Strickly Theoretical - Optimum Axis for PA
First let's assume you do not have revolutionary control, so the dice rotate independently and randomly about the axis.
For the come out roll, the 6-1 axis on both dice would appear optimal.
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
Gives possible rolls of 2-2, 2-3 3-2, 2-4 4-2, 3-3, 2-5 5-2, 3-4 4-3, 3-5 5-3, 4-4, 4-5 5-4, 5-5. Sixteen possibilities instead of 36 using all 6 sides of the dice. Distribution is one 4/10, two 5/9, three 6/8 and four 7s. Odds of winning pass line bet on first roll four in sixteen (.25) with no chance of losing. {Compared to 8 in 36 (.222...) with the possibility of throwing craps and losing.} Betting one unit on each possible hard way (4/6/8/10) and 2 units on each combination (2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 3-4, 3-5 & 4-5) covering all possibilities at a cost of 16 units with a payout of 31 or 16*2=32. Doubling ones $$ on first roll.
However, after the come out roll, these axis don't seem to be optimum, since the frequency of 7 is higher than any of the points and the chances of hitting a 4 or 10 is only one in five throws (.2). 5/9 wins twice in six throws or (.333...). 6/8 is three in seven or (~.43). We definitely need less sevens or we'll be coughing up the dice more than necessary.
Anyways, turning one of the die so it is on the 3/4 axis results in 2/3/4/5 & 1/2/5/6 faces and rolls of 2-1. 2-2, 3-1, 3-2, 4-1, 4-2, 5-1, 2-5 5-2, 3-5, 2-6, 4-5, 3-6, 4-6, 5-5, & 5-6. For a distribution of one 3/11 and two each of 4/5/6/7/8/9/10. For even odds (.5) of making any point. Total odds of winning on pass line of .25(first roll) + .5 = .75 !!! Comments?
Great bets Hard 4/10 and 2-5 combination. Odds looks good and buying 6/8 is ok, 5/9 better and 4/10 'mo' better.
There is a slightly improved roll using the 5-2 & 6-1 axis instead of the 3-4 for making 6/8. This gives frequencies of one 3/4/10/11, two 5/7/9, & three 6/8. Improving the odds of winning on 6/8 to three in five or (.6) for a total Pass win of .85 with 6/8 point. Overall Pass win expectation using the 3 different axis combinations would be about 79%. Odds bet is good - buying 6/8 best, 5/9 good and Hard 6/8 - 3-4 combination.
For setting simplicity pin the 1s together in the middle for come out roll ('blinding the snake eyes') - pin 1-2 together for 6/8 and pin 1-3 together for all other pts. Easy as one two three...
Still thinkin'.......
P.S. 1-2 & 1-3 sets equally good for 5/9 pts flip a coin. Maybe using 1-3 would look slightly more 'natural' with more 6/8s than 4/10s likely to be thrown??
Quote: DeMangoV2, bang out 4's and 10's. Next question? And why is this question being asked here instead of a dice board?
Hmmm??? Why wouldn't this be a dice setting question/discussion? If you're going to set the dice, wouldn't it be nice to know the optimum axis to choose to try rolling on??
Come-out:
Craps: 2-1
Natural: 2-5, 5-2, 5-6
4: 2-2, 3-1
5: 3-2, 4-1
6: 4-2, 5-1
8: 2-6, 3-5
9: 3-6, 4-5
10: 4-6, 5-5
EV on a pass line bet is +1/8 (in 16 bets, 3 naturals, 1 craps, and the points are all 50-50 propositions).
In addition, the EV on a hardway 4 or 10 is +0.75 if 6-1, or +1 if 7-1, since there is one winning pair (2-2/5-5) and only three losing pairs (3-1/4-6, 2-5, 5-2).
A thought, those using the hard way set 4/6/8/10 (uses double 1-6 axis) - why not rotate one die 180 to have a 3-4 2-5 set then bet 2 on each of those combinations instead on 1 on each of the 4 hard ways. You win an extra couple chips at 16-1 v 31-1 payouts (same at 15-1/30-1) plus win the pass line with the exact same roll with the change set??? Too obvious? That hard way set is a dead give away when you're betting it too. By using the sevens set you could still bet the hard ways, if one die happens to roll a half revolution more than the other you would win with out the obvious dice set.
All we need is some idiot savant who could throw the dice perfectly every time to find out. With the dice traveling at identical speeds, revolving equally, hitting identical table and dice surface, equidistant from the wall, bouncing same height, hitting identical back wall/dice surface, bouncing same distance to the table, again on identical dice/table surfaces to tumble to the predetermined number - pls no applause... Next roll please.
Quote: go4itThis is a great option for making 4/5/9/10 points, but for the come out roll the 1-6 -- 1-6 should be vastly superior. Four naturals(2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3) vs three with NO craps possibility vs one. In addition, trading 16 chips for 32/34 by betting one each on hard 4/6/8/10 and 2 each on the six possible combinations 2-3, 2-4, 2-5, 3-4, 3-5, 4-5 would be hard to beat.
A thought, those using the hard way set 4/6/8/10 (uses double 1-6 axis) - why not rotate one die 180 to have a 3-4 2-5 set then bet 2 on each of those combinations instead on 1 on each of the 4 hard ways. You win an extra couple chips at 16-1 v 31-1 payouts (same at 15-1/30-1) plus win the pass line with the exact same roll with the change set??? Too obvious? That hard way set is a dead give away when you're betting it too. By using the sevens set you could still bet the hard ways, if one die happens to roll a half revolution more than the other you would win with out the obvious dice set.
Don't waste your keystrokes-dice control/dice influence doesn't exist without legitimate proof. Send me pictures of thousands in cash and only then will I consider the validity of your claims...in theory.
Quote: MaxSwelleDon't waste your keystrokes-dice control/dice influence doesn't exist without legitimate proof. Send me pictures of thousands in cash and only then will I consider the validity of your claims.
Read thread title - I made no 'claim' - this is simply theory. If it can be done, this would be the optimal goal. Seems to me some of those setting and attempting to throw on the same axis for both come out and point making rolls might improve their results if they tried an 'optimal' set for each. Seven on come out roll good - seven on point roll very bad etc. - using same set for both seems counterproductive when there are alternatives. I'm not selling any book or courses or anything else. I'm a retired mathematician with too much time on my hands, who stumbled onto advantage craps threads and decided to try to figure the theoretical possibilities. I don't gamble-I doubt I'd find it entertaining to throw my money away on chance. When I invest I try to do due diligence and keep the 'gambling' to a minimum. Sooo, it someone has tried this and has any data or success - I'm curious. Anyone out there with a consistent 79% pass line win percentage or better?? Let us know - curious just how long it would take to get 86'd with this level of success. Hopefully, not the mafia version of 86'd. (Eight ft long - six ft deep) Suppose you wouldn't be available to answer thread then would you?!
That's really, all there is to it, in theory, I think.
EDIT: Think I messed up on the "how many different ways the dice can land" thing....but yeah. Or am I missing something?
Quote: go4itPerhaps once one has mastered the perfect rolling on an axis...
...some idiot savant who could throw the dice perfectly every time to find out. With the dice traveling at identical speeds, revolving equally, hitting identical table and dice surface, equidistant from the wall, bouncing same height, hitting identical back wall/dice surface, bouncing same distance to the table, again on identical dice/table surfaces to tumble to the predetermined number - pls no applause... Next roll please.
Your'e asking the following: theoretically, does perfection exist?
Quote: RSTheoretically, the axis could have 1/6 on the sides (so only 2,3,4,5 can land) on both dice. Hop every number that does not include a 1 or 6 (so there should be [i think] 25 such numbers...ie: remove 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 62, 63, 64, 65, and 66). There are 4 hard-hops, hop 'em for 1 unit each and the easy hops for 2 units each. You'll win 6 units every roll. And assuming your unit is much larger than your line bet....your line bet will simply be "noise", ie: the greater the difference between your unit ($100 ea) and your line bet ($5), the closer you'll be to EV = 6 units / roll. (Sometimes you'll win $595, most of the time $600, and sometimes $605.)
That's really, all there is to it, in theory, I think.
EDIT: Think I messed up on the "how many different ways the dice can land" thing....but yeah. Or am I missing something?
Yes. The non-doubles (12, 13, etc.) can each be thrown twice. It may be easier to understand if you assume one die is red and the other is green.
The sixteen I listed in first post
(2-2, 2-3 3-2, 2-4 4-2, 3-3, 2-5 5-2, 3-4 4-3, 3-5 5-3, 4-4, 4-5 5-4, 5-5).
Hmmm 6 things taken 2 at a time gives me 36 possibilities - 4 things taken 2 at a time gives 16. Sixteen possibilities without a 6 or 1 and twenty with one or both. So if you can do the come out roll and NOT see a 1 or 6 more than you do see them, perhaps you've been able to introduce a bias from the expected 4/9ths ratio or it's just a random deviation from expectations. A quantum answer to randomness - observing results expecting randomness gets you observed randomness - observing results expecting bias gives one possible biased events. NOT sure I have the faith to believe all results in a physical game craps, roulette, card shuffling, etc can achieve randomness without some bias (seen or unseen) being present. The 64 million dollar question is can the bias be discovered and exploited to overcome the intrinsic 'unfairness' or house advantage (house bias). Again a quantum question is a consistent winner just lucky or consciously (or subconsciously) biasing the results.
Quote: RSTheoretically,
That's really, all there is to it, in theory, I think.
EDIT: Think I messed up on the "how many different ways the dice can land" thing....but yeah. Or am I missing something?
Your missing this: Slow motion videos of dice shots.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2FYrndlrpc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jej4WNRGyR8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiZf3jbjie0&list=UUfDRf2L1rCEgYtGFlS_z9ag
Theory is something that you can never count on, but you can on reality, and the reality of when you throw the dice is they bounce all over the place! The casinos have a truly random game even when the dice do not hit the back wall!
IF you are an AP, you would seek to find some PA. Obviously those dice are not revolving on axis in the videos after contact with reality. Whether another player could do better is an open question. Odds are good that we aren't seeing the all star axis thrower... and there probably exists someone who could do it better. Frankly, if someone could make the hard way set work - using an all seven set would seem a much better choice for the come out roll. Especially if you bet 34 43 and 25 52 combinations. Thus winning 16-1 plus pass line bet. Doing that 1 in 4 times or more would be a huge player advantage. Which would be partially negated by using the same set for a pt making roll. A change in set would be highly advisable.
If setting the dice and throwing consistently trying to maintain axis and hitting appropriately does NOT introduce a bias in results, then there is no harm in trying(except you might be accused of trying to cheat). If it does produce a players advantage, I guess you would then be cheating by Nevada law and in the view of the casino and anyone playing the dark side. Prosecution would be rather difficult, where would you find 12 people & a judge who actually believe this is possible and not just random lucky results. I wouldn't bet my money on it until I was fully convinced I or some other 'special' person was really able to do it. I'm sure the casino would be easier to convince than I am and would ban such a person before they bankrupted the casino. On the other hand I don't think I'd bet against someone doing this in a casino either. Betting on snake eyes and box cars are already heavily biased against you, with someone rolling on the 16 61 axis they would be far worse.
Nevada Law on cheating is rather ridiculous imho. If I play roulette for three hours and win, am I cheating since there's over an 80% probability I should be losing? If I'm at a table with 10 players, eight should be losing - if they notice me winning and follow my lead are we all cheating if we win? OH well...
In my own throwing, I finally concluded that they dice land together too frequently and 'explode' apart, clearly completely unacceptable. So I have modified the throw to eliminate that.
As ever, my disclaimer:
Setting is all 'entertainment only' for me, I have no evidence that I can make it work at all.
Quote: superrick
Theory is something that you can never count on, but you can on reality, and the reality of when you throw the dice is they bounce all over the place! The casinos have a truly random game even when the dice do not hit the back wall!
Oh really supperick! Tell me if in these videos below the dice are bouncing all over the place? This is a real controlled throw.
Heli Shot 1
Heli Shot 2
If you are going to use the excuse that these shots are not legal well then what if there was a fine balance between this helicopter shot and your given up throw? Think outside the BOX! Since I admire the work of John May I easily preach his philosophy; it's on us to invent , push and define new AP opportunities. Or you can give up if you want...
Cheerios
Quote: DeMangoV2, bang out 4's and 10's. Next question? And why is this question being asked here instead of a dice board?
Because this is exactly where it should be asked.
Quote: odiousgambit
In my own throwing, I finally concluded that they dice land together too frequently and 'explode' apart, clearly completely unacceptable.
Probably - unless they some how managed to each continue to roll on axis. Not very likely, but neither is being able to throw and roll on a single axis.
The helicopter shots look alot like a sliding shot, especially in slow motion. Curious how many one would be able to throw before receiving some unwanted attention. A bit of a slight of hand magical result. Probably works best with smoke, mirrors, and a beautiful assistant...
Quote: go4itProbably - unless they some how managed to each continue to roll on axis. Not very likely, but neither is being able to throw and roll on a single axis.
The helicopter shots look alot like a sliding shot, especially in slow motion. Curious how many one would be able to throw before receiving some unwanted attention. A bit of a slight of hand magical result. Probably works best with smoke, mirrors, and a beautiful assistant...
You got the mirror part right. Also known as a "whip shot", the way to make this work is to bounce the dice off the mirror on the wall, which will quickly get you a warning - whether it's for attempted cheating or "we don't want the mirror to break or dice to chip".
Quote: nickolay411Oh really supperick! Tell me if in these videos below the dice are bouncing all over the place? This is a real controlled throw.
Heli Shot 1
Heli Shot 2
If you are going to use the excuse that these shots are not legal well then what if there was a fine balance between this helicopter shot and your given up throw? Think outside the BOX! Since I admire the work of John May I easily preach his philosophy; it's on us to invent , push and define new AP opportunities. Or you can give up if you want...
Cheerios
Thanks for the videos,..The problem with what you are looking at it they would last for one shot. If they even lasted that long! Most likely they would be called a no roll, or even a slide.
They may work if you were playing street craps with the Boysss, if they were so stupid to allow you to get away with using that shot. But when we are taking about shots, that is what might happen to the guy trying to pull off that shot playing street craps!
To put it plan and very simple when you are playing bank craps, or what everybody called casino craps you are not throwing the dice into a little box with no rubber diamonds for the dice to hit, and you are made to actually throw to dice in the air, not try to slide them down the table!
Don't try that shot in Philly or Chicago or any other inner-city place were street craps are played. You may not like the results you get from the other players. Forget about trying it in a casino, unless all of the dealers are blind, and the suits just went to see why all of the cameras in the casino just went down!
I hate to say it but you wasted a lot of time even finding or making those videos, because that shot would never fly in a casino! I think outside the box all of the time, and I play craps all of the time. We do not play street craps and we don't throw the dice into a little box where the dice can slide around.
I do like to see players thinking about different shots and what they will do. This morning I had some drunk player pick up the dice when he first got the dice at where he should have been shooting from SR 3 and was going to do what the stick person told him to do and that was to hit the back wall, he walked down to the left side of the table and was going to do something down there with the dice, like I guess hit the back wall, who knows what the hell this drunk was thinking!
I guess he was thinking outside of the box! To bad the dealer boxman and suit didn't see it his way, hell I might have even made money on him if I only bet his roll, he may have come up with a new shot to use that would win every time he made it, it everybody was blind.
If everybody on this board knew who John May was we might like his easily preach philosophy, to bad there is a very good chance that nobody knows who your writing about!
...
Quote: superrick
I hate to say it but you wasted a lot of time even finding or making those videos, because that shot would never fly in a casino! I think outside the box all of the time, and I play craps all of the time. We do not play street craps and we don't throw the dice into a little box where the dice can slide around.
I don't think I wasted any time finding those videos because a lot of people have not seen them. They were performed by Steve Forte from his original game protection manual.
Of course these are one time shots. That's not the point.
The point is to use those as a base and develop a shot you could use over and over again. superrick I'm not talking about walking the dice down to the back wall and setting them there. But why are people throwing dice 2-3 feet above the table only to have them come crashing down. Why do people still persist on still using backspin! It only accelerates tumbling of the dice.
Go back and watch those videos you posted. We don't need slow motion to see they are wild and crazy. We need a shot that when filmed doesn't need slow motion. Because it so SIMPLE and CLEAR.
I'm glad your still playing superrick, keep experimenting.
There is so much room for invention... DI/DC as a developing art is so damn stagnant right now it's not funny. I leave you with the following words.
"Any degree of proficiency in the art is nothing, but a stepping stone to a higher level of mastery." - Yuri Kononenko
Quote: nickolay411I don't think I wasted any time finding those videos because a lot of people have not seen them. They were performed by Steve Forte from his original game protection manual.
Here I thought that I had seen all of Steve Forte videos, I guess not! The shot the he was trying to show in that video is actually a slide! When the dice slide down the table. The only place you could get away with that shot was in the Wynn casino, before they tried to sue the guys they said was using the slide shot, I'm not sure but I think they fired the crew that was working the table when that team as they called them were using that shot!
There has been many things written about dice control and the different shots that they say can beat the casinos, to bad all of the guys that are running the on axis dice schools still have their day jobs, and are not in the casinos every day making money on what they say can be done!
Look,.. I play craps all the time, the players that know me call me a DI, I've been doing it the same thing way before they came up with those now famous words, DICE CONTROLLER, I have to laugh at some of the things that I read on the boards. We are after all humans, we are not machines, we can't do the same thing over and over again perfectly.
Common sense would tell you that the stuff that you read on some of these DI boards is nothing but fiction, written to help sell what they are selling! No one has a SRR of 28, your not going into a casino with a $2000 buy-in and win a cool half-million dollars off of that buy-in, your not going to be losing for 18 hours straight then get two hours of sleep and win all of your money back and make a profit!
If you log into a few of the DI craps boards that is the kind of great fiction that you will be reading!
I only want to spend an hour or two in any casino when I'm playing, and if it wasn't for having really good betting skills and knowing when to walk out of the casinos I would have a hard time winning too! You can't do everything with just your shooting, you need to get lucky just like what the random rollers do everyday when they are playing! Luck has a lot to do with winning and losing when you are playing craps.
You can try to develop any shot that you think will beat the casinos, but it has to be something that they consider a legal shot, a slide shot is not legal, and if they didn't catch it on the first one you made they would the next time you did it in most casinos, if the crew is not working with you!
Lala land must be a beautiful place to live in, but I don't see it being financially stable, so you have to understand the truth about someone being a DI, they don't win all of the time, they don't do all of the things that you read about on these DI boards, and the DI boards will go out of their way to try to cut down anybody that is telling the real story!
You can try to become a DI if you have thousands of hours to invest in practicing, not only your shooting, but you need to practice your betting all of the time, you need to read everything you can get your hands on that has anything to do with casino management.
I will tell you like it really is, if you think you have what it takes, think again, most so-called DI's fail miserably! I hope that you have a sizable income that will allow you to lose. It may take you years before you have a handle on how to bet the game! There is a huge turnover on any DI's craps board, members come and go, all of the time! The failure rate has got to be 95 percent or more.
Now the DI boards will tell you that I don't know what I'm writing about, and my answer to that is I live in Vegas, I play craps all of the time, I don't come to Vegas when I have a class where I can charge to make money I make my money on the craps tables, I'm not charging hookup fees so I have a buy-in.
Just like any other type of gambling there are times that I can not win!
I wish it was different, but then I don't live in Lala land so I'm stuck with the truth, how about you?
..
Quote: superrickto bad all of the guys that are running the on axis dice schools still have their day jobs, and are not in the casinos every day making money on what they say can be done!
What they say they can do and what can be done are two separate things. A friend of mine and I viewed the GTC dvd the other day. Wow so many off axis horrendous throws! How the hell did they put that in their DVD! Double pitch triple pitch quadruple pitch! Maybe because the untrained eye can't see it and people believe what they want to believe. Win win for GTC.
Quote: superrick
If you log into a few of the DI craps boards that is the kind of great fiction that you will be reading!
Are you saying that the Mad Professor in his Atlantic City trip report is blatantly fudging the truth!!???!! His average number of rolls was 18.8. He played 38 hands with 715 rolls total. That's pretty amazing don't ya think since the average shooter rolls 8.53 times including the seven out. MustangSally, I need your help! Anyway to create an average SRR from these numbers? Here is the article.
http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad60acj.htm
Quote: superrickI only want to spend an hour or two in any casino when I'm playing, ...
I agree. I don't want to spend 18 straight hours in the casino.
Quote: superrickYou can try to develop any shot that you think will beat the casinos, but it has to be something that they consider a legal shot, a slide shot is not legal, and if they didn't catch it on the first one you made they would the next time you did it in most casinos, if the crew is not working with you!
Yes I am devleoping a shot. But I'm also developing PLAYS. I see Craps as no different than any other game. Take for instance blackjack, there are a lot of plays other than counting... Put your thinking caps on people!
Quote: superrick...they don't win all of the time, they don't do all of the things that you read about on these DI boards, and the DI boards will go out of their way to try to cut down anybody that is telling the real story!
I agree nobody wins all the time. It's whether you had a good bet or not right?
Quote: superrickI wish it was different, but then I don't live in Lala land so I'm stuck with the truth, how about you?
I guess I'm stuck in a halfway house between Lala Land and your so called "truth"
..
Quote: nickolay411Yes I am devleoping a shot. But I'm also developing PLAYS. I see Craps as no different than any other game. Take for instance blackjack, there are a lot of plays other than counting... Put your thinking caps on people!
I once thought about bumping the table when the dice are almost at rest to help your number come up. Then I realized that if I can't bump a pinball machine with good results I'd better be moving on. So I put the cap back on and moved on.
Quote: MoosetonI once thought about bumping the table when the dice are almost at rest to help your number come up. Then I realized that if I can't bump a pinball machine with good results I'd better be moving on. So I put the cap back on and moved on.
Hahah funny Mooseton. I've heard of people ordering a cold drink and using the condensation on the outside of the glass to stick the dice together. That's definitely crossing the cheating line though.
Quote: MoosetonI once thought about bumping the table when the dice are almost at rest to help your number come up. Then I realized that if I can't bump a pinball machine with good results I'd better be moving on. So I put the cap back on and moved on.
The game we will be presenting at this years G2E allows you to move the entire cabinet to increase your EV doing nudges for ball saves.
There is a meme here you've tapped into, and I have had the same thoughts on the craps table.
Doing it successfully on the craps table, however, would be against the spirit of the Nevada Gaming Law.
Not so on our game, though.
Quote: AhighThe game we will be presenting at this years G2E allows you to move the entire cabinet to increase your EV doing nudges for ball saves.
There is a meme here you've tapped into, and I have had the same thoughts on the craps table.
Doing it successfully on the craps table, however, would be against the spirit of the Nevada Gaming Law.
Not so on our game, though.
Interesting Aaron. So you've developed a player based skill game where with practice one's EV in the game could go up. But could it ever be a positive game for the player?
Quote: nickolay411Interesting Aaron. So you've developed a player based skill game where with practice one's EV in the game could go up. But could it ever be a positive game for the player?
It's ultimately an operator setting to allow advantage play, but our goals were to allow the operator to enable large positive EV for (the most) skilled players, without exposing the casino any more than any other video product on the floor.
There are some markets that limit RTP to 100% or even 99% as advised by GLI. We will disclose more at the show.
