How should my "friend" bet, considering...?
Quote: WizardSo that I don't have to rummage through ten pages of posts, can somebody please quote the eights rule or give me a direct link to the post about it.
Also, when sending me a PM about a specific post, please include a link to it. You can get the link by clicking "peralink" on any post.
It's in the post you quoted. Directly above your last post.
She must roll BOTH (28 or fewer '4s'), and (52 or more '8s'), in 360 rolls
Quote: SOOPOOShe must roll BOTH (28 or fewer '4s'), and (52 or more '8s'), in 360 rolls
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Quote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Having a multi-day event is critical to making it fair for the shooter. I typically shoot a variable number of shots these days per day in the casino, and it's not even 100 rolls typically, spread out between multiple casinos. Getting in 100 rolls on a reserved table is at least an hour. With discussions and concentration, it's going to be more than an hour.
With one person shooting the entire time, two hours is going to be exhausting. I suggest 100 to 150 rolls with a break at half-way mark on the first day of 50 to 75 whatever feels right to the shooter.
There is nothing more annoying to a shooter than to have an environment that is not ideal that is being forced on the shooter. If it is to be fair, these things are important.
Quote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
We don't need more craps threadsQuote: AhighQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
Quote: AhighQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
Disagree; the bet discussion is an outgrowth of and completely germane to the percentages claimed by the OP. It won't be me that splits it off, if it's done.
Quote: AxelWolfWe don't need more craps threadsQuote: AhighQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
The Wizard implied that soon there will be no more discussions about possible advantage play in craps on this forum. He is only allowing these sorts of discussions, "for now."
Quote: AhighQuote: AxelWolfWe don't need more craps threadsQuote: AhighQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
The Wizard implied that soon there will be no more discussions about possible advantage play in craps on this forum. He is only allowing these sorts of discussions, "for now."
How was his implication phrased? I'm quite curious.
No he didn't. He implied he was NOT going to, but would reserve the right to do so. I don't think he said people cant talk about things like this at all, he just didn't want trolls making BS claims over and over without proof. Kind of like Bob is doing.Quote: AhighQuote: AxelWolfWe don't need more craps threadsQuote: AhighQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
This thread should be split by a moderator. The topic does not match current discussions.
The Wizard implied that soon there will be no more discussions about possible advantage play in craps on this forum. He is only allowing these sorts of discussions, "for now."
I really think that should be a forum policy about systems and various gaming topics. Show proof or shut up.
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: odiousgambithttps://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/19051-how-should-my-friend-bet-considering/7/#post383583
IMO you also need to state the size of the Craps table, disallowing any tubs.
You also have an unresolved issue over how many days this should take. You should get input from the woman. 2 days minimum or the "don't" bettors [meaning she fails] are seeking an advantage over the rightside bettors!
I suggest once all is nailed down, you start a new thread with such as the first post.
Good idea on the stipulations. Bad idea on the new thread. Please do keep this whole thing, start to finish, in one thread.
I was thinking yesterday that I have seen no stipulation saying that the rolls have to be those that would be acceptable in a casino to count, i.e. hit the back wall, etc. I would think that would be important to this, even if implied from the beginning. A "no roll" in a casino should not count for this experiment/bet.
I specifically did mention that. You can look back and find the post.... I'll try to find it and reprint it. I always say to these DI claimers that the dice must be thrown with one hand, in the air, and that both dice must hit the back wall. I always add that the tosser can stand in any generally approved position; I take that to mean they must stand on one side of the table and toss them bones to the opposite side.
Quote: SOOPOOSo we have a deal? $2500 put up by you, $2500 put up by me. She must roll 360 times. Standard Las Vegas craps rules. She must toss the dice from one hand, they must travel in the air and hit the back wall. She can stand where a normal dice thrower can stand. If she rolls BOTH 28 or fewer 4's, AND 52 or more 8's, you win. If she fails on either number, I win.
Once you respond affirmatively I'll speak with Ahigh.
No cameras is fine with me. too.
BBB- this is the post I was referring to.
So Max.... since I don't seem able to twist Ahigh's arm hard enough, if you can secure the table we can do this on, and the times needed, the bet will be on!
Mike (Wizard) has agreed to hold the money, and referee the event. I'm ready to mail the Wiz my check as soon as you say so. If there is anything I left out, let me know.
Quote: SOOPOOAs far as the suggestion that this be a multi-day event, I was hoping to do it in one day. That being said, if Max's roller says she can do it but will need two days, I would reluctantly be agreeable to that. That would have to be established in advance, as I don't come to Vegas solely to participate in these events.
So Max.... since I don't seem able to twist Ahigh's arm hard enough, if you can secure the table we can do this on, and the times needed, the bet will be on!
Mike (Wizard) has agreed to hold the money, and referee the event. I'm ready to mail the Wiz my check as soon as you say so. If there is anything I left out, let me know.
As I previously stated, the table is not a problem and I'm sure it will be to your satisfaction. Also, we will use a brand sleeve of casino dice (feel free to provide them). I am in communication with her in regards to the date(s) and any other variables that must be addressed on her end.
Quote: MaxSwelleAs I previously stated, the table is not a problem and I'm sure it will be to your satisfaction. Also, we will use a brand sleeve of casino dice (feel free to provide them). I am in communication with her in regards to the date(s) and any other variables that must be addressed on her end.
Super. Looking forward to it!
WinCraps can answer your questionQuote: MaxSwelleConsidering the following changes in probable outcomes, how would or should a so called DI wager:
start with the probability tab and change the values as seen below
when completed, click on the advantage tab and dream away!
How can you NOT bet the 12 or hop the 8 (6,2 and 5,3)
and how much winnings over 4 days?
let the female shooter do her thing and she should win MILLIONS easily!
easy
Sally
Oh, by her roll probability distribution
you easily have about a 90% chance of winning your bet, given you all let the girl do her thing
of course the other side seems to think they will win with about an 82% probability
looks to be a coin flip
I say she wins!
Quote: mustangsallyWinCraps can answer your question
start with the probability tab and change the values as seen below
when completed, click on the advantage tab and dream away!
How can you NOT bet the 12 or hop the 8 (6,2 and 5,3)
and how much winnings over 4 days?
let the female shooter do her thing and she should win MILLIONS easily!
easy
Sally
Oh, by her roll probability distribution
you easily have about a 90% chance of winning your bet, given you all let the girl do her thing
of course the other side seems to think they will win with about an 82% probability
looks to be a coin flip
I say she wins!
Sally, what is the probability that a random roller would happen to complete both legs of the wager within a 360 roll trial?
Quote: SOOPOOShe must roll BOTH (28 or fewer '4s'), and (52 or more '8s'), in 360 rolls
Maybe I'm getting senile, but I thought there were posts about exactly 29 fours being a push.
However, let's forget that for now.
The probability of less than 28.5 fours and greater than 51.5 eights in the same 360 rolls is 0.178075304, according to my calculations.
Quote: WizardMaybe I'm getting senile, but I thought there were posts about exactly 29 fours being a push.
However, let's forget that for now.
The probability of less than 28.5 fours and greater than 51.5 eights in the same 360 rolls is 0.178075304, according to my calculations.
The two events have a correlation. (e.g., if you roll an eight, you do not roll a four). Is it included in the calculation, or is the cross over negligible?
Quote: AyecarumbaThe two events have a correlation. (e.g., if you roll an eight, you do not roll a four). Is it included in the calculation, or is the cross over negligible?
Agreed, they have a positive correlation. Fewer fours means more rolls to work with to get enough eights. I factored all that in. I didn't bother to explain my work because:
1. Somebody will probably say I misunderstood the bet again.
2. I'd lay good odds no challenge ever gets off the ground.
Quote: WizardAgreed, they have a positive correlation. Fewer fours means more rolls to work with to get enough eights. I factored all that in. I didn't bother to explain my work because:
1. Somebody will probably say I misunderstood the bet again.
2. I'd lay good odds no challenge ever gets off the ground.
SOOPOO will not share. If you get any action on the NO, can I get a piece ? Please. Pretty Please.
Or you are not very good at reading and comprehension (not what I'm saying) this was what was said to me when I made this mistake.Quote: WizardMaybe I'm getting senile, but I thought there were posts about exactly 29 fours being a push.
However, let's forget that for now.
The probability of less than 28.5 fours and greater than 51.5 eights in the same 360 rolls is 0.178075304, according to my calculations.
I come up with the same result in Excel as the Wizard did of 0.178075304Quote: AyecarumbaSally, what is the probability that a random roller would happen to complete both legs of the wager within a 360 roll trial?
17.81% looks good as it matches my sims too
using the EXP() and the GAMMALN()
as Excel can not calculate for example 360!/358! (360*359) using FACT()
how it looks in me Excel
Just 8,555 sums of the multinomial probability distribution
took about 58 seconds to arrive at the value (I have done this before)
see
Sally
I still say she wins the challenge even if shes wears no makeup ;)
$5 backs me up
Quote: MaxSwelleAs I previously stated, the table is not a problem and I'm sure it will be to your satisfaction. Also, we will use a brand sleeve of casino dice (feel free to provide them). I am in communication with her in regards to the date(s) and any other variables that must be addressed on her end.
Any word on the shooter's availability? I would like to pick the day or days so I can make golf plans on the other days......
And thanks Wiz and Sally for your math work...... appreciate it.....
Quote: SOOPOOStill waiting for a response........
I hope the deafening silence is only temporary, and this challenge actually goes on. It's not a total lock for SOOPOO. Random will probably lose 6 days in a week, but it could be day 7...
Quote: SOOPOOStill waiting for a response........
Ditto, Mr. Poo and I apologize for my delay. I'm waiting for her to accept the terms set forth. Admittedly, I made the bet with you after you knocked a block off of my shoulder; before I even discussed it with her. She did initially agree but then her brothers had a few choice words...now I await response from the shooter.
Quote: SOOPOONot that it really matters, but I thought you were the money behind the shooter; that she was just going to be the 'arm'... Anyway, I'm still ready to proceed if you are.
Sure it matters, and yes I am the "money" behind my mouth. Ostensibly, the concern on her(their) part is exposure; from what I gather.
Quote: djatcThis sounds like the grade school fight between 2 guys in which one guy is ready to go and the other guy is finding lots of excuses to avoid this altogether once he found out how math works and has to get lucky to win a bet.
a bit early to conclude that, but if you get a woman digging in her heels on something like this, it can take a mule team to drag her in
Quote: odiousgambita bit early to conclude that, but if you get a woman digging in her heels on something like this, it can take a mule team to drag her in
If she has half a brain she will refuse. No long term +ev in it for her.
Quote: djatcThis sounds like the grade school fight between 2 guys in which one guy is ready to go and the other guy is finding lots of excuses to avoid this altogether once he found out how math works and has to get lucky to win a bet.
Buddy, the math is certainly not lost on me nor am I oblivious to the recoil one sustains, especially on this forum, when in agreement with the possibility of dice influence. Now, add to it the fact that I'm willing to wager a few bucks as a proponent of the same. Lastly, the third party, who happens to be my shooter, has reservation and concern; man o' man o' Manischewitz- I bet you leaked in your underoos while feverishly typing your snide remark. Calm down and let's see if things will unfold, my little record spinning three wheeler.
Sounds like a personal insult to me.Quote: MaxSwelleI bet you leaked in your underoos
As I predicted, this will never happen. Excuses, excuses it was a sham from the start.
Quote: AxelWolfSounds like a personal insult to me.
As I predicted, this will never happen. Excuses, excuses it was a sham from the start.
Well, I've been banned for less.
Quote: AxelWolfSounds like a personal insult to me.
As I predicted, this will never happen. Excuses, excuses it was a sham from the start.
Just curious, if you watched someone exert influence over a pair of dice; I mean you were convinced that your eyes did not fool you...would you practice or attempt to replicate what you saw? Humor me and answer seriously.
Quote: AxelWolfSounds like a personal insult to me.
As I predicted, this will never happen. Excuses, excuses it was a sham from the start.
1. Are you a professional gambler? 2. Is your entire income earned from AP? 3. Is your net worth (8) figures or (9) figures or more?
Rephrase the question. I don't get what your asking.Quote: MaxSwelleJust curious, if you watched someone exert influence over a pair of dice; I mean you were convinced that your eyes did not fool you...would you practice or attempt to replicate what you saw? Humor me and answer seriously.
If your curious if I have ever dabbled in DI, Yes. way back before it was popularized by Mr Dominator faking Vegas tv series on it.
Shared a table briefly.
Quote: AxelWolfRephrase the question. I don't get what your asking.
If your curious if I have ever dabbled in DI, Yes. way back before it was popularized by Mr Dominator faking Vegas tv series on it.
Shared a table briefly.
Have you ever practiced using a specific grip and toss with an expected outcome other than random???
I CAN'T DI, that's my point, NO ONE CAN. Especially not your gal pal.Quote: MaxSwelleSo called AP's say things like- "if you can influence the dice then you should hit several casinos with every dime that could earned, borrowed or stolen and make millions". Well, such life hacks should be heeded by themselves. Hatchet, my dude, tell me about the time that you were bangin' on all 8 cylinders in your AP realm and made millions and millions and millions. How and why do you have soooo much time-I mean, 2 in the morning type time, to post on message boards. You're an AP, man! OR, are you bored silly with all of your AP earnings? Swear to your God, I'm curious.
Show me that post.Quote: MaxSwelletell me about the time that you were bangin' on all 8 cylinders in your AP realm and made millions and millions and millions. .
Quote: MaxSwelleBuddy, the math is certainly not lost on me nor am I oblivious to the recoil one sustains, especially on this forum, when in agreement with the possibility of dice influence. Now, add to it the fact that I'm willing to wager a few bucks as a proponent of the same. Lastly, the third party, who happens to be my shooter, has reservation and concern; man o' man o' Manischewitz- I bet you leaked in your underoos while feverishly typing your snide remark. Calm down and let's see if things will unfold, my little record spinning three wheeler.
Cool story is the bet ready yet? Or are you going to keep wasting SOOPOO's and everyone's time?
Quote: djatcCool story is the bet ready yet? Or are you going to keep wasting SOOPOO's and everyone's time?
From what I gather the girl with the golden touch and her associates have some concerns Mr. Poo may be working for the (D.I.I.U)
Dice Influence Investigation Unit.
lolQuote: rainmanFrom what I gather the girl with the golden touch and her associates have some concerns Mr. Poo may be working for the (D.I.I.U)
Dice Influence Investigation Unit.
more like delusional imagination
I can respect that. Some people keep up the sherede's forever.Quote: MaxSwelleSorry for wasting everyone's time. Sorry to anyone that I may have been rude towards. Initially it was my intention to be insulting because I felt insulted and felt like my integrity was in question. If I were to empathize I could see the frustration held by others. I'll stop posting and will simply watch from the sidelines. It was fun, albeit shortlived. Bye for now. Ack ack.
