned he is the only one on this forum that has a clue about dice influencing. All of you are to quick to kick him in the shins...
Alan and his followers purport nothing but voodoo nonsense. Read his TA thread on his site.
Better? How frequently can you throw a dead cat bounce? Once every 100 throws gives you the edge over the casino if you know how to bet it properly.Quote: badboynazAlan didn't say not to hit the back wall. If you actually look at the diamonds there is a flat area below the pattern. The only way IMHO to influence the dice in any way is to get them to do a dead cat bounce. Believe me it's hard to do. I have practiced it for many years and still haven't perfected it yet, though I'm getting better.
I've thrown a dead cat bounce two or three times in my life, all of them by accident.
Quote: IbeatyouracesAlan and his followers purport nothing but voodoo nonsense. Read his TA thread on his site.
I don't FOLLOW anyone. I was doing this before anybody even heard of dice influencing. This is the knee jerk reaction I was talking about. I'm not trying to sell books or get famous. I just want to stick it to the man and take some money from the corporations. Which I do more often than not.
Quote: badboynazI don't FOLLOW anyone. I was doing this before anybody even heard of dice influencing. This is the knee jerk reaction I was talking about. I'm not trying to sell books or get famous. I just want to stick it to the man and take some money from the corporations. Which I do more often than not.
Then why even discuss it? Just go out and become a billionaire.
If the dice were orientated the same, thrown the same and the conditions were the same, the end results would be some sort of bell curve surely? Imagine perfect dice (that never wear), thrown by a robot arm that also never suffers from wear or fatigue, thrown against a foam diamond wall, again that never suffers from wear, all in a vacuum.
The downside is, it has to be next to impossible to replicate the same conditions on any given throw, and everything is subject to wear and tear etc..
Quote: MathExtremistBetter? How frequently can you throw a dead cat bounce? Once every 100 throws gives you the edge over the casino if you know how to bet it properly.
I've thrown a dead cat bounce two or three times in my life, all of them by accident.
Plastic was invented by accident. A cat knocked over some polymers and the scientist reverse engineered what the cat did. IF you practice it you will be able to do it more often. Most pitchers don't throw curve balls in little league. It's something they have to work at, practice, and be conscious of there goal. If you want to be successful at anything you have to have an idea, practice, and then test to see if it works. All you guys are so quick to condem. Everything I have seen about DI is bassed on the GTC method. THat isn't the only way to do it.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThen why even discuss it? Just go out and become a billionaire.
That is a lot of zeros. I've already done six figures. Eight figures takes time. I paid off my first house playing blackjack, and now working on the second. Are you going to tell me it's all smoke and mirrors?
Quote: badboynazThat is a lot of zeros. I've already done six figures. Eight figures takes time. I paid off my first house playing blackjack, and now working on the second. Are you going to tell me it's all smoke and mirrors?
Don Johnson "supposedly" won $15 million at blackjack with nothing but basic strategy and a loss rebate he never needed to use. What's your point?
Quote: IbeatyouracesDon Johnson "supposedly" won $15 million at blackjack with nothing but basic strategy and a loss rebate he never needed to use. What's your point?
The point is I know how to make money gambling. And it doesn't matter if you believe me or not.
Quote: badboynazThe point is I know how to make money gambling. And it doesn't matter if you believe me or not.
So do I and the phony concept of DI isn't one of them that will work.
My point is, just go out and do it and stop trying to convince anyone. Doesn't matter if it works or not.
Quote: badboynazThe only way IMHO to influence the dice in any way is to get them to do a dead cat bounce. Believe me it's hard to do. I have practiced it for many years and still haven't perfected it yet, though I'm getting better.
Try to square the above statement with your first post here a couple days ago , where you claimed as to your ability to throw a dead cat bounce that you: " personally can do this about 50% of the time or better."
You claim you haven't perfected it, but you throw a dcb at least half the time?
hmmm
To my knowledge, nobody has ever successfully demonstrated any ability to make dice stick to the table (and not bounce or tumble) after they land. If you can, please post a video.
Quote:can you guys build a nuclear bomb?
Can you jump out of a tall building, flap your wings, and fly like a bird?
Can you live forever?
Quote:Just because you can't doesn't mean that nobody in the world can't.
Now, do you see how silly your argument is?
Do they still land on their feet?
