How should my "friend" bet, considering...?
360 throws is a ton f*ck amount of throws in a session. Even with the breaks. I remember doing the 200 for my challenge where yes I failed.
My advice to you is that for every good shot your shooter makes, she'll have a bad or worse shot. Not only will her physical performance be questioned but also
the mental. The mental is of course the most important. With that said I hope she is ready for that. Best of luck to both HER and SOOPOO. Wish I could be there to
see it go down.
Yay! fight the power!Quote: beachbumbabsOk. Mike tells me this is a "guy thing" and part of negotiating a bet like this. So Max is un-suspended with my apologies.
Quote: AxelWolfYay! fight the power!
Really? Thanks, brah...lol. I give it another look, eat crow, and you rub it in? Remind me why we're friends, exactly?
Come on now,you know I jokeQuote: beachbumbabsReally? Thanks, brah...lol. I give it another look, eat crow, and you rub it in? Remind me why we're friends, exactly?
You can't take that seriously, Its fun to razz you a bit (I seiously think you do a GREAT job on here. I even think you got unfairly treated back during photogate and truly felt bad for you during that situation) I would have suspended him just because (im sure its coming anyways). I know you have a good scene of humor and didn't think I needed a smiley face.
If I didn't razz you I would be more concerned.
I have personal motives for him not to be suspended. I'm sure it wont matter anyways I think he is just trying to stir up S***.
It's ok, you may have costed me an imaginary $1250.Quote: beachbumbabsSorry - I was giving it right back to you, Axel. I do know you joke. I stuck the lol in there, but it didn't take. I prefer to give it as good as I get, and we both understand it's all a ration of crap. It's all good.
1 out of 100 guys might actually make a dumb bet. If you break that down this may have cost me Tree Fiddy.
If this is real, assuming I get a real good bet and win. I will give half of it to the forum members(some kind of drawing or lottery) in order to use and make a new account on Any of his casino affiliates or some kind of poker tournament where the winner splits with Mike.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's ok, you may have costed me an imaginary $1250.
"costed"? Umm? Anyway fellas, I'm back so where were we? No worries BBB, you simply made a judment call. I'm good with it and respect how you handled it after the fact.
Im willing to put up some cash for a bet, I would take half of or even all of the $2500 if Mr poo does not want it. you suggested assuming I believe I have a nice edge. I need to know exactly what you are claiming. I'm still confused on what bet you want to make. It seems you are saying she has like a 70% edge and will get about 50% fewer 4s then she statistically should during 360 rolls?Quote: MaxSwelle"costed"? Umm? Anyway fellas, I'm back so where were we? No worries BBB, you simply made a judment call. I'm good with it and respect how you handled it after the fact.
Once we do this, We can all put the money in escrow with a trusted forum member. I suggest The Wizard, BBB, Mission. Oh and how can I forget Lem66 Sorry if I left anyone out.
I don't want to spend 3 days negotiating terms this should be cut and dry. Don't keep trying to move the numbers up or start making impossible requests(not that you have but, I have seen this before) the point is, you are claiming something and you want to prove it. Your goal should not to get great odds but to prove you don't need them because she can beat them significantly.
Quote: AxelWolfIts simple, tell me how many 4s or less she will make in 360 rolls and how much you want to bet that she can do it. Once we establish that, I will say yes lets move forward with the terms and logistics with MR Poo.
Once we do this, We can all put the money in escrow with a trusted forum member. I suggest The Wizard, BBB, Mission. Oh and how can I forget Lem66 Sorry if I left anyone out.
I don't want to spend 3 days negotiating terms this should be cut and dry. Don't keep trying to move the numbers up or start making impossible requests(not that you have but, I have seen this before) the point is, you are claiming something and you want to prove it. Your goal should not to get great odds but to prove you don't need them because she can beat them significantly.
Axel, you must have missed my previous post which summarizes the exact bet. It will be resummarized in the next post again.
Quote: SOOPOOSo we have a deal? $2500 put up by you, $2500 put up by me. She must roll 360 times. Standard Las Vegas craps rules. She must toss the dice from one hand, they must travel in the air and hit the back wall. She can stand where a normal dice thrower can stand. If she rolls BOTH 28 or fewer 4's, AND 52 or more 8's, you win. If she fails on either number, I win.
Once you respond affirmatively I'll speak with Ahigh.
No cameras is fine with me. too.
This is the bet, Axel.
Also, since Max was kind enough to offer to pay my airfare, maybe he could make that offer to Nickolay instead, as a previous post by him expressed a sincere interest in being there! Max-- Nickolay is an above board guy.
And Max, whenever I make these challenges, win lose or draw, I will treat you and your sister to dinner after the event. It will be a yummy meal (you will have to dig through the HotBlondChallenge thread to understand).
And BBB, of course he was insulting me, but so what? If you really analyze this, my saying his sister can't do what he claims she can do, is essentially me calling him a liar, right? It's what we do to every system seller, alleged dice influencer, etc....
Why 28? I thought it was 18? Isnt the goal to prove something that is really going to show something interesting?Quote: SOOPOOTwo more things.... I am still hoping Ahigh will let us use his beautiful table. I know it would be time consuming, but your table gives my opponent the best chance to succeed, as there won't be other players, chips in the way, a guy nudging the table every time he takes a swig from his Red Bull, etc....Maybe we could rent it from you?
Also, since Max was kind enough to offer to pay my airfare, maybe he could make that offer to Nickolay instead, as a previous post by him expressed a sincere interest in being there! Max-- Nickolay is an above board guy.
And Max, whenever I make these challenges, win lose or draw, I will treat you and your sister to dinner after the event. It will be a yummy meal (you will have to dig through the HotBlondChallenge thread to understand).
And BBB, of course he was insulting me, but so what? If you really analyze this, my saying his sister can't do what he claims she can do, is essentially me calling him a liar, right? It's what we do to every system seller, alleged dice influencer, etc....
Quote: AxelWolfWhy 28? I thought it was 18? Isnt the goal to prove something that is really going to show something interesting?
You are not good at reading comprehension or retention, Axel! You are correct. My initial challenge was based on what Max alleged. I used the percentages Max posted, gave him a small cushion, and offered a bet. Max basically countered with a bet offer that shows a bare minimum better performance from a random roller, one that would happen probably around 47% of the time. But since Max has made the bet that his sister will have to do two 47% events at the same time, and they are only very slightly correlated, she will succeed 2/9 times, but fail 7/9. We are being offered even money on that claim. This is your best AP opportunity of the year, if it ever comes to fruition.
We all know that if she succeeds and rolls 53 8's over 360 rolls, when 50 is the expected number, that this will prove absolutely nothing. Same for the 28 or fewer 4's. But if that occurs, I will gladly pay and congratulate the winner.....
I didn't read the part if she failed either event.Quote: SOOPOOYou are not good at reading comprehension or retention, Axel! You are correct. My initial challenge was based on what Max alleged. I used the percentages Max posted, gave him a small cushion, and offered a bet. Max basically countered with a bet offer that shows a bare minimum better performance from a random roller, one that would happen probably around 47% of the time. But since Max has made the bet that his sister will have to do two 47% events at the same time, and they are only very slightly correlated, she will succeed 2/9 times, but fail 7/9. We are being offered even money on that claim. This is your best AP opportunity of the year, if it ever comes to fruition.
We all know that if she succeeds and rolls 53 8's over 360 rolls, when 50 is the expected number, that this will prove absolutely nothing. Same for the 28 or fewer 4's. But if that occurs, I will gladly pay and congratulate the winner.....
Quote: AxelWolfI didn't read the part if she failed either event.
I don't know Nickolay, however upon joining WoV he impressed me with his hospitality. Congrats on your best bet made thus far. So, Señor Poo, with Ahigh's refusal to host it looks as if I will be providing venue accommodations. Agreed?
Any casino will do.Quote: MaxSwelleApologies Axel, I meant to quote SOOPOO.
Quote: AxelWolfAny casino will do.
Explain the logistics, if you would, and then please put away your crowbar as this wager is between myself and SOOPOO. However, thanks for you input and please remain in the stands.
If we do it at my house, I would be spending as much on food for everyone here as it would cost for the house edge for $100 on the pass line for a private table. Double the edge and you can kill the volatility too.
The Silverton will set up a private table for you with enough advance notice and a $100 minimum bet requirement.
There's zero motivation for me to host if there is no film.
In addition I don't have the time to do this before G2E is over, and after that I want a vacation.
Quote: MaxSwelleHow about Encore or Wynn. Either would be ideal, I'm sure.
Those places are ok by me. You know the dates I'll be in town. I have a few local friends that I make plans with, once those firm up I'll keep the rest of my time open for this challenge. We can work on the money part later. I have a track record of paying off my gambling debts here, in the 4 figure range from the HB challenge. But you don't know me, and I don't know you. I would be happy to let Mike (The Wizard) hold our respective $2500 prior to the challenge starting. If this will really happen, I am hoping to get him to attend as well. (October 15-19)
Quote: AhighYeah. You could absolutely get a private table to do this if someone was willing to put $100 on the pass line for every roll in order to rent the table. On average, it will only cost you $50 an hour. It would still be better to do it in a casino if you don't want film.
If we do it at my house, I would be spending as much on food for everyone here as it would cost for the house edge for $100 on the pass line for a private table. Double the edge and you can kill the volatility too.
The Silverton will set up a private table for you with enough advance notice and a $100 minimum bet requirement.
There's zero motivation for me to host if there is no film.
In addition I don't have the time to do this before G2E is over, and after that I want a vacation.
If you change your mind I am sure Max and I would split the food bill. I wouldn't want it to cost you anything. And come on, Aaron, aren't you at least intrigued that someone will put up a decent amount of money believing in DI?
I'm pretty sure this is a few weeks after g2E.
Why do you care who the bet comes from? I though the goal is to prove something and get paid to do so. Backing off already I see.Quote: MaxSwelleExplain the logistics, if you would, and then please put away your crowbar as this wager is between myself and SOOPOO. However, thanks for you input and please remain in the stands.
logistics are easy, Confirm the bet. Send money to trusted forum member for holding. Pick a date, time and casino(Ahigh made a good suggestion). Have her shoot the dice for how ever many sessions it takes. Someone log the number of rolls and results, you confirm the log entries.
Honestly I don't think some supposed DIs could make a non random shot into a big pile of sand.
Quote: AxelWolfWhy do you care who the bet comes from? I though the goal is to prove something and get paid to do so. Backing off already I see.
logistics are easy, Confirm the bet. Send money to trusted forum member for holding. Pick a date, time and casino(Ahigh made a good suggestion). Have her shoot the dice for how ever many sessions it takes. Someone log the number of rolls and results, you confirm the log entries.
Honestly I don't think some supposed DIs could make a non random shot into a big pile of sand.
The bet is between me and Max. We will work out the details. We will post final plans here. Axel, you are a real 'buttinsky'!!!!!!
I was posting in the thread from the begging. I was going to give half back to the forum members and Mike. He also said congratulations to me on the best bet. I assumed that meant he was fine with me taking action.Quote: SOOPOOThe bet is between me and Max. We will work out the details. We will post final plans here. Axel, you are a real 'buttinsky'!!!!!!
I assumed he came at you with a big bet bluffing thinking you would just back down as I already said.
But OK work out the details and make the bet. It just seems strange that he cares how much or who bets what.
TBH i don't care about the Value of the bet. I just didn't want to see a back and forth and stalling for 2 months with everything set and then people back out.
I suggest getting the money in escrow ASAP. I would put up my share up as fast as I could contact whoever might be holding it.
Quote: AxelWolfWhy do you care who the bet comes from? I though the goal is to prove something and get paid to do so. Backing off already I see.
logistics are easy, Confirm the bet. Send money to trusted forum member for holding. Pick a date, time and casino(Ahigh made a good suggestion). Have her shoot the dice for how ever many sessions it takes. Someone log the number of rolls and results, you confirm the log entries.
Honestly I don't think some supposed DIs could make a non random shot into a big pile of sand.
The bet was suggested by ME to SOOPOO, based on HIS comments addressed to ME about MY friend. Follow the thread for clarification. Had any arrangements been made with you then your input would have certainly been well received; and expected for that matter. Even helpful input would have been appreciated. I understand, clearly, your position as it relates to the possibility of one influencing dice, but when negotiations are taking place it's advised to refrain from a position of passion. It turned me off as you poked your lips through a hole in the wall and yelled disparaging comments and notions of something that "costed" you $1250. You are respected on this forum from what I gather, however all I have seen from you thus far has been the actions of a "busy body". Your man SOOPOO seems to agree; you have hen like qualities. A regular "buttinsky". Man, I'd be bothered if my friend thought of me in such a manner. With ALL of the respect that you deserve, stay in your lane and trash talk from there, if you must, or go find your own wager against some wacky DI guy; I think I saw a team of them tossing Hardways into the sand at Lake Mead.
Quote: SOOPOOIf you change your mind I am sure Max and I would split the food bill. I wouldn't want it to cost you anything. And come on, Aaron, aren't you at least intrigued that someone will put up a decent amount of money believing in DI?
I'm pretty sure this is a few weeks after g2E.
I'm intrigued, but I have done this before and it is very time consuming for me to set all of this up, and I generally take a day off from work for the day of and I don't have that luxury right now. Max had been asking me to get involved before this whole thing even came up and I had to tell him the same thing. I just don't have time.
It's just a sad reality.
Even when we had Nickolay for the last challenge, I was doing all the work and none of the dice throwing. This would be the same. If I was going to go through all the work again, I would be throwing the dice this time around. And actually thinking back to that, when I was throwing nobody else was doing the work otherwise people would have known that I actually won the bet except nobody else wanted to do the work part when I was doing the fun part.
Bottom line: too much work and no benefit for me, and I would be risking too much at my job to do this.
Quote: MaxSwelleSOOPOO, it is unrealistic that this take place in a casino. However, would you be opposed to a local dealers school as a venue?
As long as someone I trust brings the dice to be used. I am not concerned about the table.
And Ahigh, remember, you can always reconsider! I'll of course offer you the same bet as Max if you want it.
Quote: SOOPOOAs long as someone I trust brings the dice to be used. I am not concerned about the table.
And Ahigh, remember, you can always reconsider! I'll of course offer you the same bet as Max if you want it.
Perfect, your dice thrown on my table.
Sounds good. Oh... your sister can take as many practice throws as she wants, as long as it is clear that they don't count for the bet.Quote: MaxSwellePerfect, your dice thrown on my table.
Quote: SOOPOOSounds good. Oh... your sister can take as many practice throws as she wants, as long as it is clear that they don't count for the bet.
Also, she is not my sister. I understand how you may have interpreted that from one of my posts. She is a close friend and her brother(s) taught her the shot.
Any forum members interested in some side action? If you believe Max's friend can accomplish the feat, I will take the same side as Mr. Poo (LOL).
Quote: AcesAndEightsThis is exciting.
Any forum members interested in some side action? If you believe Max's friend can accomplish the feat, I will take the same side as Mr. Poo (LOL).
I'll take that bet if you are willing to give me 7:2 which I believe is the fair odds that SOOPOO calculated. Since I'm too lazy to compute the exact odds myself, got to keep the amount relatively low but this seems like a fair ball park number. Obviously, I don't think Max's friend will be able to pull it off either, but willing to root for it with the right price.
Quote: MidwestAPI'll take that bet if you are willing to give me 7:2 which I believe is the fair odds that SOOPOO calculated. Since I'm too lazy to compute the exact odds myself, got to keep the amount relatively low but this seems like a fair ball park number. Obviously, I don't think Max's friend will be able to pull it off either, but willing to root for it with the right price.
Ladies and gentlemen.....
I am going to ask all to please refrain from the side betting until Max and I finalize the time and place and other details. To me one big detail is where the money will be held in advance of this challenge, and who will be the referee. If you remember from Ahigh's house, there was some weirdo who just put the dice down on the table in front of himself on a defined number, and praised himself on his abilities to hit the number. I am hoping Mike will be able to attend and referee the event. I will pm him and alert him to this thread.
Quote: MidwestAPI'll take that bet if you are willing to give me 7:2 which I believe is the fair odds that SOOPOO calculated. Since I'm too lazy to compute the exact odds myself, got to keep the amount relatively low but this seems like a fair ball park number. Obviously, I don't think Max's friend will be able to pull it off either, but willing to root for it with the right price.
I haven't run the math yet personally, other than to trust Mr. POO has the best of it at even money (assuming no influence by the thrower). So I'll have to hold off on offering anything other than even money. We may be able to agree on a line though.
Two dice will be rolled 360 times.
If there are 28 or fewer fours MaxSwelle shall win. A 29 is a push. 30 or more is a win for SOOPOO.
Sorry if it has already been done, as there are a host of members who could do this in their sleep.
You can use Excel to get the pertinent probabilities quite easily. Please note the probability of rolling a total of four with two dice is 3/36.
Probability of 28 or less fours in 360 rolls =BINOMDIST(28,360,3/36,1) = 0.396901154.
Probability of exactly 29 fours in 360 rolls =BINOMDIST(29,360,3/36,0) = 0.0756335.
Probability of 30 or more fours in 360 rolls = 1-BINOMDIST(29,360,3/36,1) = 0.527465346.
So, assuming a random roller, SOOPOO's side has an expected value of 0.130564192.
Quote: WizardI have been asked to remark on the odds of this bet. Here are the rules, as I understand them:
Two dice will be rolled 360 times.
If there are 28 or fewer fours MaxSwelle shall win. A 29 is a push. 30 or more is a win for SOOPOO.
Sorry if it has already been done, as there are a host of members who could do this in their sleep.
You can use Excel to get the pertinent probabilities quite easily. Please note the probability of rolling a total of four with two dice is 3/36.
Probability of 28 or less fours in 360 rolls =BINOMDIST(28,360,3/36,1) = 0.396901154.
Probability of exactly 29 fours in 360 rolls =BINOMDIST(29,360,3/36,0) = 0.0756335.
Probability of 30 or more fours in 360 rolls = 1-BINOMDIST(29,360,3/36,1) = 0.527465346.
So, assuming a random roller, SOOPOO's side has an expected value of 0.130564192.
Quote: SOOPOOYou are not good at reading comprehension or retention, Axel! You are correct. My initial challenge was based on what Max alleged. I used the percentages Max posted, gave him a small cushion, and offered a bet. Max basically countered with a bet offer that shows a bare minimum better performance from a random roller, one that would happen probably around 47% of the time. But since Max has made the bet that his sister will have to do two 47% events at the same time, and they are only very slightly correlated, she will succeed 2/9 times, but fail 7/9. We are being offered even money on that claim. This is your best AP opportunity of the year, if it ever comes to fruition.
We all know that if she succeeds and rolls 53 8's over 360 rolls, when 50 is the expected number, that this will prove absolutely nothing. Same for the 28 or fewer 4's. But if that occurs, I will gladly pay and congratulate the winner.....
The OP has to win 2 different outcomes not just the 4;s bet I also thought it was the 4s bet and i got bashed for thinking this.Quote: WizardNot that anyone asked, but for this bet to have zero expected value the probability of rolling a four would be 0.080941734. With a random roll, the probability is 0.083333333.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI haven't run the math yet personally, other than to trust Mr. POO has the best of it at even money (assuming no influence by the thrower). So I'll have to hold off on offering anything other than even money. We may be able to agree on a line though.
I'll respect SOOPOO's request to stay quite about any side bets, consider my original offer void.
Quote: SOOPOOSo we have a deal? $2500 put up by you, $2500 put up by me. She must roll 360 times. Standard Las Vegas craps rules. She must toss the dice from one hand, they must travel in the air and hit the back wall. She can stand where a normal dice thrower can stand. If she rolls BOTH 28 or fewer 4's, AND 52 or more 8's, you win. If she fails on either number, I win.
Once you respond affirmatively I'll speak with Ahigh.
No cameras is fine with me. too.
Mike, in doing your analysis of the bet, you neglected entirely the part about rolling 8's. Please read above. Also, 29 4's is a loss for her, not a tie. I think your calculation had 29 as a tie.
Quote: SOOPOOMike, in doing your analysis of the bet, you neglected entirely the part about rolling 8's. Please read above. Also, 29 4's is a loss for her, not a tie. I think your calculation had 29 as a tie.
So that I don't have to rummage through ten pages of posts, can somebody please quote the eights rule or give me a direct link to the post about it.
Also, when sending me a PM about a specific post, please include a link to it. You can get the link by clicking "permalink" on any post.
